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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 440

THEJackSparrow | Posted 5/25/2007 8:47:45 AM | message detail
And it's amazing how much better Sonic does in a multi-way poll than his games do. I couldn't see ANY of his games winning a poll like this unless it was an all-Sega poll.
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Davy Jones: "...A lost bird that never learned to fly."
Jack Sparrow: "To my great regret, but...Never too late to learn."
transience | Posted 5/25/2007 8:47:48 AM | message detail
go go Mega Mana
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 5/25/2007 8:48:55 AM | message detail
Leon, I think you're reading into this a bit much. the reason Sonic's doing so well here is because of his relationship to Mario. take that away and Cloud is definitely winning this poll, though I think Sonic would still take second.
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xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 5/25/2007 8:50:45 AM | message detail
Ehh, I don't know if the possibility of Mario vs. Sonic is the main reason he's winning here, but I'd imagine that plays a part in it, along with the fact that he's already been heavily rumored as is.
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Davy Jones: "...A lost bird that never learned to fly."
Jack Sparrow: "To my great regret, but...Never too late to learn."
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/25/2007 8:52:01 AM | message detail
Yeah, I think Sonic is doing so well in large part because of what the game is and the nature of the hype. There's even a separate section in Brawl's Wikipedia article about him, containing pretty much nothing but rumors, which really gives one an indication of how widespread Sonic hype is.
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This was Ed Bellis.
Rufus Shinra 18 took a shotgun to my bracket. Congrats, Guru champ!
transience | Posted 5/25/2007 8:53:15 AM | message detail
yeah. either way, this is not your typical 'battle royale'. you can't look at this and say he'd pull a Snake in a BR setting.
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xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 5/25/2007 8:54:17 AM | message detail
Oh, I'm not saying that at all. If it were straight up Battle Royale, Cloud would be winning.
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Davy Jones: "...A lost bird that never learned to fly."
Jack Sparrow: "To my great regret, but...Never too late to learn."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/25/2007 12:07:02 PM | message detail
Sonic is winning because EGM pulled the best April Fool's joke of all time back in 2002. Sonic has been the single most wanted character in Smash 3 ever since.

~*ST*~
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2/4/2007 - SUPER BOWL CHAMPION COLTS!!
Now Playing: Final Fantasy, Final Fantasy 3, Guitar Hero 2
ZFS | Posted 5/25/2007 1:47:50 PM | message detail
oh man cloud is going to pull off an epic comeback to win aww yeah

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Let's mosey.
Haste_2 | Posted 5/25/2007 4:34:34 PM | message detail
A real Battle Royale would go much differently, for various obvious reasons.

Also, I never paid attention to vote totals of recent polls... most of the polls as of late have had 90,000+ votes, while today should break 100,000. I can't wait to see how high they go once we get the next actual contest started.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Haste_2 | Posted 5/25/2007 4:44:27 PM | message detail
My mistake. The vote totals on typical polls aren't really higher than last year.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
ZFS | Posted 5/25/2007 5:45:25 PM | message detail
Cloud Strife 22.82% 21531
Sonic the Hedgehog 22.99% 2169


Only a matter of time !!

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Let's mosey.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 5/25/2007 5:48:17 PM | message detail
Ha! It'll turn out just like the Battle Royale with Snake and Sephiroth, with Sonic getting a questionable final update to win!
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Davy Jones: "...A lost bird that never learned to fly."
Jack Sparrow: "To my great regret, but...Never too late to learn."
trannyscience | Posted 5/25/2007 5:49:06 PM | message detail
I was looking at it earlier and thinking of Snake/Sephiroth as well.
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xyzzy
DO YOU WANNA MUSIC DURING THE GAME? [Y/N]
ZFS | Posted 5/25/2007 6:57:35 PM | message detail
Cloud Strife 22.92% 22605
Sonic the Hedgehog 22.91% 22604


SquareFAQs lives!

