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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 434

MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/26/2006 9:37:23 PM | message detail
No, it's not the helping... it's the helping and giggling. Navi was annoying for "Hey! Listen!" Midna was annoying for *giggle*. Although like I said, it's only half the game. At a pivotal point she grew on me. Not one of my favorites or anything, but she ends up not bad.

Worst character in the game is definitely Talo.
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Rufus Shinra 18 may be able to predict contests well, but can he see why kids love Cinnamon Toast Crunch?
Yes. Yes he can.
Aprosenf | Posted 11/26/2006 9:44:22 PM | message detail
So, how about that poll of the day?
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Like Cloud, I got pwned by Rufus Shinra
Big Bob | Posted 11/26/2006 9:52:09 PM | message detail
XD @ the poll being an hour old and only having 17 votes.
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The following people caused me to lose to Rufus Shinra in the Guru contest: Yoshi, Snake, Vincent, KOS-MOS, Sub-Zero, Gordon Freeman...
Big Bob | Posted 11/26/2006 9:52:47 PM | message detail
Dammit, you ruined it.
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The following people caused me to lose to Rufus Shinra in the Guru contest: Yoshi, Snake, Vincent, KOS-MOS, Sub-Zero, Gordon Freeman...
voltch | Posted 11/27/2006 12:34:26 PM | message detail
so which game are gurus supposed to nominate if we get another game contest?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Haste_2 | Posted 11/27/2006 1:04:16 PM | message detail
Monkey Island...I forgot which one, though.

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Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/27/2006 1:11:20 PM | message detail
calling her Navi 2.0 is like calling Tidus a good character.

Then Midna is Navi 2.0.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 8: The Boss - W, 28-9
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/27/2006 2:06:18 PM | message detail
The Secret of Monkey Island.

Say, do we have any hard sales figures for the first week of Wii/TP? *eyes HM*

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/27/2006 6:30:58 PM | message detail
I say we get Mewtwo in the next contest just:

-So we can see how strong a pokemon can really be.
-So he can have this on the back of his page >_>
http://d3.ffshrine.org/soundtracks/Pokemon%20Pocket%20Monsters%20Sound%20Anime%20Collection/18._a_formidable_enemy_appears.mp3
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"I have no fear of losing my life - if I have to save a koala or a crocodile or a kangaroo or a snake, mate, I will save it. " -Steve Irwin
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/27/2006 9:06:22 PM | message detail
Midna is Navi 2.0.

~*ST*~
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PWNED BY RUFUS SHINRA in the Guru contest! Congrats!
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI
creativename | Posted 11/27/2006 9:10:30 PM | message detail
Mii Guest C > Jay Solano
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
creativename | Posted 11/27/2006 10:10:25 PM | message detail
I put up the standings:
http://gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/45

And updated the match tables to include the Battle Royal

Also put up an Excel file that should hopefully make it easy for people to make their own x-stats:
http://gamefaqscontests.com/excel/EZ_x-stats.xls

It's just this contest's x-stats, but should be able to be adapted pretty easily to 32-character fields and such.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/28/2006 5:27:13 AM | message detail
Adjusting Tifa below Zelda? Psh.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 9: Phoenix Wright (6-2)
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/28/2006 9:42:02 AM | message detail
Say, do we have any hard sales figures for the first week of Wii/TP? *eyes HM*

http://wii.ign.com/articles/747/747728p1.html

600K for the Wii, 454K for TP. The Wii had limited supply as well. I believe that the GCN sold 300K the first week, despite shipping far more than that, for comparison.
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11/18/06...the day I was owned by Rufus Shinra in the Guru Contest.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/28/2006 9:56:10 AM | message detail
Adjusting Tifa below Zelda? Psh.

Justice !!

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"The history of light and shadow will be written in blood!"
H__RR____H | Posted 11/28/2006 10:10:06 AM | message detail
It's still above Vincent though -- that's the injustice, if anything.

Well, not for me, but for the stats!
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/28/2006 10:11:34 AM | message detail
Well, that's what happens when Samus overperforms on Solid Snake!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 9: Phoenix Wright (6-2)
H__RR____H | Posted 11/28/2006 10:17:48 AM | message detail
Heh...boosting Solid Snake at all would make Bowser > Yoshi seem even more unreasonable on all accounts. I'm not disagreeing with you, but man, that'd be wild to see nowadays.

Speaking of which, would anybody take Bowser over Yoshi in a rematch?
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/28/2006 10:19:14 AM | message detail
Boosting Snake based on Samus doesn't affect Bowser/Yoshi since it brings up the entire male division.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 9: Phoenix Wright (6-2)
H__RR____H | Posted 11/28/2006 10:20:37 AM | message detail
That's right, nevermind -- I just had in mind that Solid/Yoshi was head-to-head while Bowser wasn't this year.

Still though, yeah, Bowser/Yoshi, who you got?
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/28/2006 10:22:36 AM | message detail
Bowser has looked better than Yoshi every year...except this year. Picking Yoshi to win now seems weird. Not to mention, his high placement in the stats seems weird, too. I sure wouldn't pick him over Squall.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 9: Phoenix Wright (6-2)
H__RR____H | Posted 11/28/2006 10:40:59 AM | message detail
I agree that's weird, though for what it's worth we know Bowser was over-rated last year and Yoshi was behind SFF again. We also know that Yoshi somehow managed to improve in the Mario-favorite poll and Bowser did worse from earlier this spring, Then throw in that stats currently say Yoshi gets 55.99% on Bowser...

...I mean, yeah, it's weird, considering Bowser got ~56% on Yoshi before and Bowser did MUCH better against Solid Snake last year than Yoshi this year (though Solid 2k6 > 2k5 and Solid's picture wasn't nearly so one-sided), and it's still possible Yoshi over-performed on Solid Snake for the same reason Samus did (if she did)...but it looks much more possible to see Yoshi > Bowser now than ever since 2k3.

With enough favorable circumstances, Bowser could win, but it wouldn't be anything like 2k3 was.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Haste_2 | Posted 11/28/2006 11:03:46 AM | message detail
I figure if Luigi is so close to Bowser this year (predicted 52.5/47.5 match, it shouldn't be a complete shock if Yoshi was ahead of Bowser. Just looking at all of Bowser's matches the past two years... Bowser's a confusing one, yes he is. Did he fluke out that much last year, or did he just have an amazing year in 2K5?

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/28/2006 11:04:25 AM | message detail
If he fluked in 2005, he fluked every match.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 9: Phoenix Wright (6-2)
Haste_2 | Posted 11/28/2006 11:08:29 AM | message detail
Actually, Bowser vs. Ocelot and Bowser vs. Kirby fit well in terms of this year... come to think of it, even Bowser vs. Chun Li fits. Just Ryu and Snake don't make much sense by themselves, and you can already explain one of those.

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wavedash101 | Posted 11/28/2006 11:36:14 AM | message detail
Well Yoshi now has Yoshi's Story 2...but Bowser will have Super Paper Mario and SMG(better if he makes an appearance, I think he will)...

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
red sox 777 | Posted 11/28/2006 11:54:53 AM | message detail
I don't see Bowser and Yoshi's fanbases being sufficiently different for Yoshi to overcome a 56/44 loss. And what has Yoshi done outside that match against sprite Snake to indicate he can beat Bowser?
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I got owned by Rufus Shinra in the Guru Contest. So, time to nominate President Rufus Shinra............er, Wario?
wavedash101 | Posted 11/28/2006 11:56:27 AM | message detail
Ummm barely beating Dante?

>_>
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Big Bob | Posted 11/28/2006 12:32:23 PM | message detail
Man, if Luigi, Yoshi, and Bowser were in a fourpack next year that would be evil of CJay.

And throw in Knuckles too.
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The following people caused me to lose to Rufus Shinra in the Guru contest: Yoshi, Snake, Vincent, KOS-MOS, Sub-Zero, Gordon Freeman...
Haste_2 | Posted 11/28/2006 12:42:01 PM | message detail
Dante's x-stat based off Hayabusa 2K5: 34.12%
Yoshi based off the above Dante: 34.50%
Bowser's x-stat based off 2K5 Crono (and that's being generous): 33.84%

Yep, that's the truth. We wouldn't know if Hayabusa dropped, or if Dante overperformed a bit on Hayabusa, or whatever. The math gives the Yoshi > Bowser possibility, though.

Plus... what is Bowser's predicted percentage against Luigi? 52.49%. If Bowser and Luigi are so close together, and I don't see how Yoshi must be right inbetween them (though I think odds are that it IS the case). Of course, I wouldn't say it's impossible for Yoshi to be weaker than Luigi, either...

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/28/2006 12:46:44 PM | message detail
If he fluked in 2005, he fluked every match.

Or just Snake & Ryu. And that's more their faults than anything Bowser did.

I'd definitely consider Yoshi > Bowser though. In good ol' EC stats: Yoshi – 33.06
Bowser – 32.97, and that's with me feeling I may have underrated Yoshi a tad (I adjusted through Dante 2K5, even though I think Dante's stronger this year, although Yoshi/Snake rSFF is still possible, so it could really go either way). Seeing that Yoshi is the clear favorite over Bowser among the Mario fanbase as terms as favorites go, and I don't see how I can't pick Yoshi in that match. I wouldn't say Bowser has no shot, but I would take it and not look back.


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Portugal. The Man
Rufus Shinra 777 violated me... he violated me all night long.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/28/2006 11:06:47 PM | message detail
Nice work, CN.

