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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 430

Team Rocket Elite (36) | Board List | Topic List | Topic Closed

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MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 9:31:39 PM | message detail

!!

Mario to pass Sephiroth!

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess

JaKyL25 | Posted 11/14/2006 9:33:16 PM | message detail

Selfishly, I'm actually only slightly concerned if Sephiroth or Mario were to lose today instead of Snake.

I think the prediction percentage on that would be rather low, especially if it was Seph that got booted. I might not drop very far, and I'm fine with a Top 10 finish.
---
Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.

MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/14/2006 9:34:52 PM | message detail

IIRC, I think I have Seph losing today.

transience | Posted 11/14/2006 9:36:02 PM | message detail

remember, a miss here is actually worth 16 points. if you don't have a perfect BR, you're not going to win a thing.
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xyzzy

BDawg | Posted 11/14/2006 9:36:33 PM | message detail

Seeing Sephy's hilariously bad board vote (I mean basically he gained during the entire rest of the poll yesterday) makes me miss seeing him in the regular bracket.
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Should I start running now?

TrueHeroComplex | Posted 11/14/2006 9:36:40 PM | message detail

I think it's the other way around. Mario isn't taking in nearly as many votes as he should be. Link is getting all of Samus' votes and most of Mario's.
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A hero is a man who is afraid to run away.
-The biggest Sonic fan ever.-

cdw01 | Posted 11/14/2006 9:37:23 PM | message detail

I have Crono losing today. <_< If Snake ends up losing, does that still count or not?

ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/14/2006 9:38:33 PM | message detail

I'm hoping Sephiroth can pull what he did yesterday after the first hour and pass Snake... and I hope Snake doesn't get as much of Mario's support like he did with Samus.
---
New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3

JaKyL25 | Posted 11/14/2006 9:39:09 PM | message detail

remember, a miss here is actually worth 16 points. if you don't have a perfect BR, you're not going to win a thing.

Should it turn out that Mario finishes 5th, Sephiroth 4th, and Snake 3rd, I would actually lose out on 24 points, and there are only ~150 people within 24 points of me.

Would more than 9 have THAT combo correct? Who would have seen it coming?
---
Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.

HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2006 9:39:17 PM | message detail

Hey, just for fun, Link got more votes yesterday against five other Noble Nine'rs than the following got all contest:

64 - Carmen Sandiego
63 - Princess Daisy
62 - Soma Cruz
61 - CATS
60 - Nidoran F
59 - Alyx Vance
58 - Jade
57 - Roll
56 - Lenneth Valkyrie
55 - Captain Falcon
54 - Ivy Valentine
53 - Tingle
52 - Tidus
51 - Kasumi
50 - Marle
49 - Axel
48 - Amy Rose
47 - Cortana
46 - Kerrigan
45 - Alucard
44 - Ryu Hayabsua
43 - Celes Chere
42 - Sheena

Cloud outdid everybody from Amy Rose down, Sephiroth from Roll down, Solid Snake from CATS, Mario only outdid Princess Daisy and Carmen Sandiego...and Samus didn't outdo any of them.

Just a fun-fact.
---
Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!

transience | Posted 11/14/2006 9:39:41 PM | message detail

even if he doesn't, he'll be all right. really, this isn't a done deal - Snake is going to suffer pretty badly during the daytime and Mario could very well pass him. Sephiroth is also pretty good with the day vote.
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xyzzy

Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/14/2006 9:39:42 PM | message detail

Score-Brackets-% Right
188----1--------100.0000000
187----1--------100.0000000
186----0--------N/A
185----1--------100.0000000
184----2--------100.0000000
183----3--------33.3333333
182----5--------40.0000000
181----6--------N/A
180----5--------60.0000000
179----10-------10.0000000
178----16-------6.2500000
177----21-------42.8571429
176----15-------26.6666667
175----31-------32.2580645
174----13-------38.4615385
173----17-------17.6470588
172----29-------31.0344828
171----19-------26.3157895
170----29-------20.6896552
169----30-------30.0000000
168----36-------30.5555556
167----48-------22.9166667
166----37-------29.7297297
165----47-------31.9148936
164----55-------47.2727273
163----50-------36.0000000
162----50-------36.0000000
161----72-------34.7222222
160----59-------30.5084746
159----69-------39.1304348
158----69-------27.5362319
157----60-------43.3333333
156----85-------45.8823529
155----123------52.0325203
154----106------41.5094340
153----133------50.3759398
152----130------46.1538462
151----137------44.5255474
150----106------44.3396226
149----110------44.5454545
148----116------41.3793103
147----125------45.6000000
146----121------45.4545455
145----139------40.2877698
144----112------51.7857143
143----117------53.8461538
142----150------55.3333333
141----164------54.2682927
140----152------50.6578947
139----153------51.6339869
138----141------51.0638298
137----155------54.1935484
136----150------43.3333333
135----169------62.1301775
134----178------51.1235955
133----164------59.7560976
132----215------59.5348837
131----197------61.4213198
130----210------64.7619048
129----224------64.7321429
128----230------63.4782609
127----264------68.5606061
126----267------69.6629213
125----294------64.9659864
124----306------72.8758170
123----333------70.8708709
122----350------74.2857143
121----385------69.3506494
120----369------75.0677507
119----371------70.3504043
118----396------72.4747475
117----406------73.3990148
116----368------71.1956522
115----359------66.8523677
114----422------68.2464455
113----401------70.8229426
112----442------69.4570136
111----415------71.3253012
110----443------69.5259594
109----424------70.2830189
108----474------67.5105485
107----464------67.2413793
106----446------65.0224215
105----485------67.8350515
104----439------66.9703872
103----478------68.8284519
102----502------66.1354582
101----469------64.3923241
100----485------62.6804124
99-----444------61.9369369
98-----486------69.9588477
97-----460------62.3913043
96-----491------63.3401222
95-----526------67.3003802
94-----499------61.1222445
93-----467------62.0985011
92-----521------62.3800384
91-----484------62.8099174
90-----517------59.1876209
89-----532------59.0225564
88-----502------58.1673307
87-----504------59.1269841
86-----493------60.6490872
85-----505------58.8118812
84-----507------60.7495069
83-----507------59.5660750
82-----484------56.8181818
81-----544------60.1102941
80-----539------57.1428571
79-----526------52.8517110
78-----476------51.0504202
77-----485------52.5773196
76-----495------57.9797980
75-----473------54.7568710
74-----495------50.5050505
73-----471------49.8938429
72-----494------50.2024291
71-----500------55.0000000
70-----470------51.0638298
69-----438------49.0867580
68-----447------48.0984340
67-----455------50.7692308
66-----407------50.3685504
65-----421------46.7933492
64-----427------47.7751756
63-----431------48.0278422
62-----441------47.3922902
61-----407------49.3857494
60-----387------44.4444444
59-----382------49.2146597
58-----378------46.8253968

Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/14/2006 9:39:46 PM | message detail

57-----353------47.8753541
56-----347------38.6167147
55-----356------44.1011236
54-----325------46.7692308
53-----328------39.3292683
52-----311------43.0868167
51-----312------36.5384615
50-----298------42.9530201
49-----292------36.3013699
48-----289------38.4083045
47-----254------33.0708661
46-----284------40.4929577
45-----242------39.6694215
44-----229------28.3842795
43-----225------30.2222222
42-----187------36.8983957
41-----162------33.9506173
40-----169------31.9526627
39-----131------33.5877863
38-----115------30.4347826
37-----132------28.0303030
36-----85-------35.2941176
35-----90-------35.5555556
34-----68-------35.2941176
33-----51-------19.6078431
32-----46-------28.2608696
31-----58-------31.0344828
30-----48-------27.0833333
29-----31-------29.0322581
28-----35-------28.5714286
27-----18-------38.8888889
26-----22-------31.8181818
25-----17-------23.5294118
24-----18-------38.8888889
23-----11-------18.1818182
22-----8--------25.0000000
21-----6--------50.0000000
20-----4--------25.0000000
19-----2--------50.0000000
18-----3--------0.0000000
17-----5--------20.0000000
16-----2--------0.0000000
15-----4--------25.0000000
14-----3--------0.0000000
13-----6--------33.3333333
12-----4--------0.0000000
11-----9--------22.2222222
10-----3--------33.3333333
9------13-------23.0769231
8------26-------23.0769231
7------35-------17.1428571
6------47-------17.0212766
5------56-------12.5000000
4------34-------2.9411765
3------23-------4.3478261
2------21-------4.7619048

Overall prediction percentage: 55.68%

As you might expect, people who had the Female champion beating the Male Champion weren't as likely to have Samus go out in the first round. Although the -4, -5, -7 and -8s got it perfect, the prediction percentage than took a dive. Only one of the ten -13s got the match correct and not a single on of the six -11s got the match correct. It isn't until the -48s do the tiers start breaking 50 consistantly. Excluding the top 5 tiers which only have 5 people total, the top performers were the -72s. Even though it was a 6-way poll they still managed a prediction percentage abover 75.

31 people fell off the Top 50 today. Odourless, Tork_110, SWFreekLUE, Ciaran87, SingToMe14, PrimeZ, pmongold, EndofEternity, TheGOKid, organiz, Octavian_X, rscarric, ______________l, BenderTheRebel, CadeIsSadistic, hypertailz, KHmaster5, neoinfinity204, jahbal, darkshyoa, LordShadow19, Jam__Z, 599_USDOLLARS, Drakirby, underloud, SlayerK, TellYourFriends, Jerdude123, magus_zeus, Prof_Frink and Fett0001 did not have Samus going out in the first round of the Battle Royal.

