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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 429

LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 3:32:29 PM | message detail
Hmmm...Using Ryu 2004 isn't much different from holding Sonic constant. Meh.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 3:34:45 PM | message detail
no matter what we do, MM and Sonic are going to be within 1% of each other. it really isn't the NN that's the problem, it's everyone they affect. suddenly you've got characters we think of as midcarders at near-elite levels and that just looks/feels wrong. you can call previous perceptions into question and you'd be right, but that doesn't mean that I should throw them away because the numbers say different.
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zizzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2006 3:39:15 PM | message detail
From LeonhartForever Posted 11/13/2006 6:12:29 PM #227
And yet characters remaining relatively constant happens anyway.

Which honestly surprises the hell out of me.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2006 3:43:22 PM | message detail
And why not just slap 50.00 on Samus, adjust Yoshi down based on Dante last year and adjust Tifa down based on Tifa last year? Who cares if doing so means that Tifa scores like 41% on Samus in the stats? I never got the logic behind not being willing to move one character in a set, which is the entire reason the stats fail every year.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 3:44:53 PM | message detail
cause you've still got Zelda > MM/Crono/Sonic and Yuna > Auron that way.
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zizzy
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 3:47:18 PM | message detail
I think a "good" set of stats would have these adjustments:

Zelda = 35.00 (or Ganondorf)
Tifa = Vincent or a little bit below
Dante 2k5 = Dante 2k6

that "solves" the weirdness, though it's completely arbitrary and could very well be wrong.
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zizzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 3:52:38 PM | message detail
If things like Snake being non-linear and Tifa/Zelda overperforming on Samus are the problem (as I've heard it supposed), why don't we just go through each division individually and completely ignore them?

For Spazer, just use constant Rikku. Seems fair to Samus, though whether you want to adjust Rikku for overrating is your call.

For Limit, use Jill 2k3. That's likely more than fair to Tifa, and what the hey, if she still looks too low adjust Jill 2k3 up for Link/Samus SFF.

Combine Triforce/Aeon, and constant KOS-MOS probably yields a decent result (I'm not actually calculating these stats right now, just throwing 'em out there). Maybe adjust her up to 2k3 or even 2k4 values if you think her 2k5 value is just too low.

For Patriot, use constant Squall for Snake's fourpack and constant Dante for Yoshi's.

For Destiny...constant Gordon Freeman, I guess.

Combine Blast/Time, and adjust based on Luigi.

Then just plug 'em in and see what happens. << I'll do it when I get the chance, I guess.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 3:54:01 PM | message detail
Though if I'm thinking things through, the only Noble Nine hierarchy result that is off from how the hierarchy turned out this year is Mega Man decently below Sonic and Crono...which I honestly think would happen if they fought this year.
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Commit it to memory.
Mister Mario | Posted 11/13/2006 3:54:05 PM | message detail
Aaaaaaaaaand, over 53%.
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Z1mZum more like Z1mAwesome.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 3:54:58 PM | message detail
Wait, Samus is just now getting over 53%? Does anyone have percentage by the hour???
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Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 3:55:12 PM | message detail
constant KOS.. 2k4 or 2k5?
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zizzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 3:55:31 PM | message detail
Samus Aran – 45.35%
Solid Snake – 42.68%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 38.42%
Mega Man – 38.13%
Crono – 37.83%
Vincent Valentine – 36.81%
Squall Leonhart – 36.20%
Tifa Lockhart – 34.98%
Ganondorf – 34.91%
Princess Zelda – 34.91%
Sora – 34.87%
Yoshi – 34.50%
Auron – 34.42%
Dante Sparda – 34.12%
Bowser Koopa – 32.20%
Ryu – 32.00%
Riku – 30.91%
Luigi – 30.59%
Aeris Gainsborough – 30.11%
Yuna – 30.01%
Kirby – 29.17%
Leon Kennedy – 28.69%
Zero – 28.32%
Rikku – 28.12%
Sub-Zero – 27.79%
Kratos – 27.45%
Master Chief – 27.26%
Gordon Freeman – 25.15%
Alucard – 24.51%
Ryu Hayabusa – 23.75%
Princess Peach – 23.75%
Jill Valentine – 23.74%
Chun-Li – 23.50%
Kairi – 23.46%
KOS-MOS – 23.09%
Axel – 22.98%
Claire Redfield – 22.49%
Prince of Persia – 22.34%
Phoenix Wright – 21.03%
Lara Croft – 20.90%
Tidus – 20.26%
Captain Falcon – 19.55%
Ada Wong – 18.34%
Marle – 18.20%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 18.03%
The Boss – 17.80%
Tingle – 17.01%
Ivy Valentine – 16.66%
Nidoran F – 16.46%
Amy Rose – 15.97%
Soma Cruz – 15.24%
CATS – 14.79%
Kasumi – 14.69%
Terra Branford – 14.35%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 14.06%
Celes Chere – 13.86%
Joanna Dark – 13.17%
Roll – 12.42%
Sarah Kerrigan – 11.85%
Cortana – 10.48%
Carmen Sandiego – 9.72%
Alyx Vance – 9.38%
Jade – 8.84%
Princess Daisy – 8.03%
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 3:56:25 PM | message detail
I really like 2k5 (because it's more recent and I firmly believe Ryu 2k4 is overrated), but some would think that's being unfair to Zelda. I'm really indifferent, none of KOS's values should make Zelda do anything *too* extreme.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 3:56:29 PM | message detail
Vincent Valentine – 36.81%
Ganondorf – 34.91%

