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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 427

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 1:40:57 AM | message detail
The votals are 5000 higher than Sonic/Crono at this time. Which is suspicious because thats the exact number of votes that Snake leads by.

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Commit it to memory.
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/12/2006 1:43:27 AM | message detail
I agree. Snake is a cunning bastard with 5000 votes hidden under a box.
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/12/2006 1:45:26 AM | message detail
If both Sonic and Megaman will be in SSBB then Crono will look really bad.
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
satai_delenn | Posted 11/12/2006 1:45:41 AM | message detail
So...Mega Man was fairly constant...? Did Crono just drop, then? I mean, I'm certainly expecting Sonic to regain a bunch of ground...Snake isn't going to win this at >58%. But still!
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My Contest Hero: Sonic the Hedgehog.
Currently playing: FFXII, Fire Emblem 7, KoF 2003
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 1:49:22 AM | message detail
If Sonic ends around Mega Man's level, it'll really be just random variation as far as each of them go. They were all damn close last year, and this year they could be damn close as well. The Sonic/Mega Man/Crono trio could be one that has a bit of longevity to it in terms of rivalries.

That's in order to make stuff 'make sense'. That'll all go out the window though if tomorrow Snake doesn't whip Samus' ass in a thrilling finish. Fortunately, I'm counting on it!!! =D

(oops, forgot to up my Oracle!)
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Kaxon | Posted 11/12/2006 1:50:53 AM | message detail
Finally caught up with the last 500 posts... this match is just awesome. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that the trailer is responsible for a good portion of this. In my opinion it's ridiculous to insist that hype doesn't do anything. The SSBB trailer was THE big thing from E3 this year. It got people excited about the game and excited about Snake. If people are excited about Snake, they're more likely to vote for him. I sure didn't expect this big of an effect, but I did expect some. I also think it's very likely that the TP Trailer in 2004 helped put Link back over Cloud, not just the Collector's Edition.

From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 11/11/2006 9:23:49 PM | Message Detail
So who's taking Snake over Sephiroth after MGS4 and SSBB, SFF be damned???

'Cause I know my bracket's going up in flames with it!!!


Dude, that's my upset! I first mentioned it a year ago! You better believe I'll be taking it if I have the chance.

I kind of wish the Battle Royale weren't happening, because it would preserve a lot more uncertainty for next year about how Snake stacks up to the big three. Plus, it pretty much has to be anticlimactic after this.
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....TCELES B HSUP
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/12/2006 1:51:09 AM | message detail
When Sonic the Hedgehog comes out, Sonic will blast his way out of that tier.
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 2:11:39 AM | message detail
This reminds me!

tranny, I demand to see your pre-contest stats. plz >_>
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
creativename | Posted 11/12/2006 2:15:21 AM | message detail
Ladies and Gentlemen,

Do not close your eyes to the distasteful truth. Ask yourselves, are these analyses and "SSBB trailer factor" rhetoric simply a way for us to avoid admitting to the self-evident truth? To believe mere trailers can have such effects on performance seems awkward, and grossly naive.

The sanctity of our noble sitewide pastime is being challenged by malevolent forces. Some of our heroes have fallen, and succumbed to vile temptations, all in the name of the endless quest for glory.

Please let your voice be heard, so that the integrity of future contests can be restored:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=31706330

Thank you, good night, and God Bless America.
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PlatinumSmurf | Posted 11/12/2006 2:16:59 AM | message detail
That act is getting older than Snake's age, creativename.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 2:18:51 AM | message detail
Snake's not old! He's barely in his forties!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 11/12/2006 2:26:51 AM | message detail
Sonic is starting to show signs of life. He really needs to be making stalls at this point though. Not just percentage gains. >_<
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
zwong1 | Posted 11/12/2006 2:30:10 AM | message detail
Sorry but what happen to Snake now, is he going to be retired at the end of the contest.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
creativename | Posted 11/12/2006 2:30:24 AM | message detail
That act is getting older than Snake's age, creativename.

Poor soul, you must be from Canada.

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PlatinumSmurf | Posted 11/12/2006 2:32:17 AM | message detail
No I'm not and quite with the steroids gags, they just plain suck. -_-
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
Redtooth | Posted 11/12/2006 2:33:51 AM | message detail
All that needs to happen is that now, Snake absolutely trounces Samus in the final, followed by her somehow outlasting him in the BR. I've completely lost any idea of how that thing might turn out now, especially with the inclusion of Snake. Regardless, these stats are gonna be weird as hell. Anyone plan on trusting anything that happens in the BR this year?

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 2:36:28 AM | message detail
You're right, we need a new name for this Snake. Mario was on 'Shrooms...let's see...Smash Snake? Nah. Snake on Super Rations? Blargh. "Snake Eater" will likely refer to whoever's going to try and upset this fool in the future...fine, steroids it is. =/
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/12/2006 3:50:58 AM | message detail
Reading through the last topic, I just want to address one point:

There's no problem with Snake boosting from the trailers at E3. Hell, lots of people expected him to boost from them. The issue at hand is how much Snake boosted from them. A trailer isn't suddenly going to make people vote Snake over everyone else.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2179

More than 70% of the site has played MGS1. I doubt that there were too many people who were turned on to Snake just from the SSBB trailer.

If anything, I think that the higher vote totals theory has some credibility to it. No, I don't think that this is all because of higher vote totals, but they are part of what's making Snake stronger. A combination of factors boosting Snake up makes more sense than just one thing doing it.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/12/2006 3:54:32 AM | message detail
Don't say I didn't tell you this would happen. ¬_¬

I based Snake winning this contest, simply because mindless Nintendo fanboys would mass vote for him on top of his already respectable fanbase. And well, it's happening.

Snake could litreally SFF Samus to hell tomorrow.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
XIII_rocks | Posted 11/12/2006 3:55:12 AM | message detail
*jaw drops and then promptly explodes*

...W...T...F...

I have Sonic, but SCREW MY BRACKET! GO ****ING SNAKE! HAHAHAHAHAH!

Oh, and Sonic will outdo Megaman. We may not have as pronounced a day voe because it's the weekend, but I have total confidence in Snake pulling a swing.

I mean, if Megaman outdoes Sonic, then MM increased slightly. That doesn't make any sense.
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AC2K6 Score: 116/128 Today: Samus
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/12/2006 3:56:15 AM | message detail
I think Mega Man overperformed on Snake, I don't buy that he's still in the same tier as Sonic and Crono given what everybody in his bracket did to him.
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 3:57:30 AM | message detail
It's, like, random variation. If you want to be technical Mega Man 2k5 is the strongest Mega Man statwise since 2k2.

There's no reason why Mega Man couldn't have beaten Sonic and Crono this year (and Samus !!), heck I almost very well had that upset but decided to go with the more satisfying one...if only I'd had a clue exactly how satisfying that string would be...

...man, Snake better not get retired. He's looking to be the favorite to take the main bracket and he's not even at his PEAK yet.
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MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/12/2006 3:59:12 AM | message detail
That's bull. If you claim that everybody in MM's division exceeded expectations/Boosted is more logical than a simple overperformance/rSFF on MM's part, you're an idiot.

I suppose you'll be telling me that Yoshi didn't overperform because of Solid **** next. -_-
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 4:07:55 AM | message detail
I don't think Mega Man is perfectly constant, but I maintained from the beginning that was a very viable possibility, and there's a reason why I had him as the favorite against Snake right up until that match. Mega Man dropping isn't out of the question. Mega Man dropping to the extent it appeared is certainly out now, as Snake is brutally proving.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 4:08:26 AM | message detail
Wait, I just realized I was arguing whether or not MM dropped with Smurf.

Hi Smurf ^_~
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MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/12/2006 4:18:03 AM | message detail
I think the x-stats needs to stop judging characters on the match that they lose, and start thinking of a new algorithm to determine performance.
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/12/2006 4:18:40 AM | message detail
Heh Heh. n_n
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/12/2006 4:30:35 AM | message detail
Yoshi > Ganondorf, Bowser, Vincent, Auron e.t.c

The stats will be totally wrong this year.
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/12/2006 4:31:12 AM | message detail
lol x-stats
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 4:33:06 AM | message detail
I was about to attempt to correct you, when I realized that my mock stats are based on Sonic getting 47% (and the day vote's here, people, and it's not looking good for that number).

