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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 429

Keno316 | Posted 11/13/2006 12:38:10 PM | message detail
So Tifa will end up #2...

...You Go girl!


Man, based on what she managed to do on Samus (albeit as a result of a set of coincidences) a match between her and Zelda this year would have been great to see.


Still...this result is SO gonna screw up the male side in the stats...Exactly how many girls are likely to end up above Zero? 0_o
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 12:39:12 PM | message detail
HAY THE POLL IS FIXED COMEBACK TIME
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 12:43:07 PM | message detail
NO DON'T GO UP GO DOWN
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 12:43:42 PM | message detail
So that's why Samus wasn't winning by more! Silly poll glitch!

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
Mister Mario | Posted 11/13/2006 12:44:43 PM | message detail
She's been tearing into him for about an hour now. It's nice to see.
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Z1mZum more like Z1mAwesome.
Support Toadette in the S2k6 Character Contest!
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/13/2006 12:45:56 PM | message detail
Link 27%
Snake 19%
Cloud 18%
Mario 16%
Sephiroth 15%
Samus 5%

Battle Royale, book it!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 12:46:46 PM | message detail
Link is getting over 30%+.

Book that

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 12:48:27 PM | message detail
HM, do you really think that Link can get over 36% in the first day of the Battle Royale?

Because I've been running the scenarios over and over in my head and I'm coming to the conclusion it could be virtually impossible.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/13/2006 12:49:16 PM | message detail
If Link got 36% tomorrow, I'd run into a spiked wall naked with a hard-on.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 12:49:30 PM | message detail
Shush. I wanted to end the contest in an HM-esque manner. =p

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 12:57:47 PM | message detail
Damn Samus...this is awesome.

woo samus was underrated!
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Moltar Status: 10th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Samus vs. Snake - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (120/160)
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/13/2006 1:00:12 PM | message detail
^5 MOLTAR IMHO

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 1:10:39 PM | message detail
I also guess this kinda confirms Snake was getting some Nintendo help, though I'd like to believe this is all legit. If only we looked at that match with Yoshi a bit closer and blamed the overperformance on SFF than the sprite!!

And if only my alt bracket was for prizes, then I'd have a real good shot at getting something...
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Moltar Status: 10th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Samus vs. Snake - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (120/160)
RPGGamer0 | Posted 11/13/2006 1:12:19 PM | message detail
Link 27%
Snake 19%
Cloud 18%
Mario 16%
Sephiroth 15%
Samus 5%


You don't know how weird it is seeing Link at that low a percentage.

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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior, and those of you that ignore them will pay the dearest cost.
wavedash101 | Posted 11/13/2006 1:13:51 PM | message detail
USE THE NINTENDO SFF TO GET THROUGH, SAMUS!

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 1:56:39 PM | message detail
Bleh, how disappointing for Snake to look this impressive the entire contest, only to lose.

Male Bracket

Solid Snake – 50.00%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 45.01%
Mega Man – 44.67%
Crono – 44.32%
Vincent Valentine – 43.13%
Yoshi – 42.84%
Squall Leonhart – 42.41%
Dante Sparda – 42.37%
Ganondorf – 40.90%
Sora – 40.85%
Auron – 40.33%
Riku – 38.38%
Bowser Koopa – 37.73%
Ryu – 37.49%
Luigi – 35.84%
Kirby – 34.18%
Leon Kennedy – 33.62%
Zero – 33.18%
Sub-Zero – 32.57%
Kratos – 32.16%
Master Chief – 31.95%
Ryu Hayabusa – 29.49%
Gordon Freeman – 29.47%
Alucard – 28.72%
Axel – 26.92%
Prince of Persia – 26.18%
Phoenix Wright – 24.63%
Tidus – 23.73%
Captain Falcon – 22.91%
Tingle – 19.93%
Soma Cruz – 17.85%
CATS – 17.34%

Ideal bracket based on the stats:

