GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 445
| ZFS | Posted 8/5/2007 12:49:26 PM | message detail |
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I'd rather have something concrete to argue over instead of the
hypothetical stuff that, in all likelihood, isn't going to be a factor
once the bracket comes out. --- "We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/5/2007 12:51:12 PM | message detail |
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I'm with HM on this one, because even if the time between the bracket
and the first day of the contest isn't that long, we'll still be
arguing that same match all throughout the contest until it actually
happens anyway, with all the round 1 filler we deal with. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| SonicRaptor | Posted 8/5/2007 12:52:16 PM | message detail |
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You know, this will actually be the first contest in a year since I
paid good attention. I didn't really pay attention to last year's
because the Spring Contest burned me out and my Summer bracket was shot
to hell early on. I'm actually a little excited this time. --- Today's Subliminal Thought Is: |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/5/2007 1:42:04 PM | message detail |
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Heh, it's looking like my message in Part 446 is gonna make sense after all >_> WE WANT THE DAMN BRACKET! --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/5/2007 2:07:05 PM | message detail |
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Also, if were gonna have Samus/Seph, we better have Snake/Cloud or Snake/Mario. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/5/2007 2:12:37 PM | message detail |
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Snake/Seph!!! --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/5/2007 2:13:02 PM | message detail |
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dog we need Snake/Seph for AFTER SSBB and MGS4 come out --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/5/2007 2:17:12 PM | message detail |
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dog i know gosh --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/5/2007 2:20:20 PM | message detail |
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good to hear daddio --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| consolefreak | Posted 8/5/2007 2:27:57 PM | message detail |
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just thought I'd say that Ganondorf could have beaten Vincent the
very next day given how close the match was. he doesn't really need
much to go his way. I never liked these arguments. You can also say Vincent could've beaten him with 55% the very next day. Fact is, he didn't. He beat him with 52.6%, and his performance should be measured by exactly that. --- The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name. - Stronghold Architect, journal (MTG) |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/5/2007 2:40:20 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, console's right, it could have been Ganon's best possible
performance on a normal day...and it could have been Vincent's worst.
Vice-versa, too, but until we have something more reliable then we
can't really suspect it to be anything different from that being their
average strengths. You and tranny are both right in that we don't
really know what could happen in a rematch the very next day...just on
almost-opposite ends of the spectrum (I don't think tranny's arguing it
was a particularly good or bad day for either of them..but neither are
you). I'm just assuming that a rematch that next day probably would have still had Ganon get between 47% and 48%. I think statistical variation allows for a bigger gap than that...but I don't want to spread everybody out too far like that. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| ZFS | Posted 8/5/2007 2:55:19 PM | message detail |
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Snake/Seph!!! Believe! --- "We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 8/5/2007 2:55:47 PM | message detail |
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except samus already pimp-slapped his ass into oblivion! --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/5/2007 2:57:03 PM | message detail |
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Man we need a Samus/Snake rematch honestly. I'm talking post MP3, SSBB, MGS4, that'd be effin epic. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| ZFS | Posted 8/5/2007 2:57:11 PM | message detail |
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samus more suckus --- "We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/5/2007 2:58:45 PM | message detail |
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man I remember when I was a samus hater because i thought all the games
besides Super Metroid and her parts in the Smash Bros series were lame.
