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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 426

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 9:31:11 PM | message detail
From dragoontheguy
Crono might be the weakest noble niner this year, and snake might be as high as the fifth or fourth strongest, and is sixth at the very least... just think about that for a minute. This has been one hell of a contest. Possibly the best since the games contest.

Snake will beat Samus just as bad as he beat MM and Sonic, so much that Tifa might still be under MM in the stats.

Believe!

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 9:31:42 PM | message detail
...Okay. Just because it's the weekend does not mean the day vote is non-existent. It just comes over the course of the day instead of all at once.

That's completely true. Of course you and me are both backing the idea, that means it's completely wrong. Wait, what the hell did I just say?
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 9:31:46 PM | message detail
I can't wait to see EC when he gets back
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 9:32:06 PM | message detail
Who did EC support?

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 9:32:08 PM | message detail
From YoAriel33
I have surprisingly little trouble believing that Snake is riding a new wave of Nintendo support toward these incredibly lopsided victories.

Which is why Sonic won't be bringing this down nearly as much as people are expecting.

After SSB:B, I would expect Snake to give Cloud a run for his money.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Big Bob | Posted 11/11/2006 9:32:09 PM | message detail
*cowers under the terror that Snake has become*

Hold me..
---
Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/11/2006 9:33:06 PM | message detail
Just saying that the vote swing is going to be less dramatic than it usually is. Plus, look; Snake isn't dropping that much at all.

Why would Snake drop during one of his best times? The day vote will favor Sonic to the point that he'll be gaining lots of votes back. A weekend match hardly means that comebacks suddenly stop working.

---
"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:33:07 PM | message detail
Snake will beat Samus just as bad as he beat MM and Sonic, so much that Tifa might still be under MM in the stats.

Believe!


I will believe it.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 9:33:07 PM | message detail
I hate to be obnoxious about this, but after some of the flak I've been getting for my "Mega Man is constant" theory, I think I deserve to rub this in everyone's face, especially KH and Smurf.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/11/2006 9:33:09 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
126----1--------100.0000000
125----1--------100.0000000
124----3--------100.0000000
123----1--------100.0000000
122----5--------100.0000000
121----4--------100.0000000
120----2--------100.0000000
119----10-------70.0000000
118----25-------88.0000000
117----38-------65.7894737
116----52-------73.0769231
115----69-------76.8115942
114----95-------71.5789474
113----124------78.2258065
112----135------71.8518519
111----194------69.0721649
110----187------71.6577540
109----224------70.0892857
108----285------69.4736842
107----308------73.7012987
106----367------72.4795640
105----442------70.3619910
104----433------73.4411085
103----510------71.1764706
102----466------65.2360515
101----539------63.2653061
100----516------66.4728682
99-----513------62.5730994
98-----545------63.8532110
97-----613------62.4796085
96-----633------57.3459716
95-----641------54.2901716
94-----691------58.1765557
93-----682------56.0117302
92-----730------58.7671233
91-----779------56.4826701
90-----738------52.4390244
89-----766------52.4804178
88-----742------52.5606469
87-----761------50.0657030
86-----808------52.9702970
85-----739------48.8497970
84-----822------48.7834550
83-----771------47.2114137
82-----819------46.1538462
81-----794------43.7027708
80-----820------44.5121951
79-----828------43.4782609
78-----794------45.4659950
77-----751------43.1424767
76-----845------41.3017751
75-----757------41.0832232
74-----769------37.1911573
73-----799------37.5469337
72-----776------36.8556701
71-----755------36.0264901
70-----760------35.2631579
69-----709------36.1071932
68-----705------33.1914894
67-----690------32.6086957
66-----661------34.7957640
65-----704------29.8295455
64-----654------28.8990826
63-----664------27.4096386
62-----635------25.1968504
61-----623------26.8057785
60-----550------24.7272727
59-----553------25.4972875
58-----565------26.0176991
57-----509------24.5579568
56-----495------25.8585859
55-----516------22.4806202
54-----444------18.9189189
53-----439------16.6287016
52-----408------16.1764706
51-----414------16.6666667
50-----374------13.3689840
49-----339------9.1445428
48-----360------14.1666667
47-----304------12.8289474
46-----334------9.8802395
45-----278------7.9136691
44-----266------10.9022556
43-----258------8.1395349
42-----204------5.3921569
41-----187------9.6256684
40-----190------9.4736842
39-----145------8.2758621
38-----123------6.5040650
37-----141------2.1276596
36-----91-------5.4945055
35-----92-------2.1739130
34-----68-------0.0000000
33-----51-------0.0000000
32-----48-------4.1666667
31-----60-------1.6666667
30-----48-------0.0000000
29-----32-------0.0000000
28-----35-------0.0000000
27-----19-------0.0000000
26-----23-------4.3478261

Everybody with a score of 25 or less got the match wrong.