Patriot Division

(1) Solid Snake
(8) CATS

(4) Kirby
(5) Leon Kennedy

(3) Ganondorf
(6) Alucard

(2) Dante Sparda
(7) Axel

Time Division

(1) Crono
(8) Captain Falcon

(4) Bowser Koopa
(5) Kratos

(3) Riku
(6) Master Chief

(2) Vincent Valentine
(7) Tidus

20XX Division

(1) Mega Man
(8) Tingle

(4) Ryu
(5) Sub-Zero

(3) Auron
(6) Ryu Hayabusa

(2) Yoshi
(7) Phoenix Wright

Blast Division

(1) Sonic the Hedgehog
(8) Soma Cruz

(4) Luigi
(5) Zero

(3) Sora
(6) Gordon Freeman

(2) Squall Leonhart
(7) Prince of Persia


I'll get working on the final stats now.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/13/2006 2:02:13 PM | message detail
I thought of that (and Aeris' pitiful showing against Zelda doesn't seem to hurt that argument), but what the hell happened then with Mario/Cloud? lol 2k2?

Again, Mario vs. Cloud was the biggest day EVER for GameFAQs. I don't think you can deny an influx of new voters.

As for Aeris vs. Zelda, Aeris's looking as good as ever now. A team Zelda boost has happened every year since 2k3, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another one now (of course, not to the extent that Zelda crushes Crono/Sonic/MM, but a boost nonetheless).
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Keno316 | Posted 11/13/2006 2:04:58 PM | message detail

(4) Ryu
(5) Sub-Zero



Now that would have been a match to see.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 2:12:28 PM | message detail
Samus Aran – 50.00%
Tifa Lockhart – 49.51%
Solid Snake – 47.35%
Princess Zelda – 44.73%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 42.62%
Mega Man – 42.30%
Crono – 41.97%
Vincent Valentine – 40.84%
Yoshi – 40.57%
Squall Leonhart – 40.16%
Dante Sparda – 40.12%
Ganondorf – 38.72%
Sora – 38.68%
Aeris Gainsborough – 38.58%
Yuna – 38.45%
Auron – 38.19%
Riku – 36.35%
Bowser Koopa – 35.72%
Ryu – 35.50%
Luigi – 33.93%
Princess Peach – 33.62%
Jill Valentine – 33.61%
Kirby – 32.36%
Leon Kennedy – 31.83%
Zero – 31.41%
Rikku – 31.00%
Sub-Zero – 30.84%
Kratos – 30.45%
Master Chief – 30.25%
Chun-Li – 30.11%
KOS-MOS – 29.59%
Ryu Hayabusa – 27.93%
Gordon Freeman – 27.90%
Alucard – 27.19%
Lara Croft – 26.78%
Kairi – 25.87%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 25.52%
Axel – 25.49%
The Boss – 25.20%
Claire Redfield – 24.79%
Prince of Persia – 24.79%
Ivy Valentine – 23.59%
Phoenix Wright – 23.33%
Marle – 23.32%
Tidus – 22.47%
Captain Falcon – 21.69%
Amy Rose – 20.46%
Ada Wong – 20.22%
Celes Chere – 19.62%
Tingle – 18.87%
Kasumi – 18.82%
Terra Branford – 18.38%
Nidoran F – 18.15%
Soma Cruz – 16.90%
Joanna Dark – 16.88%
CATS – 16.41%
Roll – 15.92%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 15.50%
Sarah Kerrigan – 15.19%
Cortana – 13.43%
Carmen Sandiego – 12.45%
Alyx Vance – 12.02%
Princess Daisy – 11.36%
Jade – 9.75%


...Man, these stats suck. Either Samus is actually overperforming today or Tifa wasn't the only female who overperformed on her.

Yuna > Auron? Not to mention Yuna being a legitimate threat to beat the one who beat her last year with 60%? Jill > Leon? Princess Peach in the same universe as Luigi and Bowser? Aeris actually looking to do respectably on the Noble Nine despite the crappy performance she put up in this contest?

No thanks, BRO!

Either way, ideal bracket based on the stats coming up.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/13/2006 2:15:18 PM | message detail
takes on a very overrated Chunners (lol 55% on Lara

What? Chun Li's about as overrated as Ryu is.

...Man, these stats suck. Either Samus is actually overperforming today or Tifa wasn't the only female who overperformed on her.

Ha! I knew there was something to the Female Bracket Factor!

Yuna > Auron? Not to mention Yuna being a legitimate threat to beat the one who beat her last year with 60%? Jill > Leon? Princess Peach in the same universe as Luigi and Bowser? Aeris actually looking to do respectably on the Noble Nine despite the crappy performance she put up in this contest?

And all of those problems come from Sonic's half of the male bracket. It's really looking like there's some sort of weird Snake overperformance on Sonic that occured.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 2:18:23 PM | message detail
Hmmm...Now that you mention it, Ryu IS projected to beat Rikku by more than he did last year. Still, Mega Man's and Snake's divisions were full of weird things anyway.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/13/2006 2:18:36 PM | message detail
When something goes that funky, I just remind myself that the stats aren't perfectly linear, and there's going to be stupid anomalies like that, especially when you're talking about fodder who more than likely have a low ceiling, making midcarders be able to perform similarly to elites on them.

At the same time, those overperformances do seem to imply something. Zelda and Yuna both overperformed on Terra/Joanna, and guess what? They both ended up looking like they got great boosts! I think that's more than just a coincidence.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 2:18:48 PM | message detail
I'm bored...

Patriot Division

(1) Solid Snake
(8) CATS

(4) Kirby
(5) Leon Kennedy

(3) Ganondorf
(6) Alucard

(2) Dante Sparda
(7) Axel


Dante/Ganon and Kirby/Leon would be pretty cool to see. I'm also sure pre-Contest, some people would have taken Ganon > Snake... It sucks that Snake would have owned both Kirby and Ganon though...

Time Division

(1) Crono
(8) Captain Falcon

(4) Bowser Koopa
(5) Kratos

(3) Riku
(6) Master Chief

(2) Vincent Valentine
(7) Tidus


Riku/Chief? Oh man, that would have been crazy. After KH2, I'm sure Riku would have been the board favorite though. We'd complain about Crono/Vincent 2 though.

20XX Division

(1) Mega Man
(8) Tingle

(4) Ryu
(5) Sub-Zero

(3) Auron
(6) Ryu Hayabusa

(2) Yoshi
(7) Phoenix Wright


I wonder how Ryu/Subbie would have gone. I'd think there would be something fishy there. Auron/Yoshi debate saves this division from being pretty boring. Mega/Auron would be pretty close though.

Blast Division

(1) Sonic the Hedgehog
(8) Soma Cruz

(4) Luigi
(5) Zero

(3) Sora
(6) Gordon Freeman

(2) Squall Leonhart
(7) Prince of Persia


Sonic/Squall may have been a popular upset pick. Otherwise, this division is a total snore (Save Zero/Luigi debate).
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Moltar Status: 10th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Samus vs. Snake - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (120/160)
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/13/2006 2:20:29 PM | message detail
Hmmm...Now that you mention it, Ryu IS projected to beat Rikku by more than he did last year. Still, Mega Man's and Snake's divisions were full of weird things anyway.

Well, yeah, Yoshi's fourpack is odd, but we've known it would be since before the contest began. I don't think MM's division contains anything too odd (after adjusting Sonic up), does it?
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 2:22:23 PM | message detail
Bowser Koopa – 35.72%
Ryu – 35.50%
Luigi – 33.93%
Princess Peach – 33.62%
Jill Valentine – 33.61%

Kirby – 32.36%
Leon Kennedy – 31.83%
Zero – 31.41%


dot dot dot

Can we PLEASE adjust Tifa's division down? That's just downright sick.
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Moltar Status: 10th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Samus vs. Snake - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (120/160)
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 2:22:50 PM | message detail
Not really anything odd (other than Gordon and Phoenix, of course), but a lot of unknowns, I suppose.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 2:23:27 PM | message detail
Adjust her down based on what? Honestly, it's looking like Zelda needs to go down, too.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
BDawg | Posted 11/13/2006 2:23:32 PM | message detail
All together now 1, 2, 3...

LOL X-STATS
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Should I start running now?
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/13/2006 2:26:03 PM | message detail
Adjust her down based on what? Honestly, it's looking like Zelda needs to go down, too.

Ganon = Zelda = Tifa = Vincent 2k5? Heh, that's pretty arbitrary, but it may actually make sense, as far as the stats are concerned.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/13/2006 2:26:13 PM | message detail
So Jill's back to beating Kirby and Peach really is equal to Luigi?

lol x-stats.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2006 2:26:27 PM | message detail
Yeah, Zelda's too high as well.

