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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 430

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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/14/2006 10:17:03 PM | message detail

"At least 90% of Cloud's vote while keeping his own would place Sephiroth far beyond Link. Less than 50% is the correct answer."

Right now in the BR, no it wouldn't. 90% of Cloud's current score + Sephiroth's is still short of Links score right now.
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MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 10:17:10 PM | message detail

He'd probably be doing a few percentage points worse than Cloud is doing right now and a definite second. Cloud being gone wouldn't cause any crazy shakeup, I don't think. I think Link is even further out as a result though.

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JaKyL25 | Posted 11/14/2006 10:17:11 PM | message detail

At least 90% of Cloud's vote while keeping his own would place Sephiroth far beyond Link. Less than 50% is the correct answer.

Actually by my count that only puts him barely beyond Link, which isn't right, but common sense would say that Seph is the 2nd choice of something more than 50% of Cloud voters.
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Janus5000 | Posted 11/14/2006 10:17:47 PM | message detail

Who would the board vote favor after Snake goes out?

...Wait, stupid question. Here's a better one:

How high does Link get during the board vote on day 4?
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transience | Posted 11/14/2006 10:18:15 PM | message detail

here are some numbers from the last match for each:

Sephiroth at 1:15: 14.27%
Sephiroth at the end of the poll: 16.43%

Sephiroth right now: 13.31%

Mario at 1:15: 11.64%
Mario at the end of the poll: 11.59%

Mario right now: 12.16%

Snake at 1:15: 13.74%
Snake at the end of the poll: 13.12%

Snake right now: 15.12%
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JaKyL25 | Posted 11/14/2006 10:20:28 PM | message detail

So basically this is between Snake and Mario, advantage Snake, correct?
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/14/2006 10:20:47 PM | message detail

I wondering what happened to some of the Seph support that isn't showing up today. I didn't expect him to really gain anything from Samus being gone, but why should he stand to lose anything?
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/14/2006 10:21:49 PM | message detail

"So basically this is between Snake and Mario, advantage Snake, correct?"

This is between Mario and his shadow, because there's basically no way he survives today.
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transience | Posted 11/14/2006 10:23:36 PM | message detail

I'm gonna love it if Snake holds on. I want to see utter domination and, hopefully, a backlash for Link being so dominant in this thing. plus I just want to see Mario go down.

I still don't know who to vote for here -- my favourite left is Cloud, but I want to make my vote be worth something at the same time.
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MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/14/2006 10:24:36 PM | message detail

I was looking at yesterday's final result with Samus in the picture. If Cloud simply disappeared from the contest, there is no way Sephiroth receives 90% of what would be Cloud votes (we are talking over 21 percent of the vote, and probably more if Samus is out of the picture). Without calculating anything specific, Sephiroth's benefits would be more likely approx. 50% of Cloud votes, with the other half distributed to rest of the BR contestants.

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 10:25:13 PM | message detail

I don't think we're going to see much backlash.

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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/14/2006 10:26:19 PM | message detail

Really? You've figured this out based on what math again? 'Cause I know you're not going to tell me you're stating opinion (or intuition) as fact, right?
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MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/14/2006 10:27:07 PM | message detail

Revenge votes can only affect extremely close matches, and I don't think Link and Cloud is that close right now.

UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/14/2006 10:28:26 PM | message detail

It REALLY sucks that I bombed the end of the main bracket so badly. It looks like I might have a perfect BR pick :(

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MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/14/2006 10:29:26 PM | message detail

Look, if Sephiroth takes at least 90% of votes that would goto Cloud, he would have crushed Link in day 1.

JaKyL25 | Posted 11/14/2006 10:31:20 PM | message detail

Okay, maybe 80% then.