6 people got lucky and managed to stay on the Top 50 despite getting the match wrong Zaps, FF7Cloud_Strife, elscorcho3200, VerbalOsmosis, indecision81 and Gnarkillv88.
---
I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!

NewLib | Posted 11/14/2006 9:41:33 PM | message detail

Wow it seems like Cloud is slowly syphoning votes from Sepnakario and Link is just staying there.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 9:41:53 PM | message detail

And Link is up over 1000 (1077)!

I forget how long it took him yesterday...

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess

RPGuy96 | Posted 11/14/2006 9:43:31 PM | message detail

I forget how long it took him yesterday...

He had a lead of 911 at 0:45, and 1042 at 1:00.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 9:44:48 PM | message detail

Took an hour, huh? Good stuff. He's got another whole crapload of votes to get if Mario goes out here, too. Should be interesting to see him as the lone Nintendo character against everyone else.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess

gonf | Posted 11/14/2006 9:45:05 PM | message detail

Imagine if Mario goes out today. Link will get like 50% tomorrow.
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Most wanted game: LoZ: TP

NewLib | Posted 11/14/2006 9:46:23 PM | message detail

It raises a serious question. How much percentage does Link need tommorow to have it in the bag?

I say if he hits in the mid 40s, I cant possibly see Sephiroth and Snake with their combined 30% not giving him 5-6%.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.

transience | Posted 11/14/2006 9:47:15 PM | message detail

I want to see Link vs. three non-Nintendo characters - I want to see if any kind of anti-voting sentiment builds up because he's just dominating everyone else's favourite characters. in something like this, I could see that happening.
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xyzzy

MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/14/2006 9:49:14 PM | message detail

I want to see Sephiroth get knocked out today, and see if he can outperform Cloud tomorrow.

DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/14/2006 9:49:22 PM | message detail

Snake lost 2% yesterday from here on out. Mario stayed basically where he was.
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CB06 - Score: 162/200 Rank: Tied - 764th Yesterday's Pick: Samus Elim Today's Pick: Solid Snake Elim
Tomorrow's Pick: Mario Elim Losses: Cortana, Ganondorf, Zero, Master Chief, Kirby, Mega Man, Crono(2)

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 9:52:02 PM | message detail

Now I'm not sure, but that looked like a great update for Link!

And holy crap Sephiroth dropped below 13%!

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess

Aprosenf | Posted 11/14/2006 9:53:55 PM | message detail

Mario picked up 19 votes on Sephiroth, cutting the deficit in half. C'mon Mario, you can do it!
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If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. Then try to find someone whose life has given them vodka.

Aprosenf | Posted 11/14/2006 9:56:16 PM | message detail

D'oh, sephiroth made it all back and then some that update.
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If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. Then try to find someone whose life has given them vodka.

HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2006 9:56:36 PM | message detail

Heh...how did Sephiroth do during day-light hours again?

Not that I think Mario > Sephiroth here, but I sure hope so!
---
Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!

transience | Posted 11/14/2006 9:56:44 PM | message detail

Sephiroth going out second would be pretty interesting. I'd think Mario would be pretty much done for if that was the case.
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xyzzy

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 9:57:48 PM | message detail

Sephiroth going out second would definitely be unexpected and interesting to see. I'd like to see how Cloud performs the following day.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess

DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/14/2006 9:58:11 PM | message detail

Sephiroth gained 2% from this point to the end yesterday.
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CB06 - Score: 162/200 Rank: Tied - 764th Yesterday's Pick: Samus Elim Today's Pick: Solid Snake Elim
Tomorrow's Pick: Mario Elim Losses: Cortana, Ganondorf, Zero, Master Chief, Kirby, Mega Man, Crono(2)

JaKyL25 | Posted 11/14/2006 9:58:51 PM | message detail

Oh, definitely. If Seph goes out today, then Mario's gone tomorrow, then Snake.

I'm REALLY hoping Snake has peaked or will peak soon and both Mario and Seph can pass him over the day. I mean, SOME of Samus's votes have to go to Mario, right?

...right? <_< >_>

If that can happen, then I'm gold.
---
Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.

HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2006 9:59:27 PM | message detail

Oh yeah, absolutely no doubt on that -- Cloud would start competing much better with Link and Solid would get more help from it than Mario...plus, that'd be another huge (awesome) upset.

I say that liking Sephiroth, mind you, as well as the rest of the characters in the BR (sorry Samus -- your games > you and your games aren't THAT special!)...but him going out today would make everything cooler.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!

