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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 441

HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 11:04:44 PM | message detail
I'd bet Jay Solano could get at least 7% on Mario. no joke.

Really? Considering Tanner got 5% on Solid-2k4? Not my prediction, guarantee you that. In a giant board effort that had been anticipated for over a year, Jay Solano couldn't get 2,000 votes against Link. I know board-based matters don't matter so much, but why would even another 1,000 want to vote for him a year after the joke was funny, especially against another crucial Nintendo character like Mario?


I'd bet all that Ness love from the original comes from the fact that he was so good in that game.

I'm sure alot of it does come from that, but there are high-tiered characters that don't get near that level of popularity (Jigglypuff) and low-tiered that have lots of fans (Kirby in SSBM...was he good in SSB? I don't remember). Ness got both.


You know, it's entirely possible that Bowser does better now that he did in 2003, or Mario would've done worse in 2003 than he did in 2005.

True, and it's possible SSB wasn't AS big of a force then as it was in the Series Contest, so...yeah, too many variables for even somebody like me...

...but since you brought different Mario's up, let me mention another comparison that we can already prepare to throw out the window: I'd prefer ~17% on Mario-2k5 over 18~ on Mario-2k2. I'm not saying Ness > DK or that it's a credible comparison, but I don't think anybody's taking Wario > DK and I don't think Ness is too far away from DK (I've thought that for a long time, anyway).
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transience | Posted 6/7/2007 11:10:42 PM | message detail
you missed the point -- that "not Mario" gets a small number of votes. I'm among those!

Solid Snake is a good opponent. Mega Man's a better one. Mario is not universally loved though, there are some people who are like "eww".
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xyzzy
*waits patiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 11:13:00 PM | message detail
Soulless. That's what those people are!

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Called "Godslayer" by some, feared by most.
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 11:18:57 PM | message detail
(Kirby in SSBM...was he good in SSB? I don't remember)

Kirby is considered the best character in SSB by many (though it's debatable, for sure).

I'd prefer ~17% on Mario-2k5 over 18~ on Mario-2k2. I'm not saying Ness > DK or that it's a credible comparison, but I don't think anybody's taking Wario > DK and I don't think Ness is too far away from DK (I've thought that for a long time, anyway).

There are reasons why Mario crushes DK harder than Ness. The amount of SFF sustained has nothing to do with strength. It doesn't happen proportionally. Cloud SFF'd Squall much harder than he hit Auron, but (at least in 2003 and 2004), Squall wins that match against Auron.

And no, Ness isn't getting 45% or so on Master Chief, so DK wins.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 11:19:46 PM | message detail
Yeah, but you're suggesting about 5,000 people vote like that who aren't joke-voting already. Mega Man would be a better one, yeah...but I ain't convinced Solid Snake is, Tanner or no. His gameplay throws some people off of the series (like you, I think) while the plot can throw many more off...though, to be fair, I don't know anybody who doesn't like Solid. An odd combo, I tell ya.....
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 11:24:40 PM | message detail
Solid Snake was the perfect character to face Tanner because they shared a console. Basically, he stole away his "I don't like Nintendo" votes.

And Solid Snake would be perfect to face anyone now! He's got Square AND Nintendo on his side now!
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
transience | Posted 6/7/2007 11:25:41 PM | message detail
yeah, but it's not all about the games, even. it's about the character. even if you haven't played Snake's games, you know who he is. same with Mega Man.

Mario is all LETSA GO MAMA MIA shut up
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xyzzy
*waits patiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 11:26:09 PM | message detail
How did Snake get in good with Square?

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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 11:26:55 PM | message detail
I'm thinking giving Mario a voice wasn't the best of Nintendo's ideas.

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Called "Godslayer" by some, feared by most.
HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 11:27:08 PM | message detail
I'll agree with DK...


And no, Ness isn't getting 45% or so on Master Chief, so DK wins.

...but I think that's wrong. He wouldn't get as close as DK did in 2k5, but Ness gets a good deal closer to MC than a mere 45%. Ness would show up ready against DK too.
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transience | Posted 6/7/2007 11:27:46 PM | message detail
when it comes to Nintendo, the best character is no character. :)

god, Mario was never the same after 64.
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xyzzy
*waits patiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
transience | Posted 6/7/2007 11:28:50 PM | message detail
okay, it took me ~150 posts to figure out where the misunderstanding was with the argument, and I just found it: you think Ness is a midcarder. I (and most others) think Ness is at, like, 21 or 22%.
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xyzzy
*waits patiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 11:29:20 PM | message detail
How about that Super Mario Sunshine voice acting? aww yeah

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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 11:29:37 PM | message detail
How did Snake get in good with Square?

Beats me, but FFVII/MGS and Sephy/Liquid both seem to attest that he has! Maybe it's that whole "We like REAL characters!" mentality that they share!
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 11:30:59 PM | message detail
And while I don't normally care for Mario's voice acting, the sound bytes in the Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi games are hilarious for Mario.

But I'm not sure if you're thinking too highly of Ness or not highly enough of the Chief to give him 45% there.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
transience | Posted 6/7/2007 11:31:08 PM | message detail
I've actually heard people say that MGS is an RPG because they both have indepth stories. I guess there's some fanbase overlap there or something.

I don't think it's very significant though.
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xyzzy
*waits patiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 11:31:54 PM | message detail
Maybe it's that whole "We like REAL characters!" mentality that they share!

Haha. The difference between the Square and Nintendo fanbase right there !!

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Called "Godslayer" by some, feared by most.
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 11:35:04 PM | message detail
People say that Zelda is an RPG, too!

And I was just looking at it the other day, but I don't think I noticed it at the time. After Snake was eliminated from the Battle Royale, his vote distribution between the two was very close: 10.36 to Cloud and 9.28 to Link. I didn't expect that.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 11:36:35 PM | message detail
Looks like some SSBB trailer magic at work!

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Called "Godslayer" by some, feared by most.
HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 11:36:46 PM | message detail
Maybe it's that whole "We like REAL characters!" mentality that they share!

I LIVE THROUGH THIS ARM AND CONTROL THE WORLDS INFORMATION



I think it's more "over-rating" Ness than under-rating MC. I don't think Ness is a power-house, but I could see him coming a little shy of DK.
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transience | Posted 6/7/2007 11:38:11 PM | message detail
the idea of a SSBB trailer drawing votes away from Link and to Solid Snake is pretty ridiculous. I really don't think there's much of an overlap there.

'swhy I used Squall as my 2k6 base!
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xyzzy
*waits patiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 11:39:22 PM | message detail
Oh, I didn't actually believe that. But, hey, we've hit rock bottom with this Wario/Ness discussion, so I figure it couldn't hurt to bring that old thing up again!

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Called "Godslayer" by some, feared by most.
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 11:40:13 PM | message detail
the idea of a SSBB trailer drawing votes away from Link and to Solid Snake is pretty ridiculous.

I just think those Link fans saw him crapping his tights when Solid Snake came out of that cardboard box in the SSBB trailer (in fear, not with glee like we Snake fans) and realized who the better character was.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
transience | Posted 6/7/2007 11:41:01 PM | message detail
don't make me bring up old arguments..

VINCENT'S AN OPTIONAL CHARACTER LOL
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xyzzy
*waits patiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 11:41:39 PM | message detail
I agree, for the rest of that day Link wore yellow and brown tights.
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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 11:41:58 PM | message detail
Ah, never forget. Those arguments were great.

WHO GOT VINCENT ANYWAY

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Called "Godslayer" by some, feared by most.
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 11:42:19 PM | message detail
GameFAQs doesn't play Warcraft!

...And they still don't! Bah.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
transience | Posted 6/7/2007 11:42:47 PM | message detail
MMO addicts are too addicted to their game to stop playing for two seconds and vote.
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xyzzy
*waits patiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 11:43:13 PM | message detail
An optional character like Vincent beat the main character of a Final Fantasy game like Squall? Pfft. Nonsense!

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Called "Godslayer" by some, feared by most.
HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 11:43:36 PM | message detail
darn you planet gamecube
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 11:45:03 PM | message detail
An optional character like Vincent beat the main character of a Final Fantasy game like Squall? Pfft. Nonsense!

An optional character like Vincent beat an optional character like Magus? NONSENSE!
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 11:47:57 PM | message detail
Crono managed to lose against Mario last year, so I'm going to take Kefka to the Elite Eight since FF6 > CT anyway.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 11:50:02 PM | message detail
DUCK HUNT WASNT EVEN ITS OWN GAME AND YOU HAD TO HAVE THE ZAPPER TO PLAY IT IT SUCKS
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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 11:51:11 PM | message detail
http://www.cs.hmc.edu/~dodds/projects/RobS04/DuckHunt/images/dog_grass.gif

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Called "Godslayer" by some, feared by most.
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 11:53:02 PM | message detail
That blasted dog should've been in the Villains Contest. I guarantee it'd break 55% on Kefka.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
Kaxon | Posted 6/8/2007 12:10:14 AM | message detail
We need this four-pack:

Zelda
Tifa

Bowser
Ganondorf


I think I'd rather see:
Zelda
Ganondorf

Tifa
Bowser

...although really, the problem is that only one character can beat Ganondorf per contest. Any arrangement that results in him losing in the first round is alright with me.
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Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin
*waits impatiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
therealmnm | Posted 6/8/2007 12:19:23 AM | message detail
He's well-liked and respected in the series, and the idea that people who love SSB/M can't like a lesser-known character from it over a more well-known character that sucks out loud like Bowser is silly to me.

Again, Bowser sucking in SSBM has next to zero influence on whether somebody likes him or not. If somebody is going to like Ness more than Bowser, Bowser sucking in SSBM is not going to be the reason for that. SSB and SSBM for liking Ness? Sure. But Bowser sucking in SSBM doesn't have a thing to do with that influence. I'm 100% certain of that. Bowser's usefulness in SSBM plays extremely little in his popularity. Sorry HaRR, I just fail to see why you keep bringing up Bowser sucking as an argument. Ness's popularity due to SSBM is independent of what Bowser draws from it.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/8/2007 12:24:20 AM | message detail
Err... I guess I'm beating a dead horse.... Jumped back in too late.
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Kaxon | Posted 6/8/2007 1:34:38 AM | message detail
Solid Snake is a good opponent. Mega Man's a better one.

At this point, I question that. Mega Man hasn't blue bomber'd anyone in years, while Snake in only getting stronger (and the Tanner match was in his worst year!). I think Snake probably has the biggest blowout potential of anyone at this point, except maybe Link.

Although I would love to see MM put up another 90%+ win just to prove me wrong...
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Tia mi aven Moridin isainde vadin
*waits impatiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
Karma Hunter | Posted 6/8/2007 2:09:35 AM | message detail
At this point, while I think MM's fanbase is one of the - if not THE - best for setting up blowouts, the Blue Bomber just seems too weak at this point to pull a 90% out against all but the weakest of opponents. Those that he really killed either had reason to be overperformed on anyway (the Pac-Man effect translated to the dramatically weaker Ms. Pac-Man, characters with potential fanbase overlap like EWJ) or were just uber-pathetic (yay Serious Sam). If he rebounds at all, of course...

And I'd probably agree that Snake's got the best blowout potential, but it's not like he doesn't get his fair share of anti-votes, especially now - there are a LOT of SSB fans that don't want to see third-party characters anywhere near the game, especially over Sonic or Mega Man or... (you get the point). I kinda doubt he could replicate the Tanner performance.
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transience | Posted 6/8/2007 2:12:14 AM | message detail
it's all about the opponent, really. Link could have dropped the same number on Serious Sam, he just never got the chance.
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xyzzy
*waits patiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
Karma Hunter | Posted 6/8/2007 2:17:32 AM | message detail
Well, yeah, but that's the difference between an "ideal" fanbase for blowouts and just being WAY stronger than anything else. Link's definitely got the best blowout potential strength-wise (whoda thunk... stronger characters make for bigger blowouts!?), it's just the anti-voting thing that more or less assures he won't make a Tanner out of anything.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 6/8/2007 2:23:57 AM | message detail
as far as x-stats go, I always thought a guy like Knuckles or Auron would be the best. well, that's what I thought back in 2005 -- both characters have obviously boosted since then. maybe Yoshi or something..
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xyzzy
*waits patiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
Ngamer64 | Posted 6/8/2007 2:54:29 AM | message detail
Time for another exciting edition of

Trend Watch!

Ouch! Forget what I said in that (relatively) rosy review of the PS3's growth last night- the Day Vote was very unkind to the console. I was blasting the 360 and PS3 for only managing 1% growth in the past two months as compared to the Wii's 4+... but as it turns out the PS3 actually only managed a 0.34% improvement! Keep up the good work Sony, another percentage and you'll have topped the mighty Virtual Boy!

Now let's take a look at which company is doing a better job of retaining their core fanbase here at GameFAQs. As we all know the PS2 is the most-owned console in the site's history... but how well has the PS2 been able to hold on to that advantage compared to the GC? And have more former N64 owners left the site compared to PSXers? Let's see here.

In the past year, the GameFAQs ever-owned market share has dropped...

1.49% for the PS2.

0.84% for the GameCube.

Nintendo gains a slight edge since the last Summer Contest, at least as regards the most recent system. Now let's take it back 10+ years and see how things hold up.

In the past 1.5 years, the GameFAQs ever-owned market share has dropped...

5.84% for the Nintendo 64. Pretty rough!

9.02% for the Playstation. Whoa, nasty! A gain for Nintendo yet again, and this time by a wide margin.
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Speaking of that last number, could be interesting to consider how it would apply to the coming Game Contest. We all know FF7 has never been remade, and now we know that the PSX (which already trailed the N64 by 3% at its peak) has taken a major hit since '05... now only 67.23% of those who visit and vote in polls have ever owned a Playstation. The N64 meanwhile is still sitting pretty at over 73%... PLUS OoT was available in 2 different packages on the GameCube... PLUS it's sold like hotcakes at $10 on the Wii.

Is FF7 really the #1 game on the site anymore? Really?

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HaRRicH | Posted 6/8/2007 8:41:33 AM | message detail
Good find Ngamer. I'd take LoZ:OoT in a rematch...but I'd still imagine it's close. You can't count out a game that, in the past three years, has won both game contests with different formats. Plus, as odd as it sounds...even if FF7 lost the rematch, FF7 is still the foundation of the site, you know what I mean? It would be a big struggle to LoZ:OoT to overcome that despite those favoring stats.
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wavedash101 | Posted 6/8/2007 10:24:54 AM | message detail
Plus Crisis Core is coming out as well...
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 6/8/2007 11:00:00 AM | message detail
All I know right now is the first three games I picked up off my Virtual Console were Star Fox 64, Punchout, and Castlevania <_<
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Kaxon | Posted 6/8/2007 11:06:20 AM | message detail
I'd take OOT in a rematch... mostly because I have no faith in matches going the way I want them to anymore. Back in 2004 I was one of the people who thought you were nuts if you picked a winner other than FF VII.
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*waits impatiently for CJayC to announce a Game Contest*
LeonhartForever | Posted 6/8/2007 12:40:44 PM | message detail
Speaking of that last number, could be interesting to consider how it would apply to the coming Game Contest. We all know FF7 has never been remade, and now we know that the PSX (which already trailed the N64 by 3% at its peak) has taken a major hit since '05... now only 67.23% of those who visit and vote in polls have ever owned a Playstation.

Good thing the PS2 and PS3 are backwards compatible, eh?
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
therealmnm | Posted 6/8/2007 1:01:48 PM | message detail
But still, the FFVII ownership ratio of those who started off with a PS2 should be obviously lower. Not only is FFVII a PS1 game, but the demo packaged with the PS1 undoubtedly enticed many people to snatch the game up.
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