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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 442

LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2007 7:34:30 PM | message detail
Weren't both of those Star Fox games (Adventures, in particular) poorly received? I don't think they sold that well either, but I could be mistaken. Sure, Fox would be stronger than when Cloud tripled him in 2002, but the thought of him contending with Master Chief has never crossed my mind.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
*waits for Games Contest announcement*
HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2007 7:37:07 PM | message detail
Adventure was, yes, though it at least reached to another genre...ha, kind of the DoC of the Star Fox series. Assault was liked, although not loved like SF64 was.

No idea on sales.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2007 7:38:35 PM | message detail
I seem to recall people disliking too much non-Arwing missions in Assault, but I don't know much else about it. And I really doubt non-Star Fox fans bought Adventures simply because it was a different style of game.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
*waits for Games Contest announcement*
MegatokyoEd | Posted 6/16/2007 7:40:09 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Adventures did around a million+. Assault pretty much bombed.
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ZFS | Posted 6/16/2007 7:41:35 PM | message detail
Yeah. Assault sold really badly, and then Adventures sold really well, but no one liked it. Heh.

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Called "Godslayer" by some, feared by most.
greatone10 | Posted 6/16/2007 7:42:01 PM | message detail
Don't forget Command with its awful stylus controls.
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Rufus Shinra made me look like Jade in the Guru contest. Wario/Monkey Island for 2K7!
therealmnm | Posted 6/16/2007 7:42:23 PM | message detail
I'm going to comment on bits and pieces as I catch up. This one caught my eye.

I just don't know if it's fair to compare him to Dante all the time and talk like there's no doubt he'll follow in his footsteps. I mean, he's not Dante, so he doesn't have to do the same things he did. Sure, it's probably the best comparison to make, but I wouldn't talk like it's absolute either.

It's not simply comparing him to Dante's path as much as it is pointing out that after his first game, Kratos is stronger than Dante in 2k2 after his first game. So the comparison of why each character is liked (Dante's coolness, etc.) doesn't really mean much in the conversation. For whatever reason Kratos is liked, he already has made a stronger splash onto the scene, and now he has God of War 2, and God of War 3 and PSP on the horizon. It's not guaranteed that he will improve as much as Dante (although I think it is highly likely), but it is more than fair for the comparison. They both are based on the PS2, same genre, multiple games (and some on the horizon), and even though their characters and design are different, they both opened up at near the same strength, so I don't think that really matters.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 6/16/2007 7:48:21 PM | message detail
Adventures was completely awesome! It gets way too much hate, because it just wasn't what people wanted, and were expecting, but it was still really good. (I don't care what you say!) Assault......... eh. The single player mode left a lot to be desired, and even the arwing missions weren't that great. Multiplayer could be fun as hell if you got together with 3 other people, but yeah, I really don't see either doing much of anything for Fox.

I'd still like to see him return though, he has much more potential then the same bottom of the barrel crap we see over and over again, and while I'd take DK > Fox, I wouldn't be completely shocked if he pulled off the upset.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2007 7:49:36 PM | message detail
I actually bought Adventures as well, and I didn't think it was THAT bad. Never finished it though.
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*waits for Games Contest announcement*
GyratingGrandma | Posted 6/16/2007 7:53:14 PM | message detail
I don't know... I always really enjoyed it. Sure it's not the best platformer out there, but give it to me over Zelda any day of the week. The atmosphere was totally kickass, and it was really fun while it lasted.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
ZFS | Posted 6/16/2007 8:05:24 PM | message detail
Adventures was decent, I guess. It was pretty much Ocarina of Time with Star Fox characters and whatnot.

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Called "Godslayer" by some, feared by most.
HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2007 8:06:57 PM | message detail
I've been thinking about picking it up sometime -- I've seen used copies of it in good condition for $12, and I hear it's similar to the 3D-LoZ games...just, ya know, not as good, ha.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 6/16/2007 8:07:00 PM | message detail
Except better.