Aprosenf | Posted 11/14/2006 9:59:32 PM | message detail

Anyone have the results of yesterday's PS3 poll saved? It seems to have disappeared. Its poll ID was 2570.
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If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. Then try to find someone whose life has given them vodka.

transience | Posted 11/14/2006 9:59:38 PM | message detail

oh, Sephiroth losing would be a shock to me. Mario is going to need one of those crazy comebacks to beat Sephiroth, though I wouldn't put Snake out of his reach considering his day vote.
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xyzzy

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2006 10:00:46 PM | message detail

Link drops below 36%! GAME OVER!
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CB5 Points: 139/200, Current Oracle placement: 21/170
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana

HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2006 10:01:00 PM | message detail

I'd love to see Cloud/Link/Solid -- that'd rule, even if Solid didn't stand a chance.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!

DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/14/2006 10:01:20 PM | message detail

From: JaKyL25
Oh, definitely. If Seph goes out today, then Mario's gone tomorrow, then Snake.

I'm REALLY hoping Snake has peaked or will peak soon and both Mario and Seph can pass him over the day. I mean, SOME of Samus's votes have to go to Mario, right?

...right? <_< >_>

If that can happen, then I'm gold.

See, I'm not even extremely worried about Mario losing. I'll bet he gets the casual vote and Snake sucks big time in the day. It'll be close I think.
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CB06 - Score: 162/200 Rank: Tied - 764th Yesterday's Pick: Samus Elim Today's Pick: Solid Snake Elim
Tomorrow's Pick: Mario Elim Losses: Cortana, Ganondorf, Zero, Master Chief, Kirby, Mega Man, Crono(2)

HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2006 10:02:22 PM | message detail

QUICK WITHOUT THINKING:

Throw Master Chief in the BR. How many days does he last?
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!

JaKyL25 | Posted 11/14/2006 10:02:56 PM | message detail

That sounds very logical and all, but Mario's performance yesterday compared to Snake is what worries me.
---
Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2006 10:03:04 PM | message detail

MC goes out 2nd day after SMUAS
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CB5 Points: 139/200, Current Oracle placement: 21/170
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana

transience | Posted 11/14/2006 10:03:12 PM | message detail

two. he'd lose today.

..not by much though.
---
xyzzy

Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/14/2006 10:03:42 PM | message detail

Anyone have the results of yesterday's PS3 poll saved? It seems to have disappeared. Its poll ID was 2570.

I think this is from near the end of the poll:

Do you plan to buy a PlayStation 3 this week?
Yes, I've got my pre-order in 2.8% 783
Yes, I'll be waiting in line 5.57% 1557
Yes, I'll get one off of eBay 0.44% 123
No, they're just too expensive 42.44% 11854
No, it's too much work to find one 7.2% 2012
No, I just don't want one right now 41.54% 11601
TOTAL VOTES 27930
---
I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 10:04:38 PM | message detail

Link's doing 6.3% better than yesterday after the first hour -- oh you know you love these Link stats! -- and we're dragging behind in vote totals quite a bit. Yesterday was definitely the peak for them at least. There were 13623 at the hour mark and 10758 now.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess

Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/14/2006 10:06:13 PM | message detail

"Yesterday was definitely the peak for them at least."

The final might be able to outdo it, but we aren't seeing another huge one till then probably.

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Can't think of a good sig.

JaKyL25 | Posted 11/14/2006 10:06:33 PM | message detail

As of right now:

Cloud + Sephiroth > Link

Margin of victory: 19 votes

...once Mario is gone, Link is going to be scary.
---
Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.

MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/14/2006 10:08:39 PM | message detail

I wouldn't be too confident in Snake right now. Sephiroth will only get stronger from here on out, but in couple of hours Snake will be in a freefall. Mario stayed pretty much the same yesterday, but I expect his day vote to increase tomorrow.

ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/14/2006 10:09:04 PM | message detail

As "interesting" as it'd be if Sephiroth lost today, I'd be really disappointed. =\

Also, let's say if Cloud wasn't in this, how well do you think Sephy'd be doing?
---
New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3

JaKyL25 | Posted 11/14/2006 10:10:05 PM | message detail

I'm kind of a noob at this, but I'd imagine he'd get at least 90% of Cloud's votes.
---
Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.

transience | Posted 11/14/2006 10:12:24 PM | message detail

Seph would probably be at about 30%.
---
xyzzy

MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/14/2006 10:12:38 PM | message detail

I'm kind of a noob at this, but I'd imagine he'd get at least 90% of Cloud's votes.

At least 90% of Cloud's vote while keeping his own would place Sephiroth far beyond Link. Less than 50% is the correct answer.

Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/14/2006 10:12:49 PM | message detail

we're dragging behind in vote totals quite a bit.

Probably because of the ads. The poll is a bit lower and doesn't stand out as much. If you're one of those people who still use 800x600 and don't block the ad, half the match pic is cut off(you can barely see Link and Sephiroth).
---
I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!

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