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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 429

transience | Posted 11/13/2006 11:25:43 AM | message detail
and no way this gets rerun. not a chance in hell. it's still going to pick up a crapload of votes, it's just not up to the level of the past few weeks.
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xyzzy
Mister Mario | Posted 11/13/2006 11:27:25 AM | message detail
Have you guys actually played demos of Sonic the Hedgehog? Because let me be the first to tell you, it's bloody awful. It plays exactly like Sonic Adventure, with all it's miriad of problems, only it looks prettier. It won't do jack for Sonic. Secret Rings actually looks alright, but I don't know how much it'll boost him.
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Z1mZum more like Z1mAwesome.
Support Toadette in the S2k6 Character Contest!
transience | Posted 11/13/2006 11:27:43 AM | message detail
I just checked the poll in both firefox and ie and it looks fine to me. I don't even know what the problem is, but I assume it's just pushed some down the page.
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xyzzy
Yesmar | Posted 11/13/2006 11:29:49 AM | message detail
I sent a feedback ticket:

have a question or concern about a GameFAQs contest.

Message From Yesmar88 at 2006-11-13 19:27:50

The poll for today's match keeps randomly glitching to the middle of the page for several browsers. Internet Explorer is the only one I know for sure. Considering the fact that the rest of the polls for the contest were at the top of the screen, I really think a re-do should be done. The vote totals are awful in comparison to other matches of this caliber, and I think this shows that something is up. I know that polls have been redone in the past when problems like this occur, so I'm writing to alert someone to this issue.

Feedback Status: Open - Your feedback has been sent but not yet responded to by GameFAQs.

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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Drakeryn | Posted 11/13/2006 11:31:18 AM | message detail
How's your resolution?

My resolution is 1400 x 1050, and as always the poll is right below the "Now On Gamespot" box. For whatever reason, all the content gets shifted to the left column on my computer, leaving a blank gray right column.

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Man will gain wings, and the sky will return to the world.
DeepHyren12 | Posted 11/13/2006 11:31:18 AM | message detail
so, are we attributing Tifa overperformance to ZSS/FFXII factor, and Zelda to rSFF, or what? Cause if I'm right, this result should put Tifa over the bottom 3 members of the NN and put Zelda uncomfortably close to them ,if not over them.
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"Some say there's no subtelty to destruction. You know what? They're dead!" --Jaya Ballard, Task Mage.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 11:31:51 AM | message detail
Wait uh take it back I don't want a redo anymore!

Yeah, I said it. Snake has plenty of time to own faces in later contests, Samus' included. This may be our last chance for Cloud > Link. =/
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 11:32:43 AM | message detail
Unless Snake comes back and flat-out wins, Zelda will be above the rest of the male bracket.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 11:33:00 AM | message detail
...A whole stats topic of someone complaining about their poll position?

GAWD DUMB SNAKE FANBOYS

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
transience | Posted 11/13/2006 11:34:08 AM | message detail
am I crazy to think that Wii release day wouldn't help Link at all? it would need to be a couple days later to really affect the poll. heck, I wouldn't be amazed if it hurt him because people were playing TP instead of searching for FAQs. I think the difference would be inconclusive at best.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 11:34:20 AM | message detail
I wanna see how many topics get filled when Cloud > Link !!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/13/2006 11:34:41 AM | message detail
"Wait uh take it back I don't want a redo anymore!

Yeah, I said it. Snake has plenty of time to own faces in later contests, Samus' included. This may be our last chance for Cloud > Link. =/
"

Watch CJay have a break between this match and the BR now. : D

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Can't think of a good sig.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 11:35:28 AM | message detail
I thought of that (and Aeris' pitiful showing against Zelda doesn't seem to hurt that argument), but what the hell happened then with Mario/Cloud? lol 2k2?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 11:35:29 AM | message detail
You know, I've gone from "Man, I hope we get a break!" to "Holy crap no I don't want a break" because I at least want to see Link kick Cloud's ass before I disappear to play Twilight Princess. =(

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
transience | Posted 11/13/2006 11:36:37 AM | message detail
I believe lol 2k2 had more to do with it than either of the other "factors". they're both impossible to measure and if you think one Nintendo website is going to rally 30,000 votes, Zelda's win over Final Fantasy is illegitimate.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 11:42:07 AM | message detail
...I'm down for believing the latter idea.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2006 11:42:53 AM | message detail
What was the reason for Ryu Hayabusa/Jill getting rerun?
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"........!" ~Magus
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 11:43:37 AM | message detail
A glitch in the server that caused like half the vistors to still see the old poll (Sora/HK-47).
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Yesmar | Posted 11/13/2006 11:43:51 AM | message detail
What was the reason for Ryu Hayabusa/Jill getting rerun?

