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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 428

Janus5000 | Posted 11/12/2006 10:24:14 PM | message detail
Don't bank on ever getting another Character contest either. I'm serious...

Could you remind me why you keep saying this?
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
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Mister Mario | Posted 11/12/2006 10:24:16 PM | message detail
How many individual IP hits does the GameFAQs homepage get each day? If it's many more than our current votals, I suppose it has room to go up.
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Z1mZum more like Z1mAwesome.
Support Toadette in the S2k6 Character Contest!
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/12/2006 10:24:35 PM | message detail
Samus will gain 50 here. BOOK IT!
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CB06 - Score: 122/160 Rank: Tied - 3594th Yesterday's Pick: Crono Today's Pick: Samus
Tomorrow's Pick: Samus Elim Losses: Cortana, Ganondorf, Zero, Master Chief, Kirby, Mega Man, Crono(2)
gonf | Posted 11/12/2006 10:24:51 PM | message detail
Does the Battle Royale start tomorrow or will there be a day in between?
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Most wanted game: LoZ: TP
xp1337 | Posted 11/12/2006 10:25:28 PM | message detail
Will the votals in the Battle Royale be higher than we've ever seen before?

Now that's an interesting discussion.

I'm going to say... that the last two break the record, and the other three fall just short.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (126/160) Samus v Sonic
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/12/2006 10:25:31 PM | message detail
ouch
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CB5 Points: 131/160, Current Oracle placement: 19/170
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/12/2006 10:25:50 PM | message detail
Told you guys.
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CB06 - Score: 122/160 Rank: Tied - 3594th Yesterday's Pick: Crono Today's Pick: Samus
Tomorrow's Pick: Samus Elim Losses: Cortana, Ganondorf, Zero, Master Chief, Kirby, Mega Man, Crono(2)
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/12/2006 10:26:11 PM | message detail
Considering they were close enough in 2002 for him to SFF her to victory

Far FAR FAAAAR from obvious. Why should anyone automatically assume Mario would SFF her?

he was ahead in 2003

Very slightly.

he was hit by Crono in a weird match in 2004

He got punked by Crono, and it was by far the "least weird" match they had ever had. He just lost. That's it.

a year with low vote totals hampering his strength

For something so obvious, you sure are bringing quite a few specific factors into play.

the absolute zeal put forth by many of you during the build up to 2005 about Samus' victory was, indeed, ridiculous and illogical.

Whoa there. I picked Mario. That Mario pick actually helped me finish in the Top 25.

Can't even talk about things without some sarcastic bastard coming in and acting high and mighty on you.

Heh, who's acting high and mighty, again? As far as I can tell, the people who now call a highly debated match "obvious" are.
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I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 10:26:17 PM | message detail
Well I'm telling you you smell. HAHAHAHAHAHA *sigh*
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 11/12/2006 10:26:23 PM | message detail
really, the first day of the BR should have the highest vote totals. what would make people more interested, Link/Cloud or all of them combined?
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xyzzy
Mister Mario | Posted 11/12/2006 10:26:25 PM | message detail
So much for Snake cutting, then.
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Z1mZum more like Z1mAwesome.
Support Toadette in the S2k6 Character Contest!
creativename | Posted 11/12/2006 10:26:46 PM | message detail
Can't even talk about things without some sarcastic bastard coming in and acting high and mighty on you.

Consider your stance, you can't honestly say you aren't getting the reaction you deserve :) Nobody means ill though, it just isn't a defensible position at all, and it doesn't merit further discussion.


Will the votals in the Battle Royale be higher than we've ever seen before?

I think this depends on whether there'll be a picture or not. I suspect there will be pictures, but if there are no pictures the vote potential probably won't be lived up to.

And Snake is looking dubious to even take the lead overnight now...not good for him.
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xp1337 | Posted 11/12/2006 10:27:10 PM | message detail
really, the first day of the BR should have the highest vote totals. what would make people more interested, Link/Cloud or all of them combined?

I thought that, but for some reason, I have a gut feeling it goes the opposite.

I can't explain it or back it up with any logic at all.