~*ST*~
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PWNED BY RUFUS SHINRA in the Guru contest! Congrats!
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI
therealmnm | Posted 11/29/2006 1:23:15 PM | message detail
Bowser had nothing to prove this year, so he took this contest off. But he would never let some chump like YOSHI actually beat him! Bowser will ALWAYS best Luigi and Yoshi! He just needs something to prove!
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/29/2006 1:37:26 PM | message detail
The match with Kirby was a bit of a fluke, too, even if it was on Kirby's part.
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"They said you were dead." - Raiden
"No, not me. There are still too many things I need to do." - Solid Snake
Osfan | Posted 11/29/2006 2:03:08 PM | message detail
Havent been here in a while been playing the wii... ;-) anyway yeah Bowser would thrash Yoshi for no other reason then he's Bowser, ;-) also I havent played too much TP but Midna is pretty high on my charts for annoying characters... Navi 2.0 might be giving here too mcuh credit your forced to talk to Midna....
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Lets just say Rufus Shinra did it with his magic to win the 2006 guru contest...
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/29/2006 8:47:52 PM | message detail
creative's 44% seemed a little harsh, so in my adjusted stats for this year I only bumped Tifa down to a 44.72%. Of course, this changed the values for the 6 girls under her accordingly. The only other adjustment I made was to our friend Jay Solano... (For a good time, try pitting adjusted Solano against his Raw self from this year.)

And with that, the 2006 x-stats are complete!

http://thengamer.com/xstats

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thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Still smarting from the beatdown Rufus applied in the Guru Contest!
HaRRicH | Posted 11/29/2006 8:54:43 PM | message detail
Jay Solano (2006c raw) VS Jay Solano (2006c)

Jay Solano has a strength of 58.49.
Jay Solano has a strength of 2.76.

Jay Solano wins with 97.64% of the vote!
A win of 3,499 with 3,672 total votes cast.
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Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/29/2006 8:56:31 PM | message detail
Jay Solano (2006c) VS Tanner (2004c raw)

Jay Solano has a strength of 2.76.
Tanner has a strength of 3.39.

Tanner wins with 59.29% of the vote!
A win of 8,954 with 48,183 total votes cast.
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Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/29/2006 10:06:43 PM | message detail
Hm, interesting Poll of the Day today. It's good to see confirmation that Soma rSFF'd Snake.
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11/18/06...the day I was owned by Rufus Shinra in the Guru Contest.
Big Bob | Posted 11/29/2006 10:20:58 PM | message detail
I just find something wrong with Zelda and Tifa being above Sonic this year. Tifa may have had Kingdom Hearts II and Advent Children, but Sonic beat her soundly last year, and it's plain as day that Sonic boosted himself. I'd expect her to do better, but actually beat him? No way.

As for Zelda, has she ever been stronger than Ganon? She's above him last year, but they're right next to each other. And Sonic's definitely stronger than Ganon, so I wouldn't take her over Sonic anyway.

As ridiculous as it sounds, I think Snake's boost may have been nullified when he found Samus, a Nintendo character. A lot of hype for him comes from SSBB, and considering Samus already has that fanbase, it's not that much of a surprise.
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The following people caused me to lose to Rufus Shinra in the Guru contest: Yoshi, Snake, Vincent, KOS-MOS, Sub-Zero, Gordon Freeman...
HaRRicH | Posted 11/29/2006 11:26:06 PM | message detail
I don't mind Zelda being above Ganon at all, but I felt like Zelda would do better against Samus than she should from the very beginning. Now, there's no doubt Zelda has very legit strength, but I don't think her legit strength is as high as what she showed against Samus either.
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Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me.
Haste_2 | Posted 11/30/2006 9:29:37 AM | message detail
You know... if Snake underperformed on Samus, then obviously he would do the same against Yoshi! Guess what? He underperformed on Yoshi! Sure, blame the pic...your choice. And that also makes me wonder...IF that were the case, would that mean Snake did the same on Mega Man? Mega Man acts a lot like a Nintendo character, but he sure isn't one.

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Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth:
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/30/2006 9:57:02 AM | message detail
You know... if Snake underperformed on Samus, then obviously he would do the same against Yoshi! Guess what? He underperformed on Yoshi! Sure, blame the pic...your choice. And that also makes me wonder...IF that were the case, would that mean Snake did the same on Mega Man? Mega Man acts a lot like a Nintendo character, but he sure isn't one.

Don't forget, Sonic seemed to benefit from the Nintendo Boost in 2k5, and he did better than expected (SFF?) against Luigi. Adding to that, there was potential Konami SFF in Snake's match with Soma, and Playstation SFF in his match with Squall.

