GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 431
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/14/2006 7:16:40 PM | message detail |
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My BR is Link > Cloud > Seph > Male > Mario > Female Man, if I hadn't screwed up the main bracket so much... :( *Creativename's websites* Everything you could ever imagine: http://www.GameFAQsContests.com http://www.sc2k5.com http://www.sc2k4.com Sortable Table for Every Contest Match: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19 *Extrapolated Standings* Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11 Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left): http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ *Solarshadow's Sites* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating) http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html *Old Stats topics* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note) 2003-2004 Off-Season: http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note) Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL. Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm *Match Pictures* All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones! http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php *Miscellaneous* Creativename's Page of Links: http://sc2k4.com/links.php UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language): http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language): http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches: http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists: http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251 HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 TRE's poll listing (every poll!): http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html Aprosenf's Poll Script: http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt GameFAQs' Top 100 Games (down for now, so here's a new link): http://transience.paragonsigma.com/top100.txt Manual Poll Updater: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 7:17:10 PM | message detail |
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Too bad Mario's outlasting Snake! --- Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt! Battle Royale Day 1 - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (152/192) |
| Heroic Knuckles | Posted 11/15/2006 4:03:08 AM | message detail |
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SNAKE > SEPHIROTH --- I want a sandwich. |
| consolefreak | Posted 11/15/2006 4:05:30 AM | message detail |
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Ah crap. So much for that top 50 finish. Ah well, back to enjoying the contest preference-wise. Go Snake! --- CB2k6: 180/200. Battle Royale: Samus < Snake < Mario < Sephiroth < Cloud < Link |
| cyko | Posted 11/15/2006 4:39:14 AM | message detail |
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hmph. i really expected Mario and Link to split the votes that Samus
got, but it looks like Link is actually getting the majority of them.
so, if Mario falls this round, Link will probably get nearly all of his
votes as well. --- i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest. Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!! |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 4:41:50 AM | message detail |
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Seriously. Link's getting, what, like over 80% of Samus's votes? That's freaking insane. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 4:43:45 AM | message detail |
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Do you think Mario's case will be the same? Or maybe Link will be in the mood to share tomorrow. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| zwong1 | Posted 11/15/2006 4:45:14 AM | message detail |
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Do you think Mario's case will be the same? Or maybe Link will be in the mood to share tomorrow. I think Link will maybe get 70-80% of Mario votes. If that really happens then i can conclude that Nintendo fans are quite united. --- I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest. |
| Cronolookalike | Posted 11/15/2006 5:03:58 AM | message detail |
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Link / Crono have just about taken all of samus' votes from yesterday.
Snake is also syphoning votes from mario and seph though... % changes Cloud Strife 0.85% Link 6.98% Mario -0.47% Sephiroth -2.08% Solid Snake 2.46% --- Most of our imports come from other countries. ~ George W. Bush |
| zwong1 | Posted 11/15/2006 5:07:38 AM | message detail |
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Link / Crono have just about taken all of samus' votes from yesterday Do you mean Cloud. Btw, i think it is Sephiroth that is giving his votes to Cloud. People who votes for Sephiroth in the first day found out that Cloud stood a better chance against Link after checking the result and therefore some of them jump ship and switch to voting Cloud today so Cloud can prove to be a stronger force against Link. I think this explanation is better than Snake Syphoning votes away from Sephiroth. --- I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest. |
| Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/15/2006 5:09:29 AM | message detail |
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"Do you mean Cloud. Btw, i think it is
Sephiroth that is giving his votes to Cloud. People who votes for
Sephiroth in the first day found out that Cloud stood a better chance
against Link after checking the result and therefore some of them jump
ship and switch to voting Cloud today so Cloud can prove to be a
stronger force against Link. I think this explanation is better than
Snake Syphoning votes away from Sephiroth." That might work if it wasn't for the fact that Link is beating Cloud even worse than yesterday. >_> --- Can't think of a good sig. |
| Cronolookalike | Posted 11/15/2006 5:12:41 AM | message detail |
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yea, meant cloud. @ work this morning at 7am, after 4 hrs sleep and our
first home basketball game last night... today's going to last an
eternity I said link / cloud since they increased by about 7.83% which is remarkably similar to samus' end result. --- Most of our imports come from other countries. ~ George W. Bush |
| zwong1 | Posted 11/15/2006 5:13:44 AM | message detail |
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That might work if it wasn't for the fact that Link is beating Cloud even worse than yesterday. >_> Maybe most of the Samus votes went to Link. --- I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 5:16:04 AM | message detail |
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You compared current %s to the end of match %s. It would be better to
use the same time. In which case, the difference would be Cloud +0.81 Link +7.32 Mario +0.09 Sephiroth -1.47 Snake +1.61 Mario is pretty much identical to before. Sephiroth is doing a little worse than Cloud is doing better, but that could just be random variance. And Snake has gone up for whatever reason. Samus votes? Maybe. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/15/2006 5:16:33 AM | message detail |
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But Sephiroth got more votes than Samus. --- Can't think of a good sig. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 5:17:20 AM | message detail |
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Oh, and Link is pretty self-explanatory. Sucking up all of Samus's votes seems likely --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Crimson Dragoon | Posted 11/15/2006 5:19:06 AM | message detail |
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Snake has ate an entire warehouse full of steroids... Which of course begs the question: How in the hell did he lose to Samus? --- ~FFDragon (at work !!) FFDragoon, now with the blood of the mods stained to his armor and dripping from his lance. |
| stuzzie | Posted 11/15/2006 5:19:07 AM | message detail |
| I think Link will win over Cloud in the last round with Snake as 3th.. |
| zwong1 | Posted 11/15/2006 5:19:46 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| Cronolookalike | Posted 11/15/2006 5:20:37 AM | message detail |
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yea i was lazy and didn't want to look up the same time numbers, I figured that a rough hash would have been close enough snake is doing well, I'm almost doubting my: link > cloud > seph > male > mario > female picks Granted i set it up this way with samus and crono winning, but whatever, its working now --- Most of our imports come from other countries. ~ George W. Bush |
| Cronolookalike | Posted 11/15/2006 5:22:07 AM | message detail |
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Crimson Dragoon | Posted 11/15/2006 8:19:06 AM How in the hell did he lose to Samus? the nintendo rally of course, with no link or mario to support, they're going to rally around the strongest character in the main bracket, that being samus. --- Most of our imports come from other countries. ~ George W. Bush |
| zwong1 | Posted 11/15/2006 5:22:07 AM | message detail |
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But Sephiroth got more votes than Samus. I think you got my point wrong. I say only maybe some(1.5-2%) of the Sephiroth fans will jump ship and vote for Cloud. --- I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest. |
| Cronolookalike | Posted 11/15/2006 5:22:59 AM | message detail |
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^ sweet, first same time post evar mine anyways... --- Most of our imports come from other countries. ~ George W. Bush |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 5:23:12 AM | message detail |
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The fact that Snake seems to have improved a bit with Samus's absence
might imply that Snake did in fact do worse against Samus than he
"should have" given his other matches --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Who Cares? | Posted 11/15/2006 5:46:15 AM | message detail |
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My BR is Link > Cloud > Seph > Male > Mario > Female Man, if I hadn't screwed up the main bracket so much... :( QFT! I picked Sonic for the 'Male" slot. --- *Go play Tales of the Abyss* |
| Redtooth | Posted 11/15/2006 5:51:06 AM | message detail |
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My BR is Link > Cloud > Seph > Male > Mario > Female Man, if I hadn't screwed up the main bracket so much... :( From what I saw in the guru, we have very similar brackets, and I do feel your pain. If I hadn't gotten both Snake and Sonic wrong, I think I could contend for a prize >_< --- Z1mZum>Redtooth Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7 |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 6:05:26 AM | message detail |
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At the 9:00 update yesterday, Cloud has decreased in % by .02 while Seph increased by .08 Today, Cloud increased by .05 while Seph decreased by .03 I think Seph's poor performance really can be blamed mostly on Cloud today. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/15/2006 6:06:39 AM | message detail |
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QFT! I picked Sonic for the 'Male" slot. Have we figured out yet if people get points for having the male champion wrong, but have the male champion going out at the right place in the BR? --- "Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 6:10:34 AM | message detail |
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Well, it says over 50% got Samus "right" in the Battle Royale and only
about 40% picked her as the female bracket winner. So I would venture a
yes. But I don't know for sure. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Who Cares? | Posted 11/15/2006 6:12:30 AM | message detail |
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Have we figured out yet if people get points for having the male
champion wrong, but have the male champion going out at the right place
in the BR? Uhh, yes, I was stating where I screwed up in my main bracket with Sonic winning the male half. --- *Go play Tales of the Abyss* |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/15/2006 6:15:37 AM | message detail |
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Well, it says over 50% got Samus "right" in the Battle Royale and
only about 40% picked her as the female bracket winner. So I would
venture a yes. But I don't know for sure. Yeah, that makes sense. It seems kind of odd, but I guess that's what CJayC wanted to do, for whatever reason. --- "Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 6:25:46 AM | message detail |
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If you use the same patterns as yesterday, the match is expected to end like this Cloud: 24.61%(+0.90) Link: 34.73%(+7.32) Mario: 11.56%(-0.03) Sephiroth: 14.88%(-1.55) Snake: 14.75%(+1.63) Yeah, I know it actually adds up to slightly over 100 >_> --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| gonf | Posted 11/15/2006 8:22:39 AM | message detail |
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I voted Samus yesterday and Mario today and both lost. ;_; Who should I vote for tomorrow? Maybe Snake as it would be nice if he beats Sephiroth or maybe Link as it would be fun seeing him surpass 50% tomorrow. --- Most wanted game: LoZ: TP |
| NoDiceCurt | Posted 11/15/2006 8:27:30 AM | message detail |
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Actually if you use the pattern from yesterday Snake goes down and Sephiroth goes up. Mistake FTW. --- Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be. -The biggest Sonic fan ever.- |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/15/2006 8:29:25 AM | message detail |
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The Snake/Sephiroth elimination is going to be damn close tomorrow. --- CB5 Points: 139/200, Current Oracle placement: 21/170 Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/15/2006 8:40:05 AM | message detail |
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The fact that Snake seems to have improved a bit with Samus's
absence might imply that Snake did in fact do worse against Samus than
he "should have" given his other matches Score one for lol Kay Aitch stats! And Snake has a damn good shot at outlasting Sephiroth tomorrow, too. He won't stay ahead today (though it won't be by much), but I'd expect him to benefit more from Mario's absence than Sephiroth. Gut feeling. << --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/15/2006 8:44:30 AM | message detail |
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Also, WTF @ Mario/Sephiroth doing worse today despite having a competitor taken out. lol random variation --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| NoDiceCurt | Posted 11/15/2006 8:49:30 AM | message detail |
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How are they doing a lot worse today? --- Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be. -The biggest Sonic fan ever.- |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/15/2006 8:50:23 AM | message detail |
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He didn't say a lot. --- CB5 Points: 139/200, Current Oracle placement: 21/170 Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana |
| JaKyL25 | Posted 11/15/2006 8:51:02 AM | message detail |
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I was so happy to discover that I did have the female champion out first that Mario losing next really is a let-down to me. I think my chances of a top-10 finish are better if it's not just Mario and Male Winner swapping places, but rather the bracket chaos provided by Snake > Seph > Mario. I'd lose 8 more points that way, but I'd have to imagine that almost everyone within 24 points of me would lose at least 16 points under that scenario, whereas a few might go perfect if Seph > Snake > Mario. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/15/2006 8:53:52 AM | message detail |
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Nah, if I had picked Snake as my male champion (was *so* close to doing
it too) I would have had him going out third. I can't imagine someone
out there doesn't have that same thought process -- specifically that
he'd escape most of the SFF fest that goes on here. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 11/15/2006 8:54:59 AM | message detail |
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Samus SFF'd Snake and this poll proves it!! Seriously though, how Sephiroth is doing WORSE today than he did yesterday is mind-boggling. I suppose it's possible that a lot of people who voted for somebody other than Samus just changed their votes around, for whatever the reason. ...Perhaps the Sephiroth fans who also happen to be Snake fans switched their votes around so he could outlast Mario, confident that Sephiroth would still be here tomorrow. Beats me. --- "A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake "I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic |
| JaKyL25 | Posted 11/15/2006 8:55:25 AM | message detail |
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Oh I can imagine that SOMEONE out there does, but I'm just hoping that 10 out of ~200 that can catch me don't. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/15/2006 8:57:16 AM | message detail |
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The fact that Snake seems to have improved a bit with Samus's
absence might imply that Snake did in fact do worse against Samus than
he "should have" given his other matches Likewise, the fact that Cloud seems to have benefited from Samus's absense might imply that Samus did worse than she "should have" against Cloud in 2k4, and was underrated even then. --- "Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/15/2006 8:58:40 AM | message detail |
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Oh god, don't even start talking about underrated Samus, you'll attract EC in here... --- CB5 Points: 139/200, Current Oracle placement: 21/170 Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 11/15/2006 8:58:58 AM | message detail |
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...Cloud is benefitting from Samus being gone? Well, nothing major, but either way, if you don't think the entire Noble Nine has a sizable overlap anyway, I don't know what to tell you. They're the nine most popular characters for a reason. --- "A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake "I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic |
| syco_coaster | Posted 11/15/2006 8:59:26 AM | message detail |
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"I think Link will maybe get 70-80% of Mario votes. If that really
happens then i can conclude that Nintendo fans are quite united." Give that man a medal. I will vote Mario until he's gone, then Link. That's the swing of things. And it's probably exactly the same for people like me. After Mario's gone (probably today), I bet you'll see Link win by a lot more until it's down to him and Cloud. Because I seriously doubt that Sephiroth is taking any more than .1% of Link's future votes. He's only taking from Cloud, and maybe from Snake. (Big Maybe) Maybe it would be to my advantage to vote Snake, so that I help my bracket out.... --- Ask not what fellow GameFAQs members can do for you, But what you can do to fellow GameFAQs members. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/15/2006 9:00:12 AM | message detail |
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Heh, I'm not suggesting it means anything, I'm just saying that using
this as evidence that Samus rSFF'd Snake is kinda ridiculous. --- "Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/15/2006 9:00:50 AM | message detail |
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I'm more perplexed with how Mario is doing. At this rate he'll be doing
very good just to get more than he had yesterday, which means that he
got virtually nothing from Samus' absence. For as bad as he SFFed her and as much as she seemed to evade SFF against Link...yeesh. I'm going back and calling Link/Samus a fluke, BTW. No way does Samus even crack 35% on Link anymore, and I wouldn't be particularly shocked if she fell below 30%. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 11/15/2006 9:01:33 AM | message detail |
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Well, my post was more in jest than anything. I think what I said is
more likely, personally. People DO pay attention to the results of
polls, and changing votes to benefit characters that they may like but
may not necessarily be their favorites isn't out there. We see it
happen around here all the time. --- "A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake "I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic |
