GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 433
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/16/2006 8:55:03 PM | message detail |
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5 more minutes! Go Sephy!! *Creativename's websites* Everything you could ever imagine: http://www.GameFAQsContests.com http://www.sc2k5.com http://www.sc2k4.com Sortable Table for Every Contest Match: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19 *Extrapolated Standings* Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11 Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left): http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ *Solarshadow's Sites* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating) http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html *Old Stats topics* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note) 2003-2004 Off-Season: http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note) Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL. Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm *Match Pictures* All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones! http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php *Miscellaneous* Creativename's Page of Links: http://sc2k4.com/links.php UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language): http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language): http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches: http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists: http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251 HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 TRE's poll listing (every poll!): http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html Aprosenf's Poll Script: http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt GameFAQs' Top 100 Games (down for now, so here's a new link): http://transience.paragonsigma.com/top100.txt Manual Poll Updater: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 11/16/2006 8:55:23 PM | message detail |
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Zelda > Smaus! ~~~ The one. The only. Lady Ashe. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2006 8:55:35 PM | message detail |
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2 VOTES --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/16/2006 8:55:43 PM | message detail |
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OH MY SWEET GOD 2 VOTE DIFFERENCE. ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI |
| rpgapzx | Posted 11/16/2006 8:55:47 PM | message detail |
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BEST MATCH EVER! --- Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex. |
| shadow8021 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:55:48 PM | message detail |
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WHOAMG TWO VOTES!!!!! --- Character Battle Score: 164/208 Today's Vote: Link |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 11/16/2006 8:55:52 PM | message detail |
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PHOTO FREAKING FINISH@@@ ~~~ The one. The only. Lady Ashe. |
| Who Cares? | Posted 11/16/2006 8:55:56 PM | message detail |
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Down to the wire....AWESOME! :) --- *Go play Tales of the Abyss* |
| CountCrazy007 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:56:01 PM | message detail |
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ZOMGZOMGZOMG --- Board 8's Voice of Reason Since 2003 © Oklahoma Sooners 8-2 - Next Victim: Baylor |
| janembaman | Posted 11/16/2006 8:56:18 PM | message detail |
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2 Votes?! What the hell --- laff |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:56:19 PM | message detail |
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AUGH --- CB5 Points: 139/208, Current Oracle placement: 21/170 Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 11/17/2006 12:54:46 AM | message detail |
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sephipwned In other news I missed that entire match due to spending my free time writing an essay. Bah. --- Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others. |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 1:03:44 AM | message detail |
| I have this feeling that the Sephiroth voters will
support Cloud more than they have been. Sephiroth has had this tendancy
to come from far behind at the end of the match. Cloud's gonna go up
even more from here. If he takes it to 37% I say he's got a fair chance
at Link. Seph did contribute more to Snake today then Mario or Samus. Perhaps as much as both combined. There's a chance that's going to be the case for Cloud as well when Snake leaves. --- If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot. If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it. |
| Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/17/2006 1:05:46 AM | message detail |
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Freewebs Site Temporarily Frozen Bullcrap --- "I have no fear of losing my life - if I have to save a koala or a crocodile or a kangaroo or a snake, mate, I will save it. " -Steve Irwin |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/17/2006 1:07:37 AM | message detail |
