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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 430

HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2006 7:50:09 PM | message detail
Sephiroth is so screwed
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
Kaxon | Posted 11/14/2006 7:50:19 PM | message detail
From: MyWorldIsZelda | Posted: 11/14/2006 6:32:49 PM | Message Detail
Pfft! Those blasted Nintendo fans aren't voting correctly here!


Obviously... they're voting Nintendo!!
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....TCELES B HSUP
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/14/2006 7:51:42 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: This year's Link/Cloud match will be the closest Link/Cloud match on record.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 7:56:26 PM | message detail
Oh man, Cloud and Seph look so off with their KH2 pics, hilarious...

Mario > Snake > Link > Cloud = Seph pic-wise
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Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Battle Royale Day 1 - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (152/192)
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 11/14/2006 8:06:05 PM | message detail
So it looks like this match will be #1 for highest vote totals. Zelda/FF was rather short-lived.

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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 8:19:12 PM | message detail
Battle Royale: Day 2 – Cloud vs. Link vs. Mario vs. Sephiroth vs. Solid Snake

Moltar’s Analysis

Cloud
Day 1 – 23.50%

Link
Day 1 – 27.60%

Mario
Day 1 – 11.60%

Sephiorth
Day 1 – 16.40%

Snake
Day 1 – 13.10%

Well…Day 1 doesn’t turn out too crazy after all. Link wins, Cloud gets second, and Samus is eliminated. Oh well, time for Day 2. Who will survive?!

Well, we saw Snake beat Mario today, but the million-dollar question is if he can pull in a decent portion of Samus’s votes. I mean, he’s only about 2000 votes behind Snake, and there’s 10,000+ Samus voters wondering who to vote tomorrow. Logic says they’ll go to Link and Mario.

Now, calculating how much will go to Link…how much will go to Mario…how much will go to the others…random dropoff with the votes…carry the 5…squared…ahh yes, it seems that Mario will just barely get enough votes to stay alive over Snake! (Warning: This is subject to be totally wrong)

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake will lose.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Link ~30%, Cloud ~25%, Seph ~17%, Mario ~14%, Snake with 13.98%



Ulti’s? More like Transience’s Analysis

I'm pretty disappointed in day 1. it actually went as expected - Link domination, Cloud on a tier by himself, Samus getting the holy hell SFFed out of her and the others somewhere in the middle. I was hoping for something wild to happen but the characters more or less performed to their strengths in a regular character battle.

so what happens tonight? well, what I want to know is how static the voters are going to be. are they going to vote for the same character every time? are they going to adjust their votes based on previous results? for example, will Link supporters throw their support to Mario? will Cloud fans support Snake? or will Link fans just vote Link six days in a row?

it's an interesting, unsolvable question. there's also the question of where Samus's votes go - you'd think they'd go to Link and Mario, but I'm not so sure about that. Link and Mario already SFFed Samus, so I don't know how much more they can take from her core fans. personally, my Samus vote will be shifting to Cloud and I could see that 8% being mostly evenly distributed.

Mario pretty much sucked it up today. (as predicted by yours truly!) finishing below a character he beat pretty good a year ago is about as close to an x-stat upset as we have here. if you believe in pictures making a difference, he might actually have overperformed with how prominent he was in that thing. it seems like Mario is suffering from Link's dominance, something that isn't likely to go away any time soon. is the reduced numbers of Nintendo characters going to help him? a little bit, enough to make this a tight race for second last. I think Snake is slightly more likely to go out, but I'll go with the upset here. (though I may not be in the minority!)

prediction: Link - 31%; Cloud - 26%; Sephiroth - 17%; Solid Snake - 13.5%; Mario - 12.5%



HM’s Analysis

As expected, Samus is eliminated after the first day. She didn’t get quite as low as I had projected, but she still wasn’t even in contention for any position except for last. With that easy choice out of the way, things are getting a little harder with the two next candidates ready to go – Mario and Solid Snake.