Add on 90% of Mario + Samus's votes to Link and see what happens.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/14/2006 10:31:52 PM | message detail

A Link fending of Mario and Samus. Listen, just because your intuition tells you no, that doesn't mean it's right. Look at the goddamned poll, for christs' sake. It has other factors to contend with, meaning that even though it's impossible in your mind for Sephiroth to have more votes than Link doesn't mean it still wouldn't happen under such irregular circumstances.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/14/2006 10:33:00 PM | message detail

Oh, and that same Seph goes from crushing Link on day one to slightly losing to him in day 2 with Samus gone. Imagine what that means for day 3 sans Mario.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/14/2006 10:33:21 PM | message detail

As much as I love Snake, I still want to see a Link/Cloud/Seph final three, just to see how close to 50% Link can get.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/14/2006 10:34:25 PM | message detail

I'd bet it's not that far off from what he gets with Snake in place of Seph.
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 11/14/2006 10:35:29 PM | message detail

I'd bet it's not that far off from what he gets with Snake in place of Seph.

I'd take that bet, but there'd be no way to prove it. >_>

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/14/2006 10:35:30 PM | message detail

From YoAriel33 Posted 11/15/2006 1:33:21 AM #469
As much as I love Snake, I still want to see a Link/Cloud/Seph final three, just to see how close to 50% Link can get.

I hope to god he wouldn't break 50% there. It means that Link alone > FF7 on this site.

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MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/14/2006 10:38:53 PM | message detail

Day 1 would look like this with Cloud gone and Seph receiving 50% of his votes:
Sephiroth - 45066
Link - 43679

Right now as of 1:36am update, it'd look like this:
Sephiroth - 3774
Link - 5370

Obviously Seph is stronger than that, but this looks more reasonable considering Link just had this power hour.

HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2006 10:38:53 PM | message detail

MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/14/2006 10:43:10 PM | message detail

Oh, and that same Seph goes from crushing Link on day one to slightly losing to him in day 2 with Samus gone. Imagine what that means for day 3 sans Mario.

Sorry, I guess I didn't make my thoughts clear. But I just find it crazy that Sephiroth is to receive 90% of Cloud votes while at least 3 other noble niners share less than 10% of the pie.

ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/14/2006 10:44:15 PM | message detail

Yes, and as a stark contrast to that look at how much Seph with 90% of Cloud's vote would make him look TODAY.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/14/2006 10:49:26 PM | message detail

*shrugs*

Looks to me like Link has nearly 100% of Samus' voters sucked in, heh.
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JaKyL25 | Posted 11/14/2006 10:49:52 PM | message detail

I would say at LEAST 95% of Cloud voters choose Cloud because of FFVII. Either it's their favorite game, or they love it more than almost any other, or something. I'm willing to chalk another 5% up to pic factor/braket voting/Kindgom Hearts, and I think that's generous.

Of those 95% who just luuuuuv them some FFVII, do you honestly think almost half of them disliked Sephiroth enough to choose Link/Mario/Snake/Samus over him? I would guess most of the ones that don't go to Seph would go to Snake (and some to Link), but the vast majority would likely stay at home with FFVII, IMO.
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MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 10:51:29 PM | message detail

I do think that Link could manage just over 50% against Cloud/Sephiroth. Mario gone should help him out even more than Samus. =p

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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/14/2006 10:54:07 PM | message detail

Just a random thought here...but if Samus and many other popular Nintendo characters were thrown into this poll (Yoshi, Bowser, Ganon, Zelda, Kirby, Ness, and more if you like), would any of that be enough to let Cloud get ahead of Link as long as Sephiroth's still in?

I can't think of very many Nintendo characters that would hurt Cloud more than Link. If you throw enough Nintendo characters in it'll add up and Cloud will eventually have the advantage.

But I just find it crazy that Sephiroth is to receive 90% of Cloud votes while at least 3 other noble niners share less than 10% of the pie.

Link is drawing in roughly 80% of Samus' votes. Cloud and Sephiroth are from the same game. I expect Cloud to get a minimum of 85% of Sephiroth's votes, but it is probably closer to 90%.
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transience | Posted 11/14/2006 11:02:32 PM | message detail

for whatever it's worth, I voted for Cloud over Link and Link over Sephiroth last year.
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MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/14/2006 11:07:03 PM | message detail

Hmm. Link isn't dropping much at all here in comparison to yesterday where he was practically in a free fall after the Link Power Hour (oh yeah). From 1:00 to 2:00, he dropped 0.84% and it kept getting worse as time went on. From 1:00 to 2:00 here, he only dropped 0.24%.

