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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 432

Master Moltar | Posted 11/16/2006 8:24:39 PM | message detail
Battle Royale: Day 4 – Cloud vs. Link vs. Sephiroth or Solid Snake

Moltar’s Analysis

Cloud
Day 1 – 23.71%
Day 2 – 24.27%
Day 3 – 23.70%

Link
Day 1 – 27.41%
Day 2 – 34.91%
Day 3 – 42.90%

Sephiorth
Day 1 – 16.43%
Day 2 – 14.87%
Day 3 – 16.70%

Snake
Day 1 – 13.12%
Day 2 – 14.76%
Day 3 – 16.70%

Um…looks like Snake and Sephiroth are going toe-to-toe…but whoever wins is gone tommorrow. So…I’m going to go back to watching the match.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sephrioth with lose

Moltar’s Prediction is: Link ~49%, Cloud ~31%, Snake or Sephrioth with 20.00%



Ulti’s? More like Transience’s Analysis

as I write this, Snake is desperately clinging to a 52 vote lead. it looks inevitable that Sephiroth will take the lead soon and barely eek out a win, setting up the expected Clinkeroth match for the final three. anything could happen, though it's not like the next result will change at all.

tonight's match is all about one thing: how much will Cloud gain from Snake being gone? it's generally assumed that FF7 and MGS have an overlapping fanbase thanks to a couple of overperformances in the past - FF7 beating the bloody hell out of MGS in the Game Contest and Sephiroth beating the hell out of Liquid Snake in the Villain Contest. Snake's never gone up against Cloud or Seph one-on-one, but one assumes that it would be a pretty ugly matchup should it occur.

this is a different Snake this year though, one with Nintendo support. how will his votes end up divided? Link will probably get some, but not nearly as many as Cloud or Sephiroth. if Link gets even a third of what Cloud/Sephiroth get, you can pretty much kiss Cloud's small chances goodbye.

prediction: Sephiroth eliminated with 19.5%

*hits reload, sees Snake still holding on by 50 votes*

just-in-case prediction: Snake with 20%



HM’s Analysis

Causality -- …There is not one?!

Well, there’s not one as of this writing at least! Sephiroth and Snake are locked in such a tight match right now that it’s impossible to tell who’s going to win – and this needs to be sent off to good ol’ Moltar! But what they’re fighting for is simply who loses today.

The only semi-interesting thing about who wins here is what percentage Link will get tomorrow. If Sephiroth wins, it’ll be great to see Link break 50% on Cloud + Sephiroth combined, which means Link rocks Final Fantasy VII here at ol’ GameFAQs!

If Snake wins, we get an idea of how many of Sephiroth’s votes are going to Link and Cloud, which undoubtedly will favor the wielder of the airplane wing.

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Link

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Sephiroth wins – Sephiroth with 23%

Solid Snake wins – Solid Snake with 23%



Yoblazer’s Analysis

It was a fantastic contest for Solid Snake, but he came just short of making the miracle run last one day longer. Looks like my spineless, last-second change paid off! Even though I'm a big Snake fanboy, it seems fitting that we end our fifth annual contest with these three GameFAQs legends. For one, they have been the strongest, most popular entrants since these contests began, and all three have earned the right to be here. Secondly, it will be damn fun to see how Link fares against both his biggest rivals at once.
DS Gamer XVII | Posted 11/16/2006 8:24:51 PM | message detail
Yeah, I've voted Snake so far, and I'm voting Link if he loses.
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DS Gamer XVII, The Cream of Smurf FODDER.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/16/2006 8:25:12 PM | message detail
With the Hylian Wonder putting on a clinic throughout the first three days and the FFVII pair (especially Sephiroth) not looking too fantastic, the question on some peoples' lips is "Can Link possibly hit 50%?" Without hesitation, I say yes. Now, do I necessarily think he will hit the magic number? Nope, but I certainly think it's within his power. Link is going to finish with about 43%, and Snake will be leaving at least 16.5% up for grabs, meaning Link would need to nab a good 42% of Snake's leftovers to strike paydirt. It may sound like too tall a task, but we've already seen much stranger things take place in this contest, so I wouldn't be arrogant enough to simply write off the possibility.

Of course, Link's best chance is if Snake is still riding some Nintendo popularity this far into the Battle Royal, meaning that his votes will transfer to Link much more easily tonight. However, that's a bit tough to believe, especially with Elfie having already made Samus and Mario look like Daisy and Donkey Kong. It could be close, but I believe Link will fall a bit short of completely humiliating Final Fantasy VII and Square in one fell swoop.

Link with 49%
Cloud with 31%
Sephiroth with 20%

“o wate, what if Snake wins?”

