GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 434
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/30/2006 4:23:01 PM | message detail |
|
...or for Zelda to be equally over-rated. --- Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/30/2006 4:27:38 PM | message detail |
|
Zelda is overrated. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 9: Phoenix Wright (6-2) |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/30/2006 4:29:00 PM | message detail |
|
I agree, but nothing like Tifa is. --- Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/30/2006 4:42:21 PM | message detail |
|
Also, I'm fooling with guesses on what to do with the top several
characters' strengths (which has Samus instead of Solid, sorry, not
bothering to debate it right now), and I wanted to see what ya'll
thought about these simple guesses: Link 50.00% Cloud 46.07% Sephiroth 43.60% Mario 38.01% Samus 36.41% Solid Snake 34.87% Zelda 31.48% Tifa 29.25% Link/Cloud is legit, I figure FF:AC and KH2 would help Cloud beat Sephiroth just a tiny bit worse than last year projected, Sephiroth beats Mario a little worse this time, and NSMB/increased DS ownership helps Mario pull away from Samus indirectly (about the DS -- I know Samus is Nintendo too, but its top three games are SM64DS, MKDS, and NSMB, so nyah). From there, I think I gave Solid another percent against Samus and took away 1.5% from Zelda. Last, I took what I have for Vincent right now (30.09%) and assumed Tifa cut the gap between her and Vincent in half since last year, placing her at 29.25%. Obviously, it's all guesstimations and I'm comfortable with that. However, I'm wanting to see if they're fairly reasonable as well. I don't entirely agree with them myself (it still has Zelda barely ousting Sonic/Mega Man/Crono, for example), but as long as it's in the general ballpark then I'm fine with going from here. --- Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/30/2006 4:50:17 PM | message detail |
|
Oh come on, you can't buy both Peach and Jill being
upper-midcarders...both Zelda and Tifa are overrated, I'll agree with
that, but Tifa by much more. I say if those two went up against each
other, Zelda gets around 53% And that would put Chun over Peach, so there! --- Moltar Status: Rocked by Rufus Shinra in bracketmaking. Final SC2K6 score: 176...at least my alt made the Top 15 |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/30/2006 4:51:59 PM | message detail |
|
53%? No chance Zelda wins that easily. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 9: Phoenix Wright (6-2) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/30/2006 4:58:46 PM | message detail |
|
Link : Zelda :: Cloud : Tifa Analogies, baby! And I don't see it as impossible either. Zelda looked scary this year, while Tifa didn't exactly impress save one massive overperformance. --- Moltar Status: Rocked by Rufus Shinra in bracketmaking. Final SC2K6 score: 176...at least my alt made the Top 15 |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/30/2006 5:00:20 PM | message detail |
|
Yes, and Tifa would've been guaranteed to beat at least 3 out of 4 of
Zelda's opponents worse than she did, and she outperformed her on Samus
directly! --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 9: Phoenix Wright (6-2) |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/30/2006 5:01:54 PM | message detail |
|
Tifa would have SFF'd Terra and Yuna worse than Zelda, sure, and maybe Aeris too...but, uh, come on, heh. --- Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/30/2006 5:08:57 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/30/2006 5:10:05 PM | message detail |
|
Actually, maybe I shouldn't just forget to read. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 9: Phoenix Wright (6-2) |
| redrocket | Posted 11/30/2006 5:12:56 PM | message detail |
|
Yuna (2006c) VS Auron (2006c) Yuna has a strength of 35.26. Auron has a strength of 34.68. Yuna wins with 50.82% of the vote! A win of 2,141 with 130,183 total votes cast. Best thing to come out of this contest. |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/30/2006 5:43:38 PM | message detail |
|
You know that result requires Tifa being legit this year, right? No it doesn't.... not at all actually. I adjusted Tifa down probably more than anyone else and she's still above her in my stats. --- Portugal. The Man Rufus Shinra 777 violated me... he violated me all night long. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/30/2006 6:12:48 PM | message detail |
|
What do you have Tifa getting on Samus? --- Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/30/2006 6:13:19 PM | message detail |
|
Link : Zelda :: Cloud : Tifa This man knows what's up! --- "The history of light and shadow will be written in blood!" |
| Haste_2 | Posted 11/30/2006 6:21:55 PM | message detail |
|
Well, if you assume Snake vs. Sonic was legit and you use a constant
Mega Man from last year, Squall boosted about 1.5% from KH2. Of course,
I don't know if that's the right way to look at things... but let's
just say that's right. You would think Tifa would get a bit larger
boost than Squall, as it's her first KH2 role, not to mention FF7:
AC...35-36% on BL seems like a good value for TIfa. I think it's fine
if Jill's a little higher than Hayabusa of last year. --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/30/2006 6:44:22 PM | message detail |
|
Ha, I've got Jill under Hayabusa by accident by my stats...but I don't really care who's ahead as long as they're pretty close. --- Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 11/30/2006 6:50:51 PM | message detail |
|
Proof that Peach = Luigi! http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1339 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1309 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2534 This year's x-stats are accurate! --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/30/2006 6:58:21 PM | message detail |
|
Ahem, that's proof that Peach > Luigi! Unfortunately, I hate seeing Squall > Luigi. --- Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/30/2006 7:49:22 PM | message detail |
|
From the stats I got right now, here's a bracket off the S-curve of the
stats I got right now...oh, and also battles for the 16-seeds as well
off my stats: A: Cortana VS Carmen Sandiego B: Kerrigan VS Princess Daisy C: Roll VS Alyx Vance D: Lenneth Valkyrie VS Jade 1-Link 16-A 8-Chun-Li 9-KOS-MOS 5-Sora 12-The Boss 4-Ganondorf 13-Sheena 6-Luigi 11-Lara Croft 3-Mega Man 14-Nidoran F 7-Kirby 10-Kairi 2-Sonic 15-Soma Cruz 1-Mario 16-D 8-Rikku 9-Ryu ayabusa 5-Yuna 12-Phoenix Wright 4-Tifa 13-Ivy Valentine 6-Bowser 11-Claire Redfield 3-Squall 14-Tingle 7-Sub-Zero 10-Alucard 2-Solid Snake 15-Joanna Dark 1-Sephiroth 16-C 8-Kratos 9-Tidus 5-Aeris 12-Marle 4-Yoshi 13-Amy Rose 6-Ryu 11-Prince of Persia 3-Vincent 14-Kasumi 7-Zero 10-Princess Peach 2-Samus 15-CATS 1-Cloud 16-B 8-Master Chief 9-Gordon Freeman 5-Auron 12-Captain Falcon 4-Dante 13-Ada Wong 6-Riku 11-Axel 3-Crono 14-Terra 7-Leon Kennedy 10-Jill Valentine 2-Zelda 15-Celes --- Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/30/2006 8:08:09 PM | message detail |
|
Oh, the only thing I changed is switching Solid's and Samus's 2/15-matches. --- Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me. |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/30/2006 9:12:17 PM | message detail |
|
I know Tifa's probably overrated, but it would be funny if she ended up
legit later, like the Devil Division kind of did this past contest. ~*ST*~ --- PWNED BY RUFUS SHINRA in the Guru contest! Congrats! Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/30/2006 11:59:43 PM | message detail |
|
You just think that because it makes Peach look like a beast. =P Anywho, the Link : Zelda :: Cloud : Tifa analogy is just about as legit as the Link : Ganondorf :: Cloud : Vincent analogy, which is to say that it's crap. Yeah, Vincent had his own game...but there's no way Ganondorf beats him with 54% without it, if he beats him at all. If Tifa's anywhere near Vincent and Zelda's anywhere near Ganondorf (and they should be), Tifa v. Zelda is hardly a foregone conclusion. ...not that either of them are beating Snake or anything. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 12/1/2006 12:05:57 AM | message detail |
|
pss ssb fboys will push celda over solid --- Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 12/1/2006 12:28:46 AM | message detail |
|
...not that either of them are beating Snake or anything. Not in 2006, but 2007 will be different !! --- "A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 12/1/2006 5:13:12 AM | message detail |
|
