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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 446

Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/8/2007 1:20:48 PM | message detail
Lettuce Kefka. That is all. Anyway, another question. Did we ever figure out WHAT THE HELL WAS GOING ON with Sonic/Luigi last year? Sonic didn't boost, and Luigi rose, so... Was it some weird SFF thing? A fluke? Did Smurf rally his furry friends?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/8/2007 1:24:51 PM | message detail
hm. I've always thought Squall was right where he was.
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ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 1:54:13 PM | message detail
Well, I think Raiden would do massively better against Snake today. Hate's gone down big time, and the MGS4 hype is all in Raiden's favor. Who comes to watch the Snake part of those trailers? Give me Raiden to just barely avoid the tripling against Snake in a rematch. Yeap.

I'm not entirely sure about avoiding the tripling. Snake is still by far the preferred of the two -- preferred of any MGS character, even. I could see somewhere between 22% - 25%, though. If he did manage to avoid a tripling, that'd be pretty amazing, especially with Snake now being so much stronger and supported than Snake in 03.


Here's an interesting question regarding Raiden: Does he perform differently if he gets a MGS4 style pic as opposed to a MGS2 style pic?

Definitely. Cyborg Raiden would be a big plus for him over the MGS2 design of him. He's much more badass and has that "mass appeal." I'd imagine that every picture Raiden got in the contest would actually be some variation of the MGS4 cybernetic Raiden. He's got full body shots, half body/head shots, and action shots in the MGS4 style.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
therealmnm | Posted 8/8/2007 1:59:59 PM | message detail
it's just like TP Zelda was fine (and then some) when she went against Vivi.

Huh? Was TP Zelda supposed to be a hinderance or something? If anything, her TP look should have BOOSTED her given the hype of that game. Wouldn't Young Zelda vs. Snake fit in as a better example?
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/8/2007 2:06:05 PM | message detail
I've just realized that 90% of the time I spend here now, is when I'm high and just feel like listening to music in epic fashion. Aww yeah, perfect bracket here I come.

Too much italics? Not enough.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
trannyscience | Posted 8/8/2007 2:09:44 PM | message detail
Huh? Was TP Zelda supposed to be a hinderance or something? If anything, her TP look should have BOOSTED her given the hype of that game. Wouldn't Young Zelda vs. Snake fit in as a better example?

well, the idea was that the game wasn't actually out yet. Zelda was still recognizable, too, just like Old Snake.

ZSS is a different story.
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xexyz
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2007 2:12:02 PM | message detail
Because Mega Man at least has a chance at being weaker than his x-stat value, unlike Crono. Crono would certainly have to lose ground in relation to non-NNers, but it's possible Mega Man would've been weaker than Vincent or someone a year ago.

But we saw how big a dive Crono took between 2k4 and 2k5 against Mario. Then we saw him again in 2k6 where he dropped further by losing to a Sonic who couldn't have boosted nearly enough to cover the difference from 2k5.

Both of these drops were alongside huge increases in votals.

I think it's safe to say that right now Crono/Sonic/Mega are equal enough to have interesting matches, but if we see another votal increase, I'd put Mega and Sonic comfortably above Crono, and Crono being the one at risk of breaking Noble Nine tradition.

We're finally seeing the CT downfall that people have been calling for since 2k2

Unless of course we get a remake of some sort.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MnMZero | Posted 8/8/2007 2:12:43 PM | message detail
Old Snake is a tad more drastic a change than simply a new costume change for Zelda. Not in terms of being recognized, but it still gives a "WTF?" factor for those seeing it for the first time. Shouldn't really affect voting that much though unless it's someone who outright hates Snake's new old look.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 2:14:31 PM | message detail
I think it's the idea that the picture was from a game not yet released, just like Old Snake. Thing about that is... it was VERY obvious that TP Zelda was... y'know, Zelda. If you showed me a picture of Old Snake before the first MGS4 trailer, there's a chance I'd have no idea who he was. It's hardly the same extent of ZSS, but it gives one a moment to pause.

Thing is, Samus has a LOT more baggage with ZSS (a far less iconic name, picture completely different from her suit pics, the fact that a large portion of her fans know her from SSB/are completely oblivious). Snake has to go off name recognition half the time as is considering how bad his pics usually are, and you can't really fault an MGS4 pic when it has so much going for it... like looking halfway decent.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/8/2007 2:14:34 PM | message detail
I still don't think MM dropped anyway near the amount everyone does last year... I really doubt he would have lost to anyone outside the N9 last year, and I doubt he will this year.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 2:17:06 PM | message detail
But we saw how big a dive Crono took between 2k4 and 2k5 against Mario. Then we saw him again in 2k6 where he dropped further by losing to a Sonic who couldn't have boosted nearly enough to cover the difference from 2k5.

"Crono (2005c) VS Sonic (2005c)

Crono has a strength of 39.87.
Sonic has a strength of 38.50.

Crono wins with 51.72% of the vote!
A win of 3,481 with 101,299 total votes cast."

...

Both of these drops were alongside huge increases in votals.

A flimsy correlation that doesn't prove any causation.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
MnMZero | Posted 8/8/2007 2:18:34 PM | message detail
But we saw how big a dive Crono took between 2k4 and 2k5 against Mario. Then we saw him again in 2k6 where he dropped further by losing to a Sonic who couldn't have boosted nearly enough to cover the difference from 2k5.

That was more Mario bombing in 2k4 than Crono taking a dive in 2k5. In fact, it was agreed upon that Crono in 2k5 was consistent enough to base the stats that year off of him.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2007 2:18:52 PM | message detail
Good stuff EC

Now just to convince everyone else in this topic.

And since we're on the topic, after Kingdom Hearts 3 and assuming no big Zelda games, Sora or Ganondorf?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 2:20:30 PM | message detail
And since we're on the topic, after Kingdom Hearts 3 and assuming no big Zelda games, Sora or Ganondorf?

The whole idea of assuming "no big Zelda games" is crazy.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2007 2:21:24 PM | message detail
I thought Crono beat Mega Man by more than that

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MnMZero | Posted 8/8/2007 2:21:26 PM | message detail
Eh, I don't think Sora has what it takes to take down any of the near-elites. KH2 may have gained him a ton of fans, but he still has plenty of people who simply don't care for the "kid with the clown shoes". I can't see him taking down Ganondorf, Auron, or anybody else around where he ranked.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 2:22:03 PM | message detail
I still don't think MM dropped anyway near the amount everyone does last year... I really doubt he would have lost to anyone outside the N9 last year, and I doubt he will this year.

One - you're hardly unique in that sentiment. For all the talk of MM dropping I have yet to see virtually anyone say they'll take a non-Noble over him, and that's with this year putting the pack closer to the NN than it's ever been.

Two - Mega Man not dropping a considerable amount - or at the very least not being weaker than Crono - implies a lot of nonsensical things, not the least of which Sora beating Auron. I'm sorry, but if you think that kid is stronger than post-KH2 Auron, directly or indirectly, you're delusional - and I'm not gonna take you seriously.
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ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 2:22:07 PM | message detail
Agree with what mnm said, too.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
trannyscience | Posted 8/8/2007 2:22:31 PM | message detail
I wanna see Sora/Aeris II. or Sora/Tidus.

just out of curiosity.
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xexyz
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2007 2:22:43 PM | message detail
Well, look how long it took them to put out TP after Majora's Mask

KH3 will be out before 2010

New Zelda won't be until at least 2012

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 2:23:24 PM | message detail
I like how you pull random dates out of nowhere. It's cool.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/8/2007 2:24:30 PM | message detail
I never said MM isn't overrated, I said I don't think he's nearly overrated to the extent everyone else believes he is. I've posted my stats here a couple of times, and the consensus has been that everyone feels like MM, and his division is slightly too high. Am I taking Sora to beat Auron? Not quite, but I do think it's a near even match.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
MnMZero | Posted 8/8/2007 2:25:07 PM | message detail
Well, look how long it took them to put out TP after Majora's Mask

So the Wind Waker doesn't exist now?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 2:26:22 PM | message detail
Not quite, but I do think it's a near even match.

And that's just as bad. The idea is simply ludicrous.
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trannyscience | Posted 8/8/2007 2:27:14 PM | message detail
even if Sora and Auron were indirectly equal (which they're not!), Auron would beat Sora down.
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xexyz
PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/8/2007 2:28:54 PM | message detail
I don't see how it's just as bad... considering one situation would make Sora is a good deal stronger than the other, but ok.

I do think Auron would SFF Sora, but indirectly I only give Auron the slightest of edges.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2007 2:36:47 PM | message detail
So the Wind Waker doesn't exist now?

