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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 439

Karma Hunter | Posted 4/4/2007 10:57:08 AM | message detail
'04 Snake vs. '05 Knuckles means nothing; it's two different characters from two different years. You can make all sorts of wild results between two legit x-stats between two different years.

We use the stats themselves in order to more accurately predict what will happen in the following year, and those two particular stats are within a year of each other. Whenever something is off to THAT degree, there's usually a reason. Tidus taught us all that.
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"TIME TO _____ THEN." - Karma Hunter, ABSENT 8
Commit it to memory.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/4/2007 10:57:47 AM | message detail
But Knuckles doesn't have a vagina.

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HaRRicH | Posted 4/4/2007 11:01:33 AM | message detail
Right, but do you feel like Knuckles can compete with Zero and Ryu? If so, you're accepting that Knuckles-2k5 is on par with Solid-2k4 (who not only had his worst year ever, but also allowed Frog to win updates against him). If not, where do you place the blame for Knuckles being over-rated in 2k5?
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This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it......
HaRRicH
HaRRicH | Posted 4/4/2007 11:02:46 AM | message detail
EC has a point there, and I'd like to add onto that: why was Tidus in the wrong side of the bracket last year?! =P
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This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it......
HaRRicH
PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/4/2007 11:02:52 AM | message detail
HE DOESN'T HAVE A VAG.

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ZFS | Posted 4/4/2007 11:04:13 AM | message detail
EC has a point there, and I'd like to add onto that: why was Tidus in the wrong side of the bracket last year?!

Oh no you didn't.

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Listen to my story. This may be our last chance.
voltch | Posted 4/4/2007 11:24:45 AM | message detail
question.
could kratos now take on alucard after GOW2?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
HaRRicH | Posted 4/4/2007 11:43:37 AM | message detail
Kratos arguably could have last year after GoW1 became a Greatest Hit and the Alucard we once knew failed to show up against Auron. I know Alucard has had C:SotN on Xbox Arcade recently, but now that GoW2 is out I'll take Kratos.
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This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it......
HaRRicH
KingBartz | Posted 4/4/2007 1:28:37 PM | message detail
I want a bracket, darnit
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ya watever
HaRRicH | Posted 4/4/2007 1:39:33 PM | message detail
Ya know, CJay didn't announce nominations for the bracket until I made a CS&D topic...perhaps he is waiting on me to make another topic before he announces the bracket!


I hope this delay isn't based on anything nearly as ridiculous as that.....
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This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it......
HaRRicH
Haste_2 | Posted 4/4/2007 7:10:22 PM | message detail
KH, I meant stats one year apart. Take Mario/Zero. In '04, Mario's expected to get 54.45% on Zero, yet got 62.83% the next year. Luigi wasn't very far ahead of KOS-MOS in '04 (or '03), yet he got 66% on her in '05. Sephiroth went from 50.5% to 61% on Mega Man, despite Mega Man (likely) being constant. You also failed to take into account Snake was probablly a little underrated in '04 due to the MM/Snake picture.

In fact, you can make nearly the same case for Dante as for Knuckles:

Snake (2004c) VS Dante (2005c)

Snake has a strength of 33.05.
Dante has a strength of 32.73.

Snake wins with 50.48% of the vote!
A win of 907 with 93,645 total votes cast.

Snake (2004c) VS Dante (2004c)

Snake has a strength of 33.05.
Dante has a strength of 27.33.

Snake wins with 58.65% of the vote!


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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/4/2007 9:49:33 PM | message detail
A Kratos/Alucard rematch would be hard for me to call, as Alucard to me is in the same boat as Mega Man or Crono. He's just bound to drop if he doesn't start doing something new that gamers will buy.

~*ST*~
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2/4/2007 - SUPER BOWL CHAMPION COLTS!!
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, Final Fantasy, FF6A
Ngamer64 | Posted 4/5/2007 1:28:41 AM | message detail
Well, that was out of the blue. Looks like I get to add Contra to

http://board8wiki.com/Have_You_Played

Huzz! Here's hoping this is the start of a string of classic, difficult games.

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
Haste_2 | Posted 4/5/2007 6:14:34 AM | message detail
Kratos beating Alucard now seems obvious to me.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
voltch | Posted 4/5/2007 8:47:28 AM | message detail
well halo2 didn't seem to give a massive boost to master chef so i think Gow2 boosted kratos but alucard would win a by an even smaler margin than last year.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
HaRRicH | Posted 4/5/2007 9:05:32 AM | message detail
Ha...more people who have played Contra has beaten it than the original LoZ!

So what if they used the code?!
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This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it......
HaRRicH
Warsola | Posted 4/5/2007 9:07:59 AM | message detail
I'd pick Alucard over Kratos, if only because if GoW2 = Halo 2, Kratos will be weaker than in 2k5 >___>
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YOU WILL FEEL THE RAGE OF WARCRAFT!!! (and luis)
War. The John Madden of Atari 2600 fanboyism.
LegendarySnake | Posted 4/5/2007 1:54:03 PM | message detail
Don't compare God of War 2 to Halo 2 please. Sales numbers aren't everything. GoW appeals to an audience (and a platform, for that matter) that is more GameFAQs friendly. Dante would beat Master Chief straight up for a reason.
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"I never felt truly alive until I was staring death in the face."
"I'll die...after I kill you."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/5/2007 8:09:45 PM | message detail
Why are people equating GoW with Halo? Halo 2 made MC weaker... so lets apply this logic to any who appears in a new game, because surely they must get weaker!

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Haste_2 | Posted 4/5/2007 8:19:37 PM | message detail
Master Chief DID boost from Halo 2... Nintendo-boosted DK and Sub-Zero would be Frog any day. MC's close to 28% on BL now, and he certainly wasn't that strong in the '03/'04 days.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/5/2007 8:22:28 PM | message detail
Regardless of whether or not you think it boosted him, it's still absolutely ridiculous to apply the trends of Master Chief to Kratos in terms of how his new game will affect him. Let's look at the other 50 characters who have had new releases since prior contest appearances, and how they were affected instead.

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Haste_2 | Posted 4/5/2007 8:42:07 PM | message detail
I'm almost certain Kratos boosted, though it might be limited since GoW2 was released on a system that is now last-gen. A big reason other characters didn't boost from new releases is because the sequels weren't huge hits... for instance, there have been Splinter Cell sequels, but since there weren't nearly as big of a hit as the first, Sam Fisher never boosted (dropped, if anything). Ryu Hayabusa didn't boost from Ninja Gaiden Black because the first X-Box Ninja Gaiden was a much bigger hit, as far as I know. Same with KOS-MOS, Max Payne and other characters.

Also, don't forget that Kratos has only had one game... meaning a second game that's as popular as the first would surely boost him.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
HaRRicH | Posted 4/5/2007 10:58:34 PM | message detail
Also, don't forget that Kratos has only had one game... meaning a second game that's as popular as the first would surely boost him.

HAY THAT SOUNDS A WHOLE AWFUL LOT LIKE MC
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This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it......
HaRRicH
LegendarySnake | Posted 4/6/2007 5:38:00 AM | message detail
I'm almost certain Kratos boosted, though it might be limited since GoW2 was released on a system that is now last-gen.

You think the PS2 is obselete now or something? Not by a long shot. It's still the most widely owned console by far here. This generation is too new (and the PS3 not distributed widely enough) for the last generation to suffer for it.
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"I never felt truly alive until I was staring death in the face."
"I'll die...after I kill you."
therealmnm | Posted 4/6/2007 5:49:46 AM | message detail
Uhhhh, Kratos would be more comparable to Dante than any other character in the contest. The comparison to Master Chief is ludicrous.
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Currently playing: God of War 2, Fable, Ultimate Spiderman, FFVI Advance
Haste_2 | Posted 4/6/2007 6:46:03 AM | message detail
Indeed. Dante boosted 3% against BL from DMC2, and you know how people felt about that game.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Warsola | Posted 4/6/2007 6:47:16 AM | message detail
HAY GUYZ I WAS JOKING LOL ROFFLE
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YOU WILL FEEL THE RAGE OF WARCRAFT!!! (and luis)
War. The John Madden of Atari 2600 fanboyism.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/6/2007 8:35:15 AM | message detail
no one laughed
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/6/2007 8:51:07 AM | message detail
...I kinda did.
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This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it......
HaRRicH
PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/6/2007 8:51:33 AM | message detail
But you laughed at how stupid and silly he was!

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wavedash101 | Posted 4/6/2007 9:30:28 AM | message detail
Ryu Hayabusa didn't boost from Ninja Gaiden Black because the first X-Box Ninja Gaiden was a much bigger hit, as far as I know. Same with KOS-MOS, Max Payne and other characters.