When you look at the poll results yesterday, Snake finished in a nice 4th place and Mario trailed at 5th. But you have to imagine that Samus’s votes will definitely help out Mario and Link before they will Snake. Even in a loss, she got a nice 11,000 votes, the majority going to Link I would presume, and those can be divided up and split to the Nintendo dudes first and then everyone else later.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 8:19:48 PM | message detail
I think with Samus out of the voting options, Mario’s going to get a nice little boost to slightly out last Snake in what should be a tight match throughout. This one is really hard, but I think the plumber heads into the Final Four to compete with the big guys.

Aitch Emm’s vote: Link

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Solid Snake – 13%



Yoblazer’s Analysis

With 2.5 hours left to go in the Battle Royal's first day, things are actually looking good for Snake to outlast Mario. He leads the gaming icon by a little over 1.5%, and Samus will have less than 7.8% to disperse to the other entrants. With a good chunk of that going to Link and the rest being split amongst the others, I doubt Mario will make up the 2% or so necessary for him to make it through another day.

...Of course, this is Mario, GameFAQs' version of the ****ing Hamburglar. Mario steals more contest victories than Cloud steals fangirls' panties from Link's hotel room. He's a perfect 3-0 in nail biters, and if he's neck and neck with Snake during the last few hours, he will have the edge. It's been three long years since we've seen some bonafide Mario magic, and I think it's about time we got ourselves ready for a show.

Link with 30%
Cloud with 24.5%
Sephiroth with 17.5%
Mario with 14.01%
Snake with 13.99%



Lopen’s Analysis

I think today will prove something interesting: a close match can change based on just random variation from day to day. I don't expect the results to be almost exactly the same just with Samus's votes spread throughout the competition, nope. It's all about who shows up, and different people are showing up.

It's also possible that some of the Link fans might spread out their votes, because they saw just how dominant he was yesterday. Who's more likely to get them out of the lot? Mario, of course! Of course the same could be said of Cloud, to a lesser extent.


One thing's for sure though, barring some huge variation, this match is between Mario and Snake. I give Sephiroth an off shot of being eliminated too. My gut says go with Mario, despite Snake doing better today. Samus's votes will probably go in a bit higher proportion to Mario than to Snake. Will it be enough on its own? Well, probably not. But it will close the gap to random chance. However, I have a feeling the poll's gonna go wicked different today! And Mario will show his plumber durability at its finest.

Some analysis, huh? The poll will randomly change! Stunning idea, Lopen!

… shut up!

Lopen's Prediction: Solid Snake eliminated with 14.13% (Snake has to get less votes proportionally than yesterday... yes it's a change!)



KH’s Analysis

I've got a feeling Mario edges out Snake here, but my bias isn't going to let me admit that by a longshot.

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Mario loses with 13.5%



Crew Consensus: Snake or Mario? Well, the Crew thinks Snake will be the next to go, but it's up for debate!
Big Bob | Posted 11/14/2006 8:24:49 PM | message detail
Big Bob's completely biased and nonsensical analysis

Alright, Sephy outlasted Day 1. But he's not going to make it past Day 2! He may be ahead of Mario and Snake, but where are all of Samus's votes going? Mario and Snake. SSBB SFF Baby! Plus the Sephiroth supporters will probably by bored and vote for Cloud instead.