The poll would randomly display the poll from the day before and you would have to keep refreshing until you got it.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/13/2006 11:45:11 AM | message detail
Samus has gotten enough respect - she gets trashed for being a leech and unable to SFF things, but then people who hump the stats a bit too much ('sup, EC) even it all out.

Not really... I actually go against the lolers plenty of times. In the guru contest my bracket was filled with more upsets than almost anybody. Just because Samus was underrated in 2K5 doesn't mean I hump stats! Though I would.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2006 11:45:54 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/13/2006 11:55:18 AM | message detail
and I don't think this is Samus being underrated or whatever - Zelda and Tifa pretty much eliminate that idea, plus Yuna will end up at a level I'm so not ready to give her. I think this is Snake's SSB votes evaporating when going up against a SSB favourite.

Not really. Tifa is as explainable as ZSS, and Zelda? rSFF caused by SSB. I actually have to buy HaRR's crazy SSB tier thing now, except I don't think it's tiers so much as it is friendly casual usage. I'm not taking Ganon to do any better this year on Samus than he did last year. (Why should I?), and Zelda is not suddenly leagues stronger than him, hell I think he's probably stronger indirectly on a non-SSB opponent.

At the same time, I think Samus is definitely benefitting from some of Snake's support from SSB fading away (if that's what boosted him in the first place... it's as good of a reason as any though).

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
transience | Posted 11/13/2006 12:02:52 PM | message detail
if that isn't it, I'm awfully confused, to be honest. unless you think an MGS4 trailer had more impact than a SSB trailer on today's GameFAQs. I'm not buying that, though I do think it probably helped.

it's kinda funny - in some weird way, Samus is SFFing someone if that really is the case. I don't buy the SSB tier thing, I just buy that this is a different year. Ganondorf did 4% better on Yuna than Zelda, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. I don't believe Zelda rSFFed Samus at all.

regardless, we've got some wonky stats for next year. usually our anomalies happen in one fourpack or something, but this year they're affecting the entirety of the stats. I've been thinking all contest that Snake is simply nonlinear and this match is as good of evidence as anything.
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xyzzy
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/13/2006 12:06:15 PM | message detail
I'd also like to throw out using constant Luigi and extrapolating from there...

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
transience | Posted 11/13/2006 12:07:32 PM | message detail
constant Luigi is essentially constant Sonic, no?
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 12:08:06 PM | message detail
constant Luigi is essentially constant Sonic, no?

It makes him pretty much even with Crono.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/13/2006 12:12:29 PM | message detail
if that isn't it, I'm awfully confused, to be honest. unless you think an MGS4 trailer had more impact than a SSB trailer on today's GameFAQs. I'm not buying that, though I do think it probably helped.

No, I agree... I'm just having a hard time understanding how it boosts him that goddamn much.

it's kinda funny - in some weird way, Samus is SFFing someone if that really is the case. I don't buy the SSB tier thing, I just buy that this is a different year. Ganondorf did 4% better on Yuna than Zelda, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. I don't believe Zelda rSFFed Samus at all.

But what reason does Yuna have to be any stronger than last year? She doesn't... yeah she was underrated, but when talking about direct matches between Ganon and Zelda, that doesn't come into play. There's no way Yuna does 4% better on Zelda, then Zelda does 4% better on Samus. That's just ridiculous when there's no reason to suspect anything possibly going awry. Zelda/Samus had plenty of reason to, and people were calling for rSFF before we even got the first match underway. I didn't believe it then, but after seeing that match, and then today's, I think it's silly to ignore it.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 12:12:32 PM | message detail
After being the Star of the Contest for two rounds straight, the best Luigi can do is 'constant'? How depressing.

I would have liked constant Mega Man, but regardless of what the stats say I believe he fell. MM getting a comparable percentage on Sora as Crono got on Auron is extremely telling, and there's no way I'd take him over Sonic or Crono in a match. Or even for him to get above 49%, really. Snake may have just overperformed on Sonic for whatever reason (which is really strange, because Sonic had the picture advantage in every match).

Ryu and Rikku will probably maintain their proportion from 2k5, so maybe them after adjusting for Bowser? Though that presumes a constant Crono, so we may as well just use him...but then EVERYONE'S crazy-high.

