GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 439
| Haste_2 | Posted 4/30/2007 6:39:40 AM | message detail |
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About Terra. After thinking about it, I'm starting to think she really has a chance against Dante. Hear me out. Look at the difference between FF heroes and non-Sephiroth villains. Look at the strengths of Squall, Vivi, Tidus, and Auron. Now look at the strengths of Kefka, Who Cares, and Not Robotnik. There's a big difference. What evidence do we have that FF3/6j heroes aren't just as strong as the other heroes? Lack of contest appearances? That didn't stop Aeris or Vivi from doing well. FF3/6j is the second-most popular FF on this site. It would not be farfetched to assume that Terra is capable of a top twenty finish. We're just not sure what exactly her ceiling is. Her floor is somewhere above Kefka, guaranteed. And now for my next question. Is Vincent capable of beating Terra? This guy was unrequired. He was a hidden character who was easy to miss if you didn't look out for him (I missed him my first playthrough), and I highly doubt that he's as strong as Aeris or Tifa. It's hilarious how wrong some people have been. I won't bother saying who it was. And, the very next post: Terra is probably the biggest wild card of the contest, along with Vincent. For Terra's floor, I'd say 22%, which is just above Donkey Kong's 2K4 value. As fo her ceiling, I'd say 27%, which puts her a hair above Sora. If she falls right between those values, that's 24.5%, enough to beat Tommy Vercetti. I would personally put her at around 25.25%, which is just shy of what she would need to beat Dante. This match just got more interesting. As for Vincent, I would put his floor at 25%, right above Shadow and Knuckles. As for his ceiling, I'll be generous and give him 32%, between Ganondorf and Zero. The same thing, heh. From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/1/2005 1:42:51 PM | Message Detail Prediction: 2k6 summer contest will be the contest of comebacks. There will be as many, or more, characters from 2k2-2k4 that missed out on 2k5 as there are new characters. The braket will hold less excitement when looking at it but due to the fact that a lot of the characters were benched we wont be able to gauge them as well as we'd like and the contest will be harder than the doomsayers have been (doom)saying lately. 2k6 will still be a decnet contest. How many comebacks were there in this past contest? Kairi/Claire, MC/Sub-Zero, Peach/Jill, Yoshi/Dante, Samus/Tifa, and Sonic/Crono. It's a decent prediction. Saying there are more '02 to '04 characters nails it fairly well, too... Claire, Aeris, Lara, and Kasumi did come back. It did hold very little excitement at first glance, but it indeed turned out to be much more exciting than expected. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| therealmnm | Posted 4/30/2007 6:45:17 AM | message detail |
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Oh gawd, the hero and optional character babble returns! --- Currently playing: God of War 2, Fable, Ultimate Spiderman, FFVI Advance |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/30/2007 8:26:13 AM | message detail |
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Ooh, ooh, I know who did the first post without question! Ha, and I think I was the second post...kinda hoping I'm wrong though. --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 4/30/2007 10:02:28 AM | message detail |
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I have a good idea of who the first post was because of the use of Who
Cares and Not Robotnik, which very few people used last year. I kinda
guessed the second was HaRRicH. Maybe not though. --- "I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/30/2007 10:18:45 AM | message detail |
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It wasn't just very few -- I thought he was the only one who ever did...which was kinda funny to me, but hey. --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| Haste_2 | Posted 4/30/2007 10:19:14 AM | message detail |
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You didn't write that second message. Looking at that one again, the
part for Vincent's expectations wasn't really all that bad, since it
was using Link '04 as the base. I did a bunch of tests, and Ganondorf is worth about 51.5% on Zelda. In '06, as well as '05. Of course, the '06 test is rather silly, but it's intriguing, and it matched with the '05 stuff that had a good amount of data. Also, some more testing... if Auron and Yuna grew roughly proportionally (seems likely), do you think Rikku did, as well? But, if that's the case, Rikku '05 gets 27.5% on the Samus of '06! That, in turn, would only make sense if you assume the over-rated Bowser of '05 beating Ryu in a legit match... maybe Ryu really was just horribly weak that year? --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 4/30/2007 10:25:50 AM | message detail |
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Ryu still only gets 55.92% on Rikku based on the 2006 stats, so I don't
really know what to think. The idea of Rikku getting around 44% on
Bowser seems weird to me. --- "I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/30/2007 10:50:42 AM | message detail |
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Who Cares and Not Robotnik? Is that slow? --- Explicit Content. V-Tokens: 847 |
| therealmnm | Posted 4/30/2007 10:53:50 AM | message detail |
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Uh, Lucid was the one that coined Who Cares and Not Robotnik. But he's
not the only one that used it. RPGuy was the front runner of the Terra
Hero/Villain argument. I'm fairly certain that first post is his. --- Currently playing: God of War 2, Fable, Ultimate Spiderman, FFVI Advance |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/30/2007 10:58:21 AM | message detail |
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Yeah... I have absolutely no memory for those sorts of things, I was just trying to think of someone of cynical nature. --- Explicit Content. V-Tokens: 847 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 4/30/2007 10:59:50 AM | message detail |
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I thought I remembered Lucid being a big debater for Terra as well
though...but you may be onto something, since I think he was also big
