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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 431

ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/16/2006 9:23:40 AM | message detail
"If the same swing applies today,"

It'll probably be more, since the votes are being split fewer ways.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/16/2006 9:24:10 AM | message detail
But there are fewer overall votes coming in, so perhaps it cancels out.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/16/2006 9:24:56 AM | message detail
Hadn't noticed. Perhaps so.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
BDawg | Posted 11/16/2006 10:31:09 AM | message detail
Heh here's what I would consider the ideal setup for Link to be in a bracket next year:

Link
Tingle

Gordon Freeman
(Next year's joke)

Donkey Kong
Jill Sandwich

Master Chief
(someone he won't choke to)

Basically the idea is to setup Link/Gordon and Link/Master Chief (although there's still no guarantee Chief won't choke), and to see how ugly Link/Tingle can get. And at the same time no noble nine breakers were harmed in the making of this bracket.
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Should I start running now?
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 10:33:56 AM | message detail
Oh wow. We're not done with this topic yet.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/16/2006 10:35:18 AM | message detail
Put Chief up against Solano, just so we can see what anti-votes can do.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
BDawg | Posted 11/16/2006 11:11:44 AM | message detail
Well 432 turned into some Nintendo FAQs garbage so I think I'll give this one the bumparoo.
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Should I start running now?
transience | Posted 11/16/2006 11:18:27 AM | message detail
hmm.. Snake vs. Seph will be close I guess, though this format seems a lot less interesting as far as a close match goes. it looks like this will end under 100 votes, but who knows.

we should track the total number of votes near the end to see if rallying happens - if it does, it should impact a four-way poll a lot more than a two-way.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 11/16/2006 11:29:45 AM | message detail
and I want to know what Ceej does about the picture tonight. he won't have much time to make one if trends hold up.
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xyzzy
Crimson Dragoon | Posted 11/16/2006 11:31:20 AM | message detail
Possibly make two pictures just to cover himself.
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~FFDragon (at work !!)
FFDragoon, now with the blood of the mods stained to his armor and dripping from his lance.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2006 11:37:31 AM | message detail
C'mon, Snake! HOLD ON AND BEAT THAT STUPID SEPHY!!!

...and people suggesting that Link is going to get a bigger split than Cloud from Snake's votes seems kind of off to me. Yeah, Snake is probably getting some support from the Nintendo fanbase nowadays, but let's not forget that the man was one of the strongest characters in the contest before that, and it was based on a strength that primarily comes from the Playstation. He's still getting the majority of his strength from that Playstation fanbase, and I couldn't imagine said fanbase deferring to Link over Cloud. It won't be by as LARGE of a margin thanks to that new Nintendo support (but really, Link couldn't afford a very large swing), but yeah.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/16/2006 11:52:10 AM | message detail
Throw into that, that any Nintendo support Snake would be getting is from a SSB trailer, and Link has actually already been in both SSB games, and he should have already robbed Snake of any Nintendo support.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2006 11:56:43 AM | message detail
The biggest wildcard to me, is Sephy. If Cloud gets a comparable amount of the Sephiroth vote as Link got from the Mario/Samus vote, I feel extremely confident in his chances to win this thing. The only question is how united the Square fanbase is.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/16/2006 12:53:22 PM | message detail
Throw into that, that any Nintendo support Snake would be getting is from a SSB trailer, and Link has actually already been in both SSB games, and he should have already robbed Snake of any Nintendo support.

But we know he didn't take all of it because he has increased both times when Mario and Samus were eliminated. It's going to split in favor of Cloud, but he's not getting any type of big majority or anything. When I gave him 2100 of Snake's votes yesterday and 100% of Sephiroth's votes, he was beating Link (I gave Link 1500 of Snake's votes) by a couple hundred of votes only. I haven't added it up since then, but yeah. Snake's not getting any significant majority. Really out there to assume he is.

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/16/2006 12:57:38 PM | message detail
But, of course, Link getting the majority of Snake's votes wouldn't be surprising in the slightest. It's just impossible to predict how those are going to split or who they're going to favor. Obviously Cloud seems to be the "favorite" to get them, but it's a for sure thing at all.

All that considered, I'm not really expecting much from the final. Link should take it without any problem like he has nearly every other time.

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2006 12:58:22 PM | message detail
I assume you mean Cloud's not getting any significant majority...but why is it so logical to assume that? Yeah, Snake's benefitted from Mario and Samus going out, but if he outlasts Sephiroth today he should benefit nicely as well, right? It shouldn't be an overwhelming split, but I see no good argument for Link taking more of the Snake vote other than him being inherently stronger.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2006 12:59:13 PM | message detail
But, of course, Link getting the majority of Snake's votes wouldn't be surprising in the slightest.

...yeah, it kinda would.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Mumei | Posted 11/16/2006 1:10:32 PM | message detail
HM, you've been drinking too much of the cult Kool-Aid. <<

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived"- Sensei, "Kokoro"
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/16/2006 1:12:58 PM | message detail
If you give Cloud 100% of Sephiroth's vote, which again he is not going to get, and that brings Cloud's total votes to 33,889 votes to Link's 35,552. Then you split Snake's votes in half, but give a majority to Cloud (8,000 to Cloud and 6,500 to Link). That brings Cloud's total to 41,889 to Link's 42,052.

...Yeah. I'm not worried about Link at all.

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/16/2006 1:13:35 PM | message detail
My only worry for Cloud is that Link has THREE times where he's especially dominant: The Power Hour (which is essentially what killed FF against Zelda in the Series Contest), the morning vote (where Link put Cloud in his place the last two years when they had been very close), and the after school vote. I don't know if Cloud can do enough to offset those.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2006 1:14:16 PM | message detail
I'm not even talking about Link/Cloud, I'm talking about what possible rationale you could have for having Link getting more of Snake's votes than Cloud. Nothing's impossible, but...that's really out there, HM.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/16/2006 1:16:16 PM | message detail
Because of the fact that Snake has shot up twice since two Nintendo characters have been eliminated and that his newfound strength this contest is supposedly coming from SSBB trailers? Or did he magically get that from somewhere else? I'm not saying Link is going to get the majority and never even bother coming up with a scenario where he does. But if he happened to get it, I'm not going to be all "HOLY CRAP WHOA."

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
Yesmar | Posted 11/16/2006 1:16:45 PM | message detail
My only worry for Cloud is that Link has THREE times where he's especially dominant: The Power Hour (which is essentially what killed FF against Zelda in the Series Contest), the morning vote (where Link put Cloud in his place the last two years when they had been very close), and the after school vote. I don't know if Cloud can do enough to offset those

Link shouldn't benefit from the after school vote since Link Vs. Cloud should be on a Saturday.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/16/2006 1:19:10 PM | message detail
I'm not saying Cloud getting the majority of Snake's votes is a mortal LOCK, but if Link did get the majority I would be like "HOLY CARP WOAH", because that contradicts most everything I've seen about Snake's fanbase. SSBB should only make the split less severe, perhaps turning a 55-45 advantage for Cloud into a 53-47 advantage.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BDawg | Posted 11/16/2006 1:28:19 PM | message detail
I don't see how Seph is gonna catch Snake when Link is pretty much stealing everybody's day votes.
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Should I start running now?
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/16/2006 1:39:32 PM | message detail
Throw into that, that any Nintendo support Snake would be getting is from a SSB trailer, and Link has actually already been in both SSB games, and he should have already robbed Snake of any Nintendo support.

And the same should be true of Cloud/Sephiroth and Snake. Any Playstation support Snake gets would be siphoned away, since FFVII is a much bigger game than MGS, so they should have already robbed Snake of any Playstation support.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/16/2006 1:56:38 PM | message detail
Seph made a 30 vote cut not too long ago. He might still have a chance at this.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/16/2006 2:00:33 PM | message detail
And the same should be true of Cloud/Sephiroth and Snake. Any Playstation support Snake gets would be siphoned away, since FFVII is a much bigger game than MGS, so they should have already robbed Snake of any Playstation support

Except for the fact that Snake has, you know, actual released games on the Playstation.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 2:01:23 PM | message detail
Under 700, baby! Come on Sephiroth, 5 hours left. Estuans Interius, ira ve hementi and what not!
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/16/2006 2:02:03 PM | message detail
"I am not annoying as a Sephiroth fanboy!"
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/16/2006 2:02:32 PM | message detail
You mean 7 hours.

If Seph continues to get 10 votes per 5 minutes, he swings 720 votes over the next 6 hours. The problem is that Snake won the final hour last night, so Seph needs to step it up a bit.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 2:02:40 PM | message detail
Oh shut up, it's perfectly fine when you Snake fans cheer for him!
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/16/2006 2:03:12 PM | message detail
From LeonhartForever Posted 11/16/2006 5:02:03 PM #430
"I am not annoying as a Sephiroth fanboy!"

LAWL.

Exxy makes me cringe for liking Seph sometimes, just like jp makes me cringe for being an FF7 mark.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 2:03:32 PM | message detail
Sephy needs a few more of those 30 vote cuts.

Ugh, i'm in a show tonight, so I won't be here for most of it, and if we have a cast party, then I'll probably miss the photo finish. >.<
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 2:04:19 PM | message detail
Okay, how in the hell are you going to say that I'm as bad as the jp? Honest to God, what is it that I do that is any different than what KH does with Snake or what HM does with Link? Seriously, that's just stupid and low.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/16/2006 2:05:05 PM | message detail
JP has actually gotten a lot better. He was terrible two years ago.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 2:06:56 PM | message detail
I am aware, but how am I bad at all about it? I'd say KH and HM are both worse than I am, if anything.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
goku z | Posted 11/16/2006 2:07:41 PM | message detail
When is Sephiroth supposed to start coming back at a better rate?
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ad hominem
appealing to one's prejudices, emotions, or special interests rather than to one's intellect or reason.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/16/2006 2:07:46 PM | message detail
I think I'm a bit better since I don't randomly break into a Latin jig mid-sentence!

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 2:08:33 PM | message detail
Latin > You!!
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
trannyscience | Posted 11/16/2006 2:10:11 PM | message detail
I think I'm a bit better since I don't randomly break into a Latin jig mid-sentence!

truth!

(though you do kind of do some text-based humping of Link's leg)
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zizzy
"And I am not annoying as a Sephiroth fan!" -ExTha
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 2:12:45 PM | message detail
Well then if me cheering on my favorite character is annoying then I guess you'll have to deal with it.

Noli Manare, manare en memory, Sephiroth!
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 2:13:54 PM | message detail
And Sephiroth can't do stuff like this. The whole stall for 15 minutes would've been nice last night, but now he needs to be gaining every single update.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
trannyscience | Posted 11/16/2006 2:15:13 PM | message detail
Sephiroth's in okay shape here. his best time yesterday was the evening vote which is still to come. I'd say this is 50/50.
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zizzy
"And I am not annoying as a Sephiroth fan!" -ExTha
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/16/2006 2:17:10 PM | message detail
Oh, ExTha, you're fine...until one of your favorites loses, especially if it's to Nintendo. You're a very sore loser. No offense or anything, but you're a little hard to stand whenever a favorite of yours loses.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 2:17:30 PM | message detail
That update rocked. A lot. He knocked off 38 votes in one update!!
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 2:18:17 PM | message detail
You're a very sore loser. No offense or anything, but you're a little hard to stand whenever a favorite of yours loses.

Yeah... yeah, I'll admit... I'm an absolutely terrible loser. I always have been. >.< Whether it's sports or something else, I've always been a bad loser.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/16/2006 2:18:26 PM | message detail
Sephiroth has a good shot over here. I like Snake more, but I kind of want a Link vs Cloud/Sephiroth.

I don't know if Link can even see Sephy and Snake from all the way up there. ;p
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/16/2006 2:20:16 PM | message detail
If Link somehow loses, TCA.. how much is it gonna take to pull your jaw off the floor? =P
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
Master Moltar | Posted 11/16/2006 2:20:47 PM | message detail
o lawd i hope snake holds on
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Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Battle Royale Day 3 - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Snake (160/208)