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I would be really, really suprised if
Cloud even approached 37% here. He almost always goes down during the
day (and definitely with the after school vote) and then recovers some
later on. He'll probably end up around 34% or slightly above maybe. --- "I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!" |
| Kaxon | Posted 11/17/2006 1:12:42 AM | message detail |
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Let's not stretch things so much here. It was cheating that swung
most of those 50 votes my friend, there shouldn't be any doubt ;) But
Snake would've had about a 50/50 shot to win anyway. Hey, my theory is still that it was cheating, just not that it was the work of one person. =P But it was still nowhere near the level of Mario/Crono II, which was the most blatant cheating this contest has ever seen... and that includes Kefka/Vercetti. Okay, second most blatant... Starcraft vs SSBM was worse. --- ....TCELES B HSUP |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/17/2006 7:25:08 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, Starcraft HAS to be the most blatant. --- Diddy did it. Diddy did it. DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?! |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2006 7:53:58 AM | message detail |
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So basically, Cloud needs to take more votes from Snake than he did from Sephiroth to win. Yeah, that sounds doable. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 11/17/2006 7:55:29 AM | message detail |
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It's also a bit weird that Link can take 80% of Samus's votes but Cloud is going to struggle to take 2/3rds of Seph's. You shouldn't take things so literally like that... since Mario and Sephiroth actually did worse the next day, it's safe to say that there were factors at work. The vote totals dropping almost 20,000 between Day 1 and Day 2 was part of the reason of those oddities, I bet. At least the next day the changes were more expected, and same with today... --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| Haste_2 | Posted 11/17/2006 7:58:12 AM | message detail |
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Starcraft vs. Zelda: Wind Waker also had horrific cheating. I graphed
out the voting patterns it was actually more bumpy and abonormal than
SSBM/SC (aside from a short time span in SSBM/SC). --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2006 8:03:38 AM | message detail |
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Mario didn't do worse enough to be considered worse, just random variance. Cloud did a little better the day that Sephiroth did worse too. On day 3, Cloud and Seph were back to their day 1 performances. Day 2 was probably just a little random variance in voters between the 2 for some reason. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 11/17/2006 9:12:11 AM | message detail |
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Odd, Cloud is actually going up at the time when Link usually is. Looks like Sephiroth lended him his day vote. --- Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship Battle Royale Day 3: Sephiroth |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 11/17/2006 9:14:22 AM | message detail |
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The fact the Snake's victory (possibly) WASN'T legit makes it even
sweeter for me. I know it's twisted logic, but I LOVE watching
Sephiroth get screwed over, especially when Snake is the screwer. And meh, Snake could have done it anyway. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 11/17/2006 9:15:13 AM | message detail |
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And for all of the Snake stuffing talk, Sephiroth had a similar unusual
last update spike at the end of day 2. Consider it retribution. --- Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship Battle Royale Day 3: Sephiroth |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 9:20:04 AM | message detail |
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"Odd, Cloud is actually going up at the time when Link usually is. Looks like Sephiroth lended him his day vote." This is what I was talking about last night. Sephiroth voters are still going to vote in the same pattern, they're just going to vote for Cloud instead. That means he'll gain all day long. If he hits 37%, Link should be afraid. --- If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot. If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it. |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 11/17/2006 9:22:21 AM | message detail |
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Day 1 at 12:15 - 73249 Day 2 at 12:15 - 63290 Day 3 at 12:15 - 59828 Day 4 at 12:15 - 71933 Whoa, vote totals SPIKED again. --- "A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake "I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic |
| BDawg | Posted 11/17/2006 10:36:15 AM | message detail |
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I wonder who will be the highest ranking person with a perfect battle
royale. I'm not taking anything away from the leaders, clearly
surviving the unpredictable main bracket was enough of a feat. But
