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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 444

HaRRicH | Posted 7/24/2007 9:17:08 PM | message detail
It's way too early to call this reliable, but the first fifteen minutes suggest the 360-ownership is now at 42.9%. I doubt that stays, but it's still gonna be an increase from our last poll...probably a decent one, too.
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therealmnm | Posted 7/24/2007 9:47:14 PM | message detail
Watch out for the DAY VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!or not
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Aprosenf | Posted 7/24/2007 10:00:33 PM | message detail
A little late, but...

*Salutes Cjay*
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therealmnm | Posted 7/25/2007 12:17:26 PM | message detail
It's interesting how small the "too expensive" option is for the Xbox 360 compared to the "I just don't want one" option. In comparison, those options were a lot closer together for the PS3.
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Lopen | Posted 7/25/2007 2:48:51 PM | message detail
Makes sense to me... PS3 is $200 more expensive than the 360, no? $399 isn't too unreasonable for a next generation system to me.

I like how I'm unsure of that... shows how seriously I've considered buying either one.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 7/25/2007 11:10:47 PM | message detail
Nintendo has just released their official worldwide numbers as part of their quarter-end press release. Of course the Wii and DS are doing great hardware-wise (9.27 million Wiis sold ww, and a whooping 47.27 DSes), but of more use to us in spotting the new Contest's trends are these software sales. Here's all the games to crack the million mark worldwide so far:

Wii (6)
* Wii Sports - 8.32m (includes bundled in)
* Wii Play - 4.49m
* Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 3.61m
* WarioWare Smooth Moves - 1.82m
* Super Paper Mario - 1.25m
* Mario Party 8 - 1.03m

DS (22)
* Nintendogs - 14.79m
* New Super Mario Bros. - 10.52m
* Pokemon Diamond&Pearl - 8.76m
* Brain Age - 8.61m
* Animal Crossing - 8.01m
* Mario Kart DS - 7.83m
* Brain Age 2 - 5.33m
* Super Mario 64 DS - 4.97m
* Big Brain Academy - 3.73m
* Pokemon Mystery Dungeon - 3.08
* English Training - 2.86m
* Yoshi's Island DS - 2.47m
* Pokemon Ranger - 2.16m
* WarioWare Touched - 2.15m
* Tetris DS - 2.05m
* Kirby - 1.73m
* Common Sense Training - 1.53m
* Mario Basketball 3on3 - 1.50m
* Mario&Luigi RPG2 - 1.39m
* Mario vs. Donkey Kong 2 - 1.24m
* Super Princess Peach - 1.15m
* Diddy Kong Racing DS - 1.04m

Obviously many of these don't mean a ton to us since sometimes that's 90% Japan sales (as HM would no doubt say, Nintendog's beagle for '07 Champ... believe!), but at least it's useful to see that things like DKR and Super Peach were by no means flops, despite the perception you might get from this board. And I for one am hugely surprised that New Mario has still managed to stay ahead of D/P. And great sales for Paper Mario there too, though MP8 is clearly the big Wii winner- can't believe it reached that million mark already!

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HaRRicH | Posted 7/25/2007 11:33:11 PM | message detail
I figured SPM would have sold more than that...but hey, that's no knock on it either.



As for today's poll, right now it's looking like the DS is going to jump a hefty bit for the last DS-poll I saw (last September, I think) by at least 10%...but here's what I found just as interesting...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2493
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2824

...it's looking like the DS-Lite ownership is jumping about 20% while the original model is only falling about 6% (though things will probably change). It looks to me that many people are staying active DS-players and are upgrading their DS's while the DS continues to sell so well and even more people own it here.
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red sox 777 | Posted 7/26/2007 5:22:17 AM | message detail
Looks like Nintendogs is trying to break SMB3's record. Meanwhile, Nintendo closed up as much as rules allowed in Japan last night, advancing 5000 yen, or 8.8%, to become Japan's 5th largest company by market cap. $73 billion (USD) market cap now.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/26/2007 12:53:03 PM | message detail
Do you have any numbers on VC games, by the way? I wonder if/what VC game(s) broke 1,000,000.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/26/2007 1:33:09 PM | message detail
Obviously many of these don't mean a ton to us since sometimes that's 90% Japan sales (as HM would no doubt say, Nintendog's beagle for '07 Champ... believe!)

Nintendogs is vastly more popular in America and Europe than Japan...the reverse is true for the Brain Age style games. Beagle for champ, indeed, but don't count on that professor guy.

Also, D/P will almost surely overtake NSMB when it is (finally) released in Europe. As a consolation prize, NSMB will probably pass Super Mario 64 (~11.9m) considering that it still sells amazingly well everywhere.

Last I heard on VC numbers (I think back in early June, when Zelda II was released) was 1.7m aggregate for America, with no individual numbers. (There was a top 5, but I don't feel like digging it up - I think it was SMB, SMW, SM64, LttP, and OoT, not in that order.)
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Villainous DarkSol | Posted 7/26/2007 1:34:10 PM | message detail
dachshund > beagle
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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/26/2007 9:23:49 PM | message detail
The DS ended up with 66.23% of GameFAQs ownership, and increase of about 7% since April To put that in perspective, that's less than a percent under the PSX's ownership as of the Got Sony? poll on June 7th.

