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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 431

Super Luigi | Posted 11/16/2006 2:31:20 AM | message detail
I'm betting Sephiroth comes back and Snake loses.
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Currently playing : Gears of War(Xbox 360), Call of Duty 3(Xbox 360), NHL 2K7(Xbox 360).
XBL GT - SuPeR MiKe 86
rpgapzx | Posted 11/16/2006 2:33:05 AM | message detail
In lieu of TRE's revealation that the Noble Nine each have at least 14 contest wins, here is everyone else with at least 5.

Bowser: X-2-1-3-3-1 (10)
Ganondorf: X-1-1-4-2-0 (8)
Squall 0-2-2-X-2-1 (7)
Yoshi X-1-2-X-2-2 (7)
Sora X-0-2-X-2-2 (6)
Dante 1-1-2-X-1-1(6)
Ryu 1-2-1-X-1-1 (6)
Auron X-1-2-X-1-2 (6)
Zelda X-1-X-X-1-4 (6)
Aeris 2-2-X-X-X-2 (6)
Alucard 2-2-0-X-1-0 (5)
Luigi X-1-1-X-1-2 (5)
Kirby 0-1-1-X-2-1 (5)
Zero X-1-2-X-2-0 (5)
Tifa X-X-X-X-2-3 (5)
rpgapzx | Posted 11/16/2006 2:34:55 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
rpgapzx | Posted 11/16/2006 2:37:50 AM | message detail
Notable Observations:
All characters on the list have at least made a 3rd round(won 2 matches in a single contest) on this list.

If this eliminated weak brackets (2k2, SpC2k5, Female side of SC2k6), the list would look like this:
Bowser: 2-1-3-1 (7)
Squall 2-2-2-1 (7)
Yoshi 1-2-2-2 (7)
Sora 0-2-2-2 (6)
Auron 1-2-1-2 (6) Moves up in position.
Dante 1-2-1-1(5)
Ryu 2-1-1-1 (5)
Luigi 1-1-1-2 (5)
Kirby 1-1-2-1 (5)
Zero 1-2-2-0 (5)

Bowser, Ryu and Dante are the only characters to have won a match in at least 5 contests.
Bowser: X-2-1-3-3-1 (10)
Dante 1-1-2-X-1-1(6)
Ryu 1-2-1-X-1-1 (6)

Tifa Lockheart is the only character to make the list in only 2 contests.
Tifa X-X-X-X-2-3 (5)

Only Aeris has had 3 years between contest entries, yet still made this list.
Aeris 2-2-X-X-X-2 (6)

Only Zelda and Aeris have had 2 years between contest entries, yet still made this list.
Zelda X-1-X-X-1-4 (6)
Aeris 2-2-X-X-X-2 (6)

Only Ganondorf has made a contest final, but Zelda has also made a 5th round.
Ganondorf: X-1-1-4-2-0 (8)
Zelda X-1-X-X-1-4 (6)

Only Bowser has made the 4th round more than once.
Bowser: X-2-1-3-3-1 (10)

5 Characters have made the 3rd round thrice.
Bowser: X-2-1-3-3-1 (10)
Squall 0-2-2-X-2-1 (7)
Yoshi X-1-2-X-2-2 (7)
Sora X-0-2-X-2-2 (6)
Aeris 2-2-X-X-X-2 (6)

8 Characters on this list have never gone home without winning at least 1 match in each contest entered(minimum 3 contests)
Bowser: X-2-1-3-3-1 (10)
Yoshi X-1-2-X-2-2 (7)
Dante 1-1-2-X-1-1(6)
Ryu 1-2-1-X-1-1 (6)
Auron X-1-2-X-1-2 (6)
Zelda X-1-X-X-1-4 (6)
Aeris 2-2-X-X-X-2 (6)
Luigi X-1-1-X-1-2 (5)

Only Sora and Aeris have never gone home without winning at least 2 matches in each contest entered (minimum 3 contests)
Sora X-0-2-X-2-2 (6)
Aeris 2-2-X-X-X-2 (6)