then I played the Metroid Prime games and I was like dude Samus rocks. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/5/2007 2:59:53 PM | message detail |
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In all seriousness though...we need the Prince of Persia to get a new
damn game so he can have some hope of doing something cool in this
contest. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| ZFS | Posted 8/5/2007 2:59:57 PM | message detail |
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Rematch? After all that we need to see Snake beating down Cloud, yo! --- "We need to remember -- to spread the word -- to fight for change." - Snake |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/5/2007 3:00:54 PM | message detail |
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We need a fourpack where Snake just tears FF7 characters up. I'm
talking Tifa, Vincent, Seph, Cloud. That should be all Snake should
have to fight this contest, FF7 folk. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/5/2007 4:05:43 PM | message detail |
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Speaking of FF7 characters, will we be seeing Aeris back again this
year? I'm going to go out on a limb and say no, especially after how
much she stunk it up last summer. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/5/2007 4:06:16 PM | message detail |
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Aeris is a jobber and always has been. Even that one year where she did good. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/5/2007 4:10:08 PM | message detail |
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Although, if she got in as a 7 seed to Tifa's 2 seed, that would be a
really fun match to see, just to see Aeris get the tar kicked out of
her, and the jp's return to rant about it. Assuming he doesn't have a heart attack or something. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Gaddswell | Posted 8/5/2007 5:23:50 PM | message detail |
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Tifa vs Aeris = Vlado vs jp Who ya got? --- Nominate Pikachu for the Gamefaqs Character Contests! http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/feedback/contest_nominate_cb6.php |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/5/2007 5:24:25 PM | message detail |
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jp would win simply because of all the damned fat jokes. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Kaxon | Posted 8/5/2007 5:26:36 PM | message detail |
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Making the sweet sixteen 3 times in 3 contests is not a jobber. Even in
her worst year she was easily in the upper half of the field, and more
than worthy of returning. --- Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin Nominate Ecco the Dolphin for Character Battle 6! |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/5/2007 5:27:13 PM | message detail |
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Yeah yeah, I know, I know. I just flat out don't like her, I'll admit. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Kaxon | Posted 8/5/2007 6:43:10 PM | message detail |
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Has anyone started a predict the contestants topic? I think Rodri used to be the one who did that... --- Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin Nominate Ecco the Dolphin for Character Battle 6! |
| ToadYoshi | Posted 8/5/2007 6:48:28 PM | message detail |
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I started something close, more like predict the seeds, but still. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37265576 --- Yoshi > Most. Toad > All. Mario Kart forever. I did it for the lolz! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/5/2007 11:15:13 PM | message detail |
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So how long will the noms be up? IIRC they're usually up a week or so, then a week or 2 later the bracket is out. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Haste_2 | Posted 8/5/2007 11:37:15 PM | message detail |
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If we want the contest to start at the start of September (which I'm
hoping for), we're gonna have to get the bracket in the next week...
and that's easily doable if Bacon works things at that speed of
preparing the '03/'04 contests. Sorry, Kaxon... but Aeris is fifth in line among FF7 characters. I don't think that's very deserving. If anything, since there are other FF7 characters that would be strong, I think it would be more fair to give Cid/Barret/ughRufus a shot. I'm just assuming that a rematch that next day probably would have still had Ganon get between 47% and 48%. I think statistical variation allows for a bigger gap than that...but I don't want to spread everybody out too far like that. Statistically speaking, the odds of Vincent getting over 53% or under 52% would be less than 1/100. However, doing a rematch the very next day obviously won't prove anything, since there would be a different set of voters (some would not realize it was rematch)... and I think the Battle Royale last year proved that a different set of voters can make a huge difference. I think the only way to test how a match varies is to do have two identical polls (same pics) where you can't tell the difference between them, and have one of them randomly pop up for each visitor. Do Vincent/Ganon two days in a row, and I'd bet Ganondorf would do noticeable better the second time, though. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| consolefreak | Posted 8/5/2007 11:55:41 PM | message detail |
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Statistically speaking, the odds of Vincent getting over 53% or under 52% would be less than 1/100. How so? Do Vincent/Ganon two days in a row, and I'd bet Ganondorf would do noticeable better the second time, though. And why is that? --- The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name. - Stronghold Architect, journal (MTG) |
| Haste_2 | Posted 8/6/2007 12:02:43 AM | message detail |
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Statistics math... though I just estimated and I forgot the method. Ask
someone to do the calculations and they'll say the same thing about a
fair Ganon/Vincent rematch (though they could might say slightly better
than 1/100). And why is that? Because of how Link dominated in the Battle Royale after Day 2. Seeing how much certain characters changed percentage in odd ways between Day basically proves that Link didn't merely steal all the votes from Samus. And don't give me TP hype, either. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| Haste_2 | Posted 8/6/2007 12:03:34 AM | message detail |
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Link dominated comparing Day 2 to Day 1*. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/6/2007 12:48:32 AM | message detail |
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I think a better example would be how Seph dropped in the middle of the BR. As for Ganon possibly doing better the second day, I figure it would be because of bracket-voters if it happened. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| consolefreak | Posted 8/6/2007 4:36:41 AM | message detail |