That actually brings up an interesting point. Both N64 and PSX ownership fell pretty drastically in the June 2007 polls compared to earlier November 2005 polls (about a 6% fall to 72% for N64 and 9% to 67% for PSX). I wonder how much that'll affect characters/games that draw their strength primarily from that era...
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/26/2007 9:29:20 PM | message detail
Samus > Link

Mark it.
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ZFS | Posted 7/26/2007 9:30:18 PM | message detail
The PSP isn't doing too shabby in the poll right now. I haven't been keeping track of the percentages in any of these polls, but for GameFAQs, 31% of the site owning one with a potential 11% more due to the redesign (planning on it, myself) seems pretty good, all things considered.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/26/2007 9:43:24 PM | message detail
I thought it looked more like a 3% increase.
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therealmnm | Posted 7/26/2007 9:44:47 PM | message detail
I lol'd at the first option before I clicked on it. I still have yet to play an actual PSP game on my PSP.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/26/2007 11:27:48 PM | message detail
If I ever get a PSP, it'll be to get old PS games on it...and maybe MGS:Acid.
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ZFS | Posted 7/26/2007 11:32:09 PM | message detail
Portable Ops is where it's at on the PSP!

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HaRRicH | Posted 7/26/2007 11:34:53 PM | message detail
What are the prices on the PSP and DS now, anyway? I've never really bothered with a handheld...except when my cousin sold me his Game Boy (original, mind you) with the GB-Camera for $25. Never got any other games for it though.....
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ZFS | Posted 7/26/2007 11:39:33 PM | message detail
$170 for a PSP and $130 for a DS.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/27/2007 12:10:50 AM | message detail
Maverick Hunter X >>> All other PSP games.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 7/27/2007 1:29:53 AM | message detail
There's no need to track percentages HM, just remember that we're already doing it for you.

http://board8wiki.com/Got_Console

If the current number holds (33.41%), that would be a 4.99% increase in ownership for the PSP in 90 days. Very solid gain... doesn't stack up to the DS's 7.22% increase over the same period, but still.

BTW, interesting to note that the GBA peaked at only 75% ownership; if the DS keeps this up, it'll have no problem toping that mark by Christmas! Then it's just a matter of trying to shoot down the original GameBoy's astronomical 80.33%...

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Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/27/2007 8:23:48 AM | message detail
I think we really need to diccuss this two questions:

1: Since Bomberman live seems to be pretty popular right now, do you guys think Bomberman will return to the character contest this year if the nominations opens soon?

2: Would he be able to win a match? Bomberman VS Gordon Freeman for example.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/27/2007 9:22:17 AM | message detail
1) Doubt it.
2) Probably, but I dunno about against Gordon.
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swirIdude | Posted 7/27/2007 9:37:43 AM | message detail
Bomberman! Bomberman! He can do what a Bomber can!

Look out! Here comes the Bomberman!
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Lopen | Posted 7/28/2007 12:40:35 AM | message detail
Give me Bomberman over Gordon Freeman easy. So what if Freeman beat Phoenix Wright? He didn't exactly do it decisively. Don't even bring up Sora. We've all seen that trick before.
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Heroic Hero Dude | Posted 7/28/2007 12:50:02 AM | message detail
Maverick Hunter X >>> All other PSP games.

Lies, Gitaroo Man.



Bomberman has a not bad chance of getting in to the contest this year if there's no silly female half, and I think he could beat a bunch of characters... like Gordon Freeman. Bomberman's not like.. Pac-Man or anything crazy strong like that, but he can beat Gordon Freeman.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/28/2007 5:59:35 AM | message detail
Don't even bring up Sora. We've all seen that trick before.

what do you think happened in that match then? is it a Master Chief thing?
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Haste_2 | Posted 7/28/2007 6:45:51 AM | message detail
Probably so. But, then look at how Sora beat Ryu Hayabusa... of course, you could say the pic factor hurt Hayabusa even more than given credit for (canceled by Sora's anti-votes), but then that'd mean his picture against Sora hurt him much worse than his pic against Jill Valentine (which I could buy), or else Jill would've REALLY dived between '03 and '04... but I'm getting into pointless territory here.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/28/2007 6:46:13 AM | message detail
Give me Bomberman over Gordon Freeman easy. So what if Freeman beat Phoenix Wright?

Bomberman would lose to Phoenix Wright.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/28/2007 6:48:01 AM | message detail
would Phoenix Wright over come close to getting 35% on Squall?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/28/2007 6:48:48 AM | message detail
Unlikely.

But neither would Bomberman.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/28/2007 6:50:04 AM | message detail
I don't think Bomberman is really that low. I'm sure he would have AT LEAST gave Gordon a much better match.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/28/2007 6:53:29 AM | message detail
Actually, Phoenix is already higher in the stats than Bomberman.