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ZFS | Posted 6/16/2007 8:08:55 PM | message detail
It was if you liked your helpers being baby dinosaurs and your main character wielding a beat stick!

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HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2007 8:12:50 PM | message detail
So...similar to helpers being Gorons and your main character wielding a Deku stick?
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therealmnm | Posted 6/16/2007 8:15:42 PM | message detail
Adventures is pretty cool. It's a standard Zelda type game. Throw Link in there instead of Fox, Zelda instead of Krystal, and make it Hyrule with its different races instead of Sauria and its dinosaur tribes, leave the core world and game design the same, and people would have eaten it up. I still need to beat it too...
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ZFS | Posted 6/16/2007 8:16:14 PM | message detail
Haha. Meet the Navi of SFA...

http://guidesmedia.ign.com/guides/16140/images/tricky.jpg


oh yah

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Called "Godslayer" by some, feared by most.
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/16/2007 8:17:35 PM | message detail
I could never get that stupid dinosaur to do what I wanted him to do.
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*waits for Games Contest announcement*
GyratingGrandma | Posted 6/16/2007 8:19:30 PM | message detail
Tricky >>>> Navi.

YOU COULD BEAT HIS FACE IN WITH THAT LITTLE RUBBER BALL.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 6/16/2007 8:41:03 PM | message detail
Beating dinosaurs with a stick was ****ing rad.
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Yesmar | Posted 6/16/2007 9:09:04 PM | message detail
I don't think Adventures was bad or anything. It did pretty well, and exposed Fox to a new audience without alienating any of his old fans, so I think that it'd give him a boost in the contest should we ever see him again.

Plus, the game had an awesome soundtrack. And the Test of Fear was such a cool idea for a task.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/16/2007 10:26:57 PM | message detail
I must now know what this Test of Fear is.
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swirIdude | Posted 6/17/2007 8:02:13 AM | message detail
What? Someone besides me like Star Fox Adventures?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/17/2007 8:28:41 AM | message detail
I haven't really been following stats topics lately, but could someone explain the whole "Mega Man overrated/Sonic underrated" thing Leon keeps bringing up?

TuRtLe
~~~
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/17/2007 8:37:49 AM | message detail
As for Fox and PoP, I can see both of them returning in the next character battle (barring anything stupid like company caps/female brackets). I can't see Prince changing much from where he was last year though, whereas Fox has a pretty good chance of being a decent midcarder thanks to Nintendo boostiness.

TuRtLe
~~~
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Luis_Sera89 | Posted 6/17/2007 8:47:37 AM | message detail
The Trial of Fear was clever. It had you trying to keep a green marker in a certain area of a bar by tilting the control stick in the right direction. At the same time though on screen were a number of 'distractions' representing the 'fear' part of it that made concentrating very tricky indeed.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 6/17/2007 8:52:49 AM | message detail
All this SFA talk has really put me in the mood to go back and play it... I think I'm actually going to.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Big Bob | Posted 6/17/2007 9:20:17 AM | message detail
Mega Man being overrated is due to his match with Snake, where, despite him bombing the entire contest, he actually did decently in, considering Snake's boost. I think the biggest hint to MM being overrated is Ryu. Even after it was proven that Bowser was overrated, Ryu somehow shot back up in strength for no reason at all? That doesn't even make sense. And there really was little to no Kingdom Hearts II boost at all, so why would Sora seem so strong all of a sudden?

As for Sonic being underrated, I remember how much hate he got during his match with Crono (SO MUCH WHINING). It's possible that the "revenge votes" stopped Sonic from doing better than he did, and since Snake and Nintendo are starting to intertwine, Snake probably could have stolen some of Sonic's votes as well. What supports this is that Vincent and Auron both seem a lot weaker than they should have been, despite having reasons to at least stay constant.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/17/2007 10:12:41 AM | message detail
Mega Man being overrated is due to his match with Snake, where, despite him bombing the entire contest, he actually did decently in, considering Snake's boost. I think the biggest hint to MM being overrated is Ryu. Even after it was proven that Bowser was overrated, Ryu somehow shot back up in strength for no reason at all? That doesn't even make sense. And there really was little to no Kingdom Hearts II boost at all, so why would Sora seem so strong all of a sudden?