Unfortunately it still exists, but I don't consider it a big Zelda release since it was almost universally hated. And the handheld games aren't considered big members of the franchise.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/8/2007 2:37:37 PM | message detail
So what you're saying is they might release a Zelda before that date, but if they do, it will totally suck and not count? Awesome!

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 2:38:38 PM | message detail
I don't consider it a big Zelda release since it was almost universally hated.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1655

That's what it is.
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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 2:39:33 PM | message detail
I do think Auron would SFF Sora, but indirectly I only give Auron the slightest of edges.

And again, that's just willfully ignoring the obvious. Compare Auron/Alucard to Sora/Alucard and tell me that Sora makes that much of a difference in one year (or Alucard drops THAT much). They've never been in the same league, and they're not now.

You don't like that (or think that's enough)? Try Bowser = Ryu then. Or Kratos > Alucard with as much as Alucard beat him one year before.

Oh, and can't forget: Axel > Prince of Persia
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Commit it to memory.
consolefreak | Posted 8/8/2007 2:41:47 PM | message detail
And that's just as bad. The idea is simply ludicrous.

I wouldn't exactly call it 'ludicrous', unless you're contemplating Auron to beat Mega Man.

Head-on, it's ridiculous. But indirectly? Perfectly possible.
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MnMZero | Posted 8/8/2007 2:42:42 PM | message detail
Unfortunately it still exists, but I don't consider it a big Zelda release since it was almost universally hated. And the handheld games aren't considered big members of the franchise.

What the hell? The Zelda game of the Nintendo Gamecube doesn't classify as a big release, yet you bring up Majora's Mask which was not only released at the tail end of the N64's life cycle but has just as many if not more "haters" as the Wind Waker?

lol Black Turtle. Classix.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 2:43:11 PM | message detail
"Possible" in the same way that people thought it was "possible" that Liquid Snake was indirectly equal with Solid Snake in 2k4.

...as in, ludicrous.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/8/2007 2:47:16 PM | message detail
There's nothing weird out of everything you listed except for Ryu = Bowser, and I think everyone agrees that Ryu picked it up a step this contest while Bowser dropped the ball. Sure that still shouldn't make them equals, but there's going to be anomalies no matter what you do with the stats.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/8/2007 2:49:08 PM | message detail
The Noble Nine has a proud tradition of bouncing back after a terrible year, usually for no real reason. Link from 2k3 to 2k4 (TP trailer?), Sephiroth from 2k4 to 2k5 (SFF against Cloud?), Mario from 2k4 to 2k5 (uh, DS ownership?), Snake from 2k4/2k5 to 2k6 (MGS4/Brawl trailers?), Mega Man from 2k4 to 2k5 (okay, maybe Link SFF is a good reason), and Sonic from 2k3 and 2k4 to 2k5 and 2k6 (?). When the best reasons you have are trailers, there's probably something wrong.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/8/2007 2:51:11 PM | message detail
Honestly... if you think Auron is that much ahead of Sora, are you then taking the Vincents and Squalls to take down MM? Because if you're not, then I really have no idea why you're getting so riled up over 1% discretion in the stats.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2007 2:57:20 PM | message detail
I'll agree with whoever said it first, Auron > Sora in direct matchup, but after KH3 I think its very possible that Sora becomes stronger indirectly.

Especially if he's grown up a bit more and has some badass moments.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
consolefreak | Posted 8/8/2007 3:00:50 PM | message detail
"Possible" in the same way that people thought it was "possible" that Liquid Snake was indirectly equal with Solid Snake in 2k4.

...as in, ludicrous.


The hell? I don't care how many anomalies you pop up, Sora got nearly 46% on Mega Man, that's all that needs to be said. How can Auron possibly be so far ahead of Sora? And if you hold Sora - Alucard today, you're damn right I'm taking Sora with 60%+, which already makes him decently close to Auron. No one's calling Sora to be stronger.

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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
consolefreak | Posted 8/8/2007 3:01:43 PM | message detail
I'll agree with whoever said it first, Auron > Sora in direct matchup, but after KH3 I think its very possible that Sora becomes stronger indirectly.

Especially if he's grown up a bit more and has some badass moments.

TuRtLe


Very possibe? A post-KH3 Sora being stronger than Auron is a lock.
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 3:02:17 PM | message detail
Honestly... if you think Auron is that much ahead of Sora, are you then taking the Vincents and Squalls to take down MM? Because if you're not, then I really have no idea why you're getting so riled up over 1% discretion in the stats.

Yeah, I am, at least of 2k6. The random "bounce-backs" that the NN has seemed to display over the years gives me pause, sure, but from a purely analytical perspective, I believe that Mega Man would lose to someone like Vincent this year.

Of course, I would have said the same thing about Snake losing to Mega Man in 2k6. Didn't stop me from taking that upset of course, and the outcome didn't disappoint <.<
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 3:05:37 PM | message detail
The hell? I don't care how many anomalies you pop up, Sora got nearly 46% on Mega Man, that's all that needs to be said. How can Auron possibly be so far ahead of Sora?

...because he was stronger than Mega Man.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
MnMZero | Posted 8/8/2007 3:11:37 PM | message detail
...because he was stronger than Mega Man.

wat
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consolefreak | Posted 8/8/2007 3:11:42 PM | message detail
...because he was stronger than Mega Man.

Ballsy, to say the least. So, since MM and Sonic could be considered pretty much equal, you consider Auron te be quite a bit stronger than Vincent, for example?

How do you figure so, anyway? Auron got SFF'd by Crono?
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
ZFS | Posted 8/8/2007 3:12:27 PM | message detail
...because he was stronger than Mega Man.

oh snap

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 3:16:43 PM | message detail
The main argument here (at least the one that I'm advocating) is that Mega Man and Sonic are *not* equals. Which match the anomaly came in is up for grabs (though not particularly important), but I just find that to be the most likely explanation.

MM just looked weak all throughout 2k6. People were calling for his head before Snake had even shown signs of boosting.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/8/2007 3:21:00 PM | message detail
I'm willing to give Mega Man the benefit of the doubt. People were calling for Snake's head after 2004, too.
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consolefreak | Posted 8/8/2007 3:26:22 PM | message detail
I really cannot agree with that. It's not like Sora wasn't impressive in his own right. He put up some decent numbers against GF (outperforming GC-only Leon Kennedy by a good amount). I won't say MM was impressive : he wasn't, really. But I won't go as far as take Auron over him.
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 3:39:07 PM | message detail
As the stats topic's resident Snake fanboy, Snake 2k4 was absolutely his weakest year, and the weakest year of any Noble Niner. Sure, he may not have been *as* weak as he appeared (Link/MM and the fact that he got blasted in the face when he went out - literally), but disappointing in every match up to getting rocked in the end - yeah, he dropped, and he would've lost to a non-Noble in the following year if it hadn't been for MGS3. Do I take characters like Ganondorf - or even better, a near-elite that hadn't even been in the contest like Vincent - over Snake in 2k4? Um... it's hard for me to justify not doing it, at least from an objective perspective.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/8/2007 3:48:56 PM | message detail
You're saying Auron > MM, and I'm clinically insane for believing differently. Yeah, ok.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2007 4:03:31 PM | message detail
I really cannot agree with that. It's not like Sora wasn't impressive in his own right. He put up some decent numbers against GF (outperforming GC-only Leon Kennedy by a good amount).

And seeing how Gordon Freeman's linearity is... questionable at best, Sora didn't really have much to go on in 2k6 outside of the MM match. He had an 'eh' match against Tingle, a match against Gordon Freeman which if you go by 2k5 stats put Sora at 31.55 on BL (and incidentally puts Mega Man at 34.5, under such near elites as Vincent/Squall 2k5...), and the good showing against Mega Man. But seeing as how it's precisely Mega Man's legitimacy I'm calling into question, that doesn't mean a whole lot.

You're saying Auron > MM, and I'm clinically insane for believing differently. Yeah, ok.

I'm saying that Auron > Sora, decisively - THAT is just not under any kind of debate as far as I'm concerned. It's obvious, *too* obvious, and while there are always believers to the contrary (and there will always be - what's up, Tidus > Auron supporters >_>), that doesn't make them any less wrong. And you can make of that what you will. Personally, rather than believe Sora had a random big overperformance on Mega Man or something to that effect, I suspect Mega Man - who has *plenty* of reason to be doubted.

There are always anomalies. But when your argument relies on there being so many (or just plain denial) it rings hollow. Mega Man being overrated would clear up a LOT, and there's even a handful of reasons why it would plausibly happen.

Not that you need a reason.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
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