Auron – 34.42%
Dante Sparda – 34.12%

hmm...
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zizzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 3:57:15 PM | message detail
I've thought KOS-MOS 2005 was an anomaly from the start, so I didn't use it.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 3:58:31 PM | message detail
I was more worried about Aeris than I was Zelda, but that's gonna make that entire division look pretty bad. would Zelda even outrank her 2k5 number? and Aeris becomes a mere midcarder, which despite her performance this year I have trouble grasping.
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zizzy
WarThaNemesis | Posted 11/13/2006 3:58:37 PM | message detail
CATS would SFF Nidoran F to hell and back >_>

Wait...Nidoran F > good portion of the female bracket? XDDDDD
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The Cream of Smurf FODDER
War13104, what is he good for?
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 4:00:16 PM | message detail
Hmm...I guess use KOS 2k3 or 2k4 then. Or Aeris 2k2 if you want to use something arbitrary that "feels" right.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 4:11:52 PM | message detail

I would have liked constant Mega Man, but regardless of what the stats say I believe he fell. MM getting a comparable percentage on Sora as Crono got on Auron is extremely telling, and there's no way I'd take him over Sonic or Crono in a match. Or even for him to get above 49%, really. Snake may have just overperformed on Sonic for whatever reason (which is really strange, because Sonic had the picture advantage in every match).


I fail to see why constant Mega Man wouldn't work, considering he scored roughly the same percentage as Sonic did on a constant Snake. I don't understand why nobody wants to believe FF12 influx gave Sora, Auron and Yuna another 2-3% in their matches. Adjust those 3 down, and you get rid of half of your anomalies. Give Tifa 2% better than her 2k5 value and use constant Sonic/MM/Crono and the only glaring anomalies are Yoshi related and Zero being weaker than ass.

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 4:12:32 PM | message detail
And by constant Snake, I mean the same percentage on the same opponent within 3 days of eachother.

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
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LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 4:13:35 PM | message detail
I don't understand why nobody wants to believe FF12 influx gave Sora, Auron and Yuna another 2-3% in their matches.

...Because that's stupid.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 4:14:25 PM | message detail
Then you explain it Leon.

The game sold 1.5 million copies within a week. Of course you're going to have alot of people looking for FAQs that are fans of the series.

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 4:15:01 PM | message detail
That is, if you really want to use my idea. Let me do a quick adjustment of the Noble Nine based on my ideas:

Samus Aran - 42.82
Solid Snake - 41.45
Sonic the Hedgehog - 39.33
Crono - 38.72
Mega Man - 34.53

If anyone wonders, Snake gets 48% on Samus in these stats, Sonic gets 47.5% on Snake, and Mega Man...well, obviously looks pretty bad. Even I can't imagine him that low, but I don't know how the hell to adjust him...unless we just take his match with Snake as canon, since it projects him to be safely under Sonic and Crono with these numbers.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 4:15:12 PM | message detail
Ahh, we're getting into the "Why the Devil Division is overrated" territory again.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 4:15:54 PM | message detail
Turtle is arguing nonsense. When he explains to me how Sora = Auron (and the FFXII influx should have helped Auron MORE), I'll take him seriously.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 4:15:59 PM | message detail
Somebody make a set of stats based on what I said and we'll see how they look.

Also, you might want to base Samus off of the 2% higher than 2k5 Tifa unless you plan on using her as our Base Link

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 4:16:28 PM | message detail
From Karma Hunter
Turtle is arguing nonsense. When he explains to me how Sora = Auron (and the FFXII influx should have helped Auron MORE), I'll take him seriously.

KH2?

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 4:17:01 PM | message detail
please lurk more
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zizzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 4:17:14 PM | message detail
...No, I am not adjusting Sora down closer to Riku.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2006 4:17:33 PM | message detail
From Karma Hunter Posted 11/13/2006 7:15:54 PM #275
Turtle is arguing nonsense.

This is news?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 4:17:47 PM | message detail
KH2?

The fact that Auron was already MUCH stronger than Sora and should have enjoyed the benefits of a full-fledged KH2F tells me you're full of crap. Sora is not anywhere near Auron. Not directly. Not indirectly. Not ever. The man got as much on Gordon Freeman as Auron did on Alucard.

Not indirectly. Not ever.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 4:17:50 PM | message detail
Is it going to take Sora comfortably beating somebody like Kirby next year before he's accepted as a high midcarder? Sora has more reason to boost from KH2 than Auron does.

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 4:19:01 PM | message detail
Nah, people know Sora's strong, but he's not beating Auron, nor is he going 50/50 with Ganondorf.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 4:19:06 PM | message detail
Hell, Sora got significantly worse on Gordon Freeman, at that.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 4:19:17 PM | message detail
From LeonhartForever
...No, I am not adjusting Sora down closer to Riku.

Riku was behind Solid ****. Adjust Yoshi down the extent Bowser dropped from last year based on constant Crono and Riku will be looking better. Or assume constant Dante there.

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 4:19:46 PM | message detail
From Karma Hunter
Hell, Sora got significantly worse on Gordon Freeman, at that.

I thought we decided Gordon was non-linear?

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 4:20:09 PM | message detail
I already adjusted Riku down, and I am not getting Sora within 1-2% of him by knocking him down.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 4:20:38 PM | message detail
Nobody's non-linear to that extent.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 4:24:04 PM | message detail
Sora's 4% higher than Riku. If you adjust Yoshi and Sora down the same amount, that's still a 4% difference.

Or is it so hard to believe Riku might actually be a force? I think Axel breaking 30% on Mega Man already proved that KH side characters aren't nearly as fodderific as people are assuming. KH2 was a big game this year, and from the sounds of it, gave Sora the clout he needed to actually be liked by the KH fanbase. I would assume Riku is the same way.

Riku was also behind Frog last year, so he could be anywhere.

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 4:24:36 PM | message detail
Oh, nvm.

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 4:24:49 PM | message detail
Okay, so just taking the Snake match as canon puts Mega Man at 37.03, which means he's right around Snake's 2k5 value.

So basically, my ideas are:

Samus Aran - 42.82 (a half point above Samus 2k4)
Solid Snake - 41.45 (equal to adjusted Samus 2k5)
Sonic the Hedgehog - 39.33 (a little below Crono 2k5)
Crono - 38.72 (a little above Sonic 2k5)
Mega Man - 37.03 (equal to Snake 2k5)

...how's that for stretching logic to make things "look better"?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 4:24:54 PM | message detail
Enough with the Frog wildcard crap! It's not true!
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 4:26:09 PM | message detail
those do "look" good - how do the near-elites look? Zelda, Yoshi, Tifa?
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zizzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 4:26:44 PM | message detail
I'd say MM looks a little too low there. Bump him up to a little under Crono and it would look right to me.

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2006 4:28:13 PM | message detail
Just out of curiosity, what happens if you use Dante's 2k5 number for Riku?

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 4:34:15 PM | message detail
You mean adjusting by those numbers? As insane as always, though it's more to do with their rank than any number. If you want to know my proposed adjustments...

Yoshi is based on Dante 2k5, so he's simple, around 33.09 on BL.
Tifa based on Jill 2003, hmm...YIKES, 37.38 on BL. So much for that one making sense.
Zelda based on KOS-MOS 2004 is at 36.64 on BL...darn you female bracket.

Let me try some different numbers for Tifa and Zelda...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 4:35:57 PM | message detail
heh, well look at it like the VC - even if the female side is borked, it's only affecting a few characters of note. put asterisks on Yuna/Zelda/Aeris/Tifa just like we did Bowser/Ganon.
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zizzy
trizob the hedgehog | Posted 11/13/2006 4:38:49 PM | message detail
Maybe for Zelda and Tifa you can just average their 2K5 and 2K6 values together. I mean, Tifa obviously wouldn't take down any NNer, but I guess she must have boosted with how well she did.
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"No, not just an urge - more than that. It was my destiny to be here; in the box."
- Naked Snake
Keno316 | Posted 11/13/2006 4:39:40 PM | message detail
Tifa based on Jill 2003, hmm...YIKES, 37.38 on BL. So much for that one making sense.
Zelda based on KOS-MOS 2004 is at 36.64 on BL...darn you female bracket.

Let me try some different numbers for Tifa and Zelda...


...Just let them keep those numbers til next year. >>
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 4:41:27 PM | message detail
I really don't have that much of a problem with Tifa being at 37%. I think she's more than likely around 34 or 35, but I won't mind it if she's up there.

the only thing that makes them suspect is how she's so far removed from Auron. I'd expect Auron to boost just as much as you just don't see it in those numbers.
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zizzy