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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 433

Kaxon | Posted 11/17/2006 7:15:12 PM | message detail
Well I think you're crazy. Cloud is not getting more from Snake than from Sephiroth. CRAZY YOU'RE ALL CRAZY

He will, for the simple reason that Snake's votes are being split two ways instead of three. I doubt it will be enough to give him the win, but he should do respectably.
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....TCELES B HSUP
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2006 7:18:02 PM | message detail
The fact that it's only split 2 ways is mathematically irrelevant, that will benefit Link just as much as it benefits Cloud
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Tediz247 | Posted 11/17/2006 7:33:56 PM | message detail
HM will boycott them until they give MGS4 the 10 it will obviously deserve!!
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
Kaxon | Posted 11/17/2006 7:34:41 PM | message detail
Err, no. When Cloud is the clear favorite to get the votes that are going to Snake, removing him doesn't benefit Link just as much as it does Cloud.

To provide an example, compared to yesterday Cloud's gained 7.86% (approximately, since I'm not using final results), Snake has gained 2.87%, and Link has gained 2.05%. Your statement would imply that because Cloud's only gotten 61.5% of the vote that went to Sephiroth, he can't get more than 61.5% of the vote that went to Snake today. However, if you just look at the split between Link and Cloud, Cloud has gotten 79.3% of the former Sephiroth voters vs 20.7% for Link. So I agree, Cloud's not getting more than 79% of the votes Snake has today, but he can certainly get more than 61%.

At the moment, Cloud needs 73.3% of the Snake voters to go his way... a longshot, but it wouldn't be more than he's gotten from Sephiroth today.
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....TCELES B HSUP
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/17/2006 7:35:45 PM | message detail
GameSpot can burn.


Everyone else is a winner, especially IGN with its great intorduction of "Ocarina, your time is up." =p


Oh, and LOL CLOUD. I expect to come back here after my mind needs its mental break from hours of Twilight Princess and see the final result being Link's domination over Cloud. Until, say, Sunday, I'll see you folks later.


GO LINK!

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 7:36:56 PM | message detail
See? If Aitch Emm's not going to be around to vote for Link, who will?!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2006 7:42:15 PM | message detail
, Cloud has gotten 79.3% of the former Sephiroth voters vs 20.7% for Link.

FUZZY MATH
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 7:42:59 PM | message detail
Touch Fuzzy Get Dizzy
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2006 7:43:13 PM | message detail
And considering that 20% of Snake's votes were already taken from Mario and Samus... I don't see how you could be so optimistic...
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
trannyscience | Posted 11/17/2006 7:43:40 PM | message detail
Aitch Emm coming home to a Cloud victory would be just amazing. I would pay money to see that.
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RUFUS SHINRA 777 > ME
...let's just say his Guru skills are better than his username.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2006 7:54:06 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2006 7:54:29 PM | message detail
Alright, look at it this way.

Even if you gave ALL of the votes that Snake is getting back from Seph back to Cloud, we get, what, Cloud with 38.7% or so. Nice.

But in doing so, you should also give all the votes that Snake got from Samus and Mario back to Link.

Making it

38.7%
48.2%
13.1%


Now, even if we use your example of Cloud getting almost 80% of Sephiroth's votes compared to Link, that still wouldn't be enough to save him. Since Link needs a piddly 15% of Snake's votes to beat Cloud.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 7:57:55 PM | message detail
...who are you arguing with?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2006 7:58:20 PM | message detail
Anyone who is deluded themself into thinking Cloud has a chance
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 7:58:44 PM | message detail
Which means we'll have Link winning in a closer match than he has had in a long while.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2006 8:00:08 PM | message detail
No. That would be if Cloud somehow manages to miraculously benefit from Snake's elimination as much as Sephiroth's, then he would lose in a close match.

You're crazy to even believe that's going to happen.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 8:04:47 PM | message detail
No. That's going to happen. Cloud will gain noticably more from Snake than Link does. He'll push 66% of Snake's votes since:

A, Sephiroth's votes went 3 ways, not 2.

and

B, The fact that so many of Seph's votes went to Snake shows a good number of the Snake votes are going to Cloud.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
Janus5000 | Posted 11/17/2006 8:05:18 PM | message detail
You know, for all Cloud benefitted from Sephy kicking it, Seph's never shown signs of being SFFed by Cloud... well, maybe in 2k4, but not by much.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 8:06:41 PM | message detail
I believe Cloud will win because

-HM thinks Link will win
-I think Cloud would SFF Snake more than Sephy
-HM thinks Link will win

Airtight logic, if I do say so myself
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 8:07:01 PM | message detail
Yeah, Seph was probably as hurt in the BR by Snake's presence as he was by Cloud's... ... ...
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
Draco1214 | Posted 11/17/2006 8:07:05 PM | message detail
Snake gained a bit less than 3% form Sephiroth being booted. To compare, Link gained about 2%.
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Currently Playing: Xenosaga Episode 3, Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003
trannyscience | Posted 11/17/2006 8:07:42 PM | message detail
I think the HM argument is the best (only?) one we have at this point. don't prove us wrong, God!
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RUFUS SHINRA 777 > ME
...let's just say his Guru skills are better than his username.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 8:08:20 PM | message detail
Well, whenever you sandwhich something inbetween instances of "HM says the opposite" you usually do have airtight logic. Unfortunately Cloud would have to get an unseemly % of Snake fans to be on his side.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/17/2006 8:09:05 PM | message detail
From trannyscience
Aitch Emm coming home to a Cloud victory would be just amazing. I would pay money to see that.
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RUFUS SHINRA 777 > ME
...let's just say his Guru skills are better than his username.