Yeah, Yoshi > most CONFIRMED in the stats confirmed. YAY for another unreliable value on the dino!
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MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/12/2006 4:33:47 AM | message detail
Day vote starts at 7am?
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/12/2006 4:35:03 AM | message detail
Weekend day vote? Hell yes.

In fact, this is the typical best time for Sonic characters. Their brutal morning vote.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/12/2006 4:36:55 AM | message detail
This isn't the morning vote yet, the shift should be starting now. This is when Sonic started stalling Crono, he didn't started making cuts for another few hours.
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
jonthomson | Posted 11/12/2006 4:42:41 AM | message detail
Snakes On A Plane factor, obv
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Jon Thomson - Owned by someone TBC in the guru contest
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/12/2006 4:43:27 AM | message detail
Aww I thought Sonic won that update :(
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/12/2006 4:54:22 AM | message detail
Sonic is fast climping up in percent.

My dream scenario would now be if Sonic got exactly 45%. That would make Sonic > Megaman > Crono, and then I would be happy.
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
Who Cares? | Posted 11/12/2006 5:00:35 AM | message detail
My goodness Snake! Man, I hope you tear apart Samus tomorrow. As far you Sonic...get your freaking percentage above Mega Man's, NOW!
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*Go play Tales of the Abyss*
Who Cares? | Posted 11/12/2006 5:01:42 AM | message detail
far=for ...dang morning typos! >_>
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Failed! She should've stayed away from the summoner!
*Go play Tales of the Abyss*
eclipsedv1 | Posted 11/12/2006 5:09:40 AM | message detail
Snake>Link lawlz
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It looks like the elevators broken! So I'm gonna haf to jump!
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2006 5:09:47 AM | message detail
What are the stats based off of Sonic getting 44%?

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/12/2006 5:20:01 AM | message detail
Just woke up. Glad to see Snake destroying him still.

From Karma Hunter
Though I am curious, I'm wondering what everyone else here believes? I have a few alternative theories of my own. I've already cited MGS3: Subsistence as being perhaps worth a point or so...maybe. This casual boost could have SEVERELY helped out Snake, for another. Random variation is always there, maybe it's a concerted effort to get Snake over the hump after all this time...

...I mean, what does everyone here think?


Read my writeup. It's clearly the FFXII boost affecting Snake for the same reason there is MGS/FF SFF.
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
Who Cares? | Posted 11/12/2006 5:24:31 AM | message detail
Sonic finally wins his first update!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Failed! She should've stayed away from the summoner!
*Go play Tales of the Abyss*
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/12/2006 5:34:58 AM | message detail
Things are going 50/50 now, this can only get better for Sonic.
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/12/2006 5:47:01 AM | message detail
55% update for Sonic.

It's awn, Snake!
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2006 5:47:14 AM | message detail
Sonic just won an update by 38 votes....
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"........!" ~Magus
DeepHyren12 | Posted 11/12/2006 5:53:56 AM | message detail
Crono in SSBB boosts him through the roof to rank 5 on the noble nine.

Believe
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"Some say there's no subtelty to destruction. You know what? They're dead!" --Jaya Ballard, Task Mage.
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/12/2006 5:54:44 AM | message detail
Well he practically was Rank 5 without it. >_<
In 2004, at least.
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
ShatteredElysium | Posted 11/12/2006 6:00:17 AM | message detail
If this continues as it is what does this mean for Megaman's supposed decline? Won't it put him second in the male division? Will that mean he really has dropped dramatically or that Snake has had a crazy boost and Megaman's opponents were higher rated than we originally thought?

Surely this means that all these potential NN beaters, wouldn't actually beat Megaman and he isn't weakest NN member. Unless Samus gets an absolute hammering in the finals, it also puts Crono as the weakest NN member right?

Or have I completely missed something, my head is a little hazy at the minute.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2006 6:02:29 AM | message detail
At this rate Sonic will finish well over Megaman's percentage.
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"........!" ~Magus
ShatteredElysium | Posted 11/12/2006 6:03:46 AM | message detail
I should have totally read the previous posts instead of making my post staright away. My questions have been answered above so it doesn't matter now.