I dunno, use Tifa 2k5 (though she probably boosted)? Jill 2k4?
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Moltar Status: 10th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Samus vs. Snake - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (120/160)
Keno316 | Posted 11/13/2006 2:28:34 PM | message detail
There's no way I see Tifa at 2k5 level. If anything, just split her performance to half ZSS, half her.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
Keno316 | Posted 11/13/2006 2:29:00 PM | message detail
Er..by performance, I mean her overperformance.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
Big Bob | Posted 11/13/2006 2:29:43 PM | message detail
Zero – 31.41%
Rikku – 31.00%
Sub-Zero – 30.84%


Dammit, it just doesn't WORK anymore!
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
Lopen | Posted 11/13/2006 2:33:16 PM | message detail
Dante Sparda – 42.37%
Ganondorf – 40.90%


Oh yes!
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/13/2006 2:35:17 PM | message detail
I dunno, use Tifa 2k5 (though she probably boosted)? Jill 2k4?

I think Jill 2004 makes Tifa drop. I might end up making Ganon equal to Zelda since they were so close last year. I'll figure out something (probably arbitrary) for Tifa.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 2:35:22 PM | message detail
Adjust her down based on what? Honestly, it's looking like Zelda needs to go down, too.

if anything needs to go down, it's Samus.. which doesn't really work obviously. we just have some seriously messed up stats.
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zizzy
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 2:36:13 PM | message detail
how about trying Jill/Peach = Ryu Hayabusa? seems as reasonable as anything else.
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zizzy
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/13/2006 2:36:16 PM | message detail
I dunno, use Tifa 2k5 (though she probably boosted)? Jill 2k4?

Again, boosting up to Vincent 2k5's level seems tremendously reasonable. KH2 and AC should've done at least that much.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/13/2006 2:37:23 PM | message detail
if anything needs to go down, it's Samus.. which doesn't really work obviously. we just have some seriously messed up stats.

Why's that? I still haven't heard a good explanation for Samus not benefiting from the Nintendo boost last year.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 2:38:02 PM | message detail
how about trying Jill/Peach = Ryu Hayabusa? seems as reasonable as anything else.

You don't have a problem with Yoshi's ranking? >>

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 2:39:06 PM | message detail
not this year's Ryu.. 2k5's. isn't Jill/Ryu 2k4 behind Arabusa? if you believe in that stuff, she might be underrated. Ryu looked a lot better in 2k5.
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zizzy
Lopen | Posted 11/13/2006 2:40:46 PM | message detail
Jill's not "behind Arabusa" because she fought Arabusa as well. There's nothing fishy there.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/13/2006 2:41:09 PM | message detail
not this year's Ryu.. 2k5's. isn't Jill/Ryu 2k4 behind Arabusa? if you believe in that stuff, she might be underrated. Ryu looked a lot better in 2k5.

Yeah, but Jill was also behind Prince of Busa, which would make it seemed like Jill overperformed in her match with Ryu too.

And besides, Hayabusa 2k5 is behind Zero...whatever that means.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 2:41:16 PM | message detail
Oh! Well, that makes more sense.

Anyone know where that puts Yoshi and Dante?

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 2:41:53 PM | message detail
And besides, Hayabusa 2k5 is behind Zero...whatever that means.

There wasn't any problem with Zero's value in 2005.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2006 2:42:13 PM | message detail
ah, my bad then. yeah, I have no idea what to do with it.

you know, I think people should just make up numbers and compile their own stats. I bet they'd be more accurate than trying to find a combination that makes the stats "make sense".
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zizzy
Lopen | Posted 11/13/2006 2:42:46 PM | message detail
Whatever, Prince of Busa, Arabusa... I don't care! Arabusa and Prince of Busa go 50/50 if you ask me. Whereas Hayabusa takes them both out pretty easily.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Big Bob | Posted 11/13/2006 2:45:53 PM | message detail
One thing I nailed last year is that I suggested the whole Devil Division get adjusted down except Vincent.

And whaddya know, I was right!
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/13/2006 2:46:35 PM | message detail
Also, Tifa through Hayabusa 2k5 puts her a little under Vincent 2k5, and equal to Kirby 2k5. Whether or not Jill is underrated in 2k4, I'm willing to believe that RE4 caused a REvival (or should that be revivication, lolol) for the entire series.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda