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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 431

LeonhartForever | Posted 11/15/2006 1:47:51 PM | message detail
Yep, this poll doesn't give me high hopes for Cloud's chances. Link will probably absorb most of Mario's votes (though Cloud seems like he'll be the second most benefitted, if it's like today), but even if he gets 100% of Snake's votes and 100% of Sephiroth's votes, that's still just 54.08% of the vote.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 11/15/2006 2:01:25 PM | message detail
Samus's votes were going to get to Link sooner or later. We were just assuming that they would split between Mario and Link and Link would absorb Mario later.
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/15/2006 2:15:10 PM | message detail
I'd say that Snake will go down tomorrow. Since he will be in SSBB, there is the potential for Link to SFF him, which will cause Snake to miss out on some votes and possibly allow Sephiroth to make it past tomorrow.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 11/15/2006 2:16:53 PM | message detail
If Snake was susceptible to being SFFed by Link, wouldn't he have been SFFed already? How exactly is he going to miss out on votes tomorrow?

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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
Master Moltar | Posted 11/15/2006 2:18:04 PM | message detail
What the hell at Mario doing WORSE with Samus gone? Link is a damn beast...swallowing up nearly all of Samus's votes.

Seems Snake got some too...and he's beating Seph?! Oh man, tommorrow's going to be pretty interesting!

I also wonder if my alt bracket had Snake outlasting Mario...
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Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Battle Royale Day 2 - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (160/200)
MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/15/2006 2:21:23 PM | message detail
Over or under, Link gets 45% of the votes tomorrow. I think I'd take under, but not by much.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/15/2006 2:22:15 PM | message detail
Wow, I'm loving Link over here. :)
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/15/2006 2:25:56 PM | message detail
I've always said that if you appear in something like Smash Bros., you're just asking for Link to SFF you. It's his fanbase -- forget just Nintendo -- and Cloud appearing there is only going to help him against non-Nintendo characters. He'd lose that support when he went up against Link.

Just like Kirby lost all of his support against Bowser? Don't be silly. Cloud would keep plenty of that support against Link. Even half of the support he gained from SSBB would likely be enough to beat Link.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/15/2006 2:29:53 PM | message detail
...No. You cannot possibly compare Bowser to Link when it comes to dominating the fanbase. Link takes away everyone's votes if they have even the slightest hint of connection to Nintendo.

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/15/2006 2:41:06 PM | message detail
...But he wouldn't do that to Cloud. It's ridiculous to assume that he'd get SFF'd by anything.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Master Moltar | Posted 11/15/2006 2:45:18 PM | message detail
So, what's the consensus for tommorrow? It seems that more of Mario's votes would go to Link and maybe Snake over Cloud or Seph.

Oh God, Snake > Seph in the BR would kick so much ass.
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Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Battle Royale Day 2 - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (160/200)
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/15/2006 2:47:28 PM | message detail
No, Mario's votes go to Cloud before they go to Snake, I figure. Maybe I'm wrong though. Actually, I hope I am. Solid Snake needs all of the help he can get. It'd actually make the 4th day more interesting because we'll see how close Cloud and Link are without having their votes SFF'd off, and then we just speculate about how much Snake splits!
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 2:47:29 PM | message detail
Sephiroth was projected to beat Snake today slightly at like, 10 AM. But now Snake is projected to win with less than .1%.

The day was not as kind to Sephiroth today.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/15/2006 2:50:56 PM | message detail
...No. You cannot possibly compare Bowser to Link when it comes to dominating the fanbase. Link takes away everyone's votes if they have even the slightest hint of connection to Nintendo.

The only scenario in which he managed to SFF 50% of someone's strength was against Ganon. Again, I'm not arguing that Cloud's SSBB-power wouldn't be SFF'd...just not more than half of it.

No, Mario's votes go to Cloud before they go to Snake, I figure.

More of Samus's went to Snake than Cloud, why would Mario be different?
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/15/2006 2:52:04 PM | message detail
Ehh, just a gut feeling I have, for some reason.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/15/2006 2:52:28 PM | message detail
Although, not that it particularly matters, as Link is going to suck up 80% of them anyway.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 2:53:27 PM | message detail
We don't even know if any of Samus's went to Cloud's. He's doing less than 1% better, and with Sephiroth doing worse, it could just be the ole switcharoo.