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Let's mosey.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 5/25/2007 7:01:30 PM | message detail
Sonic's back in the lead!
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Davy Jones: "...A lost bird that never learned to fly."
Jack Sparrow: "To my great regret, but...Never too late to learn."
ZFS | Posted 5/25/2007 7:02:10 PM | message detail
Cheaters. That's what this is!

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Let's mosey.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 5/25/2007 7:18:25 PM | message detail
This...is for 2003!
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Davy Jones: "...A lost bird that never learned to fly."
Jack Sparrow: "To my great regret, but...Never too late to learn."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/25/2007 8:36:58 PM | message detail
Cloud came back? o_O

~*ST*~
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2/4/2007 - SUPER BOWL CHAMPION COLTS!!
Now Playing: Final Fantasy, Final Fantasy 3, Guitar Hero 2
HaRRicH | Posted 5/25/2007 11:35:55 PM | message detail
All too sadly, yes. Sonic should have beat him, and Mega Man should have led over Cloud at least for one update.


Stupid SquareFAQs.
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This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it......
HaRRicH
transience | Posted 5/25/2007 11:39:55 PM | message detail
awwww yeah
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xyzzy
swirIdude | Posted 5/25/2007 11:45:26 PM | message detail
awwww no stupid alt accounts why didnt cjay check for vote stuffing
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ENTER THE KAIBA CAVE!
Dude, the Romans didn't slap two pieces of stone together, minus adhesive, and call it a day. ~WVI
transience | Posted 5/25/2007 11:48:25 PM | message detail
heh, if he did, Cloud would have won by even more.

we'd also have the most hilarious controversy ever.
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xyzzy
swirIdude | Posted 5/25/2007 11:51:29 PM | message detail
If that happened, CJay would just declare Knuckles the winner in response to Knux not being in last year's contest and getting a chance to extend his perfect Round 1 record.
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ENTER THE KAIBA CAVE!
Dude, the Romans didn't slap two pieces of stone together, minus adhesive, and call it a day. ~WVI
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/26/2007 12:26:23 AM | message detail
If this poll would have gone exactly as last Summer's performances determined, ie a favorites poll that somehow avoided SFF and went by the x-stats values proportionally, here's how it would have turned out:

Cloud: 18.25%
Sonic: 13.61%
Mega Man: 13.51%
Crono: 13.41%
Dante: 12.81%
Sub-Zero: 9.85%
Master C: 9.66%
Ryu H: 8.92%

So, here is how far away from expectations each character performed.

Cloud: +4.73%
That afternoon vote saved Cloud from what would have been a truly pathetic showing for the site's #2 character. Yeah yeah, he's a longer shot/not as good a fit as Sonic and Mega Man, but come on now... do you honestly see Nintendo fans jumping ship on Link/Zelda in any kind of poll, regardless of content? I stand by my claim that Cloud comes dang close to 50% in this poll if you ran it 3 years ago.

Sonic: +9.27%
Fantastic! Results like this validate those Japanese results, where Sonic was the #1 request. Too bad this great showing for the Blue Blur had to be tainted somewhat by Cloud's late comeback.

Mega Man: +4.66%
Very impressive. Doesn't have as good a chance as Sonic, but he'd be a great fit in that roster, as these results point to.

Crono: -2.50%
A somewhat decent showing, but once again, OUCH at that Day Vote collapse. Things certainly have changed in the last three years... I have a tough time imagining Crono winning even a half dozen Day Vote updates against Mario in 2007, let alone the vast majority he stole in '04. This result also helps confirm that, had he made the Battle Royale as originally expected, it would have gotten ugly once that FF7 Day Vote kicked in.

Dante: -5.30%
Big drop, but I guess it's not all the bad considering he had no reason to be there in the first place.

Master C: -0.34%
Y halo thar Xbox vote! It's just like we've confirmed a million times... there isn't a huge number of Xbox/Halo fans, but there's a decent amount, and they're possibly the most dedicated group (of reasonable size) on the site. They'll support Halo/MC enough to get them great seeds, or to perform decently even with a number of much better options present.

