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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 431

RPGuy96 | Posted 11/15/2006 11:04:53 PM | message detail
Second time I posted that in the wrong topic...The "lead" there is Snake over Sephiroth, by the way.
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MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/15/2006 11:07:10 PM | message detail
1:30 -- 808
1:35 -- 818
1:40 -- 855
1:45 -- 850
1:50 -- 883
1:55 -- 911
2:00 -- 906
2:05 -- 883


Heh. Yeah. It looks like it'll start falling from here until morning hits then Link will start climbing there and then definitely after school lets out. Pretty crazy stuff.

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/15/2006 11:08:18 PM | message detail
Holy hell @ mario getting less then 10% of people predicting him falling out in round 2. That absolutely decimated the top fifty. I definitely prefer this way of finishing the contest to last years.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
transience | Posted 11/15/2006 11:09:53 PM | message detail
Does anyone remember at what point in video game history Link/Zelda took the top spot away from Mario and his games when it comes to Nintendo?

Zelda 1. seriously. Zelda was always more popular than Mario.
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xyzzy
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/15/2006 11:12:35 PM | message detail
Speaking as someone who grew up during the snes era... I can't remember any point in time after getting lttp in which I held mario in higher regard than link. I used to be obsessed with that game, and still am to an extent.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/15/2006 11:13:24 PM | message detail
From dragoontheguy Posted 11/16/2006 2:12:35 AM #305
Speaking as someone who grew up during the snes era... I can't remember any point in time after getting lttp in which I held mario in higher regard than link. I used to be obsessed with that game, and still am to an extent.

Same.

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Squall: ...Flower.
JaKyL25 | Posted 11/15/2006 11:13:46 PM | message detail
Holy hell @ mario getting less then 10% of people predicting him falling out in round 2. That absolutely decimated the top fifty. I definitely prefer this way of finishing the contest to last years.

Decimated? Maybe in the extremely literal sense of "reducing something by 1/10th." I think only like 5 people fell off the leaderboard, because almost everyone who got it right wasn't within leaderboard reach.

Heck, I was #1 yesterday, got it wrong, and am still #1 today!
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Haste_2 | Posted 11/15/2006 11:13:56 PM | message detail
Yeah...I was expecting more people to have Mario around 5th place. I figure most are aware of the immense strength of Clinkeroth+Mario and all, especially since Mario won the bracket last year. But, sheesh...it 10% had Mario in 5th, probably 15% max had a Cinkeroth member getting 5th, which means 75+% had either the male champ or the female champ receiving Rank #5...and that means probably 85+% had either the male champ or female champ being Rank #6...considering about 55% had the female champ losing in the first Round, that means at least 30% had the male champ losing there...I would've expected a much greater proportion of the predictions for Rank #6 to have the female losing...I mean, Samus had a horrible prediction percentage at the end.

Well, that's my pointless, nonsensical rant on why I was surprised at Mario's low prediction percentage. :P

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dragoontheguy | Posted 11/15/2006 11:14:04 PM | message detail
Mario definitely has higher iconic status in among the gneeral public though. More non-gamers have definitely heard of mario, but on a site devoted to video games that means little.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/15/2006 11:15:25 PM | message detail
I dunno Tranny. It seemed to me Zelda didnt surpass Mario games in popularity till OoT. Mario had SMB3 back then during the NES days.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 11/15/2006 11:15:34 PM | message detail
Decimated? Maybe in the extremely literal sense of "reducing something by 1/10th." I think only like 5 people fell off the leaderboard, because almost everyone who got it right wasn't within leaderboard reach.

Heck, I was #1 yesterday, got it wrong, and am still #1 today!


I just looked at tre's list and assumed that meant they fell off. You mean to tell me even though these matches are worth a good 16 points or so, only ten people fell off the top fifty? I think that's worthy of an even bigger holy ****.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/15/2006 11:16:07 PM | message detail
Mario definitely has higher iconic status in among the gneeral public though. More non-gamers have definitely heard of mario, but on a site devoted to video games that means little.

That's about it.

Mario is more well-known than Link, and even then Link's not a nobody among the general public because of Zelda's huge popularity worldwide, but among people who are actual gamers, Link takes it pretty easy. Same for their respective series.