MC is laughable, Zelda went crazy, Yuna went crazy, lol Tifa, Yoshi's overrated, Sora boosted, Gordon Freeman is probably weird, Zero looked like crap, I ain't trusting Kirby or Hayabusa, KH2 for Auron, Vincent boosted, probably Ganon too, Sonic looked decently better, Bowser was overrated, Leon probably boosted...

...yeah, this year's stats are borked.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 12:14:11 PM | message detail
Yuna just looked stronger this year, plain and simple -- no way in hell Ganondorf breaks 60% on her again. She's the best evidence this year that you really don't need a real reason to boost.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 12:15:41 PM | message detail
She was in KH2 for whatever it's worth -- not much, admittedly, because her role in the game was pretty crappy.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/13/2006 12:15:56 PM | message detail
You have nothing to compare her with other than an underrated Ganon. There's no way you can say she went crazy without having a very high chance of talking out your bum. There's really not much of any reason for her to do so, I'm not buying random massive increase.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/13/2006 12:16:28 PM | message detail
She was in KH2 for whatever it's worth -- not much, admittedly, because her role in the game was pretty crappy.

Hey look, just like Aeris!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
WarThaNemesis | Posted 11/13/2006 12:16:56 PM | message detail
I'm going to stand by the FFXII influx benefitting Yuna and Tifa for when I make my 2k7 predictions, most likely.

>_>
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The Cream of Smurf FODDER
War13104, what is he good for?
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 12:17:33 PM | message detail
The increase isn't THAT massive -- and I'm telling you right now, Zelda isn't THAT much stronger than Ganon, if she even is at all. That's not talking out of my ass, that's common sense.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 12:19:06 PM | message detail
Or you could attribute it to the FFXII influx, but that seems rather unlikely.

Hey look, just like Aeris!

The characters who were already in Kingdom Hearts didn't exactly look like they boosted this year either. She's not the best example, although she certainly doesn't look she lost much of a step after Zelda's solid performance, which I'm not buying was rSFF after seeing her not quite even be able to break 45%. You could say that she resisted SFF, although people don't exactly like to believe that Samus can SFF people.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/13/2006 12:20:38 PM | message detail
The increase isn't THAT massive -- and I'm telling you right now, Zelda isn't THAT much stronger than Ganon, if she even is at all. That's not talking out of my ass, that's common sense.

I agree... but I don't think Ganon suddenly boosted this year either. It's because Zelda rSFFed her is what I'm saying. Basically we both believe the same thing, except you believe they boosted for no reason, while I think they're the same as last year. If what you're saying it correct, kiss Cloud's chances goodbye.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 12:23:15 PM | message detail
I agree... but I don't think Ganon suddenly boosted this year either. It's because Zelda rSFFed her is what I'm saying. Basically we both believe the same thing, except you believe they boosted for no reason, while I think they're the same as last year. If what you're saying it correct, kiss Cloud's chances goodbye.

I don't know what happened with Samus/Zelda, I just know that it's wrong ('cause guess what HM she's not beating Sonic/MM/Crono!), but even a constant Zelda leaves Yuna to be stronger this year. If Yuna can get 43% on Zelda, I have a hard time seeing Ganon crack that 60%+ mark again. It doesn't have to be anything drastic, but I definitely believe Yuna boosted. She just looked sensational in every single match.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 12:24:47 PM | message detail
I honestly don't know why Cloud is being given that much of a shot. KH2 looks to have benefited the unique KH2 characters the most, not everyone who was in the game. And Cloud couldn't even do anything after that Advent Children leak last year that is attributed to Vincent. On top of that, pre-contest and even now, Link has Twilight Princess the very next day -- and he's already stronger.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 12:25:52 PM | message detail
I don't know what happened with Samus/Zelda, I just know that it's wrong ('cause guess what HM she's not beating Sonic/MM/Crono!),

It'll look so right next year!

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
transience | Posted 11/13/2006 12:26:42 PM | message detail
and we'll all attribute it to a boost instead of her natural strength!

*hugs stats topic*
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 11/13/2006 12:27:05 PM | message detail
oh, and don't look now but Samus is just exploding with the afterschool vote.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 12:27:10 PM | message detail
Who are the characters that were previously in KH2? Squall and Aeris, and we all knew that Aeris' appearance was going to amount to precisely zilch. Even the slightest amount of SFF in Snake/Squall makes him look that much better, and even no SFF makes him look pretty damn good on this Snake.