>_>
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (126/160) Samus v Sonic
transience | Posted 11/12/2006 10:29:12 PM | message detail
..why in the world is the age-old Samus/Mario debate going on during the final?
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xyzzy
Big Bob | Posted 11/12/2006 10:29:43 PM | message detail
I'm actually counting on the first poll having the most hits. More characters = more likely someone will see someone they like.

I remember seeing one of the highest votals of all time having a wide range of popular companies in it.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 10:30:04 PM | message detail
This always happens, which more or less means Snake has no chance. I think it happened last year during Link/Cloud (except I brought up...Ness/CJ, I think it was).
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
TehMissingLink | Posted 11/12/2006 10:30:34 PM | message detail
..why in the world is the age-old Samus/Mario debate going on during the final?

I'm not sure why we're arguing it still, but the final doesn't seem to be all that interesting with the way Samus is rocking updates. >>

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
creativename | Posted 11/12/2006 10:31:07 PM | message detail
really, the first day of the BR should have the highest vote totals. what would make people more interested, Link/Cloud or all of them combined?

I think that if the first match gets under 150K votes, it will be a disappointment.

The problem is that we've never seen such a multi-option match before...will it somehow not have the appeal of a one-on-one contest? One would expect it to have more appeal, but perhaps it won't because it's not as dramatic.

I wouldn't be too surprised if Link/Cloud/Sephiroth (assuming that happens) ended up getting more votes than the 1st match, thought I think the coolest thing would be for the first match to get the most votes ever.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/12/2006 10:31:55 PM | message detail
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?q=www.game&url=www.gamefaqs.com

Fascinating...according to Alexa, November 11th 2006 was the biggest day ever for GameFAQs. Actually, it might be behind the day of Mario vs. Cloud, but it's close either way. Also, the influx from FFXII looks to have been pretty much nonexistent.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/12/2006 10:34:33 PM | message detail
Could you remind me why you keep saying this?

I don't want to sound like "well I heard from a friend who heard from a friend." but I talk to SineNomine on skype frequently(well, I haven't in a while), and he talks to Ceej on a semi-regular basis... and Sine hates the contests and inherently yelled at Cjay when he made this recent contest... and Cjay told him he made this one just so that Samus could win and that this would be the last one. Now, I'm not saying that's concrete or the 100% truth... but I have a bad feeling that it could be the last one. =(
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/12/2006 10:34:47 PM | message detail
Hmm... six characters splitting 100%. That's 16.67% per character, assuming they're all equal. Obviously, Link is far from equal, and he also has an SFF advantage over two of the others, so I think he can hit 25%. Of course, 30% would just be out of this world.

Anyway, if the Battle Royal was conducted without pictures, I could picture Mario overperforming. I could also picture Samus breaking all kinds of records for crapiness.
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I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
Kaxon | Posted 11/12/2006 10:35:26 PM | message detail
Just because no one's said it yet...

Snake? Snake!! SNAAAAAAKE!!!
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....TCELES B HSUP
FastFalcon05 | Posted 11/12/2006 10:35:51 PM | message detail
Just checked the results, yay Samus!

I'll have to catch up on posts, but this is great for Samus, woo!
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/12/2006 10:36:00 PM | message detail
I don't want to sound like "well I heard from a friend who heard from a friend." but I talk to SineNomine on skype frequently(well, I haven't in a while), and he talks to Ceej on a semi-regular basis... and Sine hates the contests and inherently yelled at Cjay when he made this recent contest... and Cjay told him he made this one just so that Samus could win and that this would be the last one. Now, I'm not saying that's concrete or the 100% truth... but I have a bad feeling that it could be the last one. =(