Though I think Samus and Mario will be a bit different in where their votes lies. If your favorite character is Samus, then, well, you're pretty much guaranteed to be a Nintendo fan. But Mario has iconic status, which means that Mario can be your favorite character without having such a hard-on for Nintendo. I think his votes should be spread around slightly more than Samus's. Of course, Link will probably still gobble up half of them. Probably more than half.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/15/2006 3:06:48 PM | message detail
If you like Mario, you might not be as likely to be a Nintendo fan. But, if your favourite character is Mario, then I think you've very likely to be a Nintendo fan. Now, this isn't a pure favourites poll, but I wouldn't be surprised if the distribution of Mario's votes tomorrow is as lopsided in Link's favour as Samus' votes today.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/15/2006 3:09:00 PM | message detail
Sephiroth doing pretty well now. Snake's only ahead of him by 399 now.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/15/2006 3:10:16 PM | message detail
How do the vote totals look here in comparison to the last match?
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 3:22:59 PM | message detail
We seem to be projected for 141,500 votes.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/15/2006 3:24:10 PM | message detail
Ah. I was hoping that the final match would break a record, but if this gets lower votes everyday... =(
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/15/2006 3:26:19 PM | message detail
"We seem to be projected for 141,500 votes."


Man I cant wait to see how much Link vs Cloud gets. Day before TP and on a weekend...

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Can't think of a good sig.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 3:31:07 PM | message detail
Sephiroth Vs. Snake is going to go down to the wire. Too bad today doesn't matter for them. I hope it's this close tomorrow.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/15/2006 3:35:09 PM | message detail
Nah, Seph's still got 5 and a half hours, and if he keeps this pace up he'll be Snake easily....

tomorrow though, if Snake has a potentially larger lead, it could REALLY go down to the wire.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 3:37:07 PM | message detail
Sephiroth only improved .16% from here til the end yesterday while Snake only fell .14

If you put them together, you 14.85% Vs. 14.84% in favor of Sephiroth
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/15/2006 3:38:36 PM | message detail
Of course Seph's pace could slow down quite a bit, I imagine... hopefully that isn't the case, though!
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
trannyscience | Posted 11/15/2006 3:39:02 PM | message detail
it's not like it matters who edges who out here.. the real fun starts tomorrow.

kinda surprising to see Mario get owned like this.
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zizzy
RockMFR 5 | Posted 11/15/2006 4:43:26 PM | message detail
WTF @ characters dropping in percentage
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O RLY? ALVEOLA RLY! o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
Haste_2 | Posted 11/15/2006 5:15:35 PM | message detail
I think the answer to Mario and Sephiroth doing is worse is the smaller vote totals today. I think fans of different characters tend to have various levels of ignorance with GameFAQs contests...so, the fans of Mario or Sephiroth are the most common of those who didn't bother voting for the second day of the Battle Royale, either thinking it's the same poll, or they just don't care to vote again, but they couldn't resist voting in a Battle Royale match at least once. I wouldn't want to say that Mario isn't sucking up ANY of Samus' past votes...maybe you could even say Sephiroth and Mario were hurt equally by the lower vote totals, and Mario actually benefited 1-2% more from Samus' votes yesterday than Sephiroth.

Also, I say part of the reason Link might be doing so much better today is that we're one day closer to the Wii launch with Zelda: TP...if you had a 6-character battle every day this week, I wouldn't be surprised if Link jumped noticeably each day. In fact, maybe it's not even the fault of the vote totals so much as it is people just getting more excited about Zelda: TP that's boosting Link so much, and seemingly hurting the other characters, come to think of it. When you think about it, factors like hype should have a much bigger impact for a character in the Battle Royale than in a normal contest match. Just a crazy theory, though...

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Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/15/2006 5:16:54 PM | message detail
If these %'s stay the same way for tomorrow, it looks like EC's Link > Cloud > Snake > Seph > Mario > Samus inequality might not be so crazy after all!

Oh, and for everyone thinking this is so amazing for Link... I really don't think it is. It's good no doubt, but Cloud definitely still has a very good shot at winning. I'd be surprised if Cloud didn't get 95%+ of Seph's votes, and a very significant majority of Snake's.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/15/2006 5:21:17 PM | message detail
Oh, and for everyone thinking this is so amazing for Link... I really don't think it is

That's EC for ya!

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/15/2006 5:22:05 PM | message detail
*being right for you.
lololol ge it
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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/15/2006 5:55:44 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
creativename | Posted 11/15/2006 6:02:03 PM | message detail
Tomorrow's the first real mystery of the Battle Royal so far - who'll be booted, Snake or Sephiroth?

It's looking like a toss-up right now, with Sephiroth probably looking a bit more likely. I hope Sephiroth stays in though. Both out of my own rooting interest, and also because Link vs. Cloud vs. Sephiroth is a much more dramatic match than Link/Cloud/Snake - the three pieces of Clinkeroth facing each other is a very interesting scenario. Sort of like the three pieces of the Triforce.
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trannyscience | Posted 11/15/2006 6:06:44 PM | message detail
dramatic? it'll be a slaughter no matter what happens if you ask me. I think Snake as the third might be the most interesting possibility (just to see how he does vs. the two heavyweights), but neither will bring the result into question.
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zizzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/15/2006 6:12:23 PM | message detail
Snake benefitting a lot from Samus's exit kind of proves that his boost was Nintendo-related this year. With Mario out, Snake may go up even more.

On day 1, Sephy made a comeback en route to beating Snake easily. Without Samus, Sephy may BARELY squeak by Snake. Without Mario, Sephy might get killed.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/15/2006 6:24:39 PM | message detail
"Snake benefitting a lot from Samus's exit kind of proves that his boost was Nintendo-related this year."


So what does that say about whos getting his votes when hes eliminated?

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Can't think of a good sig.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/15/2006 6:26:35 PM | message detail
I think Snake will likely beat Sephy tomorrow, though I'm hoping he doesn't. Tomorrow is basically FF7 vs Nintendo.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/15/2006 6:46:14 PM | message detail
It took him 21 hours and 30 minutes into the poll but Sephiroth is finally ahead of Snake.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/15/2006 6:48:29 PM | message detail
Never knew you were a Sephiroth fan, Ulti.

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
shadow8021 | Posted 11/15/2006 6:49:12 PM | message detail
"Tomorrow is basically FF7 vs Nintendo."

When ISN'T it FF7 vs. Nintendo?
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Character Battle Score: 164/200
Today's Vote: Mario
Mumei | Posted 11/15/2006 6:51:24 PM | message detail
I hope Sephiroth wins. Link vs. Sephiroth vs. Cloud piques my interest much more than Link vs. Cloud vs. Snake does.

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived"- Sensei, "Kokoro"
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 11/15/2006 6:52:07 PM | message detail
Does that mean you're going to vote for Sephiroth tomorrow, Moo-may?
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
Haste_2 | Posted 11/15/2006 6:56:36 PM | message detail
Sephiroth needs high vote totals?

2K3: Sephiroth gets 48% on Cloud.
2K4: Sephiroth merely gets 44% on Cloud with worse vote totals, and the matches against Vivi and Auron seem to verify a weaker a Sephiroth...yes, they were all SFF matches, but if you boost Sephiroth up, it means Vivi dropped the next year, so I think leaving Sephiroth alone is a better idea.
Sp2K5: Unclear...Sephiroth definitely didn't look so hot, though, and vote totals were pitiful.
2K5: Sephiroth goes back up to 2K3 levels, basically.

This year? Sephiroth does worse today than he did yesterday with less competition, and it looks like we'll be almost 20,000 votes short of yesterday.

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Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/15/2006 6:57:38 PM | message detail
From KamikazePotato Posted 11/15/2006 9:48:29 PM #141
Never knew you were a Sephiroth fan, Ulti.

Huge Sephy fan. I'm just not annoying about it like Ex is.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FF5A, Castlevania: LoI
Mumei | Posted 11/15/2006 7:04:02 PM | message detail
Ex, if you had read Berserk like a good little boy, I might have.

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived"- Sensei, "Kokoro"
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/15/2006 7:45:17 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb566.jpg

Looks like everybody's standard picture there. Link definitely stands out with that bright green among all the darker colors !!

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"I'll bet you my left arm that Commander Keen makes it to the next contest!"
Kaxon | Posted 11/15/2006 7:45:20 PM | message detail
It's looking like a toss-up right now, with Sephiroth probably looking a bit more likely. I hope Sephiroth stays in though. Both out of my own rooting interest, and also because Link vs. Cloud vs. Sephiroth is a much more dramatic match than Link/Cloud/Snake - the three pieces of Clinkeroth facing each other is a very interesting scenario. Sort of like the three pieces of the Triforce.

I have to disagree with you there - I think Link vs Cloud vs Snake would be a lot more interesting than Link vs Cloud vs Sephiroth. Link vs Cloud vs Sephiroth is basically the lite version of Link vs Cloud, whereas with Snake there's a much bigger question about how his votes will split between Link and Cloud.
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....TCELES B HSUP
Kaxon | Posted 11/15/2006 7:46:47 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb566.jpg

Heh. The Mario and Samus sprites are a funny touch, although in terms of actual quality I'd say they make the picture worse.
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....TCELES B HSUP