Knuckles and Tommy Vercetti are the only characters who have won 1 match in every contest they have appeared in (3 contests minimum) but not make this list. (4 Contests for Knuckles, 3 for Vercetti)
Knuckles:1-1-1-0-1-0 (4)
Vercetti: 0-2-1-0-1-0 (4)

Vincent Valentine and Diablo are the only characters who have made a 4th round in a contest(won 3 matches) but not make this list.
VV: X-X-X-X-3-1 (4)
Diablo: X-X-X-3-1-X (4)

CATS and Gordon Freeman are the only characters to have appeared in 5 contests, but not make this list.
GFNW: 0-0-0-X-0-1 (1)
CATS: 0-0-0-0-0-X (0)

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Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/16/2006 3:02:13 AM | message detail
Let's see. On day 1, Seph went up .9 from here. On day 2, he went up .37

On day 1, Snake went down 1.12 from here. On day 2 he went down .9

I guess that would mean Seph's best case scenario is probably losing only by .5%

Worst case would be losing by about 1.2%

Well either way he loses...
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Claude Rena | Posted 11/16/2006 3:03:13 AM | message detail
lol at joke characters (CATS and GFNW).

CATS appeared this year too.

And Sephiroth is doing the comeback slowly but surely, taking Link and Snake's portions. This shows that FF Fanboys are late voters (from morning).
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Croc+Chocobo=Crocobo
Claude+Rena=Claude Rena
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/16/2006 3:53:13 AM | message detail
Snake is Links puppet. First he SFFs Samus and Mario so they go out and Snake remains in, then Link gives Snake part of their votes to help him knock out Sephiroth. Once Sephiroth is gone, Cloud will boost up but still stay behind Link by a good amount, while Snake surprisingly gets a decent amount of votes before going out. Finally, we all find out that roughly half of Snakes votes went to Link and Link proceeds to kick Clouds ass. : D

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Can't think of a good sig.
zwong1 | Posted 11/16/2006 3:55:24 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/16/2006 3:57:44 AM | message detail
I was joking. It would be funny if it turns out that way though.

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Can't think of a good sig.
therealmnm | Posted 11/16/2006 4:08:01 AM | message detail
Haven't been around, but I have to say that the battle royal results have went as I expected them to. As I said before, this is a glorified favorites poll. I said long ago that Snake would do VERY well if he made the battle royal. I don't know what all the fuss was about him being SFF'd by Cloud and Sephiroth. It should have been obvious that Snake is a heavy favorite among those that like him. Unlike someone like Mario who gets a lot of his votes from being generally liked, Snake has HARDCORE fans (as seen in this very topic!!), so even if he shares some fanbase with the FF crew, it definitely didn't mean that he gets SFF'd by them.

Had I taken Snake to win the male bracket, I definitely would have taken him to get past Samus and Mario, although I wouldn't think that Sephiroth would tank like this (lol ExTha Sephiroth > Cloud!).
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
Haste_2 | Posted 11/16/2006 4:47:14 AM | message detail
I wonder how many people will have gotten the Battle Royale completely correct? Too bad we may never find that out.

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Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
red sox 777 | Posted 11/16/2006 4:48:32 AM | message detail
Wow, I'm actually getting the battle royale right. (Have Link > Cloud > Male > Sephiroth > Mario > Female). Too bad I messed up the main bracket so badly even these extra 24 points won't salvage my bracket up to even a decent level.
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"........!" ~Magus
Heroic Knuckles | Posted 11/16/2006 4:50:29 AM | message detail
SNAKE > SEPHIROTH
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I want a sandwich.
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/16/2006 5:34:52 AM | message detail
Only Sora and Aeris have never gone home without winning at least 2 matches in each contest entered (minimum 3 contests)

Uhh...Did you forget about the big 0 for Sora in 2003?
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/16/2006 5:41:02 AM | message detail
Right now, Solid Snake leads Sephiroth by 773 votes. At this same time yesterday, he led by 466 votes and lost by 162 votes, a swing of 628 votes. If the same thing happens, Solid Snake would win with 145 votes. Of course, there's one less character to siphon votes away, so whether that helps Sephiroth make a comeback or not, who knows?

All I know is that it would be awesome if, even only due to the format, we could say Solid Snake beat Sephiroth in a Character Battle poll. I wonder if he'd get 20% tomorrow without Sephy. Probably not.

Battle Royale Day 1 at 8:30 - 49825
Battle Royale Day 2 at 8:30 - 42059
Battle Royale Day 3 at 8:30 - 39840

Not quite as big of a dropoff as from day 1 to day 2, but a dropoff nonetheless.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/16/2006 5:45:42 AM | message detail
Oh, and for those wondering about exactly how much of Sephiroth's votes will go to Cloud, last year Sephiroth got 94.74% of them against Link. If that were to hold up, Cloud would have 39.40% right now. That still puts him behind Link and doesn't account for where the other 5% goes, naturally. It's only a rough estimate anyway.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 11/16/2006 5:47:11 AM | message detail
Been a while since it was posted, but I just thought I should point out that Mega Man has 17 contest wins, not 18. He didn't make the 5th round this year.
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Terrible demon. Ouch...
Samus TOTALLY still won the contest this year! How about that SFF!
zwong1 | Posted 11/16/2006 5:48:01 AM | message detail
last year Sephiroth got 94.74% of them against Link.

????? What is that poll.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
Crimson Dragoon | Posted 11/16/2006 5:49:07 AM | message detail
, but Link is probably one of, if not the most popular character(s) in gaming, be it here or somewhere else.

Perhpas one of, but definitely not the most popular.
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~FFDragon (at work !!)
FFDragoon, now with the blood of the mods stained to his armor and dripping from his lance.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/16/2006 6:18:02 AM | message detail
Nah, I've seen Link dominate some GameSpot polls before over other Nintendo characters, and considering almost no matter where you go LoZ:OoT and LoZ:LttP are two of the most respected games, Link being "one of the most popular" is a minimum.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/16/2006 6:19:44 AM | message detail
I never realized how divided these fanbases really were. Cloud and Seph literally not benefitting at all from Mario and Samus's votes, with Link getting between 70 and 80% of it. And Seph likely giving over 80% of his votes to Cloud tomorrow.

Sheesh
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/16/2006 6:45:17 AM | message detail
????? What is that poll.

They both faced Link last year. Of course, it was Sephiroth who got Cloud's votes, but this poll would work the other way around, so it probably won't hold to that form.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/16/2006 7:11:34 AM | message detail
Snake is actually increasing his lead right now. Awesome.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/16/2006 7:15:06 AM | message detail
Link has a lead of 903 over Cloud and Sephiroth. A few updates back, it was around 800. ^_^
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/16/2006 7:16:49 AM | message detail
Oh please, nobody cares about Link. Solid Snake is where it's at. When Sephiroth is eliminated, he'll get 100% of his votes. And then when Cloud is eliminated, he'll get 100% of his votes. Solid Snake getting 58% on Link? BANK ON IT!
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Battle Royale Day 3: Sephiroth
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/16/2006 7:19:12 AM | message detail
Ha! In a match between those too Link would SFF Snake so bad that what he did to Ganon would seem kind.
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/16/2006 7:20:47 AM | message detail
Heh, in a 6 way poll, Solid Snake had more than Ganondorf did against Link.

SOLID SNAKE IS INVINCIBLE
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Battle Royale Day 3: Sephiroth
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/16/2006 7:22:27 AM | message detail
Pshht. Link is letting Snake get that much. He wants to watch that cute battle all the way down there between Snake and Sephiroth.
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/16/2006 7:30:32 AM | message detail
The only problem is that Solid Snake is letting Link think he's struggling. Then, out of nowhere:

http://www.smashbros.com/en/characters/chara5/img/photo_l2.jpg

SHOWTIME!
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Battle Royale Day 3: Sephiroth
charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2006 7:31:35 AM | message detail
Rate/Predict the bracket I just made up.

