GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 432
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| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2006 9:51:49 PM | message detail |
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Sephiroth's fanbase is a lot more independent of Cloud's. It's why he can hold up so well with him in a direct match. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| creativename | Posted 11/16/2006 9:53:06 PM | message detail |
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It's also a bit weird that Link can take 80% of Samus's votes but Cloud is going to struggle to take 2/3rds of Seph's For one thing, there's a long way to go in this match. Snake should drop at least 2 points I'm thinking. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Janus5000 | Posted 11/16/2006 9:54:01 PM | message detail |
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...Snake won? That is so awesome. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4 |
| creativename | Posted 11/16/2006 9:54:05 PM | message detail |
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Though yeah, he isn't going to hit 2/3. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/16/2006 9:54:08 PM | message detail |
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At this rate, Cloud WILL need about 80% of Snake's votes. Well,not quote 80, but pretty close to it. Yesterday, Snake only fell 2% from the 1 hour mark. Looks like he'll be abot 23% at 1:00, meaning Snake is en route to end at nearly 21% Meaning we'll get Cloud: 34% Link: 45% Snake: 21% Link would need less than a quarter of Snake's votes to beat Cloud if that were the case. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/16/2006 9:54:32 PM | message detail |
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"but Cloud is going to struggle to take 2/3rds of Seph's" Not when you consider how many are going to go Seph > Snake > Cloud. Cloud isn't the black hole that Link is. His fans can like others before him and not be cast out, after all. --- If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot. If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2006 9:56:20 PM | message detail |
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Cloud: 34% Link: 45% Snake: 21% Link would need less than a quarter of Snake's votes to beat Cloud if that were the case. Really? That's almost my Oracle, dead on, and that was with an optimistic conclusion of Cloud making a massive upset tomorrow. Perhaps I have no concept of percentages! --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/16/2006 9:57:28 PM | message detail |
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Well, Snake is falling a little faster than he was yesterday though.
Snake could end at 20. Maybe even lower, but I don't know about that --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/16/2006 9:57:51 PM | message detail |
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Are you trying to tell me Link is going to drop less % today than
yesterday by that large of a margin? Really, from now til the end
yesterday he dropped a full %. You know those count, especially when it
gets dropped stright into Cloud's bucket. :) --- If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot. If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/16/2006 10:01:04 PM | message detail |
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Well, ok. 44.5% Whatever, it's not a huge difference. Even assuming Cloud: 35.5 Link: 44.5 Snake: 20 Link would still only need about 28% of Snake's votes --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| creativename | Posted 11/16/2006 10:01:24 PM | message detail |
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Well, Snake is falling a little faster than he was yesterday though.
Snake could end at 20. Maybe even lower, but I don't know about that Residual Snake early overperformance was expected, given the end of the last match. Snake's won't finish much above 20% if he does. I think most likely he'll finish under 20%. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 10:02:19 PM | message detail |
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I think the prediction % if Cloud beat Link this year would be lower than in 03. --- New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees! # 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3 |
| creativename | Posted 11/16/2006 10:02:35 PM | message detail |
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Link is beating Cloud, though. Not that Cloud winning is impossible,
but you really have to stretch to find support for him winning. But
it's been that way for a while. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 11/16/2006 10:03:35 PM | message detail |
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I think the prediction % if Cloud beat Link this year would be lower than in 03. No way. He doesn't have to go through a bracket first this time. I think at least 20% would have win winning, probably well above that. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| JaKyL25 | Posted 11/16/2006 10:03:51 PM | message detail |
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I can't believe I actually had Seph losing today. WTF was my thought process? Well, I picked the whole contest based on a "Nintendo Up across the board, Characters with no recent releases down across the board, and FFVII static" formula. It's now clear that my BR went Samus < Snake < Seph < Mario < Cloud < Link. I think I assumed that Seph was leeching from Cloud, but that Mario was strong enough as a separate entity from Link to outlast Seph despite being weaker 1-on-1. I was wrong, but it may have saved my chances. Someone's going to pass me today though, but I'll still hopefully finish top 3. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/16/2006 10:11:55 PM | message detail |
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See... you should have been thinking "Link = Black Hole" and "3rd party wins over sff'd Seph". So strange... --- If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot. If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it. |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/16/2006 10:17:41 PM | message detail |
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At this point, I believe we may see Snake near 19% and with Cloud
gaining the bulk of his losses (or all of it, to the naked eye, because
Link will end at a lower % than this). With Losing a bit himself across
the day (and certainly not to Snake, as he'll hemmorage the whole day
long). I can see Cloud pushing 37%. From there he'd need somewhere
around 2/3 of Snake's strength to make it nearly dead even. --- If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot. If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it. |
| JaKyL25 | Posted 11/16/2006 10:20:22 PM | message detail |
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I just did the math based on TRE's very helpful chronicles of who on
the leaderboard got yesterday's and today's matches correct/incorrect. ...I think I've won. The only 4 people within 8 points of me got yesterday wrong as well, meaning they have to lose another 8 points somewhere. I'm losing 8 points today, but that won't matter if they do too. So long as Link wins over Cloud in the final...I won. *faints* --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/16/2006 10:21:50 PM | message detail |
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Better hope you filled everything out right! --- CB5 Points: 139/216, Current Oracle placement: 21/170 Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana |
| MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/16/2006 10:24:15 PM | message detail |
| for Jakyl's sake, Go Link!! |
| Big Bob | Posted 11/16/2006 10:28:27 PM | message detail |
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When Snake was beating the crap out of Sonic people were saying "Snake
> Sephiroth!" They were passed off as morons. And then it happened. --- Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128. |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/16/2006 10:29:20 PM | message detail |
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From JaKyL25 Posted 11/17/2006 1:20:22 AM #468 I just did the math based on TRE's very helpful chronicles of who on the leaderboard got yesterday's and today's matches correct/incorrect. ...I think I've won. The only 4 people within 8 points of me got yesterday wrong as well, meaning they have to lose another 8 points somewhere. I'm losing 8 points today, but that won't matter if they do too. So long as Link wins over Cloud in the final...I won. *faints* I'm rooting for you, bud. I rather like being the only B8 reg to have ever won one of these things =p ~*ST*~ --- PWNED BY RUFUS SHINRA in the Guru contest! Congrats! Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI |
| MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/16/2006 10:29:46 PM | message detail |
| I am not sure about the result so far. It looks like first sign of Link's complete dominance weakening, I am surprised Link may end up below 45% today. I am still confident he can tear Cloud apart tomorrow, but this feels a bit like 2003... |
| Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/16/2006 10:31:19 PM | message detail |
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"I am not sure about the result so far. It
looks like first sign of Link's complete dominance weakening, I am
surprised Link may end up below 45% today. I am still confident he can
tear Cloud apart tomorrow, but this feels a bit like 2003..." Square tore up the whole bracket in 2003. Outside of Samus vs Tifa, that hasn't happened this year. --- Can't think of a good sig. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/16/2006 10:32:43 PM | message detail |
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...Considering it was Sephiroth, who
shouldn't have too many votes go to Link, who was eliminated, there's
not much reason to worry. He's still doing better today than he was
yesterday despite the fact that Sephiroth was eliminated. And despite
how some people want to think, he's going to get a significant chunk of
Snake's votes after today -- and he's already ahead of Cloud as it is. --- "I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!" |
| JaKyL25 | Posted 11/16/2006 10:34:40 PM | message detail |
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I'm rooting for you, bud. I rather like being the only B8 reg to have ever won one of these things =p Thanks! I'm only a regular during the on-season, and even then I'm mostly a lurker. You may continue to lord over everyone else at your leisure. How long did it take to be contacted about the prize? Would I be able to shop online with my (hypothetical at this point!) gift certificates before Christmas? --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. |
| MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/16/2006 10:36:16 PM | message detail |
| Yeah, that is why I said "a bit" like... like 2003, Cloud has looked impressive all week despite being handicapped by Sephiroth's dead weight. Link is still a heavy favorite, perhaps the heaviest favorite to win a 64-character contest since 2003... the same year Cloud shocked the nation. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/16/2006 10:37:53 PM | message detail |
| Cloud has looked impressive? Cloud has looked
normal. He hasn't been shocking anyone with his performances all week.
And, uh, Link is still dominating right now despite Sephiroth being
gone. It's not like Cloud has suddenly caught up to Link. --- "I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!" |
| Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/16/2006 10:42:13 PM | message detail |
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WTF at Links percentage fluctuating back and forth. --- Can't think of a good sig. |
| Big Bob | Posted 11/16/2006 10:42:33 PM | message detail |
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I'm quite certain that more than 5% of Snake's votes will go to Link, and that's all he needs. --- Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128. |
| MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/16/2006 10:43:23 PM | message detail |
| Cloud has looked impressive if you can agree with me that a huge bulk of Snake votes will goto Cloud. I am just going to sit back and watch Link win, but will not be surprised if Cloud puts up a hell of a fight. |
| Kaxon | Posted 11/16/2006 10:46:56 PM | message detail |
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If true you're right, that wouldn't be catchable. Thing is, what are
the odds that you'd have 20+ Snake fans voting twice, but no Sephiroth
fans doing so? That type of rallying should mostly offset. It'd be
incredibly unlikely to swing such a large %age of the votes in a given
update. Well, we do know that Snake was the huge board favorite/early vote favorite last night while Sephiroth was weakest at the exact same time. And the people who vote at the very beginning of the poll are also the people who are likely to be paying attention in the last five minutes and to know that the match is close. So I don't think it's that unlikely it could have been a number of people rather than one concerted effort. --- ....TCELES B HSUP |
| transience | Posted 11/16/2006 10:50:29 PM | message detail |
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hmm... maybe Cloud's not out of this yet. looks like Link didn't gain much at all from Sephiroth bowing out. --- xyzzy |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/16/2006 10:57:54 PM | message detail |
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23:30 | Sephiroth | 22353 | +---- | 49.99% | Snake | 22358 | +---- | 50.01% | Lead of 0005 | (Down 2) 23:35 | Sephiroth | 22429 | +76 | 50.02% | Snake | 22410 | +52 | 49.98% | Lead of 0019 | (Up 24) 23:40 | Sephiroth | 22494 | +65 | 50.02% | Snake | 22479 | +69 | 49.98% | Lead of 0015 | (Down 4) 23:45 | Sephiroth | 22562 | +68 | 50.02% | Snake | 22542 | +63 | 49.98% | Lead of 0020 | (Up 5) 23:50 | Sephiroth | 22639 | +77 | 50.03% | Snake | 22615 | +73 | 49.97% | Lead of 0024 | (Up 4) 23:55 | Sephiroth | 22677 | +38 | 50.00% | Snake | 22675 | +60 | 50.00% | Lead of 0002 | (Down 22) 24:00 | Sephiroth | 22754 | +77 | 49.94% | Snake | 22810 | +135 | 50.06% | Lead of 0056 | (Up 58) Relative to the second last update, both Snake and Sephiroth spiked on the last update. The difference is that in Sephiroth's case it was because his second last update was so horribly bad. --- I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest. Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest! |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/16/2006 10:58:37 PM | message detail |
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hmm... maybe Cloud's not out of this yet. looks like Link didn't gain much at all from Sephiroth bowing out. He was expected to gain much?? --- "I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!" |
| andaca | Posted 11/16/2006 11:03:03 PM | message detail |
| Looking at the five minute breakdowns, its even clearer than I thought....heh. |
| creativename | Posted 11/16/2006 11:06:45 PM | message detail |
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So I don't think it's that unlikely it could have been a number of people rather than one concerted effort. Let's not stretch things so much here. It was cheating that swung most of those 50 votes my friend, there shouldn't be any doubt ;) But Snake would've had about a 50/50 shot to win anyway. The cheating was blatant, yet it wasn't as bad in terms of accepting it as Mario/Crono II, because the cheating may well not have affected the result. So I don't consider it to be too memorable, and people will probably forget about it real fast. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/16/2006 11:11:05 PM | message detail |
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Also in Snake's defense, if he got a proper pic he probably would have cleanly won the match. --- I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest. Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest! |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 11/16/2006 11:13:26 PM | message detail |