Bob's Prediction: Sephiroth dies with 1%
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
Super Luigi | Posted 11/14/2006 8:36:32 PM | message detail
Is the match picture supposed to change each time someone is eliminated?
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Currently playing : Gears of War(Xbox 360), Call of Duty 3(Xbox 360), NHL 2K7(Xbox 360).
XBL GT - SuPeR MiKe 86
RockMFR 5 | Posted 11/14/2006 8:52:28 PM | message detail
The Zelda/FF votal record has been surpassed.
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O RLY? ALVEOLA RLY! o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
CountCrazy007 | Posted 11/14/2006 8:55:45 PM | message detail
Samus votes going to Snake... right...
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Board 8's Voice of Reason Since 2003 ©
Oklahoma Sooners 8-2 - Next Victim: Baylor
Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 8:56:42 PM | message detail
I voted for Samus today and my vote is going to Snake!
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Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Battle Royale Day 2 - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (160/200)
HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2006 8:57:56 PM | message detail
I voted for Mario today and I'm still voting that way tomorrow!
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/14/2006 8:58:04 PM | message detail
I voted for Snake today and my vote is going to Mario!
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
creativename | Posted 11/14/2006 8:58:34 PM | message detail
It will be very interesting to see how Samus' votes will be divided up. A nice opportunity here.

Will they go loosely proportionally based on today's results? Everyone expects it to be unbalanced in favor of Link/Mario and against Cloud/Sephiroth - but just how unbalanced will it be?

Mario does look like the clear choice to go out next though.
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trannyscience | Posted 11/14/2006 8:58:49 PM | message detail
bracket voting when a prize is possible, eh?
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zizzy
CountCrazy007 | Posted 11/14/2006 8:58:59 PM | message detail
From Master Moltar
I voted for Samus today and my vote is going to Snake!

Moltar is beyond normal. Your opinion doesn't count... ^_^
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Board 8's Voice of Reason Since 2003 ©
Oklahoma Sooners 8-2 - Next Victim: Baylor
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/14/2006 8:59:20 PM | message detail
bracket voting when a prize is possible, eh?

>_>

<_<

I'm pretty much always a dirty bracket voter until I'm soundly eliminated.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Mister Mario | Posted 11/14/2006 8:59:48 PM | message detail
So Mario needs around 2000 of the votes for Samus here to go to him so that he doesn't exit.

YOU CAN DO IT!
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Z1mZum more like Z1mAwesome.
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CountCrazy007 | Posted 11/14/2006 9:00:08 PM | message detail
This royal will give us an opportunity to see where fanbases are aligned. I don't suspect anything out of the ordinary to happen, but at least the royal will be rock solid proof of some things...
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Board 8's Voice of Reason Since 2003 ©
Oklahoma Sooners 8-2 - Next Victim: Baylor
Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 9:00:14 PM | message detail
Cloud Strife 11.11%

1
Link 22.22%

2
Mario 11.11%

1
Sephiroth 0%

0
Solid Snake 55.56%

5
TOTAL VOTES 9

woo!
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Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Battle Royale Day 2 - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (160/200)
The_Ocelot | Posted 11/14/2006 9:00:14 PM | message detail
Cloud Strife 14.29%

1
Link 28.57%

2
Mario 14.29%

1
Sephiroth 0%

0
Solid Snake 42.86%

3
TOTAL VOTES 7
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Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 9:00:31 PM | message detail
Cloud Strife 12.64% 11
Link 32.18% 28
Mario 21.84% 19
Sephiroth 11.49% 10
Solid Snake 21.84% 19
TOTAL VOTES 87

GO GO LINK!

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
E_Gadd | Posted 11/14/2006 9:00:55 PM | message detail
Cloud Strife 13.76% 15
Link 32.11% 35
Mario 24.77% 27
Sephiroth 10.09% 11
Solid Snake 19.27% 21
TOTAL VOTES 109
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Gaddswell
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/14/2006 9:01:17 PM | message detail
Aaaaand... our brackets didn't update. Hooray. =/
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
trannyscience | Posted 11/14/2006 9:01:21 PM | message detail
I looooooooooove watching the FF7 board vote.
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zizzy
Super Luigi | Posted 11/14/2006 9:01:39 PM | message detail
God damn, Why do so many people like Link so much?
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Currently playing : Gears of War(Xbox 360), Call of Duty 3(Xbox 360), NHL 2K7(Xbox 360).
XBL GT - SuPeR MiKe 86
The_Ocelot | Posted 11/14/2006 9:01:51 PM | message detail
lol snake in 2nd
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Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101

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Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101
HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2006 9:02:00 PM | message detail
Cloud Strife 17.92%

74
Link 35.59%

147
Mario 17.68%

73
Sephiroth 10.9%

45
Solid Snake 17.92%

74


BAH GAWD ITS A TRIPLE-THREAT SLOBBER-KNOCKER
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/14/2006 9:02:01 PM | message detail
Man is Sephys board vote hilarious.
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Demyx > Axel
Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Phoenix Wright 2: Justice For All
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/14/2006 9:02:09 PM | message detail
Why the hell does the board hate Sephiroth so goddamn much?
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
FFDragon | Posted 11/14/2006 9:02:09 PM | message detail
Cloud Strife 18.05%
Link 35.89%
Mario 16.8%
Sephiroth 10.37%
Solid Snake 18.88%
TOTAL VOTES 482

Lawl Snake in second
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Married to PepsiPlunge June 01, 2005: HERO'S PLUNGE!
(Metal Gear Solid 2)
trannyscience | Posted 11/14/2006 9:02:30 PM | message detail
and jesus christ, the board wants to bang Link.
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zizzy
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 9:02:32 PM | message detail
Link over 35%! Gotta keep that up!

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2006 9:03:00 PM | message detail
The Sephiroth board vote makes me giggle.
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CB5 Points: 131/192, Current Oracle placement: 21/170
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana
Haste_2 | Posted 11/14/2006 9:03:06 PM | message detail
It looks like not only is there no prediction percentage for yesterday, but the leaderboard didn't even get updated. :(

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Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 9:03:29 PM | message detail
Damn Link...lol Seph, and it looks like Mario/Snake is going to be pretty close after all.
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Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Battle Royale Day 2 - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (160/200)
HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2006 9:03:31 PM | message detail
ExTha, honestly, it's because of you.

*DX-chops your way*
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/14/2006 9:03:35 PM | message detail
Why the hell does the board hate Sephiroth so goddamn much?

Well, technically you can't really call it anti-voting, since it's split so many ways. There just aren't any Sephiroth fans here.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
JaKyL25 | Posted 11/14/2006 9:04:41 PM | message detail
It looks like not only is there no prediction percentage for yesterday, but the leaderboard didn't even get updated. :(

That's okay, I don't mind being on top an extra day! ^_^

*Isn't sure who he picked to get eliminated first*
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
The_Ocelot | Posted 11/14/2006 9:05:20 PM | message detail
Cloud Strife 19.72%

280
Link 36.06%

512
Mario 14.79%

210
Sephiroth 12.68%

180
Solid Snake 16.76%

238
TOTAL VOTES 1420

freezage
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Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/14/2006 9:05:28 PM | message detail
Damnit Ceej, update the scores.
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CB06 - Score: 162/200 Rank: Tied - 1115th Yesterday's Pick: Samus Aran Elim Today's Pick: Solid Snake Elim
Tomorrow's Pick: Mario Elim Losses: Cortana, Ganondorf, Zero, Master Chief, Kirby, Mega Man, Crono(2)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 9:05:30 PM | message detail
Cloud Strife 19.72% 280
Link 36.06% 512
Mario 14.79% 210
Sephiroth 12.68% 180
Solid Snake 16.76% 238
TOTAL VOTES 1420


Link over 36% at the freeze! Hah, good stuff!