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
JaKyL25 | Posted 11/15/2006 11:17:03 PM | message detail
These matches are only worth 8 points, although you'll eventually lose out on at least 16 points if you get one pick wrong, for obvious reasons.
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Haste_2 | Posted 11/15/2006 11:17:23 PM | message detail
On a side note, I can't believe that all those guys actually had Snake making the finals, yet wouldn't even consider him over Mario... o_O Before the contest even started I believed Snake (but not Sonic, Mega Man, or Crono) would easily beat out Mario in the Battle Royale, if he somehow managed to make it there. I never would've dreamed of Solid Snake actually MAKING it there, though, having to go through Mega Man and the winner of Sonic/Crono...

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MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/15/2006 11:18:29 PM | message detail
1:30 -- 808
1:35 -- 818
1:40 -- 855
1:45 -- 850
1:50 -- 883
1:55 -- 911
2:00 -- 906
2:05 -- 883
2:10 -- 906
2:15 -- 917

AW YEAH !!

...Okay, I'm done with these!

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
transience | Posted 11/15/2006 11:19:39 PM | message detail
nah, Zelda was always the bigger game. it wasn't until Mario 3 that it was equal, and then LTTP > Mario World and OOT >> SM64.

don't make me bust out the Nintendo Power top 30 lists!
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xyzzy
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/15/2006 11:22:54 PM | message detail
How would Link vs Mega Man part 2 go? XD
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SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/15/2006 11:27:31 PM | message detail
Do you Link guys really get more enjoyment out of Link decimating people than you would a 50/50 match? ;/
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JaKyL25 | Posted 11/15/2006 11:27:46 PM | message detail
<Mega Man level-end music>

<Static full-body shot of Link>

LINK gained...Mega Blaster!

<Link turns Blue>
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/15/2006 11:28:21 PM | message detail
This is easily the best part of the contest for me. Forget all that other crap!

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/15/2006 11:30:05 PM | message detail
Let's see... best part of the contest for me? .... probably Sub-Zero > MC. =(
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/15/2006 11:31:02 PM | message detail
From SecksThaNemesis Posted 11/16/2006 2:27:31 AM #318
Do you Link guys really get more enjoyment out of Link decimating people than you would a 50/50 match? ;/

Well, yes! ;p

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
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Haste_2 | Posted 11/15/2006 11:32:27 PM | message detail
When I think about it, I don't think it's a coincidence that Mario did poorly in both the "Favorite Mario Character" polls and the Battle Royale.

I think the Zelda and Mario series had rather even popularity until Zelda: OoT... LoZ takes over until SMB3 comes out, then LoZ takes over again with Zelda: LttP, then Mario does it with Mario 64... after Zelda: OoT, though, Zelda clearly takes the cake as the #1 Nintendo series and never looks back.

As for Link, I don't think he was as popular as Mario even with avid gamers until Zelda: OoT... before then, he was always a basic, cartoony elf kid, and even his art was... meh. Link had a totally mainstream-appealing image in Zelda: OoT, though, and his art was fantastic, and I think it's that game that makes people like Link so much these days. I could be wrong, though.

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SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/15/2006 11:34:47 PM | message detail
And Link became more popular with OoT. You notice the only look people identify Link with is his adult one from OoT? There's a reason for that.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 11/15/2006 11:36:15 PM | message detail
Do you Link guys really get more enjoyment out of Link decimating people than you would a 50/50 match? ;/

Would you get more enjoyment out of sephiroth decimating cnake next year or a 50/50 match between the two? >_>

And I personally thought peach vs. jill was the match of the contest in terms of intensity, even if was early. Snake over sonic, and sonic over crono might have been more shocking, but as matches they weren't as exciting to watch. Peach proving herself as not being uber fodder, jill losing by 27 votes AGAIN, and the match being a nail biter until the last minute (well technically second last update, since before the last one it was obvious jill was too far behind to come back) all helped make it a great match..
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 11/15/2006 11:38:48 PM | message detail
Why is everyone so surprised about Link beating out Cloud+Sephiroth right now? With Snake in the poll I would certainly hope he could outdraw them, otherwise I'd be real worried about his chances against Cloud in the final.
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/15/2006 11:39:54 PM | message detail
And Link became more popular with OoT. You notice the only look people identify Link with is his adult one from OoT? There's a reason for that.

I think it's more a rejection of the kid link image. Part of what made link most gamers favoured character over mario in the first place was his badassery. This includes how he was in lttp and zelda 1. Even though it was a good game, it made link suffer as a character. His character design for one made him look like a complete idiot. I don't mind cel shading done right, and thought it was well done in WW, but when it came to links character design... all I can say is wtf was nintendo thinking?
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/15/2006 11:39:56 PM | message detail
As for Link, I don't think he was as popular as Mario even with avid gamers until Zelda: OoT... before then, he was always a basic, cartoony elf kid, and even his art was... meh. Link had a totally mainstream-appealing image in Zelda: OoT, though, and his art was fantastic, and I think it's that game that makes people like Link so much these days. I could be wrong, though.

Link became more popular than Mario the moment he unlocked the chest in the Swamp Palace and got the mother****ing Hookshot. Can anything ever compare to such a magnificent accessory? BOING!
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dragoontheguy | Posted 11/15/2006 11:41:28 PM | message detail
Why is everyone so surprised about Link beating out Cloud+Sephiroth right now? With Snake in the poll I would certainly hope he could outdraw them, otherwise I'd be real worried about his chances against Cloud in the final

We aren't surprised he's winning, were surprised by the extent he's winning. There's four character in the poll and he's still nearly 20% ahead of cloud.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
Haste_2 | Posted 11/15/2006 11:43:17 PM | message detail
I can't even think of an accessory that I like better than the hookshot at the moment.

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SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/15/2006 11:46:43 PM | message detail
Looks like Sephy's started to stall Snake already... this may not be over just yet.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/15/2006 11:47:39 PM | message detail
Taking the discussion away from Zelda for a second....

Am I the only one who likes the intro theme for the PS3/360 Sonic >_>?
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SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/15/2006 11:47:57 PM | message detail
I haven't heard it.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
E_Gadd | Posted 11/15/2006 11:49:26 PM | message detail
Also, another topic off Zelda, anyone notice today's PotD?


If you could only own one of the three next generation consoles, which would you choose?

PlayStation 3 31.99% 1526
Wii 50.23% 2396
Xbox 360 13.1% 625
I'm happy without any of them 4.68% 223
TOTAL VOTES 4770
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Gaddswell
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 11/15/2006 11:51:00 PM | message detail
We aren't surprised he's winning, were surprised by the extent he's winning. There's four character in the poll and he's still nearly 20% ahead of cloud.

I was responding to those surprised Link is beating Cloud and Sephiroth's combined total. I would certainly expect more of Snake's votes to go to Cloud rather than Link, meaning Link had damn well better be topping Cloud+Sephiroth right now.
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/15/2006 11:52:49 PM | message detail
Man, if Sephy can stall Snake all day like he did yesterday, he might be able to come back.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
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E_Gadd | Posted 11/15/2006 11:54:15 PM | message detail
I was responding to those surprised Link is beating Cloud and Sephiroth's combined total. I would certainly expect more of Snake's votes to go to Cloud rather than Link, meaning Link had damn well better be topping Cloud+Sephiroth right now.

Actually, from the looks of things, Snake and Link ended up splitting Mario's votes. I would say that, when Snake leaves, a fair amount of his votes would go to Link.
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Gaddswell
NoDiceCurt | Posted 11/15/2006 11:56:46 PM | message detail
Lol @ thinking a fair amount will go to Link.

It will be like this. Cloud + Seph + 75% of Snake's votes vs. Link + 25% of Snake's votes.

Enjoy.
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Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be.
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NoDiceCurt | Posted 11/15/2006 11:57:18 PM | message detail
Not to mention that Sephiroth is only 600 behind. That's not that much and he can easily make it up over the day.
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Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be.
-The biggest Sonic fan ever.-
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/15/2006 11:57:33 PM | message detail
The amount that Cloud may get from Snake is really not going to be any type of big majority. Snake seems to do better every time a Nintendo character goes down -- and that makes sense if his support comes from the SSBB trailers -- so I wouldn't really think a large portion are going to go Cloud's way. I'm expecting a split with a slight favor to Cloud.

Giving Cloud 100% of Sephiroth's votes, which he's not going to get, and then 2100 of Snake's total votes (a little over half of his 3677) ends up still putting him behind by a few hundred votes to Link. As always, a faulty method, but there ya go.

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/15/2006 11:57:41 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of Snake's votes went to Link, actually. o_o
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JaKyL25 | Posted 11/15/2006 11:58:20 PM | message detail
Question: Are non-prize-eligible brackets shown on the leaderboard?

If so, that increases my chances of some kind of prize!
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/16/2006 12:01:03 AM | message detail
I would certainly expect more of Snake's votes to go to Cloud rather than Link, meaning Link had damn well better be topping Cloud+Sephiroth right now.

I'm not so sure about this. Snake shot up considerably after Samus left and shot up again when Mario did. There may be a stronger connection between Solid Snake and Nintendo than most people think. Cloud will probably get a larger chunk of Snake's votes than Link, but it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 11/16/2006 12:01:41 AM | message detail
Giving Cloud 100% of Sephiroth's votes, which he's not going to get, and then 2100 of Snake's total votes (a little over half of his 3677) ends up still putting him behind by a few hundred votes to Link. As always, a faulty method, but there ya go.

Right. And if Link were behind Cloud+Sephiroth's total, he would end up losing to Cloud in that scenario. Which is why him being ahead right now should be expected.
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/16/2006 12:03:52 AM | message detail
Question: Are non-prize-eligible brackets shown on the leaderboard?

If so, that increases my chances of some kind of prize!


Yep. Considering most people will lose 16 points from today and tommorow and I'm guessing you have Link over Cloud, you're in a great position to win a prize.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/16/2006 12:10:38 AM | message detail
I just noticed that Link got his 20th contest victory yesterday!

Link 6-4-6-0-2-2 (20)
Samus 3-3-4-0-3-6 (19)
Mega 2-4-4-0-4-4 (18)
Snake 3-3-3-0-4-5 (18)
Seph 4-5-3-5-1-0 (18)
Crono 4-2-3-0-5-3 (17)
Mario 5-3-2-0-6-0 (16)
Sonic 2-3-3-0-3-4 (15)
Cloud 3-6-5-0-0-0 (14)

Cloud hasn't won a match since 2k4 and now has the fewest wins of all the members of the Noble Nine. Sephiroth would be even lower if he didn't have the 5 wins from the Villans contest. For a brief moment, Samus had the most wins, but Link's 2 BR wins put him back to first place.
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rpgapzx | Posted 11/16/2006 12:20:42 AM | message detail
I wonder how many characters even have 12 wins? or even 10? *glares at TRE*

Just kidding. If you don't do it I'll track it down. :D
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creativename | Posted 11/16/2006 12:50:41 AM | message detail
At 3:40 of Match 1, Sephiroth was at +.80% on Snake, and finished at +3.31%. That's a swing of 2.51%. In Match 2, he went from -1.54% at 3:45 to +.11% at the finish. That's a swing of 1.65%. Right now he's down just over 3%.

Soo...maybe it's not all that outlandish for Sephiroth to swing this? The first couple hours of this match Sephiroth wasn't gaining as fast as he did in the earlier matches, but he's picked it up recently.

It still seems doubtful, but not as impossible as it the first hour.
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MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/16/2006 1:12:55 AM | message detail
Does anyone remember at what point in video game history Link/Zelda took the top spot away from Mario and his games when it comes to Nintendo?

Never. A main Zelda game for a console has never outsolde it's Mario counterpart.
NES: Mario 1 > Mario 3 > LOZ
SNES: SMW > LTTP
N64: SM64 > OOT > MM
Gamecube: SMS > WW
Wii: TP > Galaxy ??
AKsellout | Posted 11/16/2006 2:17:50 AM | message detail
Yeah, Mario has always sold better than Zelda games. If sales are the ultimate judge of popularity, then Mario is the winner.
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