Ryu H: -5.16%
You'd think he'd be pretty well forgotten as an NES character, so this fall is actually not all that bad considering how much Xbox vote MC must have stolen from him.

Sub-Zero: -5.37%
Ouch, that's a heck of a stumble... you'd think someone who's already a fighting game character could have held on a little bit better. I bet Ryu would have done much better in this position... shame he was left out.

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/26/2007 10:43:39 AM | message detail
Whoops, that statistical overload killed the topic! Sorry about that... feel free to continue with the Battletoads yaoi discussion.

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
transience | Posted 5/26/2007 10:47:01 AM | message detail
Rash x Pimple > Zitz x Pimple

what
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 5/26/2007 11:36:32 AM | message detail
Cloud: +4.73%
That afternoon vote saved Cloud from what would have been a truly pathetic showing for the site's #2 character. Yeah yeah, he's a longer shot/not as good a fit as Sonic and Mega Man, but come on now... do you honestly see Nintendo fans jumping ship on Link/Zelda in any kind of poll, regardless of content? I stand by my claim that Cloud comes dang close to 50% in this poll if you ran it 3 years ago.



Eh, if you're trying to say that times have changed since 2003ish, there's not much need. We know FFVII isn't as dominant as it was before with this site currently worshipping Nintendo. I mean, yeah, he probably would dominate the poll back then, but the voters were a bit different then. At the end of the day, it's still just a silly SSBB poll with zero relevance to a contest; it's not like Cloud is anything less than the second strongest character on the site in a contest.


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Called "Godslayer" by some, feared by most.
Kaxon | Posted 5/26/2007 12:06:41 PM | message detail
Yeah, even in 2003 there's no way Cloud comes close to 50% in that poll. Even Link at his strongest couldn't break 30% in a six way poll, and this was an eight way poll.
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....TCELES B HSUP
THEJackSparrow | Posted 5/26/2007 2:21:38 PM | message detail
I was bored and got to thinking...There are only three non-Noble Niners who have made three consecutive Sweet Sixteen appearances: Squall (2003-2005), Yoshi (2004-2006), and Sora (2004-2006). I figured the list would be bigger, but it's not. Of course, Yoshi and Sora will have good chances to extend that streak this year if we keep dwindling down the field. Mind you, Bowser is the only other non-Noble Niner to have three Sweet Sixteen appearances at all, much less consecutively. He is also the only non-Noble Niner to advance past the Sweet Sixteen more than once, although both of those factoids include the Villains Contest, in which it would've been virtually impossible for Bowser not to get to at least the Final Four.

By the way, Tifa will have the opportunity to join the three straight Sweet Sixteens group this year.
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Davy Jones: "...A lost bird that never learned to fly."
Jack Sparrow: "To my great regret, but...Never too late to learn."
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/26/2007 4:00:05 PM | message detail
That was a 6 way poll between Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Snake, and Samus! Link would have done a heck of a lot better than 30% had the Battle Royale been made up of these (relative) chumps. He'd have eaten MM and Sonic alive, MC has a dedicated fanbase but couldn't have held up nearly so well as Snake did, whichever of Ryu/Subby/Dante wouldn't scare him much, and Crono would have been the only real problem.

Okay, so 50% is overstating it, but I have no trouble seeing him a bit over 40% on that six pack.

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
THEJackSparrow | Posted 5/26/2007 4:03:39 PM | message detail
Over 40%?! Ehh, I don't quite think he could get THAT high. That's nuts.
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Davy Jones: "...A lost bird that never learned to fly."
Jack Sparrow: "To my great regret, but...Never too late to learn."
transience | Posted 5/26/2007 8:45:37 PM | message detail
I still say that a battle royale-type thing and this poll are totally different. this wasn't asking who your favourite was, it was asking who you wanted to see in Smash. totally different question.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 5/26/2007 8:53:05 PM | message detail
By the way, Tifa will have the opportunity to join the three straight Sweet Sixteens group this year.

aww yeah bite on that vincent


Yeah, even in 2003 there's no way Cloud comes close to 50% in that poll. Even Link at his strongest couldn't break 30% in a six way poll, and this was an eight way poll.

