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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 426

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/11/2006 10:15:28 PM | message detail
I made it up based off of, uh, this entire site and a large portion of the rest of the interweb community.

Where the hell did you get any kind of tangible data based on what this entire site's most anticipated game is? Oh, wait, you didn't. You seriously think that SSBB beats TP in a "Most Anticipated Game" poll right now? Not to mention multiple other heavy hitting games. That applies here and everyone else. Yes, it's an anticipated game, but unless there's something other than people being excited during the release of the first trailer, then you do not need to go around tossing things around like you have anything to back them up.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 10:15:35 PM | message detail
The year after TSS came out, Snake had his worst year ever.

And this has to directly relate to TT? More importantly, how does this serve as proof for anything other then showing how a full game didn't help him, and therefore a trailer probably wouldn't either?

BT is right, don't bother.

Well that does it, you just convinced me to change my opinion entirely with that statement. I see the light!
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/11/2006 10:15:47 PM | message detail
Jesus christ at that update.
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Demyx > Axel
Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Phoenix Wright 2: Justice For All
Majin Lou | Posted 11/11/2006 10:15:50 PM | message detail
O_O

Holy crap, that was a nice update! New lead of 1900 = sex.
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I like my coffee black, just like my metal.
http://danceandstomp.net/forum/index.php
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:16:08 PM | message detail
And really, I'm not even convinced that this HAS to be the be-all end-all reason why Snake looks like a monster this year. He *did* have MGS3: Subsistence this year, and while HM will cite you that game's sales they are deceptive -- it is the hardcore gaming crowd that held out for Subsistence (because it's, y'know, cheaper and with tons of extras), and I'd expect this site to get a greater proportion of its sales compared to other games. People learned their lesson with Substance.

But the trailer *has* to be doing something. This isn't the Snake that nearly got killed by Bowser. Not even close.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/11/2006 10:16:25 PM | message detail
Holy crap, Snake with a .22% gain that update.

lol Night vote
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:16:27 PM | message detail
Twin snakes isn't positive exposure? Ten seconds in a trailer > a starring role in a game?

It was on a Nintendo console yes, but I'll guarentee you that at least 90% of the people that bought it already knew who Snake was and would have voted for him anyways.

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
XxSoulxX | Posted 11/11/2006 10:16:35 PM | message detail

I'll guarentee you at least 70% of the people following SSB:B had never played an MGS game and would never have voted Snake before the trailer.


Of those 70%, at least 65% still won't vote for him before the game comes out.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 10:17:27 PM | message detail
And this has to directly relate to TT? More importantly, how does this serve as proof for anything other then showing how a full game didn't help him, and therefore a trailer probably wouldn't either?

Because TTS sold like ass, while SSBB, even if it is a trailer, could be the most popular series Nintendo has right now.

Really, what you're doing is looking evidence in the face and denying it for little reason. Character have boosted for less.

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 10:17:31 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 10:18:02 PM | message detail
Or maybe because every other character has only appeared in trailers for games that the people who would vote for them anyways would watch.

I'll guarentee you at least 70% of the people following SSB:B had never played an MGS game and would never have voted Snake before the trailer.

I say if Mario and Snake ever had a matchup, Mario would beat Snake almost as badly as he beat him last year.


Okay, while I disagreed with you before, I at least saw how your point made the least bit of sense to you. Now you're just pulling made up statistics out of your ass.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/11/2006 10:18:19 PM | message detail
Because TTS sold like ass, while SSBB, even if it is a trailer, could be the most popular series Nintendo has right now.

You people have got to be kidding me.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:18:25 PM | message detail
I say if Mario and Snake ever had a matchup, Mario would beat Snake almost as badly as he beat him last year.

But see BT, you don't quite understand that SFF doesn't take 100% of the votes. Even with Samus obviously taking a HUGE deal of her strength from SSB, she still managed more on Mario than most characters could ever dream of. Even Ness wasn't completely fodderized last year.

If Snake is legit this year, he beats Mario after SSBB and MGS4. There's just no disputing it.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:18:27 PM | message detail
So in the end, Squall,Vincent,Yoshi are coming for Crono's head and not Mega Man's head.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:18:43 PM | message detail
To anybody saying the trailer didn't help:

explain this match
explain last round's match
explain why he's making the whole bottom of the male bracket look like fodder

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 10:19:04 PM | message detail
Really, if you people are so adamant to this theory, come up with your own theory and quit your whining.

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 10:20:01 PM | message detail
It was on a Nintendo console yes, but I'll guarentee you that at least 90% of the people that bought it already knew who Snake was and would have voted for him anyways.

Hey what do you know; more made up percentages! Even if they were true they don't take into account the type of people that visit gamefaqs and such, and there's no evidence supporting tem, but there you are making them anyways.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/11/2006 10:20:04 PM | message detail
If Snake is legit this year, he beats Mario after SSBB and MGS4. There's just no disputing it.

Meh, if those two games aren't out for the 2k7 contest, then in 2k8 Mario will be on SMG induced roids causing him to own Snake.

This of course assumes that SMG owns everything ever like I think it will.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 10:20:14 PM | message detail
My theory: BAH GAWD NINTENDO LEECH SFF
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Moltar Status: 17th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Snake vs. Sonic - Bracket: N/A - Vote: Snake (120/144)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/11/2006 10:20:16 PM | message detail
Really, if you people are so adamant to this theory, come up with your own theory and quit your whining.

This has nothing to do with the trailer. I'm just wondering where the bloody hell you people get the idea that SSBB is the most anticipated game right now and SSB is Nintendo's most popular franchise. You pulled that right out of your asses -- and we just had a damn Series Contest a few months ago.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
XxSoulxX | Posted 11/11/2006 10:20:21 PM | message detail
I don't believe, and never will believe that Snake has boosted over 10% based off a trailer for a series that most who play have never played a MGS game, and don't know the character at all. I will not believe that a ****ing name (because that's all he is to most SSB fans) found in a trailer will make him as strong as he is now.

I know, seems crazy to you Snake fans, but that's the way I feel on this.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:20:47 PM | message detail
It's not a theory, it's the only logical conclusion that explains Snake's dominance. He still has his loyal MGS fanbase, but he has an additional fanbase of people who've been following SSB:B and typically would never have played MGS.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/11/2006 10:21:23 PM | message detail
Soul... I would normally agree with you but nothing else can explain the dominance Snake has displayed this contest.
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Demyx > Axel
Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Phoenix Wright 2: Justice For All
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 10:22:07 PM | message detail
explain this match
explain last round's match
explain why he's making the whole bottom of the male bracket look like fodder


Have you been ignoring me over the sound of your own voice? Did you miss where I stated that I think characters can jump or fall in popularity for no real reason?
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 10:22:18 PM | message detail
This has nothing to do with the trailer. I'm just wondering where the bloody hell you people get the idea that SSBB is the most anticipated game right now and SSB is Nintendo's most popular franchise. You pulled that right out of your asses -- and we just had a damn Series Contest a few months ago.

The SSB, despite only having two games, is the top-selling Gamecube game. It may not be quite as strong as Zelda or Mario, but if you think SSB is anything but a complete and utter powerhouse in the gaming world, you're out of your mind.

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/11/2006 10:22:19 PM | message detail
Soul... the trailer introduced new people to MGS... it's the same thing that got Cloud and Sephiroth so much power.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:22:56 PM | message detail
Though I am curious, I'm wondering what everyone else here believes? I have a few alternative theories of my own. I've already cited MGS3: Subsistence as being perhaps worth a point or so...maybe. This casual boost could have SEVERELY helped out Snake, for another. Random variation is always there, maybe it's a concerted effort to get Snake over the hump after all this time...

...I mean, what does everyone here think?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:23:04 PM | message detail
I never said SSB was Nintendo's most popular franchise overall, or even on this site. But in the last few years, SSB HAS been the staple of Nintendo, and SSB:B is just as anticipated as TP, but that matters not since he's not going up against Link.

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 10:23:59 PM | message detail
I think this is casual boost + SSBB trailer, with most of it being the trailer. I doubt Subsistence did much.

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
dethfdddddh | Posted 11/11/2006 10:24:09 PM | message detail
Snake's always done well with high votals...
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
XxSoulxX | Posted 11/11/2006 10:24:37 PM | message detail
Soul... I would normally agree with you but nothing else can explain the dominance Snake has displayed this contest.

Plenty of things can explain this. Shift in voting trends, more voters, random variation, bracket votes, more Snake fans coming to the site...

Saying this strength based off a trailer is so ****ing idiotic that it pains me to think that you people think this way. It really does.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:24:38 PM | message detail
From ExThaNemesis
Soul... the trailer introduced new people to MGS... it's the same thing that got Cloud and Sephiroth so much power.

EXACTLY!

Snake boosting because of an appearance in a trailer is just as believable as Cloud and Sephy boosting because of small cameo's in Kingdom Hearts. In fact, both are the only logical explanations, and both cases make everything else fall into place.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Draco1214 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:25:15 PM | message detail
So I voted for Snake and expected him to be making this a nailbiter now.

...

SNAKE > SAMUS CONFIRMED!!

This is already the best contest ever, even he if loses to Samus. He made it to the finals!
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Currently Playing: Xenosaga Episode 3, Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/11/2006 10:25:16 PM | message detail
The SSB, despite only having two games, is the top-selling Gamecube game. It may not be quite as strong as Zelda or Mario, but if you think SSB is anything but a complete and utter powerhouse in the gaming world, you're out of your mind.

It is a top selling GameCube game because nothing came out for months afterward and it was around the launch of the system. Super Mario Sunshine, despite coming out months later, is only a few hundred thousand units behind it. SSB is nothing compared to Zelda or Mario at all. Yes, it is a big and successful franchise that does get hype, but you did not say just that; you had to go and take it to the next level, and it was stupidly incorrect.

Personally, it always seemed likely that Snake boosted from the trailer(s), and at the very least is much stronger, but don't go get carried away in your verbal fellating of him and make up a bunch of crap. That's what I meant before about taking the own advice about "calming down."