Then do it. Go bribe people to vote Cloud. >_>
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
BDawg | Posted 11/17/2006 8:10:07 PM | message detail
The only reason I would want Link to lose is so he'd be unleashed on a regular bracket next year. MAKE IT HAPPEN CJAY!
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Should I start running now?
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 8:10:33 PM | message detail
I'd willingly chip in, if I thought it'd do any good.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
trannyscience | Posted 11/17/2006 8:10:53 PM | message detail
you know.. I have an overwhelming desire to go make a "vote Cloud!" on the TP board right now.
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RUFUS SHINRA 777 > ME
...let's just say his Guru skills are better than his username.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 8:11:21 PM | message detail
Do it!
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 8:12:12 PM | message detail
I think every Cloud fan on this board is currently here posting in this topic
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 8:13:40 PM | message detail
Now, now. Don't lump me in with you Cloud fans. He'd middling, to me (not that Link isn't). It's just that in a contest, I root for the underdog. I like Mario more but always vote Crono over him, for example.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 8:14:58 PM | message detail
Cloud fan, LINK MUST LOSE advocate, same difference
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/17/2006 8:15:16 PM | message detail
Percentage of Seph's votes gained:

Cloud .. | Link . . | Snake .
70.95% | 11.41% | 17.64%

B, The fact that so many of Seph's votes went to Snake shows a good number of the Snake votes are going to Cloud.

Snake benefited more from Mario (18.49%) and Samus (21.19%) going out than he did Sephiroth going out. Shouldn't that show that a good number of Snake votes should swing Link's way? Not a good sign when Cloud needs 73% of Snake's votes - more than he got from Sephiroth.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 8:15:21 PM | message detail
Well, I root for the underdog when the two are close in coolness, anyway.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
Janus5000 | Posted 11/17/2006 8:16:03 PM | message detail
*rallies under LML banner*
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Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Rufus Shinra 18 decides everything.
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/17/2006 8:16:50 PM | message detail
Meh, I've never seen the appeal in cloud. Even his design isn't remotely badass since he looks to be wearing a purple jump suit outside battles and cinematic sequences. There are far better characters in ffvii and yet the fanbase seems to still like cloud best... too bad he doesn't suffer from Tidus syndrome.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 8:18:10 PM | message detail
Tidus is the exception, not the rule. It takes skill to be the main character of a game and yet not be the most popular one.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/17/2006 8:18:33 PM | message detail
*dons HM's cap*

WOO LINK GO LINK WHOOP THAT CLOUD!
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Moltar Status: 12th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Battle Royale Day 4 - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Snake (160/216)
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/17/2006 8:18:49 PM | message detail
That says more about how awesome Yuna is than how crappy Tidus is.
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 8:19:30 PM | message detail
And the undisputed one, no less. At least Vaan will have an excuse when he inevitably gets shamed by one or two of his FFXII counterparts (blah blah FFVI syndrome blah blah). Tidus is just that unlikeable to the average gamer.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 11/17/2006 8:21:52 PM | message detail
Well, Auron does own the rest of the FFX cast...<_<
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Currently Playing: Xenosaga Eps. 3, Final Fantasy XII, King of Fighters 2002/2003
Owned by Rufus Shinra 18 in the Guru contest.
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/17/2006 8:23:39 PM | message detail
I think part of it might be that even though Tidus was the main character, it wasn't really his story being told if that makes any sense. He never really took the role of leader of the group in the same way all the popular ff heroes did.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
Draco1214 | Posted 11/17/2006 8:24:08 PM | message detail
Out of curiosity, who do you guys think would be the strongest FF12 character? I'm hoping it's Balthier or Basch myself.
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Currently Playing: Xenosaga Eps. 3, Final Fantasy XII, King of Fighters 2002/2003
Owned by Rufus Shinra 18 in the Guru contest.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 8:25:05 PM | message detail
And apparently a guru winner has been decided, eh? Not even Cloud winning it can change that? *goes to look*
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If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 8:26:18 PM | message detail
Nope, not even Cloud winning changes the Guru winner. It doesn't hurt that no Guru had Cloud winning...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/17/2006 8:27:23 PM | message detail
From Draco1214
Well, Auron does own the rest of the FFX cast...<_<
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Currently Playing: Xenosaga Eps. 3, Final Fantasy XII, King of Fighters 2002/2003
Owned by Rufus Shinra 18 in the Guru contest.


Yuna is far superior. >=/
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/17/2006 8:28:02 PM | message detail
From Draco1214
Out of curiosity, who do you guys think would be the strongest FF12 character? I'm hoping it's Balthier or Basch myself.
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Currently Playing: Xenosaga Eps. 3, Final Fantasy XII, King of Fighters 2002/2003
Owned by Rufus Shinra 18 in the Guru contest.


Balthier or Ashe, and the latter isn't my fanboyism talking. >=/
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 8:28:06 PM | message detail
Doesn't change it even if the guy in second did take the chance and got it right. That's a lot like my second place finish in the first guru contest.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
Me, owned? Damn you Rufus Shinra, Guru Champion.
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/17/2006 8:28:24 PM | message detail
Are you serious KH?!?!?!? Nobody took that upset?

Wow, I'm actually shocked to hear that. I mean Phoenix can't sell 100k copies of his game Wright gets good support against gordan freeman... and yet nobody thought much of clouds chances?
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 8:30:10 PM | message detail
But that was against Gordon "I've never won a contest match in my life, not even against Tina friggin' Armstrong" Freeman.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
Me, owned? Damn you Rufus Shinra, Guru Champion.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 8:30:41 PM | message detail
Remember, conventional wisdom dictated TP would have been released for quite some time by now (thanks, HM!). I'm sure that's what kept everyone from taking it.

(well, everyone but me. my logic is foolproof! you'll all see...)
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.