Wow! The Cinderella story simply refuses to end for Solid Snake! Two Noble 9ers defeated and three Battle Royal survivals within the span of a week! Unfortunately for Board 8's new favorite son, the magical ride is over. Snake is now standing with the biggest of the big, and they don't just roll over and die for anybody.

Sephiroth is gone, which means Cloud will see the most notable increase today. For his sake, he better come out looking at least halfway decent (30% is his absolute floor, and he should be able to break that with ease), lest he wants to become a chew toy for Link in the finals. Link and Snake will do battle for the remaining bits and pieces of Sephiroth's percentage, but it's all for naught here. We know who's moving on and who's headed home.

Link with 46%
Cloud with 33%
Snake with 21%



Lopen’s Analysis

Well, I’m not so sure what to write here, and I was asleep for like an hour, yay! Either Snake squeaks by Sephiroth, or Sephiroth squeaks by Snake. The difference? Not much for this match! The only difference is Cloud. If Sephiroth is eliminated, I give Cloud an off shot to actually beat Link’s %! In that respect, I hope Sephiroth loses, just for some chance at variety. However, I think Sephiroth will be pulling it out.

But, you notice my prediction for Snake and Sephiroth are the same! That’s right, I don’t think it matters as much for them as it does for Cloud. Sorry, you two put in a good fight, but your journey ends here!

Lopen’s Prediction: Snake OR Sephiroth eliminated with 20.95%



KH’s Analysis

Well, I'm not around so I don't know if Snake is holding on against
Sephy, but we pretty much know either's screwed today.

HAHAHAHAHA, WHAT AM I SAYING, SNAKE IS WINNING WITH EASE AND IS
WINNING THIS CONTEST OUTRIGHT

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: LINK LOSES WITH 20% OF THE VOTE

(fine, change Link to Snake/Sephy if you must. but you'll see!)



Crew Consensus: Who cares? Close match going on!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/16/2006 8:25:19 PM | message detail
WHAT NOW KAY AITCH !!

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
xp1337 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:25:28 PM | message detail
Snake gains 3!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (174/208) Sephiroth? Eliminated
DS Gamer XVII | Posted 11/16/2006 8:27:08 PM | message detail
Yes! Almost there!
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DS Gamer XVII, The Cream of Smurf FODDER.
Claude Rena | Posted 11/16/2006 8:29:35 PM | message detail
10 minutes to POWER HOUR!
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Croc+Chocobo=Crocobo
Claude+Rena=Claude Rena
xp1337 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:30:41 PM | message detail
Snake's down 2.

This is the calmest close match I've seen.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (174/208) Sephiroth? Eliminated
xp1337 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:30:58 PM | message detail
Well, down 2 from before, he still leads, but with 5.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (174/208) Sephiroth? Eliminated
zwong1 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:31:10 PM | message detail
Go Snake Go.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
The_Ocelot | Posted 11/16/2006 8:31:48 PM | message detail
5 votes
Majin Lou | Posted 11/16/2006 8:32:50 PM | message detail
SOMEHOW HOLD ON SNAKE!

For great justice!
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I like my coffee black, just like my metal.
http://danceandstomp.net/forum/index.php
HaRRicH | Posted 11/16/2006 8:34:20 PM | message detail
I've come to realize that we oddly can't get excited about Sephiroth losing in a close upset yet get giddy when Gordon loses in a match like he's supposed to.

We're wweeiirrdd.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
xp1337 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:35:36 PM | message detail
HUGE Seph update.

Seph by 19
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (174/208) Sephiroth? Eliminated
Majin Lou | Posted 11/16/2006 8:35:38 PM | message detail
**** you Sephiroth.
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I like my coffee black, just like my metal.
http://danceandstomp.net/forum/index.php
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:35:57 PM | message detail
Damn Sephiroth cheaters !!
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CB5 Points: 139/208, Current Oracle placement: 21/170
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana
DS Gamer XVII | Posted 11/16/2006 8:36:08 PM | message detail
Dammit! C'mon Snake!
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DS Gamer XVII, The Cream of Smurf FODDER.
Mister Mario | Posted 11/16/2006 8:36:33 PM | message detail
BASTARD ASS HELL POOP CRAP GAH
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Z1mZum more like Z1mAwesome.
Support Toadette in the S2k6 Character Contest!
zwong1 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:37:11 PM | message detail
Snake, you can't give up now.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
Claude Rena | Posted 11/16/2006 8:37:29 PM | message detail
POWER TIME for Sephiroth starts NAO !!!!
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Croc+Chocobo=Crocobo
Claude+Rena=Claude Rena
Big Bob | Posted 11/16/2006 8:38:03 PM | message detail
//Big Bob's completely biased and nonsensical analysis

int main()
{
If (Sephiroth > Snake)
Prediction = "Sephiroth with 1%";
else
Prediction = "Cloud with 1%";

return 0;
}

// If you remember, I had some programming troubles today.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
xp1337 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:40:36 PM | message detail
Seph's lead is down 4?

zomg comeback?
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (174/208) Sephiroth? Eliminated
BDawg | Posted 11/16/2006 8:42:38 PM | message detail
I'm going to listen to "battle on big bridge" for the rest of this match....because I feel like it!
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Should I start running now?
xp1337 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:45:35 PM | message detail
Ow.