I fail to see why people fail to believe that it's possible for Ryu/Zero to bomb against Nintendo. I mean besides Samus (who doesn't SFF anyone, plus it was 2k2), Bowser was the first Nintendo character that Ryu went up against. And he consequently bombed. But then he turns around and gets the same percentage against Mega Man as he did for Bowser? Anyway you look at it, Bowser isn't at Mega Man's strength. As for Sora? While Kingdom Hearts 2 didn't boost everyone who decided to show their face in the game, it definitely boosted Sora's popularity. I mean, he actually became likable in the game, since he decided to suddenly turn uber in that game.

I'm not saying that Ryu is suddenly back at his 2k3/2k4 levels (Rikku did give him a fight). But I do think something is up with that. It's the same with Zero, only he didn't have the benefit of the doubt of going up against someone non-Nintendo in 2k6. But with as bad as he looked against Mario, he looked worse against Luigi to the point that Zero 2k5 beats Zero 2k6 rather easily. Yeah, Zero isn't a noble-nine breaker anymore and the Mega Man series isn't gaining popularity, but have we ever seen a mainstay old school character fall that much within the course of a year for no reason at all?

Of course, I had suspicion of there being something weird with Luigi/Zero, but I thought that Luigi would be on the chump end of that in the same way that Yoshi was on the chump end against Mega Man. Wrong about that one! Hopefully Zero gets to go up against someone non-Nintendo so we can get some clarification. That's if he GETS into the contest. I know the female thing screwed up the contest, but that 7-seed has me worried...
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therealmnm | Posted 6/17/2007 10:24:53 AM | message detail
How much stronger do you think Vincent should have been???? Taking down Crono? He's already damn close....
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/17/2007 11:14:32 AM | message detail
Mega Man being overrated is due to his match with Snake, where, despite him bombing the entire contest, he actually did decently in, considering Snake's boost. I think the biggest hint to MM being overrated is Ryu. Even after it was proven that Bowser was overrated, Ryu somehow shot back up in strength for no reason at all? That doesn't even make sense. And there really was little to no Kingdom Hearts II boost at all, so why would Sora seem so strong all of a sudden?

Define "bombing the entire contest" plz. He performed at expectations against a newcomer from a relatively new, Square game, then disappointed slightly against a Ryu who looks to have rebounded from his mysterious fall last year, and then "disappointed" against a Sora fresh off a critically acclaimed sequel where he dropped the whiney, stupid persona he had from the first game.

I don't think the anomoly lies in Ryu's sudden rebound, but rather in his sudden fall last year, which as mnm said, can be attributed to SNES SFF, because we all know Street Fighter's hayday was on the SNES.

As for Sonic being underrated, I remember how much hate he got during his match with Crono (SO MUCH WHINING). It's possible that the "revenge votes" stopped Sonic from doing better than he did, and since Snake and Nintendo are starting to intertwine, Snake probably could have stolen some of Sonic's votes as well. What supports this is that Vincent and Auron both seem a lot weaker than they should have been, despite having reasons to at least stay constant.

I think the "revenge vote" theory is a load of crock, especially nowadays when the contest following crowd is a very very small portion of total voters. The "revenge" theory may have held some water in 2k2 or 2k4, but not nowadays.

As for Vincent and Auron, they both looked pretty damn good to me if you assume a constant Sonic. They would be right near the level they were last year.