The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence!...as some might say.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/13/2006 12:27:25 PM | message detail
I don't know what happened with Samus/Zelda, I just know that it's wrong ('cause guess what HM she's not beating Sonic/MM/Crono!), but even a constant Zelda leaves Yuna to be stronger this year. If Yuna can get 43% on Zelda, I have a hard time seeing Ganon crack that 60%+ mark again. It doesn't have to be anything drastic, but I definitely believe Yuna boosted. She just looked sensational in every single match.

Well if you're me and think that she's not really stronger, but it's because she was underrated through Ganon, it makes perfect sense, and Ganon is still getting that same % on her, because her strength hasn't changed, her place in the stats just has. Sensational is really strecthing it though... she looked good no doubt, but nothing to say she's massively stronger.

Yuna owns a nobody (Roll), performs on Joanna, acts like friggin' Mario on a should be stronger Jo (this is why I don't think it's impressive, when you overperform by that much something is just completely crunked up), takes on a very overrated Chunners (lol 55% on Lara), and then does as I believed pre-contest on Zelda. Dunno, but it doesn't really look like she's any stronger to me.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
transience | Posted 11/13/2006 12:29:13 PM | message detail
"sensational" vs. "massively overperforming" - what's the difference? Yuna looked fantastic against Joanna, outdid expectations vs. Roll and rocked Chun Li.
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xyzzy
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/13/2006 12:29:53 PM | message detail
I honestly don't know why Cloud is being given that much of a shot. KH2 looks to have benefited the unique KH2 characters the most, not everyone who was in the game. And Cloud couldn't even do anything after that Advent Children leak last year that is attributed to Vincent. On top of that, pre-contest and even now, Link has Twilight Princess the very next day -- and he's already stronger.

I don't think he has a shot, I was just trying to make a point to KH, as I thought he was believing a Zelda/Ganon increase, while still holding out hope for Cloud. And the only person who's looked impressive is Auron, who has every reason to be underrated last year. Even then though, he looks better.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 12:32:12 PM | message detail
Who are the characters that were previously in KH2? Squall and Aeris, and we all knew that Aeris' appearance was going to amount to precisely zilch. Even the slightest amount of SFF in Snake/Squall makes him look that much better, and even no SFF makes him look pretty damn good on this Snake.

Squall is the one that is a bit inconclusive, but I really don't buy SFF in the Snake match after Snake's run. The characters who were a big part of KH2, though, are the ones with the noticeable and evident boosts from KH2. We talked about the boosts being because of a Square influx thanks to the game, but we most certainly did not see something like that this year.

Cloud's chances really are not that good. But I'm only saying this stuff because of EC's comments about kissing Cloud's ass goodbye if they boosted for no reason. He's ass was kissed goodbye before we knew about that !!

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/13/2006 12:32:36 PM | message detail
"sensational" vs. "massively overperforming" - what's the difference? Yuna looked fantastic against Joanna, outdid expectations vs. Roll and rocked Chun Li.

Because doing better than expected and looking like friggin' Mario when there's no reason for you to boost are two different things. I'm all for random variation, but not THAT kind of random variation. When something goes that funky, I just remind myself that the stats aren't perfectly linear, and there's going to be stupid anomalies like that, especially when you're talking about fodder who more than likely have a low ceiling, making midcarders be able to perform similarly to elites on them. I'm not so sure she really outdid expectation against Roll either... everyone expected her to be pure unadultered ass, and Chunners we all knew was overrated horrendously. I don't care what last years stats say, and saying "oh hey she overperformed!" you have to put into the context of this contest.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2006 12:35:15 PM | message detail
Squall never got a chance to spread his wings, though. He had his Tidus beatdown, and that was it. You can't argue that SFF in the Snake match seems unlikely because of how strong Snake looks, because if Squall did benefit noticeably from KH2 there'd be SFF even if the Snake was stronger. Other than that, there's Aeris -- whose role was basically zilch, and whom we hadn't seen in years.

There's no evidence that the characters that were already in KH didn't boost, just evidence that the characters that were only in KH2 boosted so far. Which we already knew was going to happen.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/13/2006 12:35:59 PM | message detail

There's no evidence that the characters that were already in KH didn't boost, just evidence that the characters that were only in KH2 boosted so far. Which we already knew was going to happen.


*remembers sig bet*

I think you'll be saying differently soon!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/13/2006 12:38:07 PM | message detail
Well, if you want to hold on to that very small sliver of hope that KH2 is somehow going to give Cloud a win (it'll be uglier this year than it was last year), then I can't stop ya!

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess