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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 441

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Karma Hunter | Posted 6/7/2007 1:39:36 PM | message detail

Hmm... you're right, 2k4 = 2k5 Ness as far as the stats go, I thought Ness had been adjusted differently. I'll give Ness the Nintendo boost then as well as far as stats go (though at least we still have CJ to go on... for whatever that's worth, maybe set CJ equal to Vercetti if you're feeling bold?), though I still think Wario has more to gain - and my measuring of him likely underrates; I'm still of the opinion 2k4 Mega Man was stronger than 2k3/2k5.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 1:43:09 PM | message detail

I don't think I'd take a Warioware game against EB -- I'll play it safe on that one, though it's possible. Still though, Wario's no more to his series than Zelda is to hers and just imagine how much weaker Wario's series is. At least Ness was real important to EB.

I had forgotten that SM64DS had come out after we last saw Wario though, and apparently he's a required character. I know Mario and Luigi did well in the following year, and Yoshi was behind SFF in 2k5 while being on the good end of another anomaly in 2k6 so we can't judge him like that (unless you want to use Pac-Man and Laharl, which bring you to about the same number)...hmm, if Wario got a boost like Mario/Luigi did, then that'd be big trouble for Ness.

Then again though, the game wasn't that big here.....
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 6/7/2007 1:45:58 PM | message detail

I wouldn't expect the Wario Ware series to do much. After all, SSB would 70-30 Mario Kart, and I'd expect Mario Kart to do even better than that against Wario Ware.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 6/7/2007 1:51:01 PM | message detail

It's not the strength of that particular series so much as it is continual exposure of a character. WarioWare would be weak as all get-out - if it even did win against EB (which I doubt) it'd be on name alone, but it keeps Wario fresh in people's minds apart from his other appearances in the Marioverse. Ness may have SSB... but for now, tomorrow, and the indefinite future, that's ALL he'll have. The strength of pretty much SSB alone isn't to be underestimated... but I'm sure as hell not going to overestimate it as it pertains to one of its least popular characters.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 2:00:41 PM | message detail

And so did Riku, and Ganon, and Auron, and Samus... oh hey, everyone from Samus' division who came back in 2K6.

Let's see...All of those (except for Samus) had reasons to increase. Riku obviously did, netting nearly 45% on Yoshi after getting 47-48% on Frog the year before. Auron obviously did, too. He doesn't match his performance on Ganon against Crono just because he's underrated in 2005 because Ganon wasn't beating Crono last year. And actually, Ganondorf didn't really look any better last year, now that I think about it.

And I'm with KH. Samus did nothing to me to prove she's stronger than Mario. She barely got 81% on Nidoran F. Mario did that to Joanna Dark. Yeah, Yuna nearly did, too, but I'll still take Joanna Dark over Nidoran F. Mario was already expected to break 70% on Rikku in 2005, and that's with the possibility that she was overrated in 2005! The last three matches aren't really worth commenting on since they were obvious anomalies.

So you want me to believe that Riku jumps up that much from 2K5 to 2K6, and far more than Sora? Sorry, but I don't. Sure he boosted from KH2, but it wasn't that much.

Yoshi's four-pack is overrated! He's not beating Squall, nor is Dante. I thought we were all in agreement with this...

Then again though, the game wasn't that big here.....

2 million isn't that big?

SSBM is the #6/7 game here, the SSB series is the #4 series, and over 85% of the site has (had?) a N64 or Gamecube. Wario isn't going to have such a big exposure advantage against Ness.

Don't bring up the popularity of the game in regards to the popularity of its characters. Just being IN the game is only worth so much. Ask Master Hand or Captain Falcon. People love the game, but I just don't see them being that loyal to characters they know solely from the game.

Wario will probably be a contender against Ness (if not win, if he's any good in the game)

Wario doesn't NEED to be good to beat Ness. This is honestly where I think the biggest flaw in your argument is. You're assuming Ness's goodness in the first game means fans will be more loyal to him and support him over SSB characters who aren't good in the game. This just ain't true. Link is mediocre in both SSB games, for the record.
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therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2007 2:01:39 PM | message detail

SSBM is the #6/7 game here, the SSB series is the #4 series, and over 85% of the site has (had?) a N64 or Gamecube. Wario isn't going to have such a big exposure advantage against Ness.

Strength of the game/series really means very little as far as exposure goes. I don't see how one can argue that Wario doesn't have a huge exposure advantage over Ness. Ness has Earthbound, SSB, and SSBM. That's it. Wario has 2 of his own series as well as being in a ton of Mario games. And then you throw on top of that Wario having the benefit of SSBB... Sure, no individual Wario game is as popular as SSB/SSBM... but then again, we're talking about exposure here.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 2:01:40 PM | message detail

And I've got to ask: WHY in the world are we bringing back the old (and obviously erroneous) characters = games argument? We disproved that in 2004.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 6/7/2007 2:03:38 PM | message detail

Link is actually bottom-of-the-barrel as far as the original SSB goes (yay nonexistent 3rd jump!), and while initially average is starting to poke his head up as one of the better characters in masterful hands in SSBM.

Never stopped everyone and their mother from playing him in tournaments for both games, though...
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therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2007 2:03:41 PM | message detail

Link is mediocre in both SSB games, for the record.

Not Young Link!
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 2:05:02 PM | message detail

That's because Young Link drinks his Lon Lon Milk!
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 2:34:27 PM | message detail

The strength of pretty much SSB alone isn't to be underestimated... but I'm sure as hell not going to overestimate it as it pertains to one of its least popular characters.

If you mean outside of SSB/M, I'd have to give you that...but in SSB/M? Not so.

Don't bring up the popularity of the game in regards to the popularity of its characters. Just being IN the game is only worth so much. Ask Master Hand or Captain Falcon. People love the game, but I just don't see them being that loyal to characters they know solely from the game.

I was just trying to show that people know Ness, and Wario's extra exposure he may have over Ness isn't what it's made out to be. Ness isn't EB -- gamers here have come to know who he is.

This is honestly where I think the biggest flaw in your argument is. You're assuming Ness's goodness in the first game means fans will be more loyal to him and support him over SSB characters who aren't good in the game. This just ain't true. Link is mediocre in both SSB games, for the record.

Being good/popular in the first game and being in both should mean that though. People try to say Mario and Bowser being able to SFF him so badly disproves it, but Mario beat Ness noticably worse than an unadjusted Ness from 2k3 suggests. Mario was in SSB/M (hell, he was in SSBM twice, ha) and average-to-decent compared to Bowser who was just in SSBM and BLEW. Let me also point out again that Luigi beat Kirby worse than Bowser did. Luigi was in SSB/M and infinitely better than Bowser in it. I'd like to also point out that many people don't like to think Zelda > Ganon, but Samus says Zelda takes it clearly (indirectly at least)...what's the reason behind that? Zelda/Sheik is my guess for the most favored SSBM character here, which is alot more than you can say for Ganon (can't say anything about missing SSB since they both missed it)...

...just saying, there's lots of things that shows the support does matter if one's really liked or disliked in the game.

Strength of the game/series really means very little as far as exposure goes. I don't see how one can argue that Wario doesn't have a huge exposure advantage over Ness. Ness has Earthbound, SSB, and SSBM. That's it. Wario has 2 of his own series as well as being in a ton of Mario games. And then you throw on top of that Wario having the benefit of SSBB... Sure, no individual Wario game is as popular as SSB/SSBM... but then again, we're talking about exposure here.

I'm not arguing Wario's less exposed...but on this site, Ness is surprisingly well known and the popularity of those three stats make it true. However, like Wario within the SMB series, that doesn't mean they gotta like Ness...but I think they do more than we like to let on.

Off to rehearsals.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 2:40:04 PM | message detail

...just saying, there's lots of things that shows the support does matter if one's really liked or disliked in the game.

Well, it CAN, but it depends on how you look at it. Mario SFFs Ness more than Bowser because, get this, he's stronger than Bowser! Kirby didn't look as impressive in 2006 as he did in 2005, even before losing to Luigi. I wouldn't really give any sort of credibility to that claim. Samus/Zelda and Samus/Ganondorf doesn't really mean anything to me. By that logic, Ness should've at least avoided SFF better because he's better in SSBM. Samus/Zelda is a matter of overperformance that has nothing to do with SSB.

And for the record, SSB nearly cost Samus that match against Tifa!
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Kaxon | Posted 6/7/2007 3:10:44 PM | message detail

We really need to see Zelda/Ganon in the next character contest, to finally settle that argument.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 4:47:49 PM | message detail

We need this four-pack:

Zelda
Tifa

Bowser
Ganondorf

Last year, it would've been killer for the board. This year...It's probably going to come down to the two LoZ characters.
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Master Moltar | Posted 6/7/2007 4:50:30 PM | message detail

I'd like that, as it's a free trip out for the King of Evil!
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 4:52:48 PM | message detail

Followed by a loss to Squall Leonhart in the Sweet Sixteen, naturally!
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Master Moltar | Posted 6/7/2007 4:55:11 PM | message detail

Only in your dreams, Leon!
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 7:04:49 PM | message detail

Well, it CAN, but it depends on how you look at it. Mario SFFs Ness more than Bowser because, get this, he's stronger than Bowser!

From that angle, doesn't the Cloud/Vyse-to-Tifa/Vyse comparison (and Mario/Zero-to-Luigi/Zero, if you're into that) suggest that Bowser should have made Ness look worse in the stats due to the idea that "why would many people think Mario/Cloud > Ness/Vyse > Bowser/Tifa?"

Kirby didn't look as impressive in 2006 as he did in 2005, even before losing to Luigi. I wouldn't really give any sort of credibility to that claim.

Likewise to your claim -- we never saw PoP before and his value isn't exactly shocking in the grand scheme of things, plus Luigi fell a little shy of expectations against Sonic. I figure Kirby didn't change much/any other than his standing in the final stats...and I'm not saying his strength varied.

Samus/Zelda and Samus/Ganondorf doesn't really mean anything to me. By that logic, Ness should've at least avoided SFF better because he's better in SSBM. Samus/Zelda is a matter of overperformance that has nothing to do with SSB.

Well, "it depends on how you look at it"...against the two most popular Mario characters, especially ones that aren't leeches and have gone toe-to-toe or better with Noble Nine members, how much better can Ness really do?

Despite popular belief, I don't consider SSB/M to be THAT big of a deal-breaker; I realize it doesn't do miracles. I think we all agree that it helps, though most think it's seemingly next to nothing. I think it's a little bit more than that, and it's most apparent in SFF-matches where there's three different fanbases (say...SMB, EB, and SSB) and one of the two characters is obviously more favored in the SSB series than the other (Ness >> Bowser)...so I prefer my angle that SSB kept Bowser from destroying Ness like Mario did in the final stats. If you get somebody around Ness's strength with as little SSB-favoritism as Bowser has (which, given how pathetic Bowser is in SSBM, it'd be hard to find somebody like that who's been in the series so far...Mewtwo, maybe??), Ness can show off what it does a whole lot more...but as is, we've only seen him face Nintendo elites.

And for the record, ZSS nearly cost Samus that match against Tifa!

Fixed!
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therealmnm | Posted 6/7/2007 7:23:38 PM | message detail

I'm sorry, I simply cannot buy Bowser sucking in SSBM as giving Ness an advantage. I can see Ness being good making people like him... but preferring him over Bowser specifically because Bowser sucks? I don't buy that in the least. Bowser's role in SSBM means very little as far as his popularity goes. Nobody expects him to be some god-tier character or anything. It's Bowser. He's big and slow. I don't think anybody really expected much more out of him in the game. It's who he is.

What you're stating just screams coincidence. Oh, Ness happens to be good in SSBM and Bowser isn't, so that must be the reason why Bowser didn't SFF him as much as Mario. It just seems so anecdotal. Similar to ESPN stating some crazy stat like "San Antonio is 5-2 when they score more than 25 points in the fourth quarter in the second game of back-to-backs that occur on a Tuesday".
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 8:06:50 PM | message detail

Was it 35% that preferred the SSB series to the SMB series? Whatever percent it was, considering the history, favoritism, and skill of Ness compared to Bowser...is it crazy to think that 5% of that 35% (that's one out of every seven that already prefer SSB to SMB) care more about how the characters are in the SSB series than the SMB series? If that was the case, one would then think that Ness would get most of that 5%...

...totally over-analyzing it, granted, but it's not hard to believe people may legitimately like Ness more than Bowser because of SSB/M.
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Haste_2 | Posted 6/7/2007 8:11:49 PM | message detail

If you ask me, I think Bowser or Mario would've SFFed Ness just as badly regardless of whether they appeared in SSBM. Unforunately for Ness, Wario wasn't a major character in all the most POPULAR Mario games, so I'm expecting a boost for Wario. I would take Ness over Wario pre-SSBB (right now). Once SSBB gets released, I'd call it a toss-up, but I think Ness would still be indirectly stronger than Wario by a little bit.

For Samus, I would be very surprised to see her boost at all from SSBB. I think she'll drop, if anything, since a lot of people seem to dislike the looks of ZSS, and her ZSS image will become ever-more prevalent once SSBB is released.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 8:16:38 PM | message detail

I'm glad you finally conceded overanalysis.
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Haste_2 | Posted 6/7/2007 8:17:25 PM | message detail

Wario's the greatest character ever, though, so I'd totally back him over Ness... I won't ever pick against Wario in a match where he has a shot to win. =P

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Haste_2 | Posted 6/7/2007 8:21:27 PM | message detail

Hrm... and maybe WarioWare, Wario World, and his role in SM64 DS (among other roles) will have help him some, since his gaming roles seemed to have increased, unlike other Mario characters... Well, consider this: Mario went from 38% to 43% on BL. Just give Wario a proportional boost, plus a little bit, and.. he goes from 19% to 22% on BL. If Shadow '03 was stronger than the estimated '04 x-stat for him, that makes Wario look even better. Add in SSBB, and Wario looks even better.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 8:22:27 PM | message detail

I figure Kirby didn't change much/any other than his standing in the final stats...and I'm not saying his strength varied.

No, you're just saying, in circumstances where the characters were very well-established before Super Smash Brothers was ever released, people take the time to think about whether or not the character was good in the game before making the decision to vote.
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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 8:23:29 PM | message detail

how in the world did we even get talking about this Wario/Ness match anyway?

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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 8:24:23 PM | message detail

Wario was the Guru choice for nomination, I believe, so I just decided to ask what people thought of him, seeing if they'd take him over Ness or Peach.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 8:25:23 PM | message detail

"Hmmm...I like Bowser a lot, and I've never played Earthbound in my life."

*goes to vote for Bowser*

"...Wait a minute, I just remembered that Bowser sucked in SSBM and that Ness guy was pretty good. What was I thinking getting ready to vote for Bowser?"

*changes vote*
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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 8:25:52 PM | message detail

Is that who got chosen for that thing? Yikes.

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transience | Posted 6/7/2007 8:30:12 PM | message detail

hey now, I'd vote Ken over anything because I played as him for years and years in Street Fighter 2. it really isn't all that ridiculous for others to like Ness in the same way.

..that said, it's freaking Ness. he doesn't have that same appeal to people and he's not exactly the coolest dude. he's a little kid with a baseball bat. I see Ness doing good against someone people are fairly apathetic to, but when you put him up against another Nintendo guy he folds. put him up against someone stronger than him that doesn't have a strong fanbase though and he might surprise.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 8:32:19 PM | message detail

I dunno. SSB seems to be a different sort of breed than SFII or MK when it comes to character loyalty. Heck, I've never voted against Ryu in these contests, but I think the fact that SSB characters were in previously established franchises has something to do with that. Very few characters I associate with SSB first, and those that you do associate with it first (Roy, Marth, etc.) are probably the ones that aren't very strong in the first place.
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transience | Posted 6/7/2007 8:33:11 PM | message detail

to a lot of people on this site, SSB is a serious fighting game. you can't discount that. look at Ulti and Peach -- who the hell cares about Peach? Ulti does.
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xyzzy
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 8:34:45 PM | message detail

I never said it wasn't a serious fighting game to people. I just said it wasn't often the first thing people associated with most of the characters in it. I don't imagine that most of the site plays it hardcore though.
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transience | Posted 6/7/2007 8:36:18 PM | message detail

you don't have to play it hardcore to like the character in the same way as you would SF2 or MK. do you think most of the site plays SF2 or MK hardcore? yet, Ryu and Sub-Zero have decent strength.
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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 8:36:27 PM | message detail

It's almost kinda scary...

But I think he's saying that SSB is sorta different in that it's pretty much taking established Nintendo characters and tossing them into a fighting game instead of them just naturally being fighting game characters like Ken or Ryu or whoever. That whole "how good are you in SSB" thing never made a lick of sense to me. It's so entirely irrelevant how good you are to most people out there. Not like Fox is going to come back and start kicking ass because he's top tier or anything.

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transience | Posted 6/7/2007 8:37:54 PM | message detail

yeah, but Ness is not established. not at all. come on, who the hell is Ness?
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 8:38:24 PM | message detail

Well, nobody really pays attention to tiers in SFII or MK for that matter, now that we're talkin' about it. I don't think Ryu was ever top tier except for maybe one game.
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transience | Posted 6/7/2007 8:38:38 PM | message detail

oh, and I don't think "tiers" matter -- rather, character design and how much fun they are to play as matter a hell of a lot more. Ness, at least from my limited experience with SSBM, doesn't really excel in either.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 9:35:26 PM | message detail

If you ask me, I think Bowser or Mario would've SFFed Ness just as badly regardless of whether they appeared in SSBM.

Bowser, probably -- he ought as well step away from Ness in that category. Mario, I'd have to disagree with ya on that.

No, you're just saying, in circumstances where the characters were very well-established before Super Smash Brothers was ever released, people take the time to think about whether or not the character was good in the game before making the decision to vote.

Who said they had to take time to think about it? It's not like it's some kind of analysis they must do for the match -- people know who they do and don't like, and not too often do people come across matches where they'd feel obligated to think on it. People can't grow attached to characters in a new series if they knew them from another series first?

That whole "how good are you in SSB" thing never made a lick of sense to me. It's so entirely irrelevant how good you are to most people out there. Not like Fox is going to come back and start kicking ass because he's top tier or anything.

I'm not debating for Ness on the basis of tier, though it's on his side in SSB. I'm arguing for him on the basis of him being legitimately liked and popular from all that I've seen and heard in SSB as well as his roots with the series. He's not too special in SSBM, but he's still better than quite afew characters in the game and he's unique.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 9:53:26 PM | message detail

People can't grow attached to characters in a new series if they knew them from another series first?

I just don't think it's that likely to enter into the thought process. I can't see people being prevented from voting for Bowser when they normally would just because they like Ness (or Kirby, if you like) in SSB.
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 10:06:25 PM | message detail

Gamers have their priorities in gaming and tastes. The number of people who voted for SSB > SMB may be surprising, but the number of those people who would vote Ness over Bowser or Mario shouldn't be so surprising. He's well-liked and respected in the series, and the idea that people who love SSB/M can't like a lesser-known character from it over a more well-known character that sucks out loud like Bowser is silly to me.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 10:11:14 PM | message detail

but the number of those people who would vote Ness over Bowser or Mario shouldn't be so surprising.

I never said Ness only getting 20-25% on them was surprising. Heck, there were people who thought Ness could beat Bowser in 2003.

And again, how many people really pay attention to tiers? Most people don't play competitively. Chances are you play with characters you like to begin with, though you probably experiment all around. I just don't see people changing their minds and choosing Ness just because Bowser sucks in SSBM.
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JaKyL25 | Posted 6/7/2007 10:12:36 PM | message detail

Just noticed this board again and I thought I'd weigh in with my clout as Reigning Champion.

Bowser > Wario > Ness
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transience | Posted 6/7/2007 10:13:16 PM | message detail

let me put it in numbers, so it's easier for you to understand..

SSB got 35% on SMB;
Ness got 25% on Bowser.

it clearly isn't helping him much !!
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Gaddswell | Posted 6/7/2007 10:14:20 PM | message detail

Well... I'd vote Ness over Bowser and Mario. >_<
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HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 10:39:38 PM | message detail

I'M. NOT. DEBATING. BASED. ON. TIERS. STOP. All I've said is that it's on his side for the original, but he's legitimately liked within the fanbase. THAT is what I'm saying. I never even heard of Ness or EB before SSB nor did my friends, but that didn't stop us from having Ness-wars once we got a hold of him and I've heard many similar stories.

As for the 35%/25% bit, I was waiting on that, ha, but people do legitimately like Bowser too. It's just within the Mario games. For SSB fans that don't care so much for Mario games, Ness is going to dominate those votes. For SSB fans that like SMB alot but don't care so much about Bowser, Ness is going to take many of those as well. That doesn't embody the entire 35% obviously, but think just how popular SMB and Bowser are. Doesn't it strike you odd that 25% of that 35% still voted for Ness?

Then, if you want to compare Ness's ~17% against Mario, just take away percentage based on Mario's normal strength and how many people think Mario > Ness > Bowser in SSBM (and I'd say most consider Mario the face of SSB/M...hell, I bet a decent number consider SSB/M part of the SMB universe). That shows Ness still retaining nearly half of that 35%...sounds rather good to me given the odds.

If you want to factor in EB, go ahead, but we've all agreed it's not doing a whole lot for Ness outside of keeping some core fans (who, according to Leonhart's theory, would already be using him in SSB/M).
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transience | Posted 6/7/2007 10:42:46 PM | message detail

I dunno, I think of SSBM as a different game with Nintendo characters thrown in. it's not a Mario game anymore than it is a Zelda game or a.. whatever game.

also, be careful how closely you analyze Ness's low numbers. nobody is going to get 100%. I'd bet Jay Solano could get at least 7% on Mario. no joke. Ness getting 17% is not exactly an achievement.
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ZFS | Posted 6/7/2007 10:44:09 PM | message detail

HaRRicH | Posted 6/7/2007 10:44:18 PM | message detail

Oh, and that bit assumes every SSB-fan who isn't so big on SMB/Bowser likes Ness moreso...which isn't always the case. It's definitely in Ness's favor though.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 6/7/2007 10:45:44 PM | message detail

You know, it's entirely possible that Bowser does better now that he did in 2003, or Mario would've done worse in 2003 than he did in 2005. Both of them are stronger now (so is Ness, but I doubt he's boosted quite as much as they did), so this entire argument could be moot.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier

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