Keep in mind that Link jumped 7.5% from his original 27.41% once Samus was eliminated (she had 7.74%) and jumped another 7.77% when Mario was eliminated (he had 11.18%). Also, that next round was where Sephiroth was eliminated...so I think we should look at it from the three-way instead. Let's judge it like this: Link managed 44.65% in a three-way poll against Cloud and Solid Snake...

...on top of the obvious fact that Link > Cloud here BEFORE LoZ:TP, Crono is no Cloud or Sephiroth and Sonic is no Solid Snake. We know that Link could have wrecked Mega Man with SFF. MC's gonna be MC with or without Link, more or less, but maybe Link's extra strength could take him down a notch..I just wouldn't bet much on it. If you want to try to push for PS2-SFF with Cloud/Dante, I'd be willing to concede a tiny bit...and Link simply would have beaten Sub-Zero and Hayabusa worse...

...the main differences I would have seen if Link hypothetically replaced Cloud would be Crono doing noticably better, Mega Man noticably worse (probably reversing Mega > Crono from yesterday), Sonic being a more distant Sonic, and the rest (barring MC and Dante) getting crushed moreso. I couldn't see Link get 40% just because of how low Cloud got yesterday (22.98%)...but then again, he got 23.7% when he was against Link, Solid, and Sephiroth while Link got 42.68%. Sephiroth and Mega Man be damned, we've seen it happen before...


...but you know what I really love about this? All that was hypothetically speaking and assuming that poll could be used in a true BR-situation. If Link really had been in that poll, I doubt he would have even won since he had been loooong announced, was RE-announced the day before the poll, and was in SSB/M already -- his ass would have been lucky to beat Mega Man for most anticipated.






I'm now officially sick of the SSBB-poll.
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This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it......
HaRRicH
THEJackSparrow | Posted 5/26/2007 8:59:22 PM | message detail
Yeah, it would've been awesome to see what Link would've actually done had CJayC stuck him in that poll.
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Davy Jones: "...A lost bird that never learned to fly."
Jack Sparrow: "To my great regret, but...Never too late to learn."
Yesmar | Posted 5/27/2007 8:44:15 AM | message detail
Mind you, Bowser is the only other non-Noble Niner to have three Sweet Sixteen appearances at all, much less consecutively.

Aeris has had three appearances as well, albeit one in a weakened half.
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Rufus Shinra 18 totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
Better late than never.
consolefreak | Posted 5/27/2007 9:11:00 AM | message detail
I was bored and got to thinking...There are only three non-Noble Niners who have made three consecutive Sweet Sixteen appearances: Squall (2003-2005), Yoshi (2004-2006), and Sora (2004-2006). I figured the list would be bigger, but it's not. Of course, Yoshi and Sora will have good chances to extend that streak this year if we keep dwindling down the field. Mind you, Bowser is the only other non-Noble Niner to have three Sweet Sixteen appearances at all, much less consecutively. He is also the only non-Noble Niner to advance past the Sweet Sixteen more than once, although both of those factoids include the Villains Contest, in which it would've been virtually impossible for Bowser not to get to at least the Final Four.

By the way, Tifa will have the opportunity to join the three straight Sweet Sixteens group this year.


Good stuff.
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The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name. - Stronghold Architect, journal (MTG)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 5/27/2007 1:54:48 PM | message detail
Whoops, forgot about Aeris. Her appearance last year was so darn forgettable.
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Davy Jones: "...A lost bird that never learned to fly."
Jack Sparrow: "To my great regret, but...Never too late to learn."
Yesmar | Posted 5/27/2007 4:05:51 PM | message detail
Has anybody done any sort of Nomination Rally for snubbed games like we do with characters?

I was thinking about starting one and I just had a couple of questions.

I was planning on doing two brackets, like in the character one. One bracket of 64 for games released prior to the first Games Contest, and one of 32 for games released afterwards.

The main question I had was: does anybody think it would be a good move to exclude Halo 2, San Andreas, Resident Evil 4 and Twilight Princess (and maybe some others) from the second bracket since they are virtual locks anyway?

Does anyone else think this is a good concept, and do you think people (and yourselves) would be willing to do this, even though they already have characters that they are prepared to nominate?
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Rufus Shinra 18 totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
Better late than never.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 5/27/2007 9:24:53 PM | message detail
It'd be fine if we were guaranteed a Games Contest.
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Davy Jones: "...A lost bird that never learned to fly."
Jack Sparrow: "To my great regret, but...Never too late to learn."
transience | Posted 5/27/2007 9:40:34 PM | message detail
no reason to rally for games. hell, bring back all the notable games from 2004, remove the generations and add the big new titles and we'd be fine. I'm sure we'd have a ton of rallies anyway, but I'd probably nominate stuff to make sure it gets in. there are literally tons of games that are worthy and we are definitely not hurting for new blood there.
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xyzzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/27/2007 10:08:31 PM | message detail
We need another games contest SO BAD. I'd be all for ditching characters for a few years in favor of games alone being in the summer contests, with the usual gimmick for the spring.

~*ST*~
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2/4/2007 - SUPER BOWL CHAMPION COLTS!!
Now Playing: Final Fantasy, Final Fantasy 3, Guitar Hero 2
PortugalTheMann | Posted 5/28/2007 9:08:21 AM | message detail
As much as I like characters... and know nothing about Games (I came to the board about halfway through it, and really didn't pay attention), we really do need a games contest desperately, and it would be a whole hell of a lot easier to keep it unpredictable from year to year. 2004 is old enough that it really wouldn't hold that much weight today, plus the whole division thing, and plenty of something fishy factor all across the entire contest, and it would be damn near like having a brand new contest. Not to mention it wouldn't get as old as a character contest, as fresh blood would be about 100 times easier to bring in every year, and with some decent strength no less.


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Explicit Content.
V-Tokens: 847
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 5/28/2007 9:10:06 AM | message detail
We should totally start a Games Contest petition >_>
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Official Greatest GSB User Mike Awesome Tourney Winner
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 5/28/2007 9:16:16 AM | message detail
A game contest would really suck after 2 rounds. Only Fodder VS Fodder would be interesting to predict, and we would see more horrible fanboyism like the day that Super mario RPG won over the most important game during the 16bit era. And what if CjayC allowed more than one game in a series on the same console. Would anyone here pick Super Mario Bros (The most important game of all time) over Final Fantasy 8?

Nah I would rather have a new character contest, with Magus, Kefka and Knuckles back.
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My Emperor, I failed you!!!
transience | Posted 5/28/2007 9:18:47 AM | message detail
game contest, suck after 2 rounds? no way.
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xyzzy
PortugalTheMann | Posted 5/28/2007 9:19:27 AM | message detail
That is the worst argument I have ever heard.

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Explicit Content.
V-Tokens: 847
THEJackSparrow | Posted 5/28/2007 9:19:42 AM | message detail
Good matches after the second round of the Games Contest:

LttP/FFVI
CT/LttP
StarCraft/Wind Waker
SSBM/FFX
SSBM/StarCraft

That's about 1/3 of the matches, heh.
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Davy Jones: "...A lost bird that never learned to fly."
Jack Sparrow: "To my great regret, but...Never too late to learn."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 5/28/2007 9:25:03 AM | message detail
And that was with crappy era limits/divisions imposed.

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Explicit Content.
V-Tokens: 847
transience | Posted 5/28/2007 9:35:24 AM | message detail
if anything, rounds 3-4 were the best part of the game contest.
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xyzzy