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Ah statistics math. Will get in to that this year in college. I'll take your word for it. Because of how Link dominated in the Battle Royale after Day 2. Seeing how much certain characters changed percentage in odd ways between Day basically proves that Link didn't merely steal all the votes from Samus. And don't give me TP hype, either. I think you're here insinuating some kind of growth in popularity on a day-to-day basis for some reason (for example Nintendo fans telling their friends about the contest). While this is questionable in its own right, it's not really relevant either. Sure, hold the Vincent - Ganondorf match every day for a week and Ganondorf might win some days in the end (I don't really think so, but whatever), that's not the same as saying "Ganondorf could've won on any other day", because whatever day you pick for the match to happen, it's always going to be 'day 1', so to say. Sorry if I misunderstood you. --- The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name. - Stronghold Architect, journal (MTG) |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/6/2007 4:44:36 AM | message detail |
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Using last years stats, Crono is predicted to beat Vincent with 51.32%. Now, I know there are a few crazies here who think MM could've actually beat Crono last year, but it really makes more sense for MM to be weaker, given the majority of his matches. It's possible that Vincent would've beaten Mega Man last year, depending on how much weaker than Crono he actually is. It's possible that we'll see MM fall even further, and Ganondorf doesn't have to beat Vincent by much to beat Mega Man too. The only way I see Ganondorf losing to MM is either an MM boost or SFF. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/6/2007 5:11:00 AM | message detail |
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I like how Mega Man has turned into the new Sonic who is expected to
lose to any random character which is almost as strong as the noble
nine. Go ahead and waste your bracket... --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/6/2007 7:43:11 AM | message detail |
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Mega Man would've beat Crono for one simple reason, Nintendo SFF against Snake. And yes, I believe Sora was at Auron levels last year and can't wait to see what he'll do after KH3 TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/6/2007 7:49:33 AM | message detail |
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Auron levels? I thought Sora was way above pre-KH2 Auron. --- Network Premiere of: "GA All The Way." Watch one black kid's desperate search for his Wii. |
| therealmnm | Posted 8/6/2007 8:37:32 AM | message detail |
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BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism Lies. --- Currently playing: Guitar Hero 2, Gears of War, Saint's Row, SotN (XBLA), Burnout Revenge |
| Haste_2 | Posted 8/6/2007 9:03:50 AM | message detail |
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I think you're here insinuating some kind of growth in popularity on
a day-to-day basis for some reason (for example Nintendo fans telling
their friends about the contest). To go a little more in-depth... yes, that is right. Except it's not that reason in parenthesis, but it's the decreased vote totals that cause it... and the decreased vote totals mean the voters are different. That is because the more casual voters will either not notice Day 2 was a different poll from Day 1, or they didn't care to vote again. There's clearly a difference between casual voters and the more hardcore voters, which is evidenced by the oddities of Day 2 BR results as opposed to Day 1 (Sephiroth actually lost percentage), and it's obviously impossible for Sephiroth to steal negative Samus votes! =P Running two back-to-back Ganondorf/Vincent matches would result in the fewer, more hardcore voters (to a greater extent than Day 1 --> Day 2 of the BR) in the second match... at least, that's what I think. Looking at the BR, it seems that Link increased (even more than he "should have") while Sephiroth weakened, which is why I'd guess Ganondorf would do better in the second match. I'll mention that at least two matches did run twice (Hayabusa/Jill Valentine and Pokemon GSC/Xenogears). One basically had the same result, and the other changed by a couple percentage points. But, those weren't really true re-matches, since only people with accounts were able to vote on day 1, so both days were messed up as to the true results. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 8/6/2007 9:13:00 AM | message detail |
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Link dominated comparing Day 2 to Day 1*. But wasn't this because most of SMAUS' votes went to Link? --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| jonthomson | Posted 8/6/2007 9:23:21 AM | message detail |
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Is an analysis crew sorted for this contest? --- Jon Thomson - Nominate Jigglypuff LDO |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/6/2007 9:29:13 AM | message detail |
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Nothing official yet, but I think Moltar's been recruiting. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 8/6/2007 9:32:59 AM | message detail |
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MM jobbed to Ryu and lost a LOT of updates to freakin Sora.
Added to that he has no new games of worth and zero reason to increase
or even maintain his popularity. I'd say it's with good reason that
people are doubting him. :/ --- Smurf. . The cream Knux & Shadow fanboyism. NOMINATE THEM! ^__^ (and Klonoa too! wahoo wahoo!) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/6/2007 9:39:59 AM | message detail |
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Moltar, if you're looking for someone for the crew, look no further. IIRC, last year I got the point at least twice in the guest writeups, and my oracle picks were often better than the crew's. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/6/2007 9:43:04 AM | message detail |
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Didn't EC get a point everytime he wrote one? If he's up for it, I think he'd be good for the Crew. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 8/6/2007 9:44:13 AM | message detail |
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Not trying to take away your glory though BT, but EC's also more of a regular in the CS&D topics as well. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 8/6/2007 9:44:36 AM | message detail |
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I wouldn't mind being in the crew, but I ain't going to beg for a place. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 8/6/2007 9:47:05 AM | message detail |
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Likewise Moltar, it'd be fun to do analysis with you guys. Plus I got
both my entries into the top 50 last year so my "crazy ideas" ain't so
bad after all. =P --- Smurf. . The cream Knux & Shadow fanboyism. NOMINATE THEM! ^__^ (and Klonoa too! wahoo wahoo!) |