On one of the the recent Daily Grind posts, Ceej suggested that he'll keep having contests as long as they keep being popular. As it stands, a 2k7 character contest is still more likely than a 2k5 contest was.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 10:36:09 PM | message detail
And with that, Samus has surpassed her pace against Tifa. A sad, sad day.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/12/2006 10:36:42 PM | message detail
The fact that Tifa is likely to end up 2nd in the x-stats could make this the worst contest ever.
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CB5 Points: 131/160, Current Oracle placement: 19/170
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/12/2006 10:37:05 PM | message detail
Sine did mention that they talked about different TYPEs of contests. I mean that this may very well be the last character battle.
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
transience | Posted 11/12/2006 10:37:38 PM | message detail
screw this Snake fanboyism. THIS IS THE BEST FINAL EVER, EAT IT SUCKERS
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xyzzy
trizob the hedgehog | Posted 11/12/2006 10:37:59 PM | message detail
Didn't CJay have Crono in his bracket, though?
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"No, not just an urge - more than that. It was my destiny to be here; in the box."
- Naked Snake
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/12/2006 10:38:37 PM | message detail
Crazy thought here...any chance Snake wins the day vote?
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CB5 Points: 131/160, Current Oracle placement: 19/170
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 10:38:51 PM | message detail
You're still playing MGS either way tranny, and Xenosaga just inadvertently 'slipped' a little down my queue!

HA HA!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/12/2006 10:38:54 PM | message detail
From KleenexTissue50
The fact that Tifa is likely to end up 2nd in the x-stats could make this the worst contest ever.

Agreed. Well, Sonic breaking 60% on a Luigi that got 54% on Zero was pretty sad as well.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Janus5000 | Posted 11/12/2006 10:39:14 PM | message detail
Sine hates contests?

...Eh, with the influx of idiocy here, that's no surprise.

It'd be cool if we took a year off from these, but this being the last one would just suck.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 10:39:22 PM | message detail
Crazy thought here...any chance Snake wins the day vote?

And now we know Snake's chances are hopeless.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/12/2006 10:39:39 PM | message detail
No, Kleenex. Not a chance in hell. The day vote ALWAYS goes where it is expected to go. I'm not being sarcastic here. Since Final Fantasy/Zelda people have been like "Well what if so-and-so surprisingly takes the day vote" and it doesn't happen. =\
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New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
Mister Mario | Posted 11/12/2006 10:39:56 PM | message detail
Are we dissecting posts now? Well alright. She was very slightly ahead in 2002. He was very slightly ahead in 2003. This alone proves that there is enough room there for fluctuation and that their stats should not be held at face value. The magnitude of said punking was what makes it weird. Lower vote totals and voters being tired of their rivalry go some way to explain the outcome. Mario losing isn't what's odd about that match. It's by how much he lost. Even in 2004, I still say he would beat Samus, despite their apparent strengths when not facing each other. The discussion was never about what you had, but about me stating that Samus was getting too much respect before her match with Mario. Of course, I assumed that you also had Samus because of the fervour with which you're arguing now, but that's not the issue. And yes it is you who is still acting high and mighty. Not only did you come in to the discussion being nothing but condescending and arrogant, making my accusations more than warranted, but you also seemed to miss the entire point of the discussion. You also selectively quoted, apparently choosing to ignore the part of my last post where I admitted that it wasn't obvious that he would win, and that I was, indeed, utilising hyperbole, albeit with the unexplained motive of wanting to get my point across quickly so that I could go back to what was an exciting match.

The winner being obvious, in actuality, has nothing to do with it. I certainly thought all along that Mario would win, but I did have doubts here and there, mainly because of 2004. My points do not prove that Mario was going to win, they show that he had more than just a chance of doing so. Samus' victory was certainly NOT obvious and therefore the zeal which her supporters showed during that period was not just hugely annoying but also showed that she was getting more respect than she deserved, which is what cn and i were originally talking about anyway.
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Z1mZum more like Z1mAwesome.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/12/2006 10:40:32 PM | message detail
creative, how do you see this as an upset? Snake clearly drew strength from the Nintendo faithful all contest, save in his match against Yoshi. If the whole Nintendo thing Snake drew from favored Samus, then she would be prime (lol punny) to win this.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
creativename | Posted 11/12/2006 10:40:33 PM | message detail
Hey now, IMO Tifa would beat Solid **** ;)

It's so weird to think though that Tifa came *this close* to totally altering all of this. To dwell on what could have been...
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/12/2006 10:41:02 PM | message detail
Considering 24% of the users here had FF7 as their favorite game out of a list of 130 games AND the option of a write-in, tomorrow's poll will only feature six characters, Link is the FF7 of characters, and both LoZ:TP and the Wii are on the verge of release...

