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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 439

ZFS | Posted 3/31/2007 12:00:13 PM | message detail
Yoshi 40.18%
Squall Leonhart 39.77%


Tough one here!

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An infinite world. Infinite possibilities. Infinite Undiscovery.
FfamranBunansa | Posted 3/31/2007 12:13:52 PM | message detail
unless you wanna take that awesome Yuna > Ganondorf upset!!!

Yuna isn't really related to Rikku, in that regard. But speaking of Yuna...

Yuna vs. Zero! Go!
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"Such high hopes I once had...but you ran, and they with you! Alas, your return is too late! Come, Ffamran! Revel in the glory of my triumph!"
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/31/2007 12:18:38 PM | message detail
They're related insofar that if the male half is underrated, they are both respectively overrated by identical degrees. Now if you think Yuna's overrating comes from something like a Zelda overperformance (which I actually do, but for the sake of argument) then that's a little different, but that's a LOT of overrating to pull Zelda even with Ganondorf.

Zelda vs Ganondorf (even indirectly) is the question we should all be pondering right now.

(yes, I'm totally writing off Rikku against Yuna >>)
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/31/2007 12:19:20 PM | message detail
Err, Zero. Or... well, that's a least a closer match than Rikku.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
FfamranBunansa | Posted 3/31/2007 12:23:08 PM | message detail
Rikku stands no chance against Yuna directly or indirectly. But yeah, Tifa's division is overrated for sure, but whether or not Samus underrated the entire male bracket against Snake isn't certain. Yuna getting close to Aeris is weird, but then again, Yuna was the main female of one game and the overall main character of a second, which isn't nearly as hated as people think.
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"Such high hopes I once had...but you ran, and they with you! Alas, your return is too late! Come, Ffamran! Revel in the glory of my triumph!"
FfamranBunansa | Posted 3/31/2007 12:24:28 PM | message detail
Unless Zero underperformed against Yuna, I honestly think it could be a decent match if he dropped like Mega Man did. Doing better against Hayabusa than Yuna did against Chun-Li would give me confidence in Zero, but I wouldn't rule it out.
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"Such high hopes I once had...but you ran, and they with you! Alas, your return is too late! Come, Ffamran! Revel in the glory of my triumph!"
FfamranBunansa | Posted 3/31/2007 12:25:21 PM | message detail
Oh right. Keep Zero running that gauntlet:

Balthier vs. Zero! GO GO GO!
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"Such high hopes I once had...but you ran, and they with you! Alas, your return is too late! Come, Ffamran! Revel in the glory of my triumph!"
HaRRicH | Posted 3/31/2007 1:00:53 PM | message detail
In any case, we all know the men are underrated compared to the women. Zero vs Rikku isn't even a match, you're all being paranoid... y'know, unless you wanna take that awesome Yuna > Ganondorf upset!!!

I agree the men are a bit under-rated, but if you plug Rikku in through Ryu then -- no matter how much rising the men's bracket does -- Rikku is still close to Zero. That would then bring up the question of whether Ryu had a bad match or a bad year in 2k5, which could make for a long unsettled debate, ha.


Samus/Zelda is the reason for Yuna > Ganon and we know that's wrong, but Yuna did pretty outstanding last year anyway. She beat a post-PD0 Joanna nearly as bad as Mario beat her pre-PD0 and she damn near matched Aeris against Zelda. She was also a one-seed, though it hardly matters since it was the female bracket. Yuna kicked some ass in terms of getting stronger last year.
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FfamranBunansa | Posted 3/31/2007 1:37:01 PM | message detail
Samus/Zelda is the reason for Yuna > Ganon and we know that's wrong

I'd sooner buy Samus/Zelda as legit before I'd buy Samus/Snake and Snake/Sonic being legit.
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"Such high hopes I once had...but you ran, and they with you! Alas, your return is too late! Come, Ffamran! Revel in the glory of my triumph!"
Mac Arrowny | Posted 3/31/2007 1:46:12 PM | message detail
Samus/Snake I see as legit. Snake/Sonic fits somewhat better as the anomaly.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 3/31/2007 1:49:46 PM | message detail
Pokemon back out in front, my Day Vote prediction was right on the money!

BTW, I wanted to point out that I don't know if we'll be getting a funny fake bracket for AFD, but today's poll being run a day ahead of time does pretty much confirm a funny fake PotD. Can't wait to see it!

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FfamranBunansa | Posted 3/31/2007 1:52:27 PM | message detail
Well, I personally find Zelda gaining ground on a massively boosted Snake as odd. A little less than 45% on Samus doesn't strike me as odd, really.

Oh, and all that Zelda beats Sonic, Mega Man, and Crono stuff isn't up my alley either. Honestly, Samus/Snake being an anomaly works the best, in my opinion. It clears a lot of things up all at once.
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"Such high hopes I once had...but you ran, and they with you! Alas, your return is too late! Come, Ffamran! Revel in the glory of my triumph!"
HaRRicH | Posted 3/31/2007 1:56:09 PM | message detail
I'm the other way around Mac; there's reason for Samus/Solid to be an anomaly (and we saw how Solid/Yoshi went too, sprites be damned) whereas I see no reason for Solid/Sonic to be an anomaly. Perhaps statistically it would work a bit better like that, but most of the problems brought up I've seen to make a case for Solid/Sonic has come from Yoshi's four-pack. I still fail to see why it's unreasonable for Sonic to have stayed fairly level with Crono and Mega Man like 2k5 said.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 3/31/2007 2:02:51 PM | message detail
whereas I see no reason for Solid/Sonic to be an anomaly

Remind me the logical reasoning for Link/Magus being an anomaly. Or possibly Ryu/Bowser, if that was an anomaly. It doesn't have to have a reason all of the time.

I still fail to see why it's unreasonable for Sonic to have stayed fairly level with Crono and Mega Man like 2k5 said.

Because that's not what 2006 told me from the matches I saw. Sonic looked stronger, Mega Man looked weaker. There should've been a bigger difference. Sora > Auron? No thanks. Oh, and all of these guys barely worth 42% on Samus? Get that outta here.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/31/2007 2:42:54 PM | message detail
So there isn't always an obvious reason, granted, but I'm going to remain skeptical on Solid/Sonic because of that.




As for Sonic looking stronger last year...he should, since he beat Crono and outdid Mega Man against Solid. That said, here's what I see in each of his matches:

CATS: He beat CATS 2.28% better than what the 2k5 stats projected, which is good...but in 2k5, we saw a true Face-CATS picture (which, for both contests in 2k5, made a difference for CATS) whereas we saw what I think was deemed as "hybrid-CATS"...not unrecognizable, but for a character who depends on the picture alot, hey, gotta point it out. The more important thing here is that CATS is also a rather old fad, and we had a new system launch to affect the contest...I would bet it brought in a new influx of gamers that may not be so familiar with CATS, thus making him weaker. Combine those two theories together along with that Sonic still beats Crono and Mega Man, and I think those make just enough difference to be plenty understandable.

Vincent: The higher you make Sonic rise from his unadjusted level, the closer Vincent gets to beating Mega Man...and stats say Vincent already gets 48.28% on the Blue Bomber. I know neither one of us are taking Vincent > Mega Man with our prize-brackets this year, so let's move on.

Luigi: As you've been so kind to point out to me before, it doesn't matter how good Luigi looked against Zero or Kirby when he still falls short of 2k5's projection against Sonic, so that makes me think you feel like Luigi should be about where his 2k5 value said (and Luigi was in Sonic's division in 2k5, too). 2k5 projected Luigi gets 40.68% against Sonic, and 2k6 said Luigi gets 39.81% against Sonic, that seems reasonable given Sonic's next two matches.

Crono: 2k5 said Sonic should have gotten 48.29%, 2k6 said Sonic got 50.77%. Given CATS and Luigi thus far, that's all too reasonable.

Solid Snake: Sonic got 49.63% against Mega Man in 2k5, 2k6 says Sonic would now get 50.38% on him. Again...given CATS, Luigi, and Crono, this isn't so bizarre. What kind of overlap is there in Solid/Sonic that would make for an anomaly in Solid's favor? What kind of event would be bringing in an unusually high number of Solid fans that day to vote against Sonic? What makes this anomaly note-worthy if it even exists; how big of one are you expecting? Just...I don't understand what you're looking for here. An anomaly, yes, but given what I've pointed out I don't understand why.



Other things you noted included Sora > Auron despite how we've seen Sora > Aeris indirectly, the Sonic/Mega/Crono getting 42% on Samus when looking more at Samus/Solid could fix that problem (plus Sonic got 42.49% against Samus in 2k4 though I bet both have risen since then), and that Mega Man looked weaker last year...but remember, two of his opponents were in KH2, one had arguably the biggest reason to ever boost from hype plus a rerelease on his side, and one had a bad year in 2k5, so of course he's going to look bad by the numbers. I've also heard you cite Riku > Bowser as an example, where I would guide you to Solid/Yoshi.

I don't see where else you've having problems with this.
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ZFS | Posted 3/31/2007 4:43:11 PM | message detail
Yuna vs. Zero! Go!

Give me Yuna there. It'd be close, but I think this new beast of a Yuna we saw this past contest has what it takes to hang with him and squeak one out.

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Lady Ashe | Posted 3/31/2007 4:46:07 PM | message detail
Yuna vs. Link! Go!

I would take Yuna, personally.
~~~
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Ngamer64 | Posted 3/31/2007 9:02:46 PM | message detail
And he delivers!

What's the best game ever created?
Big Rigs: Over the Road Racing 17.39% 16
Charlie's Angels 1.09% 1
Custer's Revenge 3.26% 3
E. T. 8.7% 8
Plumbers Don't Wear Ties 5.43% 5
Superman 64 25% 23
I can't pick just one! They're all timeless classics! 39.13% 36
TOTAL VOTES 92

Now the question is, is that it for 2007's AFD, or is the fun just getting started?

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/31/2007 9:43:49 PM | message detail
Given how busy Ceej has been, I wouldn't put my money on there being a ton of jokes this year :(

~*ST*~
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Haste_2 | Posted 3/31/2007 10:30:17 PM | message detail
Do you guys think Yuna boosted more than Auron this year? That just wouldn't make any sense... Well, let's say that Yuna boosted equally to Auron. Auron was expected to beat Yuna with 57.73%... and Zelda didn't even manage that on Yuna this year! Auron is stronger than Zelda, perhaps? Actually, considering Ganondorf is just barely above Auron, that makes plenty sense to me. Also, that would mean Ganon is indirectly stronger than Zelda, if only by a little.

Soooo... in my opinion, Zelda must've overperformed against Samus, or else Samus dropped, yet managed to (r)SFF Snake a massive amount. I see no reason for Samus to have dropped, so my conclusion is that Zelda/Samus WAS a fluke. Or maybe Yuna really did boost through the roof more than just about anybody for no apparent reason...

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Haste_2 | Posted 4/1/2007 7:38:16 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Haste_2 | Posted 4/1/2007 7:57:16 AM | message detail
Do you guys think Yuna boosted more than Auron this year?

That is... between '05 and '06. Also, of course I'm aware that Zelda would probably beat Auron this year (though I certainly wouldn't count Auron out).

That just wouldn't make any sense... Well, let's say that Yuna boosted equally to Auron. Auron was expected to beat Yuna with 57.73%...
That is to say... Yuna and Auron both faced Ganondorf in '05.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 4/1/2007 11:33:32 AM | message detail
DID SOMEBODY SAY ZERO VS RIKKU?

Yeah.....Rikku would job.
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Haste_2 | Posted 4/2/2007 7:13:42 AM | message detail
Zero vs. Yuna or even Zero vs. Riku seems more interesting.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/2/2007 5:41:39 PM | message detail
SO HOW 'BOUT DAT CONTEST.

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ZFS | Posted 4/2/2007 5:48:06 PM | message detail
Yuna vs. Zero is cake. I mean, Yuna totally almost got as much as Mario on a post-PDZ Joanna! The choice is clear!

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Big Bob | Posted 4/2/2007 5:48:31 PM | message detail
Are you SURE the quote contest is still on? Seems pretty cancelled to me.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/3/2007 8:11:31 AM | message detail
Yuna vs. Zero is cake. I mean, Yuna totally almost got as much as Mario on a post-PDZ Joanna! The choice is clear!

Samus > Mario!

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Explicit Content.
V-Tokens: 847
daverath | Posted 4/3/2007 8:28:38 AM | message detail
Once the contest starts, if it has 32 entrants in traditional style, it will last 63 days. So if the brackets went up say, today and the contest started in 2 weeks, it would end around June 20th, which means the summer contest would probably have to have nominations already over and bracket up soon to even start in July.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 4/3/2007 8:58:21 AM | message detail
Uhhh, if it has 32 entrants, it will last 31 days.
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 4/3/2007 9:45:51 AM | message detail
The "Summer Contest" has been taking place later and later in the year, as the years go by. I don't even think Ceej calls it the Spring and Summer ones anymore (though they still will to me).

We always have at least 2, since 2004, and the Games contest I think was well underway at this time in 04? So now it'll technically be "Summer Contest" and "Fall Contest" >_>
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/3/2007 12:16:51 PM | message detail
Once the contest starts, if it has 32 entrants in traditional style, it will last 63 days. So if the brackets went up say, today and the contest started in 2 weeks, it would end around June 20th, which means the summer contest would probably have to have nominations already over and bracket up soon to even start in July.

GIVE THE MAN A V-TOKEN.

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LegendarySnake | Posted 4/3/2007 4:06:48 PM | message detail
...V-TOKEN?!
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wavedash101 | Posted 4/3/2007 4:28:47 PM | message detail
V-TOKEN!!!!

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Miss_Rydia | Posted 4/3/2007 4:36:30 PM | message detail
oh oops I said 32 entrants but counted 32 matches. Indeed it's only a month long for 32.

<3 Miss R
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 4/3/2007 4:55:47 PM | message detail
I swear we need a Tag Team Contest. Theres no way it would blow more than the Villain Contest and the first round of the Female Bracket.
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wavedash101 | Posted 4/3/2007 4:56:53 PM | message detail
Never say never Hiko McDropkickpants
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XIII_rocks | Posted 4/3/2007 4:57:04 PM | message detail
Snake overperformed on Sonic. Mega Man certainly wouldn't have gotten as close to him (or even Crono) as the stats suggest - there's just no way. KH2 or not, Sora and Axel aren't that bloody strong, and neither is Ryu (though I do think there was something iffy in Ryu/Bowser, it certainly wasn't large enough for Mega to look weaker than him).

Meanwhile, take a look at Knuckles. Three years in a row, he's stuck behind Snake in the stats. The next year, bam, he pulls off the biggest upset of all time. ...Does that not suggest a small amount of overlap? Sonic avoided a degree of the SFF because he's the benchmark character of the series and is just plain stronger than Knuckles, but he still took a hefty amount of what was there. I mean, there's SFF in every match, of course. But here, there was more than usual. Snake/Samus? Different story. That looks about right to me.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/3/2007 8:58:16 PM | message detail
Three years in a row, he's stuck behind Snake in the stats. The next year, bam, he pulls off the biggest upset of all time. ...Does that not suggest a small amount of overlap? Sonic avoided a degree of the SFF because he's the benchmark character of the series and is just plain stronger than Knuckles, but he still took a hefty amount of what was there. I mean, there's SFF in every match, of course. But here, there was more than usual.

This first struck me as the most convincing argument for Solid/Sonic SFF yet, but I've investigated into that matter some...you can't judge Knuckles boosting/being behind SFF by comparing with other opponents using Akira Yuki or Yuna pre-FFX-2 (and even if FFX-2 never happened, she missed 2k4/was behind Mario-Samus/was behind Samus-Zelda). The argument is that Solid SFF'd Knuckles, so we can't use three more matches of Knuckles...though it's interesting to note that there was a correlation between how well Solid did on Knuckles each year and how well he performed in the final x-stats; I would think SFF may be a bit more steady than that, although we don't have enough information one way or another to really say. This leaves Kefka, Magus, and Squall to judge by...

...I remember Leonhart distinctly saying the Knuckles we had seen pre-2k5 would not have beaten Magus -- even after Magus was exposed. Whether that's because Knuckles was SFF'd all these years or boosted nicely, let's go on. We can't use Squall-2k6 since KH2 happened (and it's argued both of his matches this year had some SFF, though only Squall/Tidus is certain) and Squall-2k4 could be considered useless (Bomberman's been snubbed since then, Kirby and Bomberman both were arguably behind Alucard/Sephiroth SFF, and Squall certainly got SFF'd by Cloud)...so if we're going to do this, we need to assume Knuckles wasn't behind any SFF in 2k5; the best cases one could make is Vincent managing to rSFF Squall for the win or Crono (r)SFF'ing Vincent, so considering what we saw last year I hereby deem it unlikely Knuckles was behind SFF. Now, if only we could find some other common opponent with Knuckles we've not discussed...

...Kefka, right. Kefka got 42.54% on Knuckles in the first round of 2k4 (thus being able to ignore Knuckles/Solid and Link/Mega) and Kefka was in 2k5 as well; odds are, the only anomaly involved with him is the cheating that came in his favor against Vercetti. That said, if you assume Knuckles was supposed to get 57.46% on Kefka again in 2k5, that lands Knuckles at 24.47% in the final 2k5 stats...which is barely below Vivi. Would you think Vivi/Magus would be close? Furthermore, Knuckles is already in the stats at 29.77%...that means Knuckles is expected to get nearly 59% on Vivi by the stats we have right now. That's a 9% difference between Knuckles-2k4 and Knuckles-2k5 that doesn't involve Solid Snake at all...

...then, to add to that, Sonic also improved in 2k5 as well, so that would help reason with the idea Knuckles boosted decently (although release-wise I don't remember if there is any obvious reasoning for those two to boost at the time). When you consider all that, I find it difficult to buy Solid SFF'ing Knuckles three years straight to varying degrees each time and even moreso to believe Solid would SFF Sonic until I'm convinced either Solid really did SFF Knuckles (which I like to think I just disproved) or Solid and Sonic both share a decent bit of Nintendo support and Solid is overwhelmingly favored in that demographic.


Best of luck.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/3/2007 9:05:33 PM | message detail
Now, I'll take this a bit further and give you one point: Knuckles DOES get more on Solid in 2k5 despite MGS3's release (43.93% compared to 2k4's 40.46%), but I feel like I've covered all the bases to show why Knuckles boosted instead of being SFF'd.
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Haste_2 | Posted 4/3/2007 9:07:23 PM | message detail
I could buy Snake/Sonic SFF or MM/Snake '06 rSFF... I think most likely one or the other happened. I'm a fan of saying Snake/Sonic (and Squall/Snake) was legit, and that MM/Snake rSFF happened, though...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/3/2007 9:17:03 PM | message detail
That was a lengthy and intricate analysis, HaRR. Allow me to present my counter-argument

Knuckles (2005c) VS Snake (2004c)

Knuckles has a strength of 32.49.
Snake has a strength of 33.05.

Snake wins with 50.85% of the vote!
A win of 1,580 with 93,264 total votes cast.


That's all.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/3/2007 9:20:58 PM | message detail
Considering we've seen Mega/Solid face off twice before and they result accurately, I don't trust Mega Man being able to rSFF Solid in their third match. If so, it would have to be mostly off of that newly-shared Nintendo fanbase (which would be mostly SSB-based for Solid, a series Mega Man has never been a part of). It's one thing for me to believe Mega Man shares a lot of his fanbase with, say, Link and Yoshi, yet it's another for me to believe Mega Man shares a lot of his fanbase with Solid Snake.

Yes, I say this openly admitting I'm a Nintendo fan who has Mega Man and Solid Snake for two of my favorite characters. I'm not the norm as far as this goes though, and I wouldn't think that this demographic I'm a part of would favor one character much more than the other, (r)SFF or not.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/3/2007 9:23:35 PM | message detail
Ha, and imagine if Solid was unadjusted!

Don't forget Solid was on the level of Zero and Ryu in 2k4. Does anybody think Knuckles cannot compete with Zero or Ryu now?
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XIII_rocks | Posted 4/4/2007 6:21:30 AM | message detail
Oh, I'm in no doubt Knuckles boosted a bit to beat Magus. He maybe felt a side effect of the N boost, because Sonic did as well. And Magus was obviously overrated. But Knuckles has been described as "boosting through the roof". Maybe he boosted slightly (how much did Sonic even boost? I'd imagine it to be less even than that), and the rest was just the SFF. I wouldn't hesitate in saying that Snake pulled more in the N voting demographic, slightly - bear in mind that 55-45 could never be called a massive SFF fest. Maybe...3% of SFF, putting Sonic at 48% or so, which seems more or less right. The old-school Nintendo fans might hav antivoted Sonic, seeing him as the old enemy or something. A small number, sure, but like I said, we're dealing in a small overperformance here. Then there's the fact that the match took place just before Sonic Next-Gen - and the demo had been absolutely horrible. Snake, meawhile, had just received the SSBB trailer.

Maybe 6000 people SFF voted Snake more than they SFF voted Sonic, and the factors I mentioned just about make up that number.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/4/2007 7:46:15 AM | message detail
He maybe felt a side effect of the N boost, because Sonic did as well.

Why does Sonic and Knuckles boosting have to be related to the Nintendo Boost?


Knuckles has been described as "boosting through the roof". Maybe he boosted slightly (how much did Sonic even boost? I'd imagine it to be less even than that), and the rest was just the SFF.

Sonic boosted about 3% I think, which is definitely suspicious. However, I wouldn't blame Solid SFF'ing Knuckles for his extreme boost since we're judging this boost off of a constant Kefka and the assumption Knuckles was behind no big anomalies in 2k5. Do you disagree with either of those?


The old-school Nintendo fans might hav antivoted Sonic, seeing him as the old enemy or something.

I would think they would vote against him in most matches then.


A small number, sure, but like I said, we're dealing in a small overperformance here.

It's not so small when it's in the Final Four and is a 55-45 match, and it's not to small when it's supposed to send him 3% above the character who beat him the year before either.


Then there's the fact that the match took place just before Sonic Next-Gen - and the demo had been absolutely horrible. Snake, meawhile, had just received the SSBB trailer.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2710

Demos aren't all that popular here, and a demo isn't going to make or break a legend like Sonic. Hell, I used to say Samus would boost minimally when the MP:Hunters demo was packaged with the new DS and she didn't get to show much of a boost (if any at all). Sonic Next-Gen's demo isn't going to make Sonic fans reject Sonic nor Nintendo fans prefer Solid Snake purely off of hype.
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Haste_2 | Posted 4/4/2007 7:50:14 AM | message detail
'04 Snake vs. '05 Knuckles means nothing; it's two different characters from two different years. You can make all sorts of wild results between two legit x-stats between two different years. Plus, Snake '04 was probably a little underrated, anyway.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
therealmnm | Posted 4/4/2007 8:02:30 AM | message detail
Guys... I have a confession. I'm tired of stats. <_<;
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Haste_2 | Posted 4/4/2007 8:06:22 AM | message detail
The closest thing you can get to "proving" anything is using stats, though. =P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 4/4/2007 10:46:45 AM | message detail
That was a lengthy and intricate analysis, KH. Allow me to present my counter-argument

LOL KHF

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Explicit Content.
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