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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 437

HeroicTronBonne | Posted 2/8/2007 5:04:41 PM | message detail
Haven't done one of these since last summer, if I recall.

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games (down for now, so here's a new link):
http://transience.paragonsigma.com/top100.txt

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php

Nominate "Fission Mailed" if you have any left!
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Mr. Inverse Absolute Power
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
LeonhartForever | Posted 2/8/2007 5:26:36 PM | message detail
"There's a bomb in the lasagna!" would win this contest if it had a video game origin.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 2/8/2007 7:19:05 PM | message detail
I think you might be onto something there
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Mr. Inverse Absolute Power
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/8/2007 9:39:09 PM | message detail
Tag.

~*ST*~
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2/4/2007 - SUPER BOWL CHAMPION COLTS!!
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: PoR
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 2/9/2007 1:26:07 PM | message detail
Been almost a month now...
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Mr. Inverse Absolute Power
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Big Bob | Posted 2/9/2007 1:29:56 PM | message detail
How is tagging superior to tracking?
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~Board 8's Official One Piece fanboy~
ZFS | Posted 2/9/2007 4:46:38 PM | message detail
Sure, but the DS has introduced the game to a whole new generation of Nintendo fans, which should go a good ways towards boosting its strength, indirectly. My point is that this is the same situation as we had last Contest, with Snake coming in hot off a Brawl boost. He's got his original fans, who put him up in that MM/Crono/Sonic area, but he also has new Nintendo interest, which allowed him to pound their faces in. But in the end, he's going to have to meet up with a Nintendo big name (Sam/Mario/Link), that new base of support will disappear, and he can't compete.


That is actually an entirely different scenario. Snake was being inserted into Brawl as a character; it was not Metal Gear Solid appearing on the Wii. You're directly putting Snake into a game that non-Snake fans care about. I cannot back this up with any sort of concrete evidence, but I would wager that many people started caring a bit more about Snake just because he was put into Brawl. It would do more than any Metal Gear Solid game could ever do, even if one were released on the Wii.


With Final Fantasy VI, you're simply taking a game that had already had its appearance on a Nintendo system in the past and putting it onto another Nintendo system, except in handheld form and giving it to people who might not have had the opportunity to play it. I don't suspect that you would see any sort of dramatic boost for Final Fantasy VI as a result, but it can only help out -- and not due to this sudden mass of Nintendo fans racing toward it. Remember, anyone who doesn't care about Final Fantasy VI before is not suddenly going to care now. Or maybe you'll have a few who are willing to give it another chance since it's easily accessible. Who knows. But you certainly are not going to see what happened to Snake. The Nintendo fanbase is already giving it plenty of support, even against Nintendo games.


One honestly needs to look no further than how well it did against A Link to the Past. I wager that FFVI does not do much worse, if at all, against ALttP in a match today. ALttP may do a few percentage points better, but it won't be because of SFF or anything like that. It would just be how this site has changed a bit since 2004. Even with that change, though, people are not suddenly going to dislike FFVI less.

I'm not saying FF6's original base won't be there, my point is that that base alone can't get it past Lttp/CT/Melee/Mario 3, as 2004 showed. But because that Elite group (plus TP) is almost all Nintendo big guns, the new support is going to evaporate and FF6 STILL won't be able to get over the hump. But put something like MGS in its line of fire, and I bet it the combined Nintendo/Square support could really surprise some people.


I wholeheartedly disagree on a few of those. I would not expect it to beat ALttP or CT simply because those games were proven to be stronger than it. I don't see much reason for that to change, although the FFVIA release might help it out a bit. But SMB3, Melee, and TP? I have said it long before and I'll say it again -- I'd take FFVI over all three of them. I understand well that it is the farthest thing from a lock, and each match would be pretty intense except for maybe TP, but FFVI isn't a step below any of those games. It's right on par with them; it can very well beat them in a match. It can certainly lose, too, so don't think I'm saying it's a guarantee. I'd take my chances on it, though.

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"I am Judge Magister. Even in disgrace." -- Gabranth
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/9/2007 4:47:49 PM | message detail
Good ol' HM is back in FULL Square-mode AW YEAH KICKASS
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
luke | Posted 2/9/2007 4:48:16 PM | message detail
a topical 500? holy crap !!
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xyzzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 2/9/2007 4:48:45 PM | message detail
Unintentional 500 for the win!
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
luke | Posted 2/9/2007 4:52:36 PM | message detail
next we'll have someone make the next topic when we hit 500! ...nah.

anyway, I see the game contest tiered like this..

FF7
Ocarina of Time

Link to the Past
Chrono Trigger
Twilight Princess
Super Smash Bros. Melee

Mario 3
FF6

...where the games on each tier could beat each other in a contest match. it's the next tier that messes me up, because I can't even conceive of what the next five games would be at the moment. I'd say..

Mario 64
Super Mario World
Metal Gear Solid
Final Fantasy X
Final Fantasy 8
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 2/9/2007 4:53:16 PM | message detail
Good ol' HM is back in FULL Square-mode AW YEAH KICKASS


I like to think I'm being plenty reasonable, so I wouldn't really call it a "mode" !! :P

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"I am Judge Magister. Even in disgrace." -- Gabranth
LeonhartForever | Posted 2/9/2007 4:54:01 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid over FFX and FFVIII? After it practically fluked out a win against FFT?

Well, I suppose it's possible that MGS has grown in strength since then, but I wouldn't take MGS over either of them with ANY certainty.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/9/2007 4:54:15 PM | message detail
I think you overrate SSBM a bit. It's pretty strong, but I don't see it being able to do toe-to-toe with CT/LttP. TP maybe, only because it's untested.
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Rufus Shinra won the Guru Contest. I didn't. Rufus > Kleenex.
Now playing: Final Fantasy V Advance, Devil May Cry
luke | Posted 2/9/2007 4:54:43 PM | message detail
oh, those weren't in order. I was just listing five games I felt were the "next tier".
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/9/2007 4:55:47 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid was held back by its crippling weakness of CRAPPY VOTALS in 2004 (Snake too!). Expect great things from a games contest that actually averages over 100,000 votes a match!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 2/9/2007 4:55:56 PM | message detail
Ah, I see. Still, I don't really know what to think of Mario 64 either. People seem to be convinced that it'd be quite strong, but I dunno how high I'd take it.

I'd definitely like to see Mario 64/Mario World in a Games Contest though.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
ZFS | Posted 2/9/2007 4:56:29 PM | message detail
Link to the Past
Chrono Trigger
Twilight Princess
Super Smash Bros. Melee

Mario 3
FF6


I disagree with the placement of Melee and Twilight Princess. I think they're in the tier with Mario 3 and FFVI, but otherwise I would agree with what you had.

---
"I am Judge Magister. Even in disgrace." -- Gabranth
luke | Posted 2/9/2007 4:56:32 PM | message detail
GOOD OL' KH is still in MGS-mode AW YEAH KICKASS
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xyzzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 2/9/2007 4:57:43 PM | message detail
MGS mode is always a good thing. 9/10 doctors highly recommend it!

That tenth doctor is always a troublemaker, I tell you what.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/9/2007 4:57:45 PM | message detail
YOU BETTER BELIEVE IT

This quote contest can't start soon enough. MGS is finally gonna take home the gold !!
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
ZFS | Posted 2/9/2007 4:58:11 PM | message detail
Well, there's one more thing. I would add FFT into the tier with those games if you're going to put MGS there. I think FFT would be right up there with FFVIII -- but both would be below FFX in strength.

---
"I am Judge Magister. Even in disgrace." -- Gabranth
ZFS | Posted 2/9/2007 4:58:52 PM | message detail
This quote contest can't start soon enough. MGS is finally gonna take home the gold !!


MORE LIKE SON OF A SANDWORM AMIRITE OR AMIRITE?!

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"I am Judge Magister. Even in disgrace." -- Gabranth
LeonhartForever | Posted 2/9/2007 4:58:53 PM | message detail
Anything that refers to an MGS quote must end in a bolded exclamation point! There is no exception!
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/9/2007 4:59:55 PM | message detail
I would love to see "Son of a Sandworm!" in if only for the board (and site) reaction.
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 2/9/2007 5:00:36 PM | message detail
LOL BT
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
luke | Posted 2/9/2007 5:01:05 PM | message detail
I think you overrate SSBM a bit. It's pretty strong, but I don't see it being able to do toe-to-toe with CT/LttP. TP maybe, only because it's untested.

very possible.. but it just keeps on impressing me. I can't overstate how much that match with Mario impressed me. I didn't think it'd break 30%, let alone 38%. I would say it is definitely on a different level than Mario 3 -- whether or not it's in the class of CT or LTTP is another thing.

Ah, I see. Still, I don't really know what to think of Mario 64 either. People seem to be convinced that it'd be quite strong, but I dunno how high I'd take it.

I'd definitely like to see Mario 64/Mario World in a Games Contest though.

yeah, I'm tired of M64 disappointing me. (darn you, top 10 list!) M64 has done nothing noteworthy, but you have to admit that it's a pack-in game for a system that may house the strongest game on the site. it's also a very highly regarded title and is "influential" and all that good stuff. it seems like it should be stronger than it is... I wish we could see Mario World / LTTP to see how the SFF goes, because OOT/SM64 is still shocking to this day.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/9/2007 5:02:19 PM | message detail
I still say Goldeneye puts Mario 64 down decisively here. No knock against Mario 64 at all, mind you, but I would've taken that in the first Games Contest and after all I've seen, I'd only be more confident.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
ZFS | Posted 2/9/2007 5:02:22 PM | message detail
I'm interested in seeing how many of Kefka's quotes actually end up making the contest. I know I have seen plenty of questions over at the FFVIA board asking if they had the quote right for nominations. Heh.

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"I am Judge Magister. Even in disgrace." -- Gabranth
LeonhartForever | Posted 2/9/2007 5:02:37 PM | message detail
Yeah, I think OoT/Mario 64 is what prevents me from believing it can hang with that tier right below the Super Seven. Sure, I shouldn't let SFF affect my thinking so much, but that was downright brutal.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
luke | Posted 2/9/2007 5:03:04 PM | message detail
I don't think FFT is that strong. it's got strength for sure, but not on the level of the M64/FF10/FF8/MGS level.

I know, I know, 38 votes. but I think that's more weirdness involving MGS and FF than anything else. I also think FFT would be on the decline as the years go by. I have no solid reasoning for this, it's just a feeling.

I also think MGS has gotten more popular on this site recently, for whatever reason.
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xyzzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 2/9/2007 5:03:57 PM | message detail
Don't forget about the PSP port (Playstation Portable port?!) of FFT for MASSIVE BOOSTAGE!
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
luke | Posted 2/9/2007 5:04:52 PM | message detail
even Super Metroid held up better than Mario 64. something's wrong there -- it's Samus.

yeah, 007 was the next game on my list. we've all had MGS/007/M64 arguments before and I certainly believe it's in that class. tough to pick against Mario though, it just feels wrong.
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 2/9/2007 5:07:54 PM | message detail
I really can't agree with these ideas of games that old just continuing to decline as years go by. Games are a bit different than characters, I think. More people are not likely to like an entire game less as the years go by, especially since the games contest wasn't that long ago.


I hadn't thought about the MGS/FF craziness that happens when those two meet, though, so that might prevent it from being up there with that tier. I would imagine if there was any sort of SFF going on there, FFT is just a step below that tier. Not a by whole, though.

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"I am Judge Magister. Even in disgrace." -- Gabranth
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/9/2007 5:08:25 PM | message detail
Metroid in the games contest seemed stronger than it should have been in general.

...can Metroid Prime really break 45% on Wind Waker again?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Lady Ashe | Posted 2/9/2007 5:09:12 PM | message detail
I haven't entered these in a while, but it looks like we're getting posts other than bumps!

Awesome.
~~~
http://www.flowsion.net/blogs/?w=Genesis
Yuna.
LeonhartForever | Posted 2/9/2007 5:09:42 PM | message detail
...I don't know if I'd take that bet.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
luke | Posted 2/9/2007 5:14:25 PM | message detail
well, I think Prime is Metroid's strongest game by a good bit. and Wind Waker was certainly one of the two weaker Zelda games.

..then again, Prime let Half-Life get 43% or something. nothing against Half-Life, but PC games have never looked that strong before or since. I dunno, I think Prime has some decent strength, but I dunno if it could repeat what it got on Zelda there.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/9/2007 5:14:51 PM | message detail
Eh, memory off, 45%, 44.78%, what's the difference?

But if I had never seen that match before, today I would have said MP doesn't break 40% on Wind Waker. I mean, mixed reception or not, it's the defining Zelda title of the GC...the defining Zelda title of the GC against the GC Metroid...

GAH
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 2/9/2007 5:16:18 PM | message detail
Day 22 of the Nomination Rally Tournament:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=33535150
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
luke | Posted 2/9/2007 5:16:18 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/psx/

heh, FFT is below FF9 in FAQ hits. not that this means anything, it's just kinda funny given FF9's track record.

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xyzzy
luke | Posted 2/9/2007 5:18:18 PM | message detail
But if I had never seen that match before, today I would have said MP doesn't break 40% on Wind Waker. I mean, mixed reception or not, it's the defining Zelda title of the GC...the defining Zelda title of the GC against the GC Metroid...

as always, you give Metroid no respect! Metroid isn't Mario or Zelda, but it's got a decent fanbase. it's not going to get destroyed just because it's up against the Zelda name, the game has to be good too.

hmm.. Metroid Prime or Resident Evil 4? I always wonder how RE4 will do if it goes up against a Nintendo franchise.. will it get abandoned like N was suggesting with FF6?
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/9/2007 5:20:10 PM | message detail
I'll shift gears with an example then if you think I'm not giving Metroid enough respect -- Super Mario Sunshine vs Sonic 2.

Pick the percentages.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
luke | Posted 2/9/2007 5:22:04 PM | message detail
55-45, SMS :)
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xyzzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 2/9/2007 5:22:32 PM | message detail
GAH.
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"I'm only here to see how the story plays out. Any self-respecting leading man would do the same." - Balthier
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/9/2007 5:22:41 PM | message detail
YOU'RE GOING DOWN TRAN MAN
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
luke | Posted 2/9/2007 5:23:41 PM | message detail
who the hell is tran man

what do you think? I sat there for a second like "uhh... uh..."
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 2/9/2007 5:26:34 PM | message detail
heh, FFT is below FF9 in FAQ hits. not that this means anything, it's just kinda funny given FF9's track record.

Look what FFXII is rocking right now on the FAQ listing. Doesn't mean anything indeed. :P

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"I am Judge Magister. Even in disgrace." -- Gabranth
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/9/2007 5:26:56 PM | message detail
I think Sonic 2 gets destroyed due to the Mario name on a main Mario series title...and it really doesn't crack 40%. I could be *way* off, but that's my impression -- and if I hadn't seen WW vs Metroid Prime and you asked me to pick that percentage after seeing SMB3/Metroid, LttP/SM, and Zelda/Metroid (ARGH)...well, I would probably think it'd be ridiculous to even suggest it get over 40%!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
ZFS | Posted 2/9/2007 5:27:09 PM | message detail
who the hell is tran man


You in Robot Master form, of course. !!

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"I am Judge Magister. Even in disgrace." -- Gabranth