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
XxSoulxX | Posted 11/11/2006 10:25:44 PM | message detail
Soul... the trailer introduced new people to MGS... it's the same thing that got Cloud and Sephiroth so much power.

The KH trailer boosted Cloud and Sephiroth? That's pretty incredible. I thought it was the full game that caused that.

My mistake.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:25:53 PM | message detail
Casual boost would normally help Sonic in this situation, as MGS is typically a more hardcore franchise. Snake winning the Nintendo Power hour also helps support the trailer explanation.

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:26:09 PM | message detail
By the way, I'm actually rooting for the people that are arguing the trailer has little or nothing to do with it. That means this is a Snake wholly fueled by MGS power, and the effects of SSBB don't get diluted one bit. Snake will be beating Sephiroth if that's the case, no 'ifs' about it.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
I Rule The World | Posted 11/11/2006 10:26:53 PM | message detail
I'd say Snake beating Sephiroth next year is pretty much a lock.

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Make me a sammich!
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 10:27:17 PM | message detail
Well, I'm off to bed. I just wanted to see Snake with a 2000 vote lead.

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:27:23 PM | message detail
Casual boost would normally help Sonic in this situation, as MGS is typically a more hardcore franchise.

Snake may be a night vote king, but he's ALWAYS done better with higher votals. Long before SSBB was even a glint in his eye.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:27:53 PM | message detail
I want to see Snake go up against Sephiroth or Mario in a direct matchup.

Sephiroth, to see him avoid the funky MGS/FF SFF and Mario to see him fall apart after losing all his boost to Freaking Mario

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:28:33 PM | message detail
You didn't read my post about SFF, did you Turtle?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
XxSoulxX | Posted 11/11/2006 10:28:36 PM | message detail
Snake boosting because of an appearance in a trailer is just as believable as Cloud and Sephy boosting because of small cameo's in Kingdom Hearts.

You know, there are stupid people on this board, and I thought that you managed to move away from those people when you started posting regularly in these topics, but I guess I was wrong.

Cloud and Sephiroth appeared in a game, Snake appeared in a trailer. If you do not think there's a difference there, you must be braindead.

And it's too late for me, so I'm going to bed.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/11/2006 10:28:52 PM | message detail
I'll guarentee you at least 70% of the people following SSB:B had never played an MGS game and would never have voted Snake before the trailer.

Silly fake statistic. I'll grant you that many never played a MGS game beforehand, but I will NOT grant you either a majority or that very few gamers didn't experience MGS after his announcement.



As for the SSB:B anticipation issue...I'd say LoZ:TP is more anticipated, but between it not gettin' perfect reviews at E3 and it being hyped up for literally years now (did we have our first trailer in E3-2004 or before that?) whereas SSB is the best relatively new series out WHILE having probably the biggest game to hit gamers who pride themselves in being gamers since LoZ:OoT (and guess what kind of gamer this site generally consists of)...I mean, couple it with Solid ****in' Snake being in it, and SSB:B's anticipation seriously shouldn't be too far being LoZ:TP's right now, even for it and the Wii being so close to releasing.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:28:57 PM | message detail
It will be interesting to see how he fares against Samus next round and how the Nintendo influx helps or hurts him in that instance.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
o4o22oo4 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:29:05 PM | message detail
The whole "Snake boosted immensely for absolutely no reason; thousands upon thousands of gamers just randomly decided they liked him more this year as opposed to every year prior" bullcrap reeks of bullcrap. I mean, seriously. Thousands of voters don't just randomly decide Snake is cool. They start believing that Snake is cool for a reason. It may be different reasons for different people, but I bet if you polled them, a majority of the new Snake voters who hadn't voted for Snake before would say something like "The SSBB trailer rocked, and now Snake's part of the Nintendo franchise!" or "MGS4 is looking really great, I'm excited for the next game!"

Black Turtle thus, almost strangely, wins this thread.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:29:13 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
CountCrazy007 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:29:22 PM | message detail
So in terms of predictability, where does this contest rank? These final few matches surprised me personally, but besides the Blast Division and Sub-Zero everything before the semis was pretty damn predictable, IMO. Anyways, I'd just like to hear people's thoughts on comparing this contest with others.
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Board 8's Voice of Reason Since 2003 ©
Oklahoma Sooners 7-2 - Next Victim: Texas Tech
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:30:00 PM | message detail
From Karma Hunter
You didn't read my post about SFF, did you Turtle?

Samus > Mario!!!!

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 10:30:04 PM | message detail
By the way, I'm actually rooting for the people that are arguing the trailer has little or nothing to do with it. That means this is a Snake wholly fueled by MGS power, and the effects of SSBB don't get diluted one bit. Snake will be beating Sephiroth if that's the case, no 'ifs' about it.

Even if turtle was 100% correct, that would still only mean that the most hardcore of nintendo fans are voting for snake. It'd still eave room for a huge ass ssbb boost. With that said though, a trailer helping snake more then any game has ever helped any character before is just ridiculous. BT's made up statistics don't exactly make me feel inclined to start believing him either.

In short I'm right; you're wrong NYAH!
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.