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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 446

transience | Posted 8/7/2007 2:33:51 AM | message detail
no respect for Leon Kennedy, eh? I think Kirby/Leon is a good match, and if you move Kirby out of there, a rather strong character is completely wasted.
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xyzzy
8-bit plastic love machine
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/7/2007 2:37:02 AM | message detail
1 - I like what you did with Leon here. After seeing him put up almost as much on Bowser as Kirby did and the fact that Kirby might've been overrated in that match, they're near equal in the 2k6 stats and that Leon still has reason to increase (if only because of RE4 continuing to sell and get ported to every system under the sun)... good set up.

Fenix/Phoenix is only hard if you think Marcus Fenix has Gordon Freeman syndrome or if you think he's gonna get as anti-voted as the Chief. I see neither happening.

2 - Much to my chagrin, I don'tthink Bowser/Ganondorf is a dream match anymore, especially after TP. Vincent/Zelda is nice, but again, after TP... gotta take her. I like MM getting challenged here, but the idea that it'll probably be primarily Nintendo competition makes me doubt the chances (not that we've got an abundance of near-elites that aren't Ninty these days...).

Note that Sora was less than a percent off of what Snake got on Mega Man in 2k3, and that was his best showing prior to 2k6. We know that a good number of Square characters would KILL Sora - so I lean more toward that side when setting up ideas for challenging MM. Vincent may just be fine by himself though, so yeah

3 - Pretty 'eh' division right here. Nothing really has reason to be debatable 'cept Vivi/Fox, and that's kind of a stretch.

4 - Another ho-hum division outside of Ashe/Seifer, which I get turned off by because I don't see either having particularly notable strength.

5 - Cloud's division one of the most exciting? Huh. Riku is gonna easily handle DK after what he did to Yoshi, but Midna/Alucard is just a great teaser. Setting that winner up with Balthier is just the icing on the cake.

The one thing I don't like is that it's Cloud's division - if Balthier gets through he gets SFFed hardcore and we fail to get anything resembling a read on him. I'd prefer this setup in, say, Sonic's division or something like that.

6 - Wide open. Heck, you could even make a case for Mewtwo if you were on any illegal substances <.< My pick is (surprise) Kratos. I'd take Dante in this division, after all... >.>

7 - I like Kefka/GF, though the magic's a bit gone of course. Other than that... I can't see any debate over Auron >>>> Sora. The kid needs a draw that doesn't land him into a match like that which would be plain boring

8 - Knux/Ryu and Dante/Tifa are great, rounding this out to make a good ending division.

We end up with Mario/Sonic (good), Cloud/whoever (okay), Snake/Sephiroth (believe), and, uh, Link/Mega Man... yeah, on second thought, I advise swapping Mega's division with MC's on the off-chance he, y'know, makes it out of there. Repeating that debacle wouldn't be any kind of a reward for the Blue Bomber.

And we all know the rest.

I've noticed... I *definitely* don't want Clinkeroth back from a predicatability perspective - this is a *good* bracket, but their presence is just tearing things apart. Unless you stick 'em all in the same division it's unavoidable (and what's the point of having them in if ya do that, you might as well just have a ToC).

I'd still like to see them in, because I like seeing them run wild on the bracket and wildly speculating on how well they're doing based on the numbers. I do think that we need to see them again eventually (and if it'll stop a tag-team contest, I'm all for it).
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 8/7/2007 2:39:58 AM | message detail
Not really. I think Sub Zero/Leon is a better match, regardless of what the X-Stats say. (I think they have it as a toss-up as to which is better, actually) And I think Ryu Hayabusa is a good dark horse pick for that division, actually.
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Lopen is bye bye. Now is ninja time.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/7/2007 2:41:26 AM | message detail
Also, if there's any criticism - not enough interesting new blood/returners, too many old characters with potential wasted in unwinnable situations. I understand many times you were setting up second/third round thrillers, but there was a bit too much collateral damage in the first round.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 8/7/2007 2:44:36 AM | message detail
And man, you didn't mention the other swaps?

Gilgamesh/CATS has potential to be debated. I love the idea of Gilgamesh and CATS being in a debatable match. And really, challenging Crono is still a waste. Except maybe with Zelda or Ganondorf, in which someone could make a case for that with TP hype. But Mega Man's soaking up all of that, which is just okay with me.
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Lopen is bye bye. Now is ninja time.
transience | Posted 8/7/2007 2:45:01 AM | message detail
yeah, my main complaint to myself was that I was turning the bracket into just another midcarder warground at the expense of our new blood.. but then, I don't have a lot of respect for our new blood outside of Midna and Balthier.