I wonder how much better he'll do during the day than he did today.

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Chinballz | Posted 11/14/2006 11:07:52 PM | message detail

I feel sorry for what Cloud is going to endure on the last day, with TP coming out then.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/14/2006 11:14:02 PM | message detail

Hmm. Link isn't dropping much at all here in comparison to yesterday where he was practically in a free fall after the Link Power Hour (oh yeah). From 1:00 to 2:00, he dropped 0.84% and it kept getting worse as time went on. From 1:00 to 2:00 here, he only dropped 0.24%.

Percentage of votes for each hour:
Round 1
Time . | Link
02:00 | 27.47%
01:00 | 29.69%

Round 2
Time . | Link
02:00 | 35.35%
01:00 | 35.99%

Link is holding up much better this time around.
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Kaxon | Posted 11/14/2006 11:16:37 PM | message detail

Day 1 would look like this with Cloud gone and Seph receiving 50% of his votes:
Sephiroth - 45066
Link - 43679

If Sephiroth didn't beat Link in a poll with Mario, Samus, and without Cloud, it would be absolutely pathetic. I have no idea why you seem unwilling to accept the idea. Especially now that it looks like around 3/4 of Samus's votes have gone to Link, and by all logic Sephiroth should get a higher percentage of the Cloud voters.
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Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/14/2006 11:19:10 PM | message detail

What if Snake outlasts Sephiroth and makes it to the final three? How would that match look?

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HaRRicH | Posted 11/14/2006 11:19:40 PM | message detail

Very weird, with Solid losing pretty badly.
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MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/14/2006 11:23:55 PM | message detail

Ouch, Mario is getting creamed here. Snake is safe for at least another day...

MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/14/2006 11:31:54 PM | message detail

If Sephiroth didn't beat Link in a poll with Mario, Samus, and without Cloud, it would be absolutely pathetic.

Kaxon, you know what? You are completely right, I don't know how this escaped me in the first place -_- I still think 90% is a little high, but yeah my 50% theory looks to be way off, considering Link SFFs Mario and Samus to hell to begin with.

RPGuy96 | Posted 11/14/2006 11:32:25 PM | message detail

Kaxon | Posted 11/15/2006 12:46:13 AM | message detail

Kaxon, you know what? You are completely right, I don't know how this escaped me in the first place -_- I still think 90% is a little high, but yeah my 50% theory looks to be way off, considering Link SFFs Mario and Samus to hell to begin with.

Wow, I actually persuaded someone on an internet message board? First time for everything I guess. =)
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/15/2006 1:30:32 AM | message detail

Whoa Link! o_O
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 1:56:20 AM | message detail

So Sephiroth managed to do worse? ...What? I don't even understand that >_>
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MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/15/2006 1:57:05 AM | message detail

Snake is up 1200+ votes on Mario. Coming back from this is probably equivalent to coming back from 5000 down in a standard 1 on 1 match. Sad to say Jakyl, but it looks like you'll lose 16 points minimum.

ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/15/2006 2:01:56 AM | message detail

Sephiroth probably won't out-last Snake tomorrow... but it'll be cool to see how well Cloud does with Sephiroth gone.
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Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/15/2006 2:14:46 AM | message detail

"Sephiroth probably won't out-last Snake tomorrow... but it'll be cool to see how well Cloud does with Sephiroth gone."

Yeah. I can't wait to see how Link does after Mario is eliminated, as well as how both Cloud and Link do if Snake can outlast Sephiroth.

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Shadowdude II | Posted 11/15/2006 3:29:31 AM | message detail

Sephiroth is so screwed
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2006 3:31:22 AM | message detail

Cloud is doing 1% better with Sephiroth doing 1% worse. COINCIDENCE?

I wonder if the amount of SFF Seph experiences will be random each time. Maybe tomorrow it'll swing in the other direction!
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ffmasterjose | Posted 11/15/2006 3:33:17 AM | message detail

Wow man, Mario isn't doing too well >_>

*loses 8 points*
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Shadowdude II | Posted 11/15/2006 3:33:44 AM | message detail

Go Cloud !!
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