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Wow, I just missed the closest match in contest history. ****ing essays are draining way too much of my time. --- Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others. |
| Lucid Faia | Posted 11/16/2006 11:16:29 PM | message detail |
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Hanashi ni naran. --- The Ohio State Buckeyes Record: 11-0. Rank: #1. Next: That Team Up North |
| creativename | Posted 11/16/2006 11:20:33 PM | message detail |
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Also in Snake's defense, if he got a proper pic he probably would have cleanly won the match. Yes, I agree with this too. Sephiroth losing despite the pic advantage reflect poorly on him. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| MisterMuffin | Posted 11/16/2006 11:23:24 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| MisterMuffin | Posted 11/16/2006 11:24:23 PM | message detail |
| The Next contest should be one long ass battle royale. |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 11/16/2006 11:32:11 PM | message detail |
| As much as that would kick ass, it would murder
the main page layout so badly that it has no chance of happening. The
battle royale this year was a great idea though. It turned out
amazingly well, and just reafirms this as one of my top three favourite
contests. Possibly even higher. --- Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others. |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/16/2006 11:42:42 PM | message detail |
| I'd getting a feeling he's going to have a
gauntlet. The next contest winner has to make it through Samus, Mario,
Sephiroth, Snake, (presumedly) Cloud, and (likewise) Link. Whoever wins
the match continues on. --- If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot. If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it. |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/17/2006 12:13:43 AM | message detail |
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Link (and Snake) seems to be falling off much faster tonight than last
night. Though, I'd love to see him end up the exact same % as
yesterday. :) --- If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot. If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it. |
| JaKyL25 | Posted 11/17/2006 12:19:13 AM | message detail |
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I like the Gauntlet idea, but it doesn't seem fair to retire Snake to that level yet. Crono's accomplished just as much as Snake has in the main bracket. I say toss him back in the mix and set him on a collision course with Crono in the finals (or Seph if you throw him back in there as well so he can win a Summer Contest proper), and let that winner gauntlet through Samus/Mario/Cloud/Link. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. |
| TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/17/2006 12:49:01 AM | message detail |
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I have a very horrible feeling that Cloud may pull it off in the final afainst Link. >_< --- Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!? Squall: ...Flower. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/17/2006 12:50:16 AM | message detail |
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You have that same feeling regardless of what is actually happening for no reason. << --- "I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!" |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 11/17/2006 12:50:20 AM | message detail |
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It’s five years since I left this land Since I left my friends to burn Five years making bitter plans Preparing my return All this time my hatred’s grown The one thing on my mind The hate in me is all I’ve known The one thing keeping me alive Bold words spreads across the land Bragging tongues speak carelessly Know they not what is to come I’ll hunt them down restlessly The oath I swore, once sealed in blood A seal between loyal friends I swore before ancient Gods I will have revenge I swore! Before my Gods! An oath! Once sealed in blood Now here I stand in pouring rain As he comes riding down the path He will learn the emaning of pain As subject to my endless wrath He will be the first to pay For the bragging words he spoke He’ll regret that fateful day My friends perished in smoke I swore! Before my Gods! An oath! Once sealed in blood So here I stand on the road With cold steel in my hand As he looks into my unforgiving sould His tears begins to run One man down 29 to go Consider yourselves warned I’m coming for the rest of you And will have no remorse --- Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others. |