Given the massive increase in the popularity of Ace Attorney since the last contest (and the release of Justice for All), Phoenix definitely beats Bomberman. Who I doubt is as popular as he was back in 2k3.
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Haste_2 | Posted 7/28/2007 6:57:15 AM | message detail
Ooh, as much as I'd love to see Bomberman get another victory... I'd love even more to see Phoenix Wright do Bomberman.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/28/2007 7:01:50 AM | message detail
Actually, Phoenix is already higher in the stats than Bomberman.

are we talking about in 2k4? because, Bomberman is behind SFF in that one. but 35% on a Squall (any, at all) seems unreachable to me when I look at Phoenix Wright.

though I can see if he wins through a boost, but it'd be a close match. Bomberman isn't really fodder, ya know.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2007 8:54:25 AM | message detail
Phoenix Wright's position in the stats is useless... unless you think Gordon is beating Alucard or even with Ryu Hayabusa (who, heck, is pretty damn overrated himself thanks to Yoshi). Gordon going 55-45 on his 2k5 self - who's already going 68-32 on his 2k4 self - is pretty telling. It's just not a reliable stat, and the same goes for Phoenix.

I love PW myself. But I can't see him taking Bomberman.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 7/28/2007 10:38:06 AM | message detail
PW would job to Servbot.
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Osfan | Posted 7/28/2007 11:13:31 AM | message detail
Yeah I love PW but to think his stat is legit is really too much of a stretch even for me. I mean freeman is like the most unreliable stat in the history of the contest, he is a complete crapshoot everytime. Hopefully this contest we can get a pointing picture (which is alot more legit of a picture for Phoenix) and someone a little less unreliable then Gordon. With a new game and a decent seed (remember last contest nerfed all the male seeds) he might be able to do well maybe even win if given the right match...
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 7/28/2007 11:43:57 AM | message detail
No. He won't. PW isn't winning any matches around here.

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HaRRicH | Posted 7/28/2007 11:56:45 AM | message detail
I'm more skeptical of PW's value against Gordon than Gordon's against Sora...but I'll leave it at that. More or less, I don't trust PW's strength from last year. He might be stronger than last year...but that doesn't make him strong.


Can we make a list of how handheld-only characters have done in contests? There's PW, Soma, Felix, Isaac...and I dunno who else, but only Felix had done something noteworthy (besides losing to Gordon Freeman) from those four and I figure there are more characters that fit the handheld-bill.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/28/2007 2:46:58 PM | message detail
There's always Pokemon's match against Metroid if you want to see handheld power.

Phoenix Wright's position in the stats is useless... unless you think Gordon is beating Alucard or even with Ryu Hayabusa (who, heck, is pretty damn overrated himself thanks to Yoshi). Gordon going 55-45 on his 2k5 self - who's already going 68-32 on his 2k4 self - is pretty telling. It's just not a reliable stat, and the same goes for Phoenix.

Agreed. That's why I talked so much about why Phoenix would increase.
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 7/28/2007 2:59:50 PM | message detail
Well, as he keeps releasing games in America, he'll get more and more noticed, but I think as far as main page popularity, with his 3rd game on the verizon, that it will be his ceiling of popularity. y the time the 3rd has been out a month, his fanbase should be well established, if it wasn't already (though I think he still has time to gain a fair amount of support).

But, I'd say Wright can beat someone of....uhhh.... Duke Nukem-type proportions >_>


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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/28/2007 3:06:07 PM | message detail
Meh, I'm pretty sure that PW's reprint massively increased its sales. I wish I knew for certain how much...but as a comparison, FFT's sales went from ~200,000 to over a million with the re-release. Combinining that with JFA, I'd say that he'd get a pretty nice boost.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/28/2007 4:00:27 PM | message detail
There's always Pokemon's match against Metroid if you want to see handheld power.

though that's true, there's no telling how strong Metroid Prime as a series could have been thanks to SFF.

that, and Pokemon is a whole new level from PW.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2007 4:49:54 PM | message detail
Agreed. That's why I talked so much about why Phoenix would increase.

But he's increasing from what is optimistically fodder. Worst case scenario, he's very bad fodder. Bomberman's never been able to hold his own with any true midcarders, but he's been well above the Max Paynes and Ryo Hazukis of the world. I could see Phoenix beating characters around that level now, but Bomberman's a whole different ball game.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/28/2007 4:51:51 PM | message detail
Eh, maybe. But I doubt Bomberman's nearly as strong as he was when we saw him last.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/28/2007 5:41:03 PM | message detail
Er, Metroid*. dammit I'm too used to Prime.
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ZFS | Posted 7/28/2007 6:01:57 PM | message detail
I'd take Gordon over Bomberman no problem -- but I'd take Bomberman over Wright just as easy. I'm skeptical of Phoenix's ability to beat anyone with some recognition, or a name for themselves.

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Haste_2 | Posted 7/28/2007 7:49:55 PM | message detail
I think it's fair enough to measure Phoenix Wright of last year from 2K5 Gordon, placing Phoenix at 19.04% on BL. I could see Phoenix being at that level at that time. PW:AA is still #9 on the DS FAQs here now, and since that isn't a game that you need a FAQ a lot for, I think it indicates it's pretty popular at this site. Plus, the fads and hype...

...Gordon '05 beats himself 68/32 not just because of HL2, but also because Gordon of '04 was underrated.

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