still getting this battle royale right is still an accomplishment
despite it's relatively puny points impact. Even more so if Cloud pulls
something freakish tomorrow. I don't know if you can even tell if
anybody on the top 50 looks like they might still have a perfect battle
royale. --- Should I start running now? |
| JaKyL25 | Posted 11/17/2006 10:42:05 AM | message detail |
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From the research I had to do to confirm my victory (assuming Link >
Cloud), I think the highest person with a perfect BR so far is
Lord_Yggdrasil. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. |
| JaKyL25 | Posted 11/17/2006 10:54:52 AM | message detail |
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Actually my recall failed me. It's HeroicMint. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. |
| Drakeryn | Posted 11/17/2006 10:58:02 AM | message detail |
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HeroicMint is Kaxon, right? --- Man will gain wings, and the sky will return to the world. |
| JaKyL25 | Posted 11/17/2006 10:59:45 AM | message detail |
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Beats me. I'm just going by names on the Leaderboard and TRE's daily Leaderboard Updates. I'd like to take this time to once again thank TRE for those. They're awesome! --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. |
| TRE Public Account | Posted 11/17/2006 12:01:06 PM | message detail |
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If he hits 37%, Link should be afraid. As odd as this may seem, the worse Cloud does the more worried I am about him beating Link. Cloud getting almost all of Sephiroth's votes was expected. Even if Snake is taking some of them right now, they'll probably end up going to Cloud tommorow. What worries me is how much of it Snake is taking. If Snake takes a lot that shows a strong connection between him and FF7 and suggests that a lot of his votes will go to Cloud. If Snake barely gets anything, Cloud is either being a black hole or the connection isn't as strong as some people may think. And the winner tommorow completley depends on how Snake's votes are redistributed. The more of Cloud's votes that go to Snake, to more worried I am that he may win. --- "Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..." "All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..." |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 11/17/2006 12:08:54 PM | message detail |
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That's what makes Snake being here instead of Sephiroth better (well,
one of the many reasons). We knew Cloud was going to absorb the vast
majority of Sephiroth's votes, but if Snake was eliminated yesterday,
Link could very well be over 50% today or at least very close, which
would make tomorrow's match all but over. At least the mystery of
Snake's vote distribution leaves Cloud a faint glimmer of hope. Speaking of distribution, anyone have the percentages for yesterday and today so far? --- "A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake "I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic |
| TRE Public Account | Posted 11/17/2006 12:11:05 PM | message detail |
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These?: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/43 http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=31813386 --- "Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..." "All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..." |
| transience | Posted 11/17/2006 12:12:17 PM | message detail |
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yeah, Heroic Mint is Kaxon's alt. one of the dozens. --- xyzzy |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 11/17/2006 1:52:33 PM | message detail |
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So...how low is Snake's prediction percentage? --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/17/2006 3:08:17 PM | message detail |
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For whatever reason, I just tallied up all the character that have only been in a contest once. 2002 Morrigan Aensland Strider Hiryu Servbot Simon Belmont Spyro the Dragon Little Mac Kyo Kusanagi Q*Bert Pitfall Harry Tina Armstrong PaRappa the Rapper Kazuya Mishima Chop Chop Master Onion Aya Brea Iori Yagami Abe Ulala Goemon Akira Yuki Gabe Logan Bub Kane Dirk the Daring Serious Sam Ms. Pac-man Mr. Driller 2003 Felix Wario Ramza Beoulve Isaac Kite Raiden Tom Nook Captain Olimar AiAi Mr. Resetti 2004 Viewtiful Joe HK-47 Jak Protoman Kain Sly Cooper JC Denton Earthworm Jim Tanner Villains M. Bison Dr. Wily Nemesis Ridley Ansem Lavos Vergil Dr. Robotnik Mithos Sin Mother Brain Ultros Sigma Albedo Andross Ramirez Master Hand Ghaleon Kuja Pyramid Head Giygas Officer Tenpenny 2005 Kratos Aurion Zidane Jin Kazama Geno Cecil Lloyd Irving King of all Cosmos Agent 47 Big Boss Carl Johnson Manny Calavera Yuri Hyuga 2006 Ada Wong Alyx Vance Amy Rose Axel Captain Falcon Carmen Sandiego Celes Cortana Daisy Ivy Valentine Jade Kairi Lenneth Marle Nidoran F Peach Phoenix Wright Prince of Persia Roll Sheena Soma Cruz Sub-Zero The Boss Tingle That's 104 characters. Didn't think it was that many. --- I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis |
| Kaxon | Posted 11/17/2006 3:55:30 PM | message detail |
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HeroicMint is Kaxon, right? Woah, I made the leaderboard? I'm not actually sure what I have the rest of the way, but I should have Snake going out today. yeah, Heroic Mint is Kaxon's alt. one of the dozens. True, but that's the only alt I made a bracket for. It would be pretty cool to finish in the top 10, although it's not a prize bracket, so JaKyL25 doesn't need to worry. --- Once I find the relic, it's going to be world domination time! ~Kaxon~ |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2006 4:00:58 PM | message detail |
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Hmm, after everything settled down, Snake actually ended up taking the
same % of votes from Sephiroth as he roughly did from Mario and Samus. I think that might actually be a bad thing for Cloud. If Snake benefitted about equally from Nintendo and Square, then why would the reverse be radically different? --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 4:18:46 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, my Crew writeup isn't nearly as pessimistic, but I did a quick
"statting" of what Cloud essentially needed for him to have a good shot
at Link in my eyes (Link's exactly where I pegged him), and he's about
a percent and a half under that. That doesn't seem so insurmountable,
except we're talking about random variation from day-to-day, not
year-to-year, and in a three-way poll where it's a lot harder to change
your percentage (as radically different as Snake and Sephy's voting
trends are, look at how little the percentage changed throughout their
match). Therefore, I conclude that the best scenario for Cloud...is
that the voters aren't robots. LOL --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 11/17/2006 4:20:18 PM | message detail |
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Cloud's best case scenario is that people get sick of Link dominating and vote Cloud for a change of pace. So yeah, he's doomed. --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory. |
| E_Gadd | Posted 11/17/2006 4:31:02 PM | message detail |
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Snake finally under 20%... --- Gaddswell The meaning of 'E' is up to you. |
| JaKyL25 | Posted 11/17/2006 4:33:23 PM | message detail |
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True, but that's the only alt I made a bracket for. It would be
pretty cool to finish in the top 10, although it's not a prize bracket,
so JaKyL25 doesn't need to worry. Oh, I'm not worried. If Link beats Cloud tomorrow, I win the contest, no one (by my math and research) can catch me. I was GLAD to deduce that HeroicMint was the highest person on the leaderboard with a perfect Battle Royale. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2006 5:07:29 PM | message detail |
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2004: Link wins with 51.82% 2005: Link wins with 52.44% WE SHALL SEE A PATTERN 2006: Link wins with 53.06% 2007: Link wins with 53.68% --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Kaxon | Posted 11/17/2006 6:05:41 PM | message detail |
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Oh, I'm not worried. If Link beats Cloud tomorrow, I win the contest, no one (by my math and research) can catch me. I was GLAD to deduce that HeroicMint was the highest person on the leaderboard with a perfect Battle Royale. This implies that I'm most likely going to be in second place tomorrow, right? I'm honestly not sure who I picked to win on that bracket. This'll be interesting. --- ....TCELES B HSUP |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 11/17/2006 6:10:51 PM | message detail |
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Uh oh, GameSpot gave Twilight Princess an 8.8! Cloud > Link confirmed! --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory. |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 11/17/2006 6:51:45 PM | message detail |
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That's odd, gamespot usually gives overly hyped games an auto-nine just
for existing and not being completely terrible. They usually don't give
a score like that to a game that other sources are giving high scores
to. I mean 8.8 is high, but I'm comparing it to other scores. --- Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 7:10:09 PM | message detail |
| Wow, I'm hyped again -- Cloud really did some
gaining, Link (barely) didn't meet my projections and Cloud is now less
than a point off what I needed to believe he had a chance (this has all
come at the expense of Snake of course ;_;)...sure, I might be just
setting myself up for failure, but I'm not one to go down gracefully or
anything! --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2006 7:12:15 PM | message detail |
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Well I think you're crazy. Cloud is not getting more from Snake than from Sephiroth. CRAZY YOU'RE ALL CRAZY --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2006 7:12:30 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and oh crap, looks like HM's gonna be boycotting Gamespot for the next ten years --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