Summer 2007 Mock Bracket

Hyrule Division


1) Link (The Legend of Zelda)
8) Albel Nox (Star Ocean: Till the End of Time)

4) Jill Valentine (Resident Evil)
5) Rinoa Heartilly (Final Fantasy VIII)

3) Leon Kennedy (Resident Evil)
6) Sub-Zero (Mortal Kombat)

2) Kratos (God of War)
7) Riku (Kingdom Hearts)

Midgar Division

1) Cloud Strife (Final Fantasy VII)
8) Marth (Fire Emblem)

4) Akuma (Street Fighter)
5) Mewtwo (Pokemon)

3) Dante Sparda (Devil May Cry)
6) Bowser (Super Mario Bros)

2) Luigi (Super Mario Bros)
7) Magus (Chrono Trigger)

Jenova Division

1) Sephiroth (Final Fantasy VII)
8) Meta Knight (Kirby series)

4) Ken Masters (Street Fighter)
5) Pac-Man (Pac-Man)

3) Knuckles the Echidna (Sonic the Hedgehog)
6) Ashe (Final Fantasy XII)

2) Yoshi (Super Mario Bros)
7) Aya (Chrono Trigger)

Gear Division

1) Solid Snake (Metal Gear Solid)
8) Bridget (Guilty Gear)

4) Donkey Kong (Donkey Kong series)
5) Rikku (Final Fantasy X)

3) Ganondorf Dragmire (The Legend of Zelda)
6) Sora (Kingdom Hearts)

2) Tifa Lockhart (Final Fantasy VII)
7) Diddy Kong (Donkey Kong Country)

Mushroom Division

1) Mario (Super Mario Bros)
8) Rayman (Rayman)

4) Mog (Final Fantasy VI)
5) Serge (Chrono Cross)

3) Kirby (Kirby series)
6) Zero (Mega Man X)

2) Ryu (Street Fighter)
7) Banjo (Banjo Kazooie)

20XX Division

1) Mega Man (Mega Man)
8) Rydia of Mist (Final Fantasy IV)

4) Aeris Gainsborough (Final Fantasy VII)
5) Yuna (Final Fantasy X)

3) Vincent Valentine (Final Fantasy VII)
6) Gordon Freeman (Half-Life)

2) Zelda (The Legend of Zelda)
7) Fei Fong Wong (Xenogears)

Chaos Division

1) Sonic the Hedgehog (Sonic the Hedgehog)
8) Locke Cole (Final Fantasy VI)

4) Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII)
5) Master Chief (Halo)

3) Auron (Final Fantasy X)
6) Princess Peach (Super Mario Bros)

2) Squall Leonhart (Final Fantasy VIII)
7) KOS-MOS (Xenosaga)

Zebes Division

1) Samus Aran (Metroid)
8) James Sunderland (Silent Hill)

4) Vaan (Final Fantasy XII)
5) Shadow the Hedgehog (Sonic the Hedgehog)

3) Raiden (Metal Gear Solid)
6) Fox McCloud (Starfox)

2) Crono (Chrono Trigger)
7) Nightmare (Soul Calibur)

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/16/2006 7:31:57 AM | message detail
He's only setting himself up for a spin attack!
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/16/2006 7:33:11 AM | message detail
NO MORE FINAL FANTASY VI CHARACTERS!

Seriously though, decent bracket. Clinkeroth does hinder some unpredictability though.
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Battle Royale Day 3: Sephiroth
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/16/2006 7:33:42 AM | message detail
A spin attack? That weak thing? Solid Snake is supposed to be afraid of that?
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Battle Royale Day 3: Sephiroth
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/16/2006 7:45:50 AM | message detail
That spin attack has been known to be the most annoying attack to newcomers to the Smash Brothers series....which is what Snake is!
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2006 7:47:10 AM | message detail
I loved using the Spin Attack when I first got the game.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/16/2006 7:47:46 AM | message detail
Why is everyone so surprised about Link beating out Cloud+Sephiroth right now? With Snake in the poll I would certainly hope he could outdraw them, otherwise I'd be real worried about his chances against Cloud in the final.

Amen... the amount of orgasming out of the Link squad is getting a little ridiculous. Hitting 60% has a better chance of happening than losing? If Link wasn't winning right now combining Cloud/Seph's votes, It'd be a damn near lock for Cloud to win it. There's no reason Cloud shouldn't get a lot more than 50% of Snake's votes. It's gonna be close.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/16/2006 7:49:59 AM | message detail
That spin attack has been known to be the most annoying attack to newcomers to the Smash Brothers series....which is what Snake is!

To Smash Brothers, maybe, but Solid Snake was a veteran of all sorts of battles when Link was just piddling around with a wooden sword.
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Battle Royale Day 3: Sephiroth
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/16/2006 7:51:18 AM | message detail
gg Snake. Sephiroth is going to have another killer day vote.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/16/2006 7:56:50 AM | message detail
Yeah, I love how that killer day vote has done...well, nothing to Solid Snake so far. He's still ahead by 790 votes, and that's close to where he's been the last few hours.
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Battle Royale Day 3: Sephiroth
BeTheMan | Posted 11/16/2006 8:07:01 AM | message detail
I wish there was some way of knowing how many voters check the results of the day's poll before casting their votes, because it seems like that could have a major impact on a battle royale style poll. I would think that there must be a fair number of voters throwing support to either Snake or Sephiroth today simply because they're in danger of going out...then again, if that line of thinking holds true, then Mario should have been able to pick up more Nintendo backing yesterday than he actually did, unless he simply wasn't close enough to surviving for people to bother with it.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO Z1mZum FOR ROCKING THE GURU WORLD
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/16/2006 8:07:57 AM | message detail
So, uhh...Is Solid Snake/Sephiroth going to go on the all-time closest matches list?
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Battle Royale Day 3: Sephiroth
zwong1 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:16:09 AM | message detail
So, uhh...Is Solid Snake/Sephiroth going to go on the all-time closest matches list?

Maybe.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
TRE Public Account | Posted 11/16/2006 8:17:10 AM | message detail
There's no reason Cloud shouldn't get a lot more than 50% of Snake's votes.

About 25% of Snake's votes are coming from former Mario and Samus voters. Almost all of those will go to Link. The fact that Snake is boosting from Nintendo characters leaving suggests that a fair chunk of his votes might go back out to Nintendo.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/16/2006 8:18:49 AM | message detail
Meh, just because the Nintendo votes went to Snake doesn't mean they automatically go to Link afterwards. That might imply that they're still just as likely to go to Cloud since they didn't automatically defer to Link.
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Battle Royale Day 3: Sephiroth
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/16/2006 8:23:33 AM | message detail
So, uhh...Is Solid Snake/Sephiroth going to go on the all-time closest matches list?

I don't see why not. I didn't include yesterday's 162 vote difference on my list because neither Sephiroth nor Snake were eliminated because of it, but that problem won't be repeated today.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
XIII_rocks | Posted 11/16/2006 8:40:02 AM | message detail
I want to have sex with Solid Snake. Is this a bad thing?
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
Who Cares? | Posted 11/16/2006 8:51:05 AM | message detail
That mock bracket of charmander's is nice, but there's some things that just don't look right to me. Toss out the pre-FF7 characters, we don't need 'em anymore. I doubt we're going to see characters like Aeris & Rikku comeback, too many other characters in their game/series to jump over, especially if you're bringing back Clinkeroth. (Plus Aeris' poor showing pretty much ended her contest career in my eyes) And seeing characters like Chief & Sora seeded so low just doesn't compute for me.
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*Go play Tales of the Abyss*
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/16/2006 9:04:02 AM | message detail
At the halfway mark, Solid Snake leads Sephiroth by 836 votes. At this same time yesterday, he led by 636 votes. He lost by 162, a swing of 798 votes. If the same swing applies today, Solid Snake wins by 38 votes.

...Hold firm, Snake!
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Battle Royale Day 3: Sephiroth
consolefreak | Posted 11/16/2006 9:05:00 AM | message detail
At the halfway mark, Solid Snake leads Sephiroth by 836 votes. At this same time yesterday, he led by 636 votes. He lost by 162, a swing of 798 votes. If the same swing applies today, Solid Snake wins by 38 votes.

...Hold firm, Snake!


Thanks for that.

Come on, Sephy!

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CB2k6: 172/192. Battle Royale: Samus < Snake < Mario < Sephiroth < Cloud < Link
Gooper Blooper | Posted 11/16/2006 9:07:26 AM | message detail
Sephiroth shall channel the spirit of Jill Valentine and lose by 27 votes.
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face it cjay i have the high ground i have powend you - ertyu