If you're going to say that Snake underperformed against Samus, you can't trust any of his performances. Not every match has to be SFF.
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11/18/06...the day I was owned by Rufus Shinra in the Guru Contest.
H__RR____H | Posted 11/30/2006 10:00:19 AM | message detail
I've had that same line of thought Haste...and, in my mind and maybe in my actual stats, I'm going to give Solid about 1% more credit against both Samus and Yoshi (essentially leaving Yoshi's four-pack the same in the stats, though every other male gets a lil' bit of a boost from it). I've also thought about the thing with Mega Man...and, yes, Link SFF'd Mega Man and Mega Man SFF'd Yoshi, and we know there's some overlap with Mega Man and Nintendo...but I don't think it's enough for people hyped about Solid Snake solely for SSBB to dominatingly support him over Mega Man (and, if so, no more than it works against any other character). VERY minimal, I feel, if at all.

I'm gonna have a lil' fun with this year's stats since they're gonna be practically shot next year anyway (LoZ:TP, FF12, Wii, PS3, Tifa's division, probably get lots of our snubs back, random variation, etc.), so I'm gonna experiment a little bit with adjustments. When I finally do them, I'm going to try to adjust each match's result by up to 0.3% depending on the bracket-favorite, board support and rally-capability, and anti-votes. It shouldn't end up making a big difference in the stats as far as characters who don't REALLY need adjusting go, but since many of us consider such things and the stats already factor in how it helped/hurt characters last time, I'm going to just take that out and help prepare myself a bit more for next year, heh. Maybe it'll help, who knows, though, again, next year is simply going to be shot anyway.....
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 11/30/2006 10:13:21 AM | message detail
A few Peach related stats that were brought up pre-contest.

Peach (2006c) VS Chun Li (2006c)

Peach has a strength of 27.85.
Chun Li has a strength of 27.61.

Peach wins with 50.43% of the vote!
A win of 1,028 with 119,317 total votes cast.

Wins against Chun-Li

Peach (2006c) VS Donkey Kong (2005c)

Peach has a strength of 27.85.
Donkey Kong has a strength of 30.38.

Donkey Kong wins with 54.16% of the vote!
A win of 9,069 with 108,894 total votes cast.

Gets nearly 46% on an overrated DK.

Peach (2006c) VS Rikku (2006c)

Peach has a strength of 27.85.
Rikku has a strength of 28.43.

Rikku wins with 51.02% of the vote!
A win of 2,497 with 122,377 total votes cast.

Almost level with Rikku too.

Thoughts?
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For every awesome RE supporting guy, there's always one ****ing FFVII guy to ruin it! I got SFFed by Rufus Shinra in the Guru contest!
H__RR____H | Posted 11/30/2006 10:17:07 AM | message detail
Strangely, I only disagree with the one about Rikku. DK-2k5 is over-rated in my mind, and Peach is too, so I don't mind that ratio so much...and, though her BEATING Chun-Li is up for debate, I can't see Peach falling to Lara Croft's level either -- she's at least close to Chun-Li.

No way I'll ever take Peach over Rikku though.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Haste_2 | Posted 11/30/2006 11:57:07 AM | message detail
I've already made a set of crazy x-stats (among many) adjusting Samus all the way down to 39.xx% on BL, while Snake is at 43.xx%... yeah, it assumes Zelda vs. Samus is actually accurate. The only problem is that it basically means Samus overperformed against Snake by 8%, and that Snake/Samus exposed Snake COMPLETELY down to his 2K5 level, which doesn't make sense. Everything else is good, though. :( I know! I'll just randomly adjust Samus up, and nothing else will go up with her! =P

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Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth:
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/30/2006 1:40:37 PM | message detail
I don't mess with BL, like, ever -- I just work with Link at 50% and try to estimate with characters from years before.

That said, methinks I'm going to have Samus in that area on this year's Link...and Mario too. I'm just debating whether there should be a noticable gap between them or not this year (Luigi/Yoshi/Peach all impressed in some fashion this year, and Bowser apparently was just over-rated last year). Still though, I'm not putting Solid over Samus in my stats -- whether he actually deserves it or not. I hate to admit hype is THAT important though obviously it was crucial for him to be as successful as he was this year. Also, though I know Sonic's increased since 2k4, Solid still fell considerably short on Samus's score against Sonic two years ago...

...yes, I know Mega Man beat Solid Snake with 57% two years ago too, but I'm being cautious with it, that's all. I'm gonna boost Solid some, just not above Samus.
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Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/30/2006 4:19:21 PM | message detail
Thoughts on Chunners/Peach? I want written apologies telling me how awesome I am after taking all that crap on Peach not being able to come close to Chunners, let alone beat her.

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Portugal. The Man
Rufus Shinra 777 violated me... he violated me all night long.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/30/2006 4:22:30 PM | message detail
You know that result requires Tifa being legit this year, right?
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Rufus Shinra: like a true Guru should, he owned me.