TuRtLe
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transience | Posted 6/17/2007 11:15:03 AM | message detail
ahhhhh here we go again

ahhhhhhh
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/17/2007 11:50:13 AM | message detail
I don't think the anomoly lies in Ryu's sudden rebound, but rather in his sudden fall last year, which as mnm said, can be attributed to SNES SFF, because we all know Street Fighter's hayday was on the SNES.

I acknowledge the fact that Bowser/Ryu didn't go as expected and is bound to be some kind of anomaly. However, I don't think it's fair to call it SNES-SFF. Samus/Ryu was brought up -- arguably Samus's biggest game was on the SNES, but she didn't SFF him (or Ken, for that matter). If SNES-SFF was a true force, Crono would have beat Bowser worse than he did (though it may be debatable that Bowser under-performed in that match). As far as we can tell, Bowser didn't SFF Chun-Li, so that's a knock on the issue as well.

I think we agree 2k5 wasn't right for Ryu...but unless it's a specific Bowser > Ryu overlap that doesn't necessarily include Bowser > SF characters or a type of general SNES superiority, then I don't know where to point the finger to blame. That might be a good thing though, considering we wouldn't have to deal with the factor again, ha.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2007 12:35:26 PM | message detail
Meh, I don't particularly buy this "Well, they just bomb against Nintendo!" stuff. Just sounds like a convenient excuse to me.

And I'm not particularly concerned about Mega Man being overrated as much as I am about Sonic being underrated. Saying the Blue Bomber overperformed against Snake seems odd to say since he still got stomped. However, Mega Man's half of the bracket looks too strong when compared to what you see in Sonic's half of the bracket. I mean, you see crazy stuff like Sora (Mega Man's half) = Ganondorf (Sonic's half) > Auron (Sonic's half), and Ryu (Mega Man's half) = Bowser (Sonic's half). Sure, I believe Sora probably boosted a good bit from KHII, but he's not beating Ganondorf or Auron. And I also think Bowser probably overperformed on Ryu in 2005, but not to the point where those two were equal beforehand. 2005 Rikku = 2006 Leon Kennedy? No thanks, BRO!
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/17/2007 1:00:52 PM | message detail
It's worth pointing out that Sora and Aeris were indirectly equal, but that doesn't mean Sora had a chance against her. Who knows, it might be the same thing here with Sora and Auron now...

...and also, Bowser/Ryu were very much supposed to have a real close match. Didn't you even take Ryu in that match? Seeing Ryu rebound to the way he once was and seeing Bowser have a much less controversial run in the bracket makes it look like they're about on the same page again.


I'm not against the idea of Mega Man being over-rated, but I don't think Sonic is under-rated unless the rest of the male half is under-rated...and I'm personally pretty comfortable with where the characters have landed. This year's gonna be a cluster**** anyway, so I don't want to sweat it too much until we have more reason to doubt.




You know what? We need to just do a pros/cons sometime about moving Mega Man down, Sonic up, and leaving them alone. That would make debates easier without having to repeat ourselves all the time on the matter, plus it'd be nice to compare in bullet-form instead of paragraph-form.
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voltch | Posted 6/17/2007 1:02:59 PM | message detail
how many years till the noble nine cracks?
without counting Jay Solano's victory over link of course.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 6/17/2007 1:05:07 PM | message detail
did you seriously just ask that question

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mmm feel the vibration baby
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/17/2007 1:11:54 PM | message detail
...and also, Bowser/Ryu were very much supposed to have a real close match. Didn't you even take Ryu in that match? Seeing Ryu rebound to the way he once was and seeing Bowser have a much less controversial run in the bracket makes it look like they're about on the same page again.

"Were" is the key word in your statement. Yes, I took Ryu then, but it's obvious that I was wrong. I just don't expect things to have turned around since then. Like I said, this whole Rikku = Leon Kennedy thing doesn't bode well with me. I personally think he could do better than 31% on Samus. And nah, I don't really think they're QUITE on the same page. Another reason I believe in the underestimation of Sonic's half is that I absolutely do not buy Mega Man > Crono.

And BT is full of it if he thinks Mega Man performed "at expectations" against Axel. People were very disappointed with that performance.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 6/17/2007 1:22:28 PM | message detail
Even if all his matches up to that point were disapointing to most, it's not like they're can't be a reason attributed to each match. Axel was a newcomer, with completely unknown strength, everyone knows Ryu was messed up the year before, how much is up for you to decide, and Sora had plenty of reason to get a very nice sized boost. I'm also not just saying this because of his match with Snake, and how he ended up in the stats either. I definitely brought it up multiple times throughout the contest when everyone was calling for MM's head, and ultimate destruction. And while Snake still won the match, and pretty easily, there's nothing concrete that tells me he overperformed on Snake. Yes, of the people look slightly high in the stats from his division, but I really don't think he's overrated, and especially not to the extent that everyone else probably thinks he is. Maybe a percent or so, but absolutely nothing more.


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GyratingGrandma | Posted 6/17/2007 1:22:57 PM | message detail
also i will never spell disappointing correctly in my life, except for right now


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transience | Posted 6/17/2007 1:24:49 PM | message detail
meh, i think everyone looks at the entire body of work next year instead of an x-stat number. honestly, who 'overperformed' or didn't really doesn't matter at all.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/17/2007 1:25:00 PM | message detail
I don't buy Mega Man > Crono either, but the point that they're all close together anyway in the stats tells me statistical variation and the idea that stats don't decide how voters vote is good enough for me. Let Mega stay a little ahead of Crono in the stats -- I'm still taking Crono in a rematch.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 6/17/2007 1:25:16 PM | message detail
hey tranny wanna fight
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mmm feel the vibration baby
therealmnm | Posted 6/17/2007 1:30:43 PM | message detail
Even if all his matches up to that point were disapointing to most, it's not like they're can't be a reason attributed to each match. Axel was a newcomer, with completely unknown strength, everyone knows Ryu was messed up the year before, how much is up for you to decide, and Sora had plenty of reason to get a very nice sized boost. I'm also not just saying this because of his match with Snake, and how he ended up in the stats either. I definitely brought it up multiple times throughout the contest when everyone was calling for MM's head, and ultimate destruction. And while Snake still won the match, and pretty easily, there's nothing concrete that tells me he overperformed on Snake. Yes, of the people look slightly high in the stats from his division, but I really don't think he's overrated, and especially not to the extent that everyone else probably thinks he is. Maybe a percent or so, but absolutely nothing more.

Totally agree with this post. Besides, I'm tired of arguing about something just because the x-stats don't look right. 2 characters can be right next to each other in the x-stats and it could still turn into a 55/45 beating. We often forget that x-stats aren't absolute. There are tons of factors that go into each and every match besides indirect strength. And it's probably impossible to define all of those factors unless we have tons of data on each character against multiple characters within the same year. And given the nature of a 64-character contests... that simply isn't happening.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/17/2007 1:31:49 PM | message detail
And tranny sums up my post with far less words before I can even finish typing

*throws a poison dart at his neck*
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 6/17/2007 1:32:53 PM | message detail
i totally just noticed I wrote "they're"

god i am such a moron kill me
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/17/2007 1:34:32 PM | message detail
i would but our sex just wouldnt be the same
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/17/2007 2:35:02 PM | message detail
I'm curious...given Mega Man's Nintendo connection (and the additional Capcom connection >_>) shouldn't he have overperformed on Ryu by at least as much as Bowser did?
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/17/2007 2:56:30 PM | message detail
Ryu = Noble Niner CONFIRMED


Nah, seriously, interesting thought...especially since Mega Man arguably could have gotten more popularity from the SNES than Bowser did (SMRPG is the only thing keeping me from saying it for sure). This just makes Bowser/Ryu all the weirder.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 6/17/2007 3:12:32 PM | message detail
i would but our sex just wouldnt be the same

it would be hotter
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mmm feel the vibration baby
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