on supporting Vincent. I dunno, it's been awhile, ha. --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/30/2007 11:00:42 AM | message detail |
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Yeah... I was thinking HM originally just from the lame names, but he was too big off a Vincent supporter. --- Explicit Content. V-Tokens: 847 |
| Haste_2 | Posted 4/30/2007 6:51:19 PM | message detail |
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That would mean Bowser gets about 59% on Rikku, as Rikku '06 is about
equal to Ryu '05 with that theory I mentioned (though raw x-stats will
predict differently, of course). But, it's just messing around. '05
doesn't really matter, since we know about how strong Rikku is now. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 4/30/2007 6:54:05 PM | message detail |
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RPGuy was the front runner of the Terra Hero/Villain argument. I'm fairly certain that first post is his. I was indeed at the forefront of that misguided cause, but that post isn't mine. "FF3/6j" kinda gives it away. --- Mustache...and green... |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/30/2007 9:32:33 PM | message detail |
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That was Lucid. I'd make fun of him for it, but we've all been horribly wrong about stuff before. It happens. ~*ST*~ --- 2/4/2007 - SUPER BOWL CHAMPION COLTS!! Now Playing: Final Fantasy, Final Fantasy 3, Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance |
| Haste_2 | Posted 5/1/2007 1:02:20 AM | message detail |
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*mocks everyone in the stats topics* HA! --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 5/1/2007 6:12:36 AM | message detail |
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You can't mock me, I'm always right. --- Explicit Content. V-Tokens: 847 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/1/2007 9:40:07 PM | message detail |
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*mocks EC* --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 5/2/2007 3:30:17 AM | message detail |
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*Throws pokeball at HaRRicH* --- Smurf - The cream of Vlado fanboyism. |
| Aeon Azuran | Posted 5/2/2007 3:34:34 AM | message detail |
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| PortugalTheMann | Posted 5/2/2007 5:52:16 AM | message detail |
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Mocking is ineffective! --- Explicit Content. V-Tokens: 847 |
| Haste_2 | Posted 5/2/2007 8:27:23 AM | message detail |
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You know what would be interesting? If, in character contests, there was a "both" option and a "neither" option. Just think... Pikachu - 20% PaRappa - 10% Both - 5% Neither - 65% Cloud - 20% Link - 25% Both - 54% Neither - 1% --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/2/2007 9:02:40 AM | message detail |
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Vyse/Laharl and Ada/Jade could have been REALLY weird like that..... --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| Haste_2 | Posted 5/2/2007 9:04:36 AM | message detail |
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Or Wesker/Luca, or... *shudder* Mr. Driller/Serious Sam. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/2/2007 10:29:21 AM | message detail |
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I now want to see Mr. Driller/Serious Sam done in that format. I also want to see some of our most notable SFF matches done like that too: Link/Ganon and Mario/Samus come to mind. How about just matches with anomalies? I'd like to see a Mario/Shadow or Solid/Sora rematch like that... ...or hey, how about some of our epic matches? MC/Frog, Mario/Crono, DK/DH...what have you. --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 5/2/2007 1:17:45 PM | message detail |
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And they suddenly become unepic. --- "I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/2/2007 2:21:46 PM | message detail |
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I came across something interesting to me... http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2244 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2245 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1485 Top 100 List: Pokemon R/B/Y's #28, Fire Emblem's #54, and Pokemon G/S/C's #59 ...I'm not arguing they're equals or too close to each other; I wanna show that it looks like FE is stronger here than we probably realized. If Pokemon/FE was a 60/40 match, that would put Pokemon between Street Fighter and Kingdom Hearts (just under SF, 22.83%) while Metroid would be between Mega Man and Resident Evil (closer to RE at 24.06%). So...how do people feel about a Pokemon/SF match or a Metroid/RE match? --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 5/3/2007 9:33:19 AM | message detail |
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I have no problem taking SF over Pokemon. I think Elder Scrolls could take Star Ocean. --- "I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2007 11:44:10 AM | message detail |
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I can agree with that, yet it's so weird to me that RE would beat
Metroid unless SF/Pokemon were neck-and-neck...plus, the harder SF
beats Pokemon, the closer Pokemon gets to Fire Emblem. I'm okay seeing
them be a bit closer than 60/40...but I wouldn't buy 55/45, either. If
Pokemon/FE was 55/45, that would place Pokemon between Mario Kart and
Halo (20.29%, closer to Mario Kart) and place Metroid between the
closely-bound Castlevania and Kingdom Hearts (21.38%, just barely above
CV). So then...Pokemon/Halo? Metroid/KH? Do people think FE and Pokemon could be that close? If so, we need to get Marth in a contest nearly as bad as we need to get Mewtwo. --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2007 11:50:38 AM | message detail |
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Oh, and it would also mean Metal Gear could 60-40 Metroid. Not
impossible I suppose, but I'd have to see it to believe it...probably
twice in order for it to sink in. --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 5/3/2007 1:17:34 PM | message detail |
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Eh, I just don't think the stats work well for the Series Contest.