But Black wasnt even a sequel...it was merely a slightly enhanced version of the same game...big difference

If Ninja Gaiden 2 had released in its place, Ryu would have most definitely boosted

Also KOS did boost with Xeno 3...

And conversely, why do people boost from universally hated games or from games that arent even out? Yuna boosted from FF X-2 I believe....Dante boosted from DMC2...Sonic boosted even with nothing but mediocre games since SA2: B...Snake boosted from a couple trailers!

And Alucard also has Dracula X Chronicles coming for the PSP...though I still think that isnt enough to beat Kratos, he should boost some...

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/6/2007 9:43:01 AM | message detail
FFX-2 wasn't universally hated, only here.

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wavedash101 | Posted 4/6/2007 9:44:34 AM | message detail
Well it was certainly disliked...every casual FF fan I know IRL dislikes it...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/6/2007 9:48:36 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/6/2007 9:49:51 AM | message detail
Take a look at FFX-2's reviews on this site, where the hate is probably most prolific. 8's, 9's and 10's dominant the board. Sure there are plenty of low scores, but not nearly as many as 8's and above. It got 86% at gamerankings, and from a user only standpoint it got an 8.0. It's hardly universally hated, and had quite a lot of success in the mainstream.

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therealmnm | Posted 4/6/2007 9:53:57 AM | message detail
Even a mediocre NEW game can cause a character to boost, no matter how disliked it is. The mere exposure should do something for the character theoretically. It may not make the character more of an overall favorite, but they should noticeably beat weaker opponents by a bit more.

Now if the new game hate is strong enough for a person to want to ANTI-vote the character, then that's a different story. FFX-2 definitely didn't make people like Yuna and Rikku less or want to anti-vote them. They undoubtedly became more popular across the video game scene. Especially Rikku.
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Currently playing: God of War 2, Fable, Ultimate Spiderman, FFVI Advance
wavedash101 | Posted 4/6/2007 9:56:19 AM | message detail
Well I'll concede to you on the critical reviews...but they dont necessarily reflect the view of Gfaqs...in fact they rarely do...

And in between many of those 8 and 9 on Gfaqs I see an abnormal amount of 3s and 4s...there are many haters
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/6/2007 9:58:28 AM | message detail
I didn't say there wasn't haters, I said overall it's liked more than it's hated... and we're talking about contests here, and we all know board users and contributors =/= the general GameFAQ's voting public, so I fail to really see your point. If it did, Phoenix Wright would have won the contest last year, or came damn close to it.

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wavedash101 | Posted 4/6/2007 10:00:43 AM | message detail
Hate for DMC2 is extremely strong...people dislike Dante's portrayal in DMC2...it just seems like they blocked it out and pretended he was DMC1 Dante...=|

Also by that token...MC wasnt hurt at all...Halo 2 is a far superior game in the most important area, multiplayer...Halo 1's single player inst that much better than Halo 2's...

So I dont get where the drop due to hate argument is stemming from...its more MC's crazy nonlinearity and the influx of nintendo fans then Halo 2 >_>

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
wavedash101 | Posted 4/6/2007 10:04:34 AM | message detail
I didn't say there wasn't haters, I said overall it's liked more than it's hated... and we're talking about contests here, and we all know board users and contributors =/= the general GameFAQ's voting public, so I fail to really see your point. If it did, Phoenix Wright would have won the contest last year, or came damn close to it.

You know that probably still wouldnt have happened...he would have beaten Gordon though...but remember that the people who regularly visit the site are probably gonna vote throughout the contest, whereas the casual game fan would just be stopping in for a couple mins to look up a walkthrough maybe a couple times during the contest...

Fine I FF X-2 wasnt the best example but there are plenty of though examples of hated games boosting a character...


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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/6/2007 10:06:26 AM | message detail
You know that probably still wouldnt have happened...he would have beaten Gordon though...but remember that the people who regularly visit the site are probably gonna vote throughout the contest, whereas the casual game fan would just be stopping in for a couple mins to look up a walkthrough maybe a couple times during the contest...

The people that regularly visit the boards/contribute probably make up less than 10% of the total votes everyday.

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HaRRicH | Posted 4/6/2007 12:03:46 PM | message detail
FFX-2 DIDN'T EVEN MAKE IT ON THE TOP 100 LIST OF COURSE ITS HATED



FFX-2 isn't universally hated, it's just universally liked less than FFX. It's already been said, but the game has been considered solid by many gamers and reviews, and I think it sold well too. We also know Yuna boosted from it and Rikku probably would have too if we had seen her pre-FFX-2. However, it's practically assumed that fans of both games will prefer FFX to FFX-2, and anecdotal evidence tells me it's an easy decision at that.

Not trying to say there aren't haters though...but then again, it's an FF-game; you are going to have haters no matter which FF-game you speak of.
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This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it......
HaRRicH
LegendarySnake | Posted 4/6/2007 4:48:40 PM | message detail
FFX-2 isn't universally hated, it's just universally liked less than FFX.

Stop the presses! I think we have a candidate for obvious statement of the year!

Seriously though, you can say that about every FF except FFVII. FFVI and FFX I'd consider close to even. I'm not sure who I'd side with head-to-head. Probably FFVI now that it's been re-released.
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"I never felt truly alive until I was staring death in the face."
"I'll die...after I kill you."
ZFS | Posted 4/6/2007 6:16:58 PM | message detail
FFX-2 isn't universally hated, it's just universally liked less than FFX. It's already been said, but the game has been considered solid by many gamers and reviews, and I think it sold well too. We also know Yuna boosted from it and Rikku probably would have too if we had seen her pre-FFX-2. However, it's practically assumed that fans of both games will prefer FFX to FFX-2, and anecdotal evidence tells me it's an easy decision at that.


Well, yeah. I'd be hard pressed to name many games that are universally hated. Board 8 just has an awful tendency to overrate the hate towards games they don't like. Critics loved it, a lot of fans liked it at least (probably more likers than haters at GameFAQs), and, as you mentioned, it sold really well. I think it's the fifth best selling Final Fantasy game (FFX being the second best selling FF game).


The only game I can really think of that I don't know anyone, be it critics or fans, who likes it is Devil May Cry 2. But, hey, it's exposure! Can't hurt too much.

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"Listen to my story. This may be our last chance." -- Tidus
Ngamer64 | Posted 4/6/2007 7:09:45 PM | message detail
Eh... got to disagree with that 10% number you threw out there. I'm sure less than 10% of general visitors contribute, sure, but way more than that are active members of the message boards.

How often do you use the GameFAQs message boards?
Every day, without fail 25.51% 16535
Pretty often, a few times a week 30.13% 19536
Every now and then, maybe once a month 13.76% 8920
Rarely, it's been quite some time 16.35% 10602
I've never even noticed them 14.25% 9237
TOTAL VOTES 64830
(4/10/2006)

Granted, that poll didn't draw the 100k it would during Contest season, but still, ~20% daily and ~50% a few times a week are pretty solid estimates.

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/6/2007 11:38:19 PM | message detail
I'd be interested to see how the 25.51% compares with the 14.25% on how they vote on matches, ha, but I think we've argued over that one alot.

Isn't there a poll about how often the same people vote in PotD's?
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This is my main account, but I see all the cool people doing it......
HaRRicH
Haste_2 | Posted 4/6/2007 11:52:19 PM | message detail
Oops, didn't realize Ninja Gaiden Black was just an enhancement.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
voltch | Posted 4/7/2007 7:38:13 AM | message detail
so odes the theory all pubiciy is good publicity?
since everyone with exposure gets a boost.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Ngamer64 | Posted 4/7/2007 5:36:15 PM | message detail
How often they vote in polls? Hm... well, there was this one from a while back, which is pretty telling as regards the PotD as a site feature in itself.

Have you ever visited GameFAQs just for the Poll of the Day?
I do it all the time 42.92% 21497
I've done it once or twice 17.97% 9001
Only during the tournament battles 13.69% 6855
No, but I've thought about it 3.38% 1693
No, I'm just passing through 22.04% 11038
TOTAL VOTES 50084
(12/11/04)

And early in that year we had this pretty popular poll, again showing that it's one of people's favorite features.

How many of the 1500 Polls of the Day have you taken?
This is my first. 3.09% 2293
2-10 6.56% 4866
11-50 17.11% 12693
51-100 15.84% 11756
101-300 18.04% 13387
301-500 14.03% 10413
501-1000 12.64% 9383
1001-1499 5.74% 4261
All 1500. I'm one of the 838 people who took poll #1. Really. 6.95% 5154
TOTAL VOTES 74206
(1/15/04)

Though that particular poll is more famous for proving that people are also dirty rotten liars.

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/7/2007 9:27:37 PM | message detail
Arms, reload!

~*ST*~
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2/4/2007 - SUPER BOWL CHAMPION COLTS!!
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, Final Fantasy, FF6A