Lead up to 20.

15 minutes left.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (174/208) Sephiroth? Eliminated
Kaxon | Posted 11/16/2006 8:45:37 PM | message detail
I'm listening to One Winged Angel... because that's the song you hear when Sephiroth gets killed!
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....TCELES B HSUP
Lady Ashe | Posted 11/16/2006 8:46:19 PM | message detail
I'm listening to MGS2 Theme, because Lol Raiden!
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
xp1337 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:47:21 PM | message detail
I'm listening to "Get It By Your Hands" from Eureka 7, I'm not fitting in. =(
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (174/208) Sephiroth? Eliminated
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/16/2006 8:47:43 PM | message detail
MGS2 Main Theme here.

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/16/2006 8:48:02 PM | message detail
I'm listening to 500 game remixes, just because I'm so unbiased!
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 8:49:16 PM | message detail
ADVENT ONE WINGED ANGEL, BABY

VENIET!
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
Claude Rena | Posted 11/16/2006 8:49:20 PM | message detail
Snake has no chance to survive !!
Ha ha ha !!
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Croc+Chocobo=Crocobo
Claude+Rena=Claude Rena
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2006 8:49:33 PM | message detail
I'm listening to the cold, heartless void of this empty space, swallowing me as I type away hoping that a fictional character that I prefer finishes slightly ahead of another fictional character to determine who is in a poll tomorrow on an internet gaming site's online poll contest.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/16/2006 8:50:14 PM | message detail
From Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2006 10:49:33 PM | #282
I'm listening to the cold, heartless void of this empty space, swallowing me as I type away hoping that a fictional character that I prefer finishes slightly ahead of another fictional character to determine who is in a poll tomorrow on an internet gaming site's online poll contest.

Hey, I like that song!
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Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Battle Royale Day 3 - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Snake (160/208)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/16/2006 8:50:36 PM | message detail
And that should do it!

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
xp1337 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:50:36 PM | message detail
Seph by 24 now.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (174/208) Sephiroth? Eliminated
Mister Mario | Posted 11/16/2006 8:51:02 PM | message detail
I just realised that I hadn't voted yet.
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Z1mZum more like Z1mAwesome.
Support Toadette in the S2k6 Character Contest!
charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:51:06 PM | message detail
No Snake you must fight.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Blackapino1984 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:51:09 PM | message detail
Listening to "Megalith -Agnus Dei-" from Ace Combat 4 OST.
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Rock Man's year is next year. Summer 2006 Champion. Unless there's some funky spring contest like Best Mega Man character Ever contest.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:51:36 PM | message detail
SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE!!!!!!!!!!!!
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CB5 Points: 139/208, Current Oracle placement: 21/170
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 8:51:39 PM | message detail
OH MY GOD SEPHIROTH 10 MINUTES. HANG ON!!!!
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
HaRRicH | Posted 11/16/2006 8:51:40 PM | message detail
I just noticed that Mario and Samus are still in today's pic, in their own special way...awesome.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/16/2006 8:52:05 PM | message detail
So...50% for Link tomorrow. I'm lovin' it!

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/16/2006 8:53:10 PM | message detail
I can't believe members of the analysis crew were calling it in favor of Snake today knowing how badly he drops off and how much Seph takes off from the start to end. Anyone who at any point thought Snake had it for sure today was just fooling themselves.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
greatone10 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:53:22 PM | message detail
The picture of Mario in the background is classic.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/16/2006 8:53:47 PM | message detail
That's why I made sure to eliminate Snake yesterday!

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
Claude Rena | Posted 11/16/2006 8:53:53 PM | message detail
Link and Cloud lost like 0.20% in the last hour... vote stuffing with alt is fun...
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Croc+Chocobo=Crocobo
Claude+Rena=Claude Rena
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 8:54:02 PM | message detail
Hey, I thought it was all over too... but hey, it's STILL not over. 24 vote lead is over comeable in 10 minutes.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2006 8:54:09 PM | message detail
Hay, that's ZSS in the background of that pic IT'S HURTING SAMUS
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 11/16/2006 8:54:30 PM | message detail
Who called it for sure? Most of us were saying the match would be close, weren't we?
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
DS Gamer XVII | Posted 11/16/2006 8:54:37 PM | message detail
LOL at the Mario pic.
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DS Gamer XVII, The Cream of Smurf FODDER.