There are just way too many outside factors involved, and the overlap
is far greater than in anything else we've seen here. --- "I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 5/3/2007 1:26:08 PM | message detail |
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And Metal Gear 60/40ing Metroid, if the stats held up, wouldn't
surprise me. I think KH could take Pokemon and give Metroid a fight.
The best KH had to give in the Games Contest matched the best Metroid
had. --- "I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2007 3:22:47 PM | message detail |
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Through Starcraft, yes. Take that comparison as you will though -- we
know there was minimal rallying for Starcraft against KH, whereas the
rest of its matches..... I can agree with the level of overlap and all, but at the same time I don't feel like we can avoid the idea here that FE and Pokemon are pretty close to each other if KH can beat Pokemon and hang tough with Metroid (perhaps even win?). Given that (assuming it's true), it seems like Pokemon and FE are pretty tightly knit together: both are types of Nintendo RPGs that were mostly popular on handhelds though they have some smaller success on consoles and have at least two characters in the SSB/M series...and their series are worth 18%-21% on LoZ. Marth is much more liked in SSBM than Mewtwo is, though Mewtwo is more liked in Pokemon than Marth is in FE... ...Mewtwo would beat Marth, but Marth will deserve a shot in a contest sometime if Mewtwo does well this year. Still though, FE/Pokemon doesn't feel like it should be too close at all indirectly (I'm trusting Pokemon would SFF Fire Emblem head-to-head). Just bothers me..... --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 5/3/2007 3:32:49 PM | message detail |
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Prince Marth has the disadvantage of not being in a domestically
released Fire Emblem *and* sucking in both FE games he was in. Even
among the people that have played Dragon of Darkness and the Sword of
Light or Mystery of the Emblem, he doesn't get a whole lot of respect.
Since almost all his strength would come from Melee, I don't think he's
a particularly good representative of the Fire Emblem series. I know that's a minor point, but I thought I'd bring it up anyway. --- Mustache...and green... |
| trannyscience | Posted 5/3/2007 3:37:07 PM | message detail |
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I'd probably take Pokemon over SF, for no reason whatsoever. I'd also take Metroid over RE. --- i do not violation any rules "I hate you for introducing "Man Festival" to my vocabulary." - Heroic Mario |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2007 3:37:12 PM | message detail |
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Would Roy be better? I would think that FE's best representative as far as strength goes would have to be one of those two..... --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| trannyscience | Posted 5/3/2007 3:37:24 PM | message detail |
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but those contests will never happen again, so eh. --- i do not violation any rules "I hate you for introducing "Man Festival" to my vocabulary." - Heroic Mario |
| plasmabeam | Posted 5/3/2007 3:43:21 PM | message detail |
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I can't see Metal Gear going 60-40 on Metroid. Let's not forget that Fire Emblem
got nearly 35% on Metal Gear. Metroid is nowhere near the popularity of
Zelda, Mario, and Smash, but saying that it would only do 5% better
than Fire Emblem just seems wrong. --- ~Jacksonville Jaguars~ |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2007 3:47:55 PM | message detail |
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True, I doubt we see another Series Contest for a loooooooong time, but
it's still the concept of the strength of a series that I worry about. I used to wanna take Pokemon > SF, but I don't think I could do that now...yet I almost want to take Metroid > RE without regret. Then again though, I think Pokemon benefited a bit for having a strong fanbase face off against another Nintendo series not known for having a stable fanbase...not that Metroid can't SFF -- they've faced tough opponents in SFF-matches...but given its assumed strength in Samus/its games/series while believing it's one of Nintendo's most cliche-series, I could see how Pokemon could have done a bit better than expected... ...which would only put it closer to Fire Emblem. Gah. Does anybody think it's reasonable that Fire Emblem and Pokemon could be closer than, say...57.5-42.5? --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 5/3/2007 3:48:39 PM | message detail |
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Roy hasn't been in an American Fire Emblem game either, but at least Sealed Sword has a complete fan translation. Marth would undoubtedly be the strongest Fire Emblem character, but for the "wrong" reasons, as it were. You were comparing Mewtwo as the strongest representative of Pokemon to Marth as the strongest representative of Fire Emblem, which is a little disingenuous since Marth (almost certainly) draws very little strength from FE. I'd wager the strongest "pure" FE character would be Ike once Goddess of the Dawn comes out over here, but right now it's probably a toss up between Ike, Hector, and Lyn. And maybe Ike will get into Brawl and we'll have the best of both worlds. --- Mustache...and green... |
| trannyscience | Posted 5/3/2007 3:49:23 PM | message detail |
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FE vs. SO? eh, FE probably wins, but not by a lot. --- i do not violation any rules "I hate you for introducing "Man Festival" to my vocabulary." - Heroic Mario |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2007 4:47:33 PM | message detail |
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There's no doubt in my mind FE beats SO, but I dunno by how much. Certainly not as bad as Pokemon did..... --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| trannyscience | Posted 5/3/2007 4:49:35 PM | message detail |
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well, I think of Pokemon as kind of being like Master Chief. it won't crush opponents due to any anti-votes. so basically, I think it's even stronger than SO made it look. --- i do not violation any rules "I hate you for introducing "Man Festival" to my vocabulary." - Heroic Mario |
| Haste_2 | Posted 5/3/2007 5:22:52 PM | message detail |
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I thought you guys would have brought up Fire Emblem's overperformance
on Metal Gear by now. In that match, 8-bit characters + lack of "Solid"
in the title = lots of voters don't think "Metal Gear" includes "Metal
Gear Solid" (plus, Snake himself has underperformed due to sprite
pics). The other matches at least had the modern pictures of Solid
Snake, so the voters had no doubts on those. I think FE would've gotten
more like 28-30% on Metal Gear in a legit match. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2007 5:35:35 PM | message detail |
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True, I'll give you that, but at the same time Fire Emblem is probably
the most obscure opponent Solid/MG ever faced with sprites (except
possibly Frog). Its sprites also didn't look so bad compared to other
examples we've seen. I'm still taking FE over Soul Calibur though. How do people feel about a Fire Emblem/Elder Scrolls match? FE/DMC? FE/Warcraft? --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 5/3/2007 5:37:20 PM | message detail |
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Devil May Cry and Warcraft got shafted because they had to face classic
franchises that nearly everyone has played at some point. I'd wager
they'd do better than what they looked like there. I take both over
Fire Emblem. FE > Elder Scrolls though because I ain't buyin' SF > MG --- "I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier |
| Haste_2 | Posted 5/3/2007 6:30:16 PM | message detail |
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I would definitely take Devil May Cry over Fire Emblem, since I thnk FE
would've done comparable to DMC in their respective matches normally,
and Sonic's stronger than Metal Gear. I'd take Soul Calibur over FE,
too, though it'd be close. I don't think DMC underperformed at all.
Warcraft, probably a little, and GTA, of course, should've beaten
Warcraft. I would take Warcraft over DMC, though. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2007 9:43:29 PM | message detail |
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Man, it's been a long time since I picked an option in a poll that had less than 5%..... --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 5/4/2007 10:10:11 AM | message detail |
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Warcraft was facing Mario. There are only about three series that
wouldn't have underperformed against it, and Mario faced two of them. --- "I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier |
| HaRRicH | Posted 5/4/2007 11:37:40 AM | message detail |
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I'd be tempted to say SMB faced one who over-performed on it, really, but I'd only be getting into an argument of what looks right and I frankly don't have time to do such today or tomorrow. --- This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it...... HaRRicH |