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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
E_Gadd | Posted 11/14/2006 9:05:31 PM | message detail
At the freeze:


Cloud Strife 19.72% 280
Link 36.06% 512
Mario 14.79% 210
Sephiroth 12.68% 180
Solid Snake 16.76% 238
TOTAL VOTES 1420
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Gaddswell
Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 9:06:04 PM | message detail
Hmm, Cloud looks alot worse off than yesterday too...then again, I can't remember how he started.
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Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Battle Royale Day 2 - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (160/200)
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/14/2006 9:07:06 PM | message detail
Come on Mario!
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CB06 - Score: 162/200 Rank: Tied - 1115th Yesterday's Pick: Samus Aran Elim Today's Pick: Solid Snake Elim
Tomorrow's Pick: Mario Elim Losses: Cortana, Ganondorf, Zero, Master Chief, Kirby, Mega Man, Crono(2)
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/14/2006 9:07:10 PM | message detail
All Time Most Popular Polls

01. 159347 - Link vs Cloud Strife vs Sephiroth vs Solid Snake vs Mario vs Samus Aran (2006 Characters Battle Royale Day 1)
02. 158527 - (1) The Legend of Zelda vs (1) Final Fantasy (2006 Series Final)
03. 157773 - (1) Final Fantasy vs (1) Super Mario Bros. (2006 Series Semfinal)
04. 147637 - (1) Cloud Strife vs (1) Link (2003 Characters Semifinal)
05. 144128 - (1) Samus Aran vs (1) Tifa Lockhart (2006 Characters Quarterfinal)
06. 137961 - (1) Solid Snake vs (1) Sonic the Hedgehog (2006 Characters Semifinal)
07. 137513 - (1) Metal Gear vs (2) Kingdom Hearts (2006 Series Quarterfinal)
08. 136154 - (1) Final Fantasy vs (2) Resident Evil (2006 Series Quarterfinal)
09. 135980 - (1) Solid Snake vs (4) Squall Leonhart (2006 Characters Round 2)
10. 135562 - (1) Final Fantasy vs (4) Mega Man (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen)
11. 135217 - (1) Princess Zelda vs (1) Yuna (2006 Characters Quarterfinal)
12. 134604 - (1) The Legend of Zelda vs (2) Metroid (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen)
13. 134577 - (3) Auron vs (7) Sub-Zero (2006 Characters Round 2)
14. 133797 - (2) Mega Man vs (1) Sora (2006 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
15. 133005 - (1) Mario vs (4) Crono (2003 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
16. 132410 - (1) The Legend of Zelda vs (1) Metal Gear (2006 Series Semifinal)
17. 132251 - (1) Sonic the Hedgehog vs (2) Luigi (2006 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
18. 131875 - (1) Samus Aran vs (2) Princess Zelda (2006 Characters Semifinal)
19. 130058 - (2) Luigi vs (7) Zero (2006 Characters Round 1)
20. 129977 - (1) The Legend of Zelda vs (5) Mega Man X (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen)
21. 129703 - (1) Mario vs (2) Cloud Strife (2002 Characters Quarterfinal)
22. 129569 - (6) Yoshi vs (2) Dante (2006 Characters Round 2)
23. 129537 - (3) Rikku vs (2) Kairi (2006 Characters Round 2)
24. 128290 - (7) Sub-Zero vs (2) Master Chief (2006 Characters Round 1)
25. 128286 - (2) Kingdom Hearts vs (3) Castlevania (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen)

2002 Characters - 1
2003 Characters - 2
2004 Games - 0
2004 Characters - 0
2005 Villains - 0
2005 Characters - 0
2006 Series - 9
2006 Characters - 13

A NEW RECORD! Hope you have GameFOX and wide layout, though...
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Mustache...and green...
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DpObliVion | Posted 11/14/2006 9:07:26 PM | message detail
Did Seph really drop off overnight, or does he just suck with the board vote?

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NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
trannyscience | Posted 11/14/2006 9:07:41 PM | message detail
god, I can't wait til day 4 if it's Cloud/Link/Seph left. it's gonna be something like this:

Link - 55%
Cloud - 28%
Seph - 17%
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zizzy
cdw01 | Posted 11/14/2006 9:07:46 PM | message detail
Does anyone know positively if the battle royale actually counts for anything because that part of the bracket has seemingly been left out of the contest?