...maybe I should have split those two up? it would have let our opinions of new blood run wild without our x-stat blinders on. maybe I should switch one of those two into division 6 and put, say, Mewtwo or Raiden in their place.
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xyzzy
8-bit plastic love machine
transience | Posted 8/7/2007 2:45:57 AM | message detail
wait, Mewtwo is technically new blood too. uhh, I'll think about this.
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xyzzy
8-bit plastic love machine
Lopen | Posted 8/7/2007 2:48:55 AM | message detail
Man, Raiden is new blood also. That Snake squash in no way counts, man.
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Lopen is bye bye. Now is ninja time.
transience | Posted 8/7/2007 2:52:52 AM | message detail
hmm, maybe something like this?

~5~

(3) Yuna
(6) Alucard

(2) Balthier
(7) Tidus

~6~

(3) Midna
(6) Zero

(2) Kratos
(7) Shadow

too much Square in one fourpack for my blood, but I could probably push some things around to make it look better.
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xyzzy
8-bit plastic love machine
_Harmonica_ | Posted 8/7/2007 4:30:47 AM | message detail
Nice bracket, lots of difficult matches on the first round. My quick prediction:

~1~

(1) Link
(4) Marcus Fenix

(3) Kirby
(2) Leon Kennedy

~2~

(1) Mega Man
(4) Bowser

(3) Vincent Valentine
(2) Zelda

~3~

(1) Solid Snake
(4) Fox McCloud

(3) Crono
(2) Squall

~4~

(1) Sephiroth
(4) Luigi

(3) Ashe
(2) Samus

~5~

(1) Cloud
(4) Riku

(3) Midna
(2) Balthier

~6~

(1) Master Chief
(5) Raiden

(3) Shadow
(7) Yuna

~7~

(1) Sonic
(4) Kefka

(6) Yoshi
(2) Sora

~8~

(1) Mario
(5) Ryu

(3) Tifa
(2) Dante

---

~1~

(1) Link
(3) Kirby

~2~

(1) Mega Man
(2) Zelda

~3~

(1) Solid Snake
(3) Crono

~4~

(1) Sephiroth
(2) Samus

~5~

(1) Cloud
(3) Midna

~6~

(1) Master Chief
(3) Shadow

~7~

(1) Sonic
(2) Sora

~8~

(1) Mario
(3) Tifa

---

(1) Link
(1) Mega Man

(1) Solid Snake
(1) Sephiroth

(1) Cloud
(1) Master Chief

(1) Sonic
(1) Mario

--


(1) Link
(1) Sephiroth

(1) Cloud
(1) Mario

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Link > Cloud
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hellow the idit center called they want there retaird back
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/7/2007 4:32:47 AM | message detail
(3) Yuna
(6) Alucard

(2) Balthier
(7) Tidus

~6~

(3) Midna
(6) Zero

(2) Kratos
(7) Shadow


Uh, I really see Yuna mopping up that fourpack and Midna standing no chance. Midna will be strong, yes, but not quite that strong.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
jonthomson | Posted 8/7/2007 6:15:09 AM | message detail
Uh, you guys did nominate Marcus Fenix right? He might be stronger than I initially thought. I didn't even think he'd be on Sam Fisher's level.

Obviously nominated him. I was saying Fenix is going to be underrated by many two topics ago.
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Jon Thomson - Nominate Jigglypuff LDO
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/7/2007 8:39:58 AM | message detail
I wanna do the same thing that every one else do.

~1~ : Link > BIdoof.

I suspect that Marcus Fenix will be the most overseeded character of all time, since I doubt that he would win over Sam Fisher. If you haven't played GoW, then you have no reason at all to vote for him, except if you are a bracket voter. But weak enough to lose to Phoenix, another character that I doubt many would vote for if they haven't played his game. It's not like this match is going to happen anyway, so I guess I would pick Phoenix.

Leon and Kirby would win, I wonder how far away from Sub-Zero Akuma really is. I have no iea who I would pcik between Leon and Kirby, but Leon seems like a more safe bet.


~2~


The only match I have trouble to predict in this math is actually Mega Man VS Vincent, but I'm confident that the blue bomber would take it.

~3~

Not much that I can say about this division either, Vivi > Fox and Snake > Crono.

~4~

This division is a bit cool. Magus VS Luigi is hard to predict, and I've no idea who I would pick between Ashe and Seifer. I'll guess I would go with the two I nominated (Magus and Sefier), and I just have to mention that I had Luigi winning his 4-pack last year :P

~5~

Riku finally wins! Midna takes the dayvote over Alucard and Tidus upsets Balthier, but losses to Midna. I didn't expect Cloud's division to be on the most interesting one.

~6~


I'm really confident in this division. Yuna wins it, Shadow wins over Zero I guess.... and Masterchief > Raiden. N00btwo ends up weaker than Tanner in the X-stats ( I can dream right?)

~7~

Auron VS Yoshi could be interesting. Sonic > Kefka, Auron > Sora.

~8~

XD @ Wario. I hate you for making Ryu face Knuckles in round 1. This match will obviously be a tie since both of these characters can't lose in round 1. I would've prefered if Tifa/fodder switched places with Ryu/Knuckles, because then round 2 would have an really interesting match. There's no real favourite in Knux/Ryu VS Dante IMO.

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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/7/2007 8:40:04 AM | message detail
Swap Squall and Gilgamesh (Kleenex's rally paid off BIG... yeap. Oh come on, we always have one fluke of a seed).

:D
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/feedback/contest_nominate_cb6.php
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/7/2007 8:45:14 AM | message detail
But yeah, overall looks like a pretty nice bracket.
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Nominate Gilgamesh from Final Fantasy V for SC2k7!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/feedback/contest_nominate_cb6.php
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/7/2007 9:06:13 AM | message detail
was Vivi prominent in Kingdom Hearts II? I'm really confident about Fox > Vivi with the Nintendo boosts going around and the PSX generation dropping horribly. I'd bank on DK and VIvi having a close match this year.
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/7/2007 9:10:57 AM | message detail
Gordon's supposed to face someone with a generic first/last name. So... Marcus Fenix would be good, or maybe Carl Johnson.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/7/2007 9:11:29 AM | message detail
Phoenix Wright is generic? <_<
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Nominate Gilgamesh from Final Fantasy V for SC2k7!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/feedback/contest_nominate_cb6.php
Haste_2 | Posted 8/7/2007 9:12:22 AM | message detail
Er...close enough, anyway.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
ToadYoshi | Posted 8/7/2007 9:16:32 AM | message detail
Ike will not be overseeded.

6 or 5 seed sounds about right for him. I can see him beating Master Chief. MC hasn't won a match in how long?
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Yoshi > Most. Toad > All. Mario Kart forever.
I did it for the lolz!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/7/2007 9:17:31 AM | message detail
Ike beating MC is a stretch to me. I'd easily take Chief in that match. is Ike REALLY that far away from Captain Falcon.. ?
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/7/2007 9:17:35 AM | message detail
MC has Halo 3 hype behind him this year, and a lot of it. I don't see him jobbing like he did last year.
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Nominate Gilgamesh from Final Fantasy V for SC2k7!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/feedback/contest_nominate_cb6.php
PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/7/2007 9:46:35 AM | message detail
yes, ike really is that far off of captain falcon... just not in the positive direction.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
HaRRicH | Posted 8/7/2007 9:48:07 AM | message detail
...wait, Ike > MC?!?! As a big Ness supporter, I wouldn't take Ness > MC this year...and Ike sure as hell ain't beating Ness and most people don't think Ness will be as high as I think. Throw in Halo 3, and you've got an upset that is NOT happening.
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neonreaper | Posted 8/7/2007 9:48:31 AM | message detail
Auron vs Balthier

who wins
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The Dude: Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2007 9:55:55 AM | message detail
Auron vs Balthier

Auron with 55%+ before SFF.
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The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic. ~Joe Stalin, comment to Churchill at Potsdam, 1945
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/7/2007 10:03:03 AM | message detail
Auron >>>> Bathlier. or whatever their name is.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
ToadYoshi | Posted 8/7/2007 10:04:44 AM | message detail
^^^ Auron.

What people aren't realizing is that Ike was a character before brawl.

Fire Emblem finished in the top half of the spring 2k6 xstats. And nobody saw Marth and Roy making contests due to SSBM. Fire Emblem exists, not just in SSBB.

ok, so Ike > MC is a bit of a stretch. But it wouldn't even be a bold prediction if I said MC will be overrated AGAIN this year.
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Yoshi > Most. Toad > All. Mario Kart forever.
I did it for the lolz!
ZFS | Posted 8/7/2007 10:06:21 AM | message detail
Ike would be weak as hell. Master Chief wouldn't even need Halo 3 hype to take care of him.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
therealmnm | Posted 8/7/2007 10:07:06 AM | message detail
Bored at work, so I guess I'll comment too!

Division 1: Marcus Fenix is wasted! I definitely don't think he should be one of those "just happy to be here" characters thrown into the bracket. Even if he's given a freebie match against PW. I'd rather see him tested. At least put him up against GF or somebody since Fenix seems like the type of character that GF loses to! Same for Akuma. Doubt he's taking out Leon Kennedy. I'd rather see Marcus Fenix vs. Akuma if anything in that division. Let Leon take on Sub-Zero in that first round match with the winner going up against Kirby. Leon's the favorite, but I see Sub-Zero giving him a better fight than he would against Kirby.

Division 2: Bowser/Ganondorf shouldn't be a first round match! I like close first round matches, but I'd rather see the stronger characters at least get a win over someone (preferrably someone who's been in a contest before) so we can at least get some winning data on them. I know we're all for keeping unpredictability up and all, but as far as discussion and debate go, I'm not a fan of judging a characters strength off of exactly one performance. But anyways, I guess with all the heavy hitters in this division, that matchup couldn't be avoided. Some nice matchups in the division though. And Mega Man definitely gets challenged.

Division 3: Fox/Vivi is a good matchup. Also like Snake going up against Crono. Nice to see the progression of Snake since 2k2. I like seeing Crono go up against the stronger FF characters as well.

Division 4: Luigi/Magus is cool... but it's an otherwise boring division. Samus is just there waiting on her matchup with Sephiroth. Wish she was fed at least a semi-interesting matchup before then, just to see how someone holds up against her. Toad is also wasted. There are so many characters that you could test out on Toad.

Division 5: Aww yeah, Cloud's back to kick ass and take names. A welcome return to the bracket. Screw prediction. Oh, I guess Riku/DK is a nice matchup.

Division 6: Good division all around. Chief gets tested at every step. Zero gets the chance at redemption. Shadow gets tested as well. Yuna gets the chance to prove if last year was a fluke or not. Definitely my favorite division so far.

Division 7: I would like it if Sora went up against Yoshi with the winner going up against Auron. I definitely don't think Sora should be the one to get the easy first round match out of the three.

Division 8: lol Wario. You really gave him one of those "Thanks for playing!" numbers. Knuckles/Ryu is cool. Dante/Tifa is cool. Good bracket overall.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/7/2007 10:07:47 AM | message detail
What people aren't realizing is that Ike was a character before brawl.

in a cult game. he's below the fodderline before SSBB. he isn't even as strong as Falcon.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
therealmnm | Posted 8/7/2007 10:20:35 AM | message detail
Yeah, I don't see why people are hyping up Ike at all. Falcon has 2 SSB games under his belt and he still didn't amount to that much. I don't know how you can replace 2 SSB games with a Fire Emblem game and SSBB hype and think he's going to be any stronger than Falcon.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
Haste_2 | Posted 8/7/2007 10:21:18 AM | message detail
Before SSBB's release, Ike will probably be weaker than C. Falcon.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/7/2007 10:21:51 AM | message detail
A Fire Emblem game, another Fire Emblem game hype and SSBB hype, actually.

Not that it makes any difference, but still. <_<
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Nominate Gilgamesh from Final Fantasy V for SC2k7!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/feedback/contest_nominate_cb6.php
jonthomson | Posted 8/7/2007 10:22:29 AM | message detail
If you haven't played GoW, then you have no reason at all to vote for him

Who hasn't played GoW though? The thing's pretty much the killer app of the 360.
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Jon Thomson - Nominate Jigglypuff LDO
ZFS | Posted 8/7/2007 10:23:28 AM | message detail
another Fire Emblem game hype

Oh, well that changes everything!

Heh.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 8/7/2007 10:24:31 AM | message detail
I don't appreciate your snide remarks, sir !
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Nominate Gilgamesh from Final Fantasy V for SC2k7!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/feedback/contest_nominate_cb6.php
therealmnm | Posted 8/7/2007 10:26:38 AM | message detail
Yeah, there are definitely enough Gears of Wars players to be able to keep Fenix above the fodder line. And as someone said before, he wouldn't get the anti-Xbox hate drawn to him like Master Chief does. So given the right matchup, he could draw in casual votes from people who don't really have a preference for either character. I mean, he still is a bad-looking dude with a gun. That's sure to draw a vote or two in many instances.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
transience | Posted 8/7/2007 10:26:51 AM | message detail
Ike being above anyone in SSB seems completely wrong to me. I might even take the Hand over him.
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xyzzy
8-bit plastic love machine
therealmnm | Posted 8/7/2007 10:30:11 AM | message detail
I like how arguments about the lower SSB characters always end up being the same. "_______ doesn't get all his strength from SSB! Don't forget that he still has (Earthbound/F-Zero/Fire Emblem) to draw from!" As if it really makes a difference...
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
ZFS | Posted 8/7/2007 10:32:55 AM | message detail
I'll throw out a couple of quick comments about that bracket while I'm here.

-- There's quite a few really good matches setup in the first round with the winner being fed to someone much stronger. Guess it's just a product of having the entirety of the Noble Nine in the bracket. I could stand to do without Link, Cloud, and Sephiroth after looking at it.

-- Division 6 is awesome. Almost anyone could come out of that division the winner -- some having greater chances than others, obviously. Best division in the bracket.

-- I like the setup of Snake/Crono. Snake gets to show Crono how it's done after 2002! And then there's the inevitable Snake/Sephiroth: do you believe

-- The Midna/Alucard/Balthier/Tidus fourpack is a headscratcher. Any one of those, save for maybe Alucard, could come away as the winner in that. I almost want to give it to Balthier, but maybe Midna will be better than I'm giving credit.

Overall: Not too bad. There are some notable characters in there that just sorta get fed to someone higher up on the chain. Looking over the bracket made me realize how nice it's been not to have Link/Cloud/Sephiroth in the main bracket for a couple years, though.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
ZFS | Posted 8/7/2007 10:35:37 AM | message detail
I like how arguments about the lower SSB characters always end up being the same. "_______ doesn't get all his strength from SSB! Don't forget that he still has (Earthbound/F-Zero/Fire Emblem) to draw from!" As if it really makes a difference...

Hah. That sums up every weak SSB character that sneaks into these things. Perfect.

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"We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake
transience | Posted 8/7/2007 10:42:39 AM | message detail
I could see Ike as being above Ness after SSBB comes out. I think the hero-with-a-sword character design is worth more than Ness's kid image, and Fire Emblem is more popular here than we give it credit. picture or not, it did do pretty well against Metal Gear.

but before SSBB, he's fodder.
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xyzzy
8-bit plastic love machine
therealmnm | Posted 8/7/2007 10:54:06 AM | message detail
I'm simply not sold on Balthier. I know I haven't played FFXII yet, but I still have my doubts. Square is no longer the juggernaut it was before, so I don't think the most popular character in a Square game automatically has strength anymore. FFXII didn't dominate the gaming scene like a typical FF game normally would, at least from what I'm observing. It's just another good game. It has plenty of fans, but it never was at the head of the gaming scene. Even if Tidus has fallen off, I still don't see Balthier being at his level.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/7/2007 10:56:29 AM | message detail
Fire Emblem finished in the top half of the spring 2k6 xstats. And nobody saw Marth and Roy making contests due to SSBM. Fire Emblem exists, not just in SSBB.

That's the worst reasoning I've ever seen. Ike doesn't get the support he's getting for this years contest if he isn't announced for SSBB days before nominations go up.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
jonthomson | Posted 8/7/2007 10:57:52 AM | message detail
Spider Solitaire 8.32% 4357
Solitaire 27.37% 14326


That's simply ridiculous. Spider Solitaire's clearly better and is getting SFF'ed to oblivion
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Jon Thomson - Nominate Jigglypuff LDO
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/7/2007 10:58:17 AM | message detail
I'm still confused how how Rikku and Yuna are either close and above to Tidus, respectively.
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Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/7/2007 11:04:03 AM | message detail
Yoshi vs. Sora, who ya got this year?

It seems to me like the consensus would be with Yoshi, but with how well Riku did on Yoshi, and how well Sora did on MM, I don't know why it's the case. Maybe I'm wrong and my perception is off, but personally I'm taking Sora.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
_Harmonica_ | Posted 8/7/2007 11:05:01 AM | message detail
I'd take Sora, for those exact reasons.
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hellow the idit center called they want there retaird back
therealmnm | Posted 8/7/2007 11:05:38 AM | message detail
That's why I said I like Sora/Yoshi with the winner taking on Auron better than Auron/Yoshi with the winner taking on Sora. Yoshi/Sora is definitely the best potential match out of the three.
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Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge
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