A fairly well done match, but Samus is Noble Nine member fighting someone outside the group. The -2, -3, -4s, -5, -6s, -7s and -8s all go perfect, which is impressive even if that is only 17 people. From there there's a sudden drop to the mid 70 range(but the -10s still almost hit 90).

Six people fell off the Top 50 today. TheAce144, o1Kahn, Triad_Warlord, Shadow_StalkerX, nkn1129 and venusaur_rules all bet against the Noble Nine and lost. Three of them even had Zelda taking the whole bracket. Maybe next year with TP, but not this time.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 9:33:21 PM | message detail
Who did EC support?

Who cares!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 9:33:51 PM | message detail
I do!

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 9:34:37 PM | message detail
While sonic is obviously better at the day vote then sonic, consider this: Snake finished nearly a whole percentage point higher against megaman from where he was at this point in time in the match.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/11/2006 9:34:39 PM | message detail
After SSB:B, I would expect Snake to give Cloud a run for his money.

...

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 9:34:41 PM | message detail
Why would Snake drop during one of his best times? The day vote will favor Sonic to the point that he'll be gaining lots of votes back. A weekend match hardly means that comebacks suddenly stop working.

You seem to be ignoring one thing: Snake is no longer terrible at the day vote. Not that good, but definitely better than Crono. Add that to the weekend, and Sonic won't be doing much.

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:34:52 PM | message detail
Vegeta, how many steroid did Snake consume.

























It is over nine thousand pills.

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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 9:34:59 PM | message detail
Snake isn't nearly as bad as Crono is with the day vote. I would expect any gains (if any) Sonic makes during the day to be one back during the second night vote. Snake vs MM was pretty consistant, but I'd expect Sonic to end somewhere in the same area with slightly more lopsided trends. Snake will still dominate in the day.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 9:35:00 PM | message detail
Better at the day vote then megaman even. >_>
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 9:35:02 PM | message detail
Well, he wanted Sonic to win to make PoP look good, or Samus to win to prove himself right.

Snake is his preferential pick, but he doesn't care about that (which is why he's rooted against him in every match). Hence...

I can't ****ing wait until EC gets back
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
janembaman | Posted 11/11/2006 9:35:03 PM | message detail
Update already #$@#$@#$
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laff
Garsha_III | Posted 11/11/2006 9:35:17 PM | message detail
Time to set up a new Noble Nine, ya?
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The Beatles >>>> Lolicon.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 9:35:26 PM | message detail
And Snake rises in %.

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/11/2006 9:35:29 PM | message detail
Holy crap... He went up in percentage again....
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Demyx > Axel
Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Phoenix Wright 2: Justice For All
FFDragon | Posted 11/11/2006 9:35:43 PM | message detail
GOD DAMN SNAKE IS A BEAST!
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Married to PepsiPlunge June 01, 2005: HERO'S PLUNGE!
(Metal Gear Solid 2)
janembaman | Posted 11/11/2006 9:35:44 PM | message detail
ROFL @_@
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laff
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 9:35:58 PM | message detail
Well, he wanted Sonic to win to make PoP look good, or Samus to win to prove himself right.

Snake is his preferential pick, but he doesn't care about that (which is why he's rooted against him in every match). Hence...

I can't ****ing wait until EC gets back


XD

I'm glad I just learned to take screenshots.

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
Big Bob | Posted 11/11/2006 9:36:03 PM | message detail
Don't forget that Sonic swung a whole 4000 votes! If Snake doesn't get that high then..

Who am I kidding. Sonic is ****ed.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 9:36:11 PM | message detail
Back over 57%

Can't wait to see him bring this over 60% through the night before falling back to ~55-56% during the day.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:36:51 PM | message detail
If Snake did not lose his percentage to the constant Megaman during the day, what makes you think that Snake is weaker than Crono with the day vote.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 9:37:00 PM | message detail
When I said that I wanted MM to be over Sonic...I was joking.

<3

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
janembaman | Posted 11/11/2006 9:37:09 PM | message detail
*feels stupid* what is EC?
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laff
Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 9:37:42 PM | message detail
HAY GUYZ, Samus got 57.5% on Sonic, she still has a chance!

Yep...>.>
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Moltar Status: 17th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Snake vs. Sonic - Bracket: N/A - Vote: Snake (120/144)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/11/2006 9:37:46 PM | message detail
Yeah. Snake's just totally going to beat everyone now. 57% on Snake; that's Clinkeroth level right there.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:37:51 PM | message detail
He has cheer up emo kid as his sig.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 9:38:01 PM | message detail
Also

*high fives Lopen*

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 9:38:07 PM | message detail
Against megaman, snake had 54.41% exactly an hour into the match. He finished .82% higher.

Looking at that astatistic, I could see snake finishing around this amount (57% or so), and it's extremely likely he'll stay over 55% the whole match.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 9:38:39 PM | message detail
57% on Snake; that's Clinkeroth level right there.

...57% on Snake *is* Clinkeroth level!!!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:39:06 PM | message detail
Another lame question from me, after MGS4 and SSBB are released, who will you take. Sephiroth or Snake.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 9:39:44 PM | message detail
Snake.

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 9:40:08 PM | message detail
Also, looks like HM's undergoing the trend away from Snake fanboyism! Don't do it, HM!!! Link will steal your girlfriend!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/11/2006 9:40:09 PM | message detail
Another lame question from me, after MGS4 and SSBB are released, who will you take. Sephiroth or Snake.

Sephiroth, Sephiroth, Sephiroth.

This topic has a tendency to be a wee bit illogical during times like these so I'm expecting about five million different "SNAKE WITH EASE" choices. <<

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 9:40:09 PM | message detail
Also consider this: Snake will be the only character in the battle royale that doesn't have another character from the same company in the poll. That could work wonders in his favour.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 9:40:15 PM | message detail
I'm all for taking characters to upset Sephrioth
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Moltar Status: 17th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Snake vs. Sonic - Bracket: N/A - Vote: Snake (120/144)
Blade X | Posted 11/11/2006 9:40:19 PM | message detail
Does this mean Snake will be retired to a TOC-type bracket next year?
o4o22oo4 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:40:21 PM | message detail
Well if anyone here didn't believe before that characters can boost like hell for practically no reason at all... here's your proof.

Actually, there have been two major character boosts in the history of the contests, and both had similar reasons behind the boost.

It's all about appealing to new and different fanbases, to create boosts in the contests, not just about new releases. Samus can come out with a thousand Metroid Primes, appeal to the exact same fanbase, and still get the exact same percentages in the votes, but if Snake goes out and appears on a Nintendo console in a whole new genre of gaming, then suddenly Snake is exposed to new voters. Suddenly Snake is cool with the Playstation crowd and the Nintendo crowd here at GameFAQs, meaning he'll pool in votes from a wide range of gamers.

That's what the SSBB trailer as well as some MGS4 hype -- note that Snake is being marketed on both the Wii and the PS3, which is huge here too -- is doing for Snake.

The other time this happened, BTW, involved massive Kingdom Hearts-related gains for Cloud and Sephy and (to a lesser extent) Squall in 2K3. Again, KH exposed the FF characters to a new and different age group and genre of gaming.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/11/2006 9:40:24 PM | message detail
Damn why was I right this contest about everything except Snake boosting to astronomical levels. :(

I had every pick right (minus Ganon>Vincent and MC>Sub Zero as incorrect picks), I had MM>Sonic>Crono. I had MM>Samus (maybe Snake will validate that one too?).

Snake is a ****ing beast ladies and gents.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Zu Long | Posted 11/11/2006 9:40:56 PM | message detail
And just when people thought KH2 didn't have much of an effect, it turns out to have propelled Squall and Tifa into Noble Nine territory. Damn.
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"Oh, you mean the guy stuck in the net in my back yard?" - Dominic Deegan
Angels- Looking forward to 2007
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 9:41:20 PM | message detail
Hey, Smurf, what does the poll say about Snake's lead on Sonic?

IT'S OVER ONE THOUSAAAAAAAAAAAAAND!

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I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/11/2006 9:41:26 PM | message detail
Also, looks like HM's undergoing the trend away from Snake fanboyism! Don't do it, HM!!! Link will steal your girlfriend!

I want to add that you are not Link level unless you're breaking 60% on post-MGS4 and SSBB Snake.

Believe that.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
BDawg | Posted 11/11/2006 9:41:29 PM | message detail
Um yeah when you beat Sonic worse than your opponent beat Zelda you got yourself one ugly final coming up.
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Should I start running now?