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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 430

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/14/2006 11:21:32 AM | message detail
I'll probably just slap Tidus 2k4 in there and leave it be. Tidus 2k5 seems way too high, and Tidus going through his proportion with this year's Kirby has him crazy low.

I'm not pushing Dante up any more, Yoshi above Bowser and Riku above Leon Kennedy are bad enough for me as it is, though that might be simply Bowser sucking more than he should've against Crono. But then again, Luigi bombed pretty hard against Sonic as well...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/14/2006 11:22:01 AM | message detail
OH HEY GUYS LETS ALL IGNORE EC'S STATS AND COMMENT ON KH'S JEEZE I'M GONNA GO KILL MYSELF NOW.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
transience | Posted 11/14/2006 11:22:35 AM | message detail
(remember, I'm using a constant Rikku and NOT adjusting her for Dream Division overratedness already).

exactly, which is what I was looking at doing if I was to do such a thing. I think that would put them almost exactly equal, though I can't say for sure...

hmm. Rikku/Ryu keeping their proportions actually increases Rikku, but I think Ryu just had a bad year. Rikku through Bowser... hmm.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 11/14/2006 11:23:07 AM | message detail
OH HEY GUYS LETS ALL IGNORE EC'S STATS AND COMMENT ON KH'S JEEZE I'M GONNA GO KILL MYSELF NOW.

KHF KHF KHF KHF KHF KHF KHF
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xyzzy
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/14/2006 11:24:24 AM | message detail
ya wat ever
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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/14/2006 11:25:18 AM | message detail
For fun, I try out 2006's X-stats calculator, and put Crono 2006 vs. 2006 Tifa (Raw/Unadjusted).

Crono (2006c) has a strength of 38.11 against Base Link.
Tifa (2006c raw) has a raw strength of 0.00 against Base Link.

Crono 100.00%
Tifa 0.00%

Tifa=Tanner!

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
transience | Posted 11/14/2006 11:25:56 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
transience | Posted 11/14/2006 11:27:06 AM | message detail
uhhh, that sentence sucked. adjusting Samus via adjusted Rikku puts her below Sonic if I did the math right. transience is not pleased.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/14/2006 11:27:15 AM | message detail
As bad as Bowser was this year, Rikku through Bowser probably projects Samus to lose to Snake...eh, whatever.

If I had to self-critique, Gordon Freeman is looking non-linear no matter what you do. Phoenix Wright over Captain Falcon is not something that is happening in this lifetime, ever -- heck I'd take the Captain to beat Freeman on SSBM power alone.

Tifa's likely still overadjusted, Sheena looks like a beast. Zelda's probably a touch high as well, as Chun-Li is dead-even with her 2k5 value and I find that hard to believe.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/14/2006 11:28:16 AM | message detail
Oh, lose to Sonic even? Ouch.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 11/14/2006 11:29:24 AM | message detail
take a look at my numbers with KOS 2k3. here, I've got them laying around separated:

Zelda - 34.70
Aeris - 29.93
Yuna - 29.83
Chun Li - 23.36
KOS-MOS - 22.96
Lara Croft - 20.77
Marle - 18.09
Amy Rose - 15.87
Kasumi - 14.61
Terra - 14.26
Joanna - 13.10
Roll - 12.35
Sarah Kerrigan - 11.78
Cortana - 10.41
Carmen Sandiego - 9.66
Alyx Vance - 9.33

I like these more. I worry that it might be underrating Zelda, but putting her much higher worries me.
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xyzzy
Alanna82 | Posted 11/14/2006 11:32:06 AM | message detail
Why does KOSMOS need to be adjusted? and Zelda has TP hype so her spot should be fine.
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Happily married to Wiggumfan267 on Valentines day, 2005. "Most unusual tastes ever" - The RPGDL
transience | Posted 11/14/2006 11:32:49 AM | message detail
yeah, she had that last year too.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/14/2006 11:34:19 AM | message detail
Those look good, although it potentially underrates Zelda a tad...I'm tempted to just set her equal to Ganondorf and just say **** the whole thing.

Also, as a self-critique Gordon Freeman might not be the problem...Sora just looks like an absolute monster in these things, and you can't really do anything to make him look weaker without making the Destiny Division look like crap (especially Mega Man). An overperformance on MM wouldn't shock me, but I think I'll leave him as is...he's not below any of the heavy-hitting FF characters, which is good enough since we all know he'll get SFFed to hell anyway.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/14/2006 11:35:10 AM | message detail
Zelda gets adjusted. She's not beating the Lower Noble Nine, and Yuna's not beating Ganondorf, among many other things.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BDawg | Posted 11/14/2006 11:37:07 AM | message detail
Gah time for the kiddies to come home, Nintendo hungers for more votes! Also lol at the PS3 poll of the day below the battle, not only is PS3 getting dissed it only has like 14k votes. The air force is not getting their money's worth!
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Should I start running now?
transience | Posted 11/14/2006 11:39:23 AM | message detail
Zelda = Ganondorf is a nice middle ground, though it has no basis whatsoever other than the two sharing a series. probably makes for the neatest numbers too.
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xyzzy
wavedash101 | Posted 11/14/2006 11:42:40 AM | message detail
I could see Zelda beating MM, Crono or Sonic next year with TP, PH, and most likely SSBB under her belt...though this is obviously dicounting SSBB appearances for any of them...and the new Sonic games revolutionizing the series...or at least not getting trashed on...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Big Bob | Posted 11/14/2006 11:42:56 AM | message detail
If Yuna's anywhere CLOSE to Auron, the stats are completely useless.

He did several points better on Ganondorf last year, he's commonly preferred by the FF fanbase, and there's no way Yuna could have boosted from KHII without Auron boosting more.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
transience | Posted 11/14/2006 11:43:18 AM | message detail
oh, and those PS3 numbers in the poll are disgusting. looks like we're going to have WiiFAQs to the extreme.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/14/2006 11:44:43 AM | message detail
What can you expect? A 600 dollar system at launch that has tons of massive shortages? The PS3 will eventually gain some steam, but we're not going to see system parity here for quite some time.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/14/2006 11:45:42 AM | message detail
Didn't the PS3 only sell 80,000 at launch in Japan? Despite have 100,000 available?

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
wavedash101 | Posted 11/14/2006 11:47:01 AM | message detail
100,000 estimated, so there could have been less....but it was comfirmed that some stores still had PS3s left in stock...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
transience | Posted 11/14/2006 11:52:30 AM | message detail
massive shortages shouldn't come into account too much - 7% say it's too much work. I don't think Wiis are going to be the easiest things to find but I bet they have like 40% of the people answering yes. that's serious domination.

makes me wonder if something like MGS4 will even help all that much.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/14/2006 11:54:43 AM | message detail
It will, but a price drop will do infinitely more. Without Blu-Ray, if the PS3 would be in the 400-500 dollar range or even less, and you could bet a LOT more people would be on board for it. Heck, with the way I've seen Blu-Ray players go for it could conceivably be as low as 300 for the lower end models.

Sony's just shooting themselves in the foot here, but we all knew that.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BDawg | Posted 11/14/2006 12:00:59 PM | message detail
Eh it still wouldn't surprise me if PS3 ends up #1, and yeah I'm pro-Nintendo. But the market share should be a lot more even this generation, maybe even for lol X-box. Not that it will help it any around here heh.
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Should I start running now?
Kaxon | Posted 11/14/2006 12:19:30 PM | message detail
By the way, if Cloud can beat out Link in any one poll before the finals, I'll hold out hope that he can beat him. If not, I'll just say forget it and just worry about how much Link wins by.

Thing is, Cloud beating Link before the finals depends entirely on Sephiroth getting eliminated early. And if anything, Sephiroth doing well would say good things about Cloud's chances, not bad things. So I disagree here.

I know that Mario surviving tomorrow is in question, but does anybody question that Samus being eliminated helps Mario more than any other character?

I think Link will gain more than Mario just because he's more popular. Look at it this way - if we knew absolutely nothing about Samus's voters, we wouldn't assume that everyone gets 20% of her votes - we'd assume they split proportionally (so Link would get 29.67% of them, Cloud 25.70%, Seph 17.62%, Snake 14.82%, and Mario 12.14%). I think Mario has a chance of exceeding the proportional split the most, but I think he has almost no chance of actually getting a bigger chunk of her votes than Link.

I suspect half will go to Link, a third will go to Mario and the remainder will be split among the other three w/ Snake likely doing the best of them.

I would be amazed if things break that sharply. This isn't Ganondorf we're talking about - Samus has her own fanbase, and the people who only vote for her because she's Nintendo have already abandoned her for Link and Mario. I expect her votes go more like 40% Link, 25% Mario, 15% Cloud, 10% Seph, 10% Snake.
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....TCELES B HSUP
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 1:00:23 PM | message detail
This is looking really good for Cloud... only 4% behind Link, and Seph & Snake combined have 10% more than Samus & Mario. Sure you can't say it'll all go to Cloud, but there's a higher chance it does, as we've seen MGS/FF overlap before, and obviously Seph would almost all go to Cloud. I hope it happens, as much as I don't believe in KHF, it'd be awesome after seeing LoZ > FF, and HM like this.

Umm...no. Just no.

You cannot possibly say that even half, even one third, of Snake's vote would go to Cloud. That's simply baseless. There is simply no indication that is the case at all. Now it's pretty easy to give Sephiroth's votes to Cloud, but then you have to give Mario's votes to Link and Samus's votes to Link. Then a good portion of Snake's votes to Link and then take into account that Link is already 4,000 votes ahead.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/14/2006 1:21:01 PM | message detail
Yeah, but Vincent would get at LEAST 54-55% on Squall now

It works logically against everything we saw in this contest, but whatever. I wouldn't expect anything less from you.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/14/2006 1:21:39 PM | message detail
Just out of curiosity, is anybody making x-stats to reflect Samus' blatant rSFFing of Snake?
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/14/2006 1:23:14 PM | message detail
I do have stats where Snake is indirectly stronger, but I'm not prepared to endure the wrath they'll incur. So, sorry, can't help you out there. <<

Although they make a lot of things line up nicely! <_______________<
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 1:29:10 PM | message detail
Samus rSFF Snake? Excuse me while I laugh!

Samus proved her strength right there!
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Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Battle Royale Day 1 - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (152/192)
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/14/2006 1:33:02 PM | message detail
You should post them anyways, just to show the possibility. =/
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
voltch | Posted 11/14/2006 1:44:19 PM | message detail
Samus can't even SFF nidoran female right?
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/14/2006 1:45:51 PM | message detail
Samus totally SFF'd Ganon...he would've done as well as Zelda otherwise!
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/14/2006 1:46:27 PM | message detail
Neither of those characters got a huge boost from SSB/SSBM/SSBB. Snake did.
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
trannyscience | Posted 11/14/2006 1:47:54 PM | message detail
I looked at the possibility earlier, it puts Samus at about Mega Man or Crono's level and lowers the female half to sane levels.
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zizzy
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/14/2006 1:50:36 PM | message detail
Neither of those characters got a huge boost from SSB/SSBM/SSBB. Snake did.

What? Snake got a huge boost from SSB/SSBM? Since when?
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/14/2006 1:53:00 PM | message detail
From Mac Arrowny
Neither of those characters got a huge boost from SSB/SSBM/SSBB. Snake did.

What? Snake got a huge boost from SSB/SSBM? Since when?


Notice the last bit? I was referring to the series as a whole.
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/14/2006 1:58:03 PM | message detail
But...he didn't get a boost from the series as a whole. Just as Zelda didn't get a boost from SSB just from appearing in SSBM.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 1:58:57 PM | message detail
...Oh lame. I just realized I'm not going to be around to see any of Link v. Cloud.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/14/2006 1:59:04 PM | message detail
...You know what I mean. =/
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2006 2:08:23 PM | message detail
Interesting, seems the day vote is going Link > Mario > Seph >> Samus > Cloud > Snake.
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Moltar Status: 5th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Battle Royale Day 1 - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (152/192)
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/14/2006 2:09:24 PM | message detail
...Oh lame. I just realized I'm not going to be around to see any of Link v. Cloud.

That's too bad. A delayed reaction to Cloud beating Link will have to do, I suppose!!
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
The_Ocelot | Posted 11/14/2006 2:11:04 PM | message detail
Didn't the PS3 only sell 80,000 at launch in Japan? Despite have 100,000 available?

No, the PS3 sold out at launch in Japan. Sony had to slightly cut back from 100,000 units to 88,400 units, all of which sold out.


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Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101
trannyscience | Posted 11/14/2006 2:16:05 PM | message detail
kinda strange how Samus went about even the entire match with Mario yet she's dropping so hard here.. I want to draw a conclusion here, but I can't seem to figure out what it is.
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zizzy
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/14/2006 2:17:59 PM | message detail
"kinda strange how Samus went about even the entire match with Mario yet she's dropping so hard here.. I want to draw a conclusion here, but I can't seem to figure out what it is."


Mario SFFs Samus whenever the Nintendo vote is strong and he can actually gain some votes instead of them all going to Link?

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Can't think of a good sig.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 2:23:44 PM | message detail
That's too bad. A delayed reaction to Cloud beating Link will have to do, I suppose!!

Hah! That's so funny !!

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/14/2006 2:39:17 PM | message detail
These trends do have me worried about Cloud's chances against Link. We already saw what he's capable of with the Power Hour, and it was that first hour that pretty much doomed Final Fantasy against Zelda in the Series Contest. Not to mention, Link's starting to pick it up again here with the after school vote.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/14/2006 2:43:20 PM | message detail
"These trends do have me worried about Cloud's chances against Link. We already saw what he's capable of with the Power Hour, and it was that first hour that pretty much doomed Final Fantasy against Zelda in the Series Contest. Not to mention, Link's starting to pick it up again here with the after school vote."


He gained about 1400 over Cloud last night and managed to have it only decrease to 1200 by morning, and hes gained a lot since then. In comparison, he actually lost the lead over the night to Cloud in 2005.

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Can't think of a good sig.