What do you have Tifa getting on Samus? Samus – 46.61 Solid Snake – 43.71 Sonic – 39.34 Mega Man – 39.05 Crono – 38.73 Vincent Valentine – 37.70 Squall Leonhart – 37.07 Ganondorf – 35.75 Sora – 35.71 Auron – 35.24 Tifa Lockhart – 33.71 Zelda – 33.71 Yoshi – 33.06 Bowser – 32.97 Ryu (SF) – 32.77 Dante – 32.73 Luigi – 31.32 Kirby – 29.87 Riku – 29.62 Leon Kennedy – 29.38 Aeris Gainsborough – 29.08 Zero – 29.00 Yuna – 28.98 Rikku – 28.89 Sub-Zero – 28.45 Kratos (GoW) – 28.11 Master Chief – 27.91 Gordon Freeman – 25.76 Tidus – 25.30 Alucard – 25.09 Kairi – 24.18 Axel – 23.53 Claire Redfield – 23.17 Jill Valentine – 22.89 Princess Peach – 22.89 Prince of Persia – 22.88 Ryu Hayabusa – 22.78 Chun-Li – 22.70 KOS-MOS – 22.30 Phoenix Wright – 21.54 Lara Croft – 20.18 Captain Falcon – 20.02 Ada Wong – 18.85 Marle – 17.58 Tingle – 17.42 Sheena Fujibayashi – 17.38 The Boss – 17.16 Terra Branford – 17.10 Nidoran F – 16.92 Joanna Dark – 16.50 Ivy Valentine – 16.06 Soma Cruz – 15.60 Amy Rose – 15.42 CATS – 15.15 Lenneth – 14.45 Kasumi – 14.19 Sarah Kerrigan – 14.13 Celes Chere- 13.38 Cortana – 13.12 Roll – 12.00 Carmen Sandiego – 9.38 Jade – 9.09 Alyx Vance – 9.06 Princess Daisy – 7.74 ***These are clearly not the most linear stats ever created, I basically used a constant Luigi to start off with the stats, and everything seems to work decently. Crono drops a tad, Sonic increases a tad, MM increases ever so slightly, and Snake boosts like crazy. Snake that high feels so wrong, but 55ing Sonic and MM is no joke, I feel like if I drop him any lower, it messes up things. I could potentially buy an overperformance on Sonic, since it makes the most sense, but I didn’t factor it into my stats, it’ll just be in the back of my head for the next contest (granted with Wii/PS3 out, even if we had perfect stats this year, there’s gonna be a huge chance of change next year). I set Zelda 2K6 = Zelda 2K5, Tifa 2K6 = Zelda 2K5, and used Dante 2K5 = Dante 2K6 to extrapolate Yoshi (even though I think Dante boosted). I also just assumed Squall/Snake went legit, and adjusted Tidus through 2K6 Kirby. Terra 2K6 = Terra 2K5, and Joanna 2K6 = Joanna 2K5. If it wasn’t obvious, I kept the BR crew at their numbers from last year. Not taken into account: Gordon’s probable non-linearity, which more than likely overrated both himself and PW in the stats, possible Ryu non-linearity as well. --- Portugal. The Man Rufus Shinra 777 violated me... he violated me all night long. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 12/1/2006 7:38:36 AM | message detail |
|
Daisy > Cortana Roll > Lenneth Daisy > Roll Round 1 upsets: Tidus > Kratos Round 2 upsets: Auron > Dante Round 3 upsets: Crono > Zelda Round 4 upsets: none Round 5 upsets: none Round 6 upsets: none Okay, so it's not a serious bracket. It would be interesting to make a seeded bracket based on the pure x-stats, don't you think? --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| therealmnm | Posted 12/1/2006 10:33:07 AM | message detail |
|
Damn stats! I'm going back to my days of 2k2/2k3 of just going by who I
think is more popular on GameFAQs at that very moment! Throw in some
knowledge gained since then of course! But seriously... I don't even
care about stats anymore. And with all of these adjustments that people
feel need to be made, or characters they feel should have boosted, and
all the other stuff added to the contest.... I'm taking it back to the
basics. We already know how strong the contest regs are, and since we
have to anticipate if a character will boost, drop, or remain constant
ourselves every year, the stats have pretty much become unnecessary. We
only seem to use the actual stats to argue with each other using pure
numbers anyways... :-P --- Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX |
| Haste_2 | Posted 12/1/2006 11:02:10 AM | message detail |
|
I'm sure you can trust most of the matches except ones involving Samus
or Solid Snake. It's just ridiculous how BOTH of the finalists have
acted very suspicious. --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| therealmnm | Posted 12/1/2006 11:30:09 AM | message detail |
|
I'm sure you can trust most of the matches except ones involving
Samus or Solid Snake. It's just ridiculous how BOTH of the finalists
have acted very suspicious. Well... seeing how 2006 x-stats have to be BASED on those two, it leaves a lot of potential adjusting. And then when you have to take in the effects of the next-gen consoles, as well as any other factors one might find... I don't think all of the adjusting is unnecessary... at leats on my end. --- Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX |
| Haste_2 | Posted 12/1/2006 12:03:10 PM | message detail |
|
Yes, of course it leaves a lot of adjusting. But, would you really want
to throw all data out the window? I mean, certainly it would be better
than judge Yoshi based on matches against Riku and Dante than against
Snake? --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| therealmnm | Posted 12/1/2006 1:23:03 PM | message detail |
|
I'm not saying throw the data out! I'm
just saying I see no reason to personally compile data this time
around. I already know the strength area of contest regs. The debated
matches usually come down to intangibles (games out, voter shifts,
etc.). And we have 2 new next-gen systems that ought to do some shaking
up by next summer, so we have even more variables to consider.
I'm basically just saying that I myself don't plan on compiling stats
or trying to determing who's stats are more "accurate" or not. Maybe
I'm just argued out after this contest. :-/ --- Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX |
| Haste_2 | Posted 12/1/2006 3:37:25 PM | message detail |
|
I'll worry far more about intangibles when the time comes next contest... --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| creativename | Posted 12/1/2006 8:25:31 PM | message detail |
|
It's all about the next gen. Every year has significant differences
than the year before, but we can all agree that next year will be even
more different than normal, due to next gen consoles and games. The
things we've seen before should have less relevance than usual. This is
pretty easy to foresee, whereas the actual form the change take will
undoubtedly have a few big surprises in store. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Haste_2 | Posted 12/1/2006 10:24:59 PM | message detail |
|
I'd hate to see characters like Mega Man and Ryu fall off the map...
but, when I think about it, will the next-gen really change the
visitors that much? I mean, it doesn't seem like to me that people who
buy a Wii or PS3 will suddenly come to the site for the first time, and
I don't think a new system would mean a lot of new gamers, let alone a
lot of new gamers that would suddenly come to GameFAQs. Nah, of course
it will make a massive difference... I'm never right. --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 12/2/2006 4:29:00 AM | message detail |
|
The stats ALWAYS prove useful each year, at least in some form.
Sometimes they utterly ruin a contest's predictability (see Summer
2004, though it tried hard enough on its own to do that), sometimes
they end up falling on their face multiple times throughout a contest
(see every contest other than Summer 2004). But there's always a
Terra/Kerrigan style match that you'd see half the board get wrong if
it weren't for the X-Stats. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 12/2/2006 11:39:22 AM | message detail |
|
sometimes they end up falling on their face multiple times throughout a contest (see every contest other than Summer 2004) Hey, don't forget that the stats originally gained fame when CN used them to dominate the Oracle in 2k3. --- 11/18/06...the day I was owned by Rufus Shinra in the Guru Contest. |
| Osfan | Posted 12/2/2006 1:47:09 PM | message detail |
|
I have an interesting propostition to the dead discussion :-D who do
you take in the sprite round Snake or Tifa? Obviously we wont consider
the impact brawl or mgs4 could have but if that had happened this year
could the picture be enough. I guess this boils down to how bad is
Snake able to SFF a good 7 character and whether or not Zero Suit could
have beaten Snake... --- Lets just say Rufus Shinra did it with his magic to win the 2006 guru contest... |
| Lucid Faia | Posted 12/2/2006 9:37:12 PM | message detail |
|
My old high school's football team just won the Ohio Division I state
championship. USC loses to UCLA. And I found a Rick Wakeman CD that
I've been searching for ages now. Today was a good day. Journey on, through ages gone, to the Center of the Earth. Past rocks of quartz and granite, which gave mother nature birth. Burial ground of ancient man, his life no more is seen. A journey through his time unknown, I wonder where he's been. --- The Ohio State Buckeyes Record: 12-0. Rank: #1. Next: The National Championship! |
| ShadowOwns | Posted 12/2/2006 11:15:18 PM | message detail |
|
Another contest come and gone. I find it a delight that these contests
make the days of school go by way faster than normal. This time around
however, i hope to keep my gfaqs account active over the off season.
The past 4 contests I've completely forgot about gamefaqs and missed
out on over 1000+ karma by now. Anyway, good overall contest with some
nice surprises along the way. Hope its just as good next year :) --- NHL, get new officials please. Lovin Oil Country. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 12/3/2006 1:29:24 AM | message detail |
|
I'll take Solid Snake over Tifa, sprite round or no. --- Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me. |
| WiggumFan267 | Posted 12/3/2006 1:46:49 AM | message detail |
|
Nidoran F – 16.92 Joanna Dark – 16.50 lol. --- Wigs (Now w/ 92% Owned by Rufus!): ~Helping Bald People Since 1987~ Happily Married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 2005 |
| zwong1 | Posted 12/3/2006 1:55:22 AM | message detail |
|
I'll take Solid Snake over Tifa, sprite round or no. I don't know why but i will not take Tifa over any of the noble nine. --- I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest. |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/3/2006 9:41:09 PM | message detail |
|
I wouldn't either. That match with Samus reeks of WTF. ~*ST*~ --- PWNED BY RUFUS SHINRA in the Guru contest! Congrats! Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI |
| ZFS | Posted 12/4/2006 11:50:25 AM | message detail |
|
I'll take Solid Snake over Tifa, sprite round or no. Ditto. --- "A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 12/4/2006 11:57:28 AM | message detail |
|
I'm not exactly scared of Tifa in the sprite round after seeing that...thing
she got stuck with against Peach. A more interesting matchup is Samus
with a ZSS picture against...well, ANY elite or near-elite if the
impact it supposedly had is reproducable. Though I'm wondering if it wasn't just a fluke in more ways than one -- Samus getting blown away by the lower half of the Noble Nine on the basis of a picture (that looked good, by the by) just doesn't square up. Though I suppose results don't lie... --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| ZFS | Posted 12/4/2006 11:58:34 AM | message detail |
|
Cowgirl Tifa v. Solid ****. That has epic written all over it. --- "A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." |
| Haste_2 | Posted 12/4/2006 8:43:39 PM | message detail |
|
Out of boredom, let's go through history and see the 4-pack-of-death or whatever it's called for each contest... 2K2: No official one, but either Alucard/Tails/Duke/Iori, or Bomberman/Kane/Jill/Kirby...I would pick the latter. 2K3: Alucard/Bomberman/Kirby/Ramza Sp2K4: Perfect Dark/SotN vs. Goldeneye/PDS. 2K4: Don't remember...either Frog/LS/MC/Crash or Sora/HK-47/Ryu H/Jill. Sp2K5: Can't remember here, either... was it Albedo/M.Bison/Ridley/Diablo, or was it Robotnik/Sin/Kuja/Master Hand? SC2K5: Dante/Terra/Kerrigan/Vincent...that was it, wasn't it? Heh. Sp2K6: Castlevania/Halo vs. KH/Harvest Moon SC2K6: Kirby/PoP vs. Luigi/Zero --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| greatone10 | Posted 12/4/2006 9:01:52 PM | message detail |
|
Can't remember here, either... was it Albedo/M.Bison/Ridley/Diablo, or was it Robotnik/Sin/Kuja/Master Hand? The former 4 pack was hyped up immensly during the contest (as was Kefka's presence on the other side); the latter seemed to surprise everyone. --- RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005 Rufus Shinra made me look like Jade in the Guru contest. Wario/Monkey Island for 2K7! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 12/4/2006 11:10:09 PM | message detail |
|
Today's poll, to me, puts to rest just how big SSBB was at E3. If Solid Snake didn't make you question it enough yet. --- Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me. |