...up to 32.5% is possible I think, but I'm bankin' on 28%.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/12/2006 10:41:03 PM | message detail
And that was more or less my Crew writeup before the match even started, so I'm not hindsighting.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/12/2006 10:42:25 PM | message detail
You'll see. You'll all see...

*goes off into the corner mumbling to himself**
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CB5 Points: 131/160, Current Oracle placement: 19/170
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana
Kaxon | Posted 11/12/2006 10:43:02 PM | message detail
You know, actually after all these upsets, I get the feeling that even if Link somehow manages to lose, the impact of that will be diluted heavily :)

On the contrary, Link getting upset in the BR would be the ultimate climax to a contest full of upsets. I can't imagine anything better... too bad it'll never happen.

I'm aware nobody cares. Call me anal retentive, but it's mildly irritating to me that we've given it a name that makes absolutely zero sense. >_>

It makes plenty of sense, since the Nintendo characters usually win it. It doesn't matter that they don't always win it, since nothing's ever 100% anyway. It's a useful concept with a catchy name.

Link even hitting 25% Day One would be impressive.

I'm not even sure how probable 20% is.


I would be stunned if Link fails to break 20% on the first day. Since 100/6 is 16.67, things would have to be extremely even for him to not break 20%.
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....TCELES B HSUP
Mister Mario | Posted 11/12/2006 10:43:03 PM | message detail
It's so weird to think though that Tifa came *this close* to totally altering all of this. To dwell on what could have been...

Actually, that's sort of scary.

And it also makes one wonder how exactly she seems so strong. FFXII is the preffered theory, yes?
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creativename | Posted 11/12/2006 10:43:54 PM | message detail
creative, how do you see this as an upset?

Becaus it flat-out is. Snake was a heavy Oracle favorite, and the discussion in this topic reflected this as well.

Samus going from favorite to nearly losing outright to iffy to clear underdog to winning the first couple hours is just emblematic of the twists of this contest.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 10:44:07 PM | message detail
Hey, we've still got a good excuse! The poll is at the bottom of the page FOR A FEW PEOPLE! There's a reason Snake did so poorly in 2004 dammit =(
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Mister Mario | Posted 11/12/2006 10:45:17 PM | message detail
It became an upset once we saw Snake and Samus' respective runs through the contest. It certainly wasn't one at the start of the contest, or if, as you, subscribe to the idea that SSBB is what made Snake stronger.
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Support Toadette in the S2k6 Character Contest!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/12/2006 10:45:21 PM | message detail
creative, how do you see this as an upset? Snake clearly drew strength from the Nintendo faithful all contest, save in his match against Yoshi. If the whole Nintendo thing Snake drew from favored Samus, then she would be prime (lol punny) to win this.

1. It's Samus and SFF.

2. Snake was looking to be FAR superior to Samus. Even keeping some of that new strength looked like it would've been enough.

3. Samus's last two matches have looked...not great.

4. I'm not sure if this is everyone's opinion, but I don't think that all of Snake's boost came from the SSBB trailer. Some of it, sure, but the whole thing's just too much for one trailer to do.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 10:45:22 PM | message detail
And yes, I'm implying the votals would be significantly HIGHER right now because of that. Leave me alone.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/12/2006 10:45:26 PM | message detail
I think the BR has a chance to be VERY misleading in the first few days.

I can see Cloud AND Sephiroth ranking above Link with Samus and Mario (Snake too <_<) taking away his Nintendo votes. Cloud and Sephy have proven themselves to be equally liked by the FF7 fanbase, so it wouldn't be weird to see something like

Cloud-25
Sephy-25
Link-20
Snake- 15
Mario- 10
Samus-5

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/12/2006 10:46:12 PM | message detail
woo 50/50 update
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CB5 Points: 131/160, Current Oracle placement: 19/170
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana