GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 426
| CountCrazy007 | Posted 11/11/2006 6:18:47 PM | message detail |
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From Karma Hunter It wasn't *too* shocking. Magus fell out of favor with the board once he was exposed. Ocelot was a 2 seed last year and he didn't make it this year because of his bombing, and Snake's looked better than ever. Yeah, I guess you're right. --- Board 8's Voice of Reason Since 2003 © Oklahoma Sooners 7-2 - Next Victim: Texas Tech |
| wavedash101 | Posted 11/11/2006 6:21:45 PM | message detail |
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lol at falling out of favor with the board...the board has a lot less
power over noms then you give it credit for...it was the damn female
half that caused it... Nidoran F barely got in the female half even with huge support on LUE and B8... --- Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude! Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down |
| Agent M | Posted 11/11/2006 6:42:22 PM | message detail |
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http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/264/sonicvssnake2da6.jpg Here's a pic I created for the next battle, the original was a bit bland - so I added a few more things to it. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 6:47:37 PM | message detail |
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Like it. And GOGOGO MOTHER ****ING SNAKE WIN THE WHOLE DAMN BRACKET SONIC SUCKS METAL GEAR Figured I'd get my raving fanboyism out of the way beforehand. --- I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/11/2006 6:52:13 PM | message detail |
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I'm not crazy with the "Solid Snake" and "Sonic the Hedgehog" typed
font...you could do without that and maybe find something to use to
fill in those corners? Otherwise, sweet pic. --- Diddy did it. Diddy did it. DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?! |
| zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 6:55:46 PM | message detail |
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http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/264/sonicvssnake2da6.jpg 10/10 --- I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest. |
| Agent M | Posted 11/11/2006 7:08:21 PM | message detail |
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Well, the deadline is past, so I'll just hope for the best :P Snake having finally beat Mega Man on the third attempt, wouldn't it be fitting for Sonic to defeat Samus in the finals :P But I don't quite understand... the BR will have 6 characters, which includes 1 from the male half and 1 from the female half. So does that mean Samus won't face the winner of the male half? |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 7:11:43 PM | message detail |
| I'm pretty sure they face anyway, but also both
get it. Ceej probably did it just to make statheads go nuts if the
winner of the main bracket did worse in the BR than the person they
bead. --- I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis |
| Who Cares? | Posted 11/11/2006 7:32:38 PM | message detail |
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lol at falling out of favor with the board...the board has a lot
less power over noms then you give it credit for...it was the damn
female half that caused it... Yet it has a bit more than you give credit for...Lloyd & Ocelot #2 seeds last year, Phoenix a #4 seed in the tougher to break into male half? Characters that suck and/or bomb mysteriously dissappearing or severely dropping in seeding the next year? No the board doesn't hold total control over the nomination process (minus the Series Contest), but fact is we care a bit more than the general GF vistors and thus have a bigger say. --- Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Failed! She should've stayed away from the summoner! *Go play Tales of the Abyss* |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 7:39:06 PM | message detail |
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Hmm...while the Sora match looked bad for Mega Man at the time, Snake
is expected to get 59.15% on Sora this year (this has a bit to do with
him beating Mega Man worse than Mega Man beat Sora). Snake 2k5 is
expected to get 60.87% on Sora 2k4. Doing around only a point and a
half worse or so on Sora than he was projected to after KH2 could suggest that Snake/MM was much more Snake strength than Mega weakness! Don't mind me, just stretching to find ways for Snake to look better, carry on. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 8:27:50 PM | message detail |
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30+ mins to Snake vs Sonic. --- I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 8:30:54 PM | message detail |
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Final Four: Match 62 – (1)Solid Snake vs. (1)Sonic Moltar’s Analysis Snake - The injection of badass in the Final Four Round 1 – 82.15% vs. Soma (17.85%) Round 2 – 57.59% vs. Squall (42.51%) Round 3 – 57.16% vs. Yoshi (42.84%) Round 4 – 55.33% vs. Mega Man (44.67%) Snake just walks all over Mega Man Sonic - The injection of iconic figure who ruined brackets in the Final Four Round 1 – 80.75% vs. CATS (19.25%) Round 2 – 52.09% vs. Vincent (47.91%) Round 3 – 60.19% vs. Luigi (39.81%) Round 4 – 50.77% vs. Crono (49.23%) Sonic comes back and takes the victory from Crono Well, it’s rare when it’s so late in the bracket, and no one can predict what’s going to happen next. A lot of the board members picked Mega Man and Crono to win their matches, but instead, we have the two underdogs of the Noble Nine, Snake vs. Sonic right here. What a ride….or should I say, LET’S ROCK! Now, Snake has just looked dominant up until this point. I don’t think I need to go over his first three victories again, but let’s look at his match against Mega Man. That’s 55% on the guy who beat him with 56% only 2 years ago. Mega has fallen ladies and gentlemen. The real question is by how much, and also how much did Snake boost? It was a combination of the two that gave Solid the victory. For fun, let’s try and predict Mega and his opponents place in the stats to see how much Snake has boosted (oh and I’m rounding, yay rounding!). If Mega has fallen to 36% on BL, that puts Snake at nearly 40%, Sora at 33.48% (right under the Top 15), Ryu at 30.25% (slightly above his 2005 value), and Axel at 21.60% (which puts him around where Kairi may fall). None of those seem too farfetched to me, but there’s a problem. Crono is at 39.87% on BL, and Sonic beat Crono… So if Crono flucuated a little down, and Sonic flucuated a little up, that puts Snake and Sonic (along with Samus) very close to each other. I’m telling you, this is an extremely exciting end to the bracket we have awaiting us. Now, I’m going to say Snake is the slight favorite going into this match. He has bracket support, along with everything else mentioned before. Sonic has his status and all, and that should make this very close. I mean, if Crono would have won, I probably would have given Crono the nod, but I’m going Snake > Sonic. Eh, it just feels right. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Crono (bleh) will win, but the alt bracket has Snake. Moltar’s Prediction is: Snake: 51% - Sonic: 49% Ulti’s Analysis? Yeah, this is totally UltimaterializerX and not Leonhart posing as him because he’s not able to get his prediction in on time! Before the contest, these two were viewed as the weak links of the Noble Nine. After all, they were the only two that had never beaten a fellow Noble Niner, but this year, they’ve overcome the hurdles that had hindered them before and turned the inequality signs around. Very few people on Board 8 gave either of these two a shot at being here, much less BOTH of them, but lo and behold, here they are fighting for a spot in the finals against Samus Aran. First of all, let’s take a look at Solid Snake. He’s perhaps been the most consistently impressive character this year. He has yet to allow anybody to break 45% on him. Not even Mega Man could do it. Every time it looked like there was an opportunity that he might falter, Snake not only met expectations, he far surpassed them. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 8:31:18 PM | message detail |
| In the first round, people were expecting Soma
Cruz to be close to the fodder line. Solid Snake shut those people up
really quickly by beating him worse than Samus beat Nidoran F (Snake
> Samus, yo! Come on, who’d seriously take Nidoran F to beat Soma
Cruz?). Then, with potential Noble Nine breaker Squall Leonhart
stepping up to the plate, Snake makes easy work of him, seemingly
pulling an overperformance similar to what happened in 2002. After all,
there’s no way Snake could be THAT strong, right? That would make him a
threat to Samus! Even when Snake’s worst enemy, the sprite round, reared its ugly head (or Snake reared his ugly sprite, whichever), he still managed to breeze past Yoshi with over 57%. At this point, people are starting to wonder if he can overcome his two-time nemesis, Mega Man, especially after the Blue Bomber throws out a dud against Sora. After all, he had lost with over 57% just two years ago. That wouldn’t be easy to turn around, right? Apparently, it was pretty easy. Solid Snake not only beat Mega Man, he embarrassed him, holding him to seven five-minute update wins the entire match, none of them during what was supposed to be his horrible day vote. Assuming a constant Mega Man (LOL Black Turtle), Snake looks as strong as Mario here. Every performance has made him look like a potential threat to take it all, but will he? That’s where Sonic the Hedgehog steps in. At least Solid Snake has casuals believing he could win the contest. Sonic didn’t even have that much. In a pre-contest poll, a measly 11% thought he could win the male bracket. He did worse than Sora, for cryin’ out loud! Even though he was projected to have a close match with Crono, people just couldn’t get past his stigma as somebody who couldn’t win a big match when it counted. After all, he had blown two ideal chances to beat Samus in 2002 and Mega Man just one year ago. First up for Sonic was contest legend CATS. He easily quadrupled him, but nobody really thought too much of it. It seemed pretty much like he was expected to do, especially considering he wasn’t facing true Face-CATS, but CATS has this funny thing about facing contest winners! After that came the showdown against Vincent Valentine that few expected Sonic to lose, but most figured he would probably struggle. Before we go any further, I have to admit that Sonic/Vincent is probably one of my favorite match pictures ever. It’s just awesome. I don’t know what was going through CJayC’s mind when he decided to use generic Microsoft Powerpoint backgrounds for round 2, but this particular occasion, it worked. Anyway, Sonic went even with Vincent during the night hours before managing to pull away with his famous day vote and seal the victory. All in all, he barely broke 52% while Crono broke 55% with ease last year. Even though Vincent had Dirge of Cerberus between the two contests, it sucked, so it obviously couldn’t have done anything for him, right? Basically, Sonic’s fate had already been sealed. Up next on the slate was the star of the contest up to this point, Luigi. After Mario/Shadow 2003, people were wondering if the little brother of Sonic’s eternal rival could work a little magic of his own. The Blue Blur responded to that with a resounding “NO!” and beat the green plumber with over 60%. Despite how impressive Luigi had looked and how he had seemingly improved since 2005, Sonic managed to beat him by even MORE than the stats had projected. After Crono did worse against Auron (who lost to Ganondorf, who lost to Vincent. FOLLOW THE CHAIN!) than he did against Vincent, people were conceding that he might have a close match with Sonic, but only a few were actually willing to say he would outright win. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 8:31:54 PM | message detail |
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When the day of the match finally came, Crono jumped out to a big lead
using the powerful Chrono Trigger night vote, and despite all of the
trends, the stats topic was already talking about Snake’s chances
against the silent hero. The rest of the board was talking about how
Sonic had choked yet again and how he should be kicked out of the Noble
Nine. BUT NOT SO FAST, MY FRIENDS! </Corso> Yours truly made a special BOLD PREDICTION the day before this match. Sir Crono | Posted 11/9/2006 3:15:57 PM | message detail BOLD PREDICTION: Sonic makes a big day vote comeback over Crono tomorrow for the win! And with Sonic down 2207 votes to Crono, the comeback began. For the early morning hours and the early afternoon, Sonic made some decent slices. As he got closer, we waited to see if something wonky (Whoa! Microsoft Word spellchecker recognizes this word?!) would happen with the after school vote to save Crono. As it turned out, Sonic turned the heat up even higher, as he started getting 55% updates with regularity. When he took the lead, he didn’t even bother looking back to see if Crono was coming. In the end, Sonic had completed the largest successful comeback in contest history to score his first win over a Noble Niner and his first ever Final Four appearance. And what a way to do it! That should go a long way to erase the stigma he had developed over the years. Anyway, as a fervent support of Sonic in the contests, that win felt good, so I had to devote some time to it. As far as the match at hand is concerned, it’s very difficult to say who has the advantage. I posted a long list of “What if?” scenarios to try to determine who the favorite should be. For the sake of space (as this write-up is already going to be lengthy), I’ll just link to it: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/detail.php?board=585007&topic=31562699&message=346900472 As you can see, there really is nothing decisive favoring one character over the other. If this match isn’t close, I’ll be shocked. In terms of straight up performances this contest, I’d have to give the edge to Solid Snake, though if they had swapped places in the bracket, we might be saying the same thing about Sonic. After all, he did have to face the strongest non-Noble Niner in round two, who’s essentially a lock to be ranked higher than Mega Man in the stats at this point. Plus, he will EASILY have the bracket votes in his favor, for whatever that’s worth. This late in the contest, I do wonder how many will bother still sticking to their brackets, but if this match is as close as it’s looking to be, it might make a difference. In terms of overall intangibles, the advantage probably goes to Sonic. After all, the Blue Blur is a legend, and we have a better idea of where he stands relatively since Crono isn’t looking to have changed much. With Snake, it’s hard to say because none of his matches are too conclusive. Regardless, the match against Mega Man is probably the single most impressive performance this contest. However, looking at all of those potential scenarios I posted in the link, I like the ones that favor Sonic winning moreso than I do the ones that favor Solid Snake winning. Either way, random variation could just take a crap on all of that anyway, so it doesn’t matter much, really. In terms of favorites, I prefer Solid Snake, but for some reason, I always find myself rooting for Sonic the Hedgehog in these contests. Regardless of who wins, I’ll be happy, and I’ll be even happier if they can beat Samus! However, if fate holds to form, my Sonic Bracket Curse (predicting Sonic to go one match farther than he actually does, as I have him winning the entire male bracket but losing to Samus) will pull through here and Snake will win. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 8:32:20 PM | message detail |
| I wrote all of this not to give you a prediction!
The percentage here is in fact Ulti’s, as he texted me on my cell phone
and told me to give the following prediction for Snake/Sonic. I just
decided to be greedy and take advantage of the opportunity to do a
write-up for this match since I can’t do the official “Guest Analysis”
for this match. Ulti’s Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog with 50.96% (But if Leonhart had an official prediction for this match, it’d be Solid Snake with 50.00004%. Closest match EVER? YOU BET!) HM’s Analysis Solid Snake Previous Matches: Solid Snake – 82.15% -- 86,697 Soma Cruz – 17.85% -- 19,487 Solid Snake – 57.59% -- 78,314 Squall Leonhart – 42.41% -- 57,666 Solid Snake – 57.16% -- 69,085 Yoshi – 42.84% -- 51,781 Solid Snake – 55.33% -- 70,163 Mega Man – 44.67% -- 56,648 Sonic the Hedgehog Previous Matches: Sonic the Hedgehog – 80.75% -- 87,757 CATS – 19.25% -- 20,925 Sonic the Hedgehog – 52.09% -- 64,699 Vincent Valentine – 47.91% -- 59,497 Sonic the Hedgehog – 60.19% -- 79,761 Luigi – 39.81% -- 52,760 Sonic the Hedgehog – 50.77% -- 64,027 Crono – 49.23% -- 62,087 Now this is pretty damn unexpected. I’m not sure most of us figured that both Snake and Sonic would be here in the Male Bracket Finals after having beaten Mega Man and Crono, respectively. These two getting here also means that every Noble Nine character has beaten another fellow Noble Nine character before! It’s especially good to see that Sonic got over the hump of being known as a “choker” against the Noble Nine after his very impressive swing of about 4,000 votes total. This match, to me, is just about as dead even as you can possibly get. Snake has been dominating throughout this contest beating opponent after opponent with little trouble. Sonic has taken down some impressive people this contest himself – Vincent, Luigi, and Crono. I’m not sure where the advantage lies – perhaps in the brackets which favor Snake – but I do know that whoever wins shouldn’t do it by very much at all. Snake and Sonic have always seemed to bring up the rear of the Noble Nine; in 2003, it was Sonic, but in 2004, it was Snake. It was Snake again in 2005. Since their performances to me are so split, I’m going to give Sonic the edge here simply because he’s consistently ranked higher than Snake with the exception of one year. Sure, this Snake looks quite different from any previous one we’ve seen – but Sonic looks like his strongest yet as well. This match should be a worthy conclusion to the male bracket and set up for a fantastic final against Samus. Man, this contest has been just awesome all around. Aitch Emm’s Bracket: GANONDORF BELIEVE Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Solid Snake – 49.5% ; Sonic the Hedgehog – 50.5% Aitch Emm’s Vote: …Sonic for Ganon! Yoblazer’s Analysis You know, I've realized something over the past couple of days. Even with mass shake-ups, great matches, and one of my favorite characters ever battling it out for the male title, when my bracket is broken, I just don't care nearly as much. I've barely checked the Stats Topic or the match updates all day, and it leads me to wonder what in the Sam Hills the other guys in there are talking about. Probably this match! Yep, that must be it. This is a fantastic final four match, and I'm sure I'll receive a nerdy jolt of energy as soon as I F5 and see the picture change. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 8:33:09 PM | message detail |
| The first thing that strikes me about this match
is the irony of the whole thing. For years, we have basically regarded
it as law that Sonic the Hedgehog and Solid Snake were the two weakest
Noble 9 members. They were, of course, the group's lone two members who
were winless against the rest of the Noble 9. How awesome is it, then,
that both of them had to beat out other N9 members just to get here?
Fantastic, truly is. So, they're both here, and they've both overcome
some huge hurdles, but it sure ain't over yet. One of these two will go
on to face Samus Aran in the contest finals, while the other will have
to spend a year thinking of the glory he let slip through his fingers.
Who will move on? Whose cuisine reigns supreme? It's almost impossible to say who, if either, have the upper hand. For starters, both of looked damn good. In addition, most of their matches are riddled with questions. How far did Mega Man drop? How high did Vincent boost? Was there SFF in Snake/Squall? Was there SFF in Sonic/Luigi? How did Snake's sprite affect him? The list goes on and on. Good arguments can be made for both characters, and the guy who flips a coin has as good a chance calling this correctly as the guy who spends hours in thought. So, who am I taking? I think anyone who knows me knows the answer. While Sonic has had a great tournament thus far, Snake has been the star. He's had four matches and has overperformed four times. He disposed of fodder the way you're supposed to dispose of fodder. He surprised many versus Squall. He brushed off an asstastic sprite and kicked the crap out of Yoshi. And then, to top it all off, he avenged two prior losses and absolutely humiliated Mega Man. Before stepping onto center stage every time, he has turned around, looked at the board, and said "Colonel, what do you mean??" which, roughly translated, means "I'm going to win this ****." Don't forget to scan that cardboard box, Ms. Aran. My prediction: Solid Snake def. Sonic the Hedgehog (52-48) Lopen’s Analysis Well, I know you've all heard it before… Mega Man hasn't lost a step! And he hasn't! I refuse to believe it. With the exception of Solid Snake's match, Mega Man didn't disappoint me this year! Nope! So why then, is Snake here? Massive Snake boost. Trust me, man. It's a boost, it's massive. It's possibly because of his NEWCOMER status, possibly because of something else. Probably both! Snake has been on a roll this year: ain't no one gonna stop him. If Mega Man can't GRACEFULLY beat Snake, no one can. I stand by that. Seriously though. Look at the matches. Has Mega Man really looked that much worse than Sonic or Crono this year? 54% on Sora isn't looking as good as 54% on Auron, that's true. But how true? Could Sora be near elite at this point? Well, I don't think it's out of the question. I point you again to Riku/Yoshi… Riku did well against Yoshi. Sora should be stronger than Riku. Yoshi's a near elite and did fairly well against Snake. But then again, both of em are extrapolated through Snake. So I don't know what I'm trying to prove with that. Maybe Snake pulled something fishy on Mega Man? I don't know if I'd go that far. Maybe I'm still in denial about Mega Man dropping that far. Maybe I'm wrong and Sonic will make this a match? I'll believe it (or disbelieve it even more) after this match. I honestly hope I'm wrong here, an anti-climatic male bracket final would be a real bummer. I feel funny pulling for Sonic here, since I at least claim to like Snake more… but I would really rather him win this! But anyway, that's not important to my analysis, right? Right. I don't drive my analyses on hope… Snake should win this without too big a struggle… I stand by that! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 8:33:43 PM | message detail |
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So uh… Sonic… you'd better win in a close one, or you better lose hard to make Mega Man look good. Okay? And just for good luck: http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c38/NeoX-Death/CFvMarle.jpg. Kill that enemy of everlasting peace, Sonic! … that analysis felt so random... and indecisive, too! I'm sorry! Lopen's Prediction: Solid Snake with 53.99% KH’s Analysis lol x-stats history SOLID SNAKE "A name means nothing on the battlefield." Summer 2002 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 9th Place [35.23%] Summer 2003 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 8th Place [34.74%] Summer 2004 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 12th Place [30.82%] Summer 2005 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 9th Place [33.88%] And continuing his string of incredible performances, Snake does what NO ONE thought he could do. Screw not letting a non-Noble Niner crack 45% on him, he doesn't let MEGA MAN crack 45% on his ass. One vicious beatdown en route to getting over the hump later, and Snake's two matches away from winning the contest. From winning the contest. Don't stop now! SONIC THE HEDGEHOG "What can I say? I die hard." Summer 2002 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 5th place [41.05%] Summer 2003 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 10th place [34.92%] Summer 2004 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 8th place [33.56%] Summer 2005 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 8th Place [35.28%] And Sonic puts the demons of his past to rest likewise, getting over the hump and destroying my bracket by defeating the man who once went toe-to-toe with Mario, Crono! And with such great victories on both ends, this match is one hell of an unpredictable sucker. May the best character win. (i.e. Solid Snake) Notable Releases Since Last Appearance Solid Snake: Metal Gear Solid 2: Subsistence (PS2), Super Smash Brothers Brawl Trailer (Internet) Sonic the Hedgehog: Sonic Rush (DS) Upcoming Releases Solid Snake: Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (PS3), Super Smash Brothers Brawl (WII) Sonic the Hedgehog: Sonic the Hedgehog (PS3, X360), Sonic and the Secret Rings (WII) How funny. Last year, my #1 (Snake) and #2 (Mario) character faced off in the Final Four. I was immensely pleased with that match, as Snake did very well on Mario and put those who had been calling for his head that year in their place. This year, my #1 (Snake) and #3 (Sonic) character are facing off in the Final Four. Except this time, the only way that I'll be truly pleased is if Snake pulls the win here -- and he's got a damn good shot at it. In fact, unlike in the Mega Man match, I'm calling him the favorite here. Despite the fact that Mega Man had been underwhelming prior to being blasted away by Snake, it's still Mega Man. When I gave my prediction last time I did it being fully aware that such numbers would make him the favorite to take the main bracket in my eyes (hence the tagline). Snake outdid them significantly. Mega Man could simply suck EVEN MORE, but I'm not buying it. Other than that, it's the same pluses for Snake that he's had so far. He's looked extremely impressive in every match -- the only one that can really be construed against him is Yoshi, and really, I've seen Snake in the sprite round enough to actually consider that performance impressive. And, again...not letting MM crack 45% is no joke. Sonic can win this, but I feel good calling Snake the favorite. He deserves it, and hopefully he doesn't stop his run now. Karma Hunter's Vote: VOTE SNAKE Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Solid Snake with 53.35%. Let's see if this prediction works this time around! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 8:34:18 PM | message detail |
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Upset Potential: 0% UPSET ALERT UPSET ALERT UPSET ALERT But unlike Mega Man, Sonic's been impressive in his own right this year. A big win over CATS, a convincing margin over the toughened Vincent, blowing away Luigi and edging out Crono. This is a stronger Sonic -- and while he doesn't look as improved as the toughened Snake, he doesn't need to be seeing as how he already had the head start to begin with. Really, we can only rely on stats so much here. Sonic making Snake look worse than Vincent wouldn't surprise me (though it would certainly sadden me), and Snake could whip him just as easily. This is what the contest was like back in 2002, and it's fantastic – just grab on to something, hold on, and root for your favorites right down to the wire! The match we've been calling for since the Noble Nine's invention is here -- and here like no one expected!!! Upset Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog with 50.32% Guest’s Analysis - Lady Ashe It is time... The male competitors have fought amongst themselves in a great struggle to determine who is the greatest of them all, and it is down to two. Solid Snake is the first of these two masterful men. He is the fan favourite to win the contest, but few of those higher ups saw his ascension to the top tier of male competitors coming. The other of these titans is Sonic the Hedgehog. He shocked everybody by defeating the insider favourite to win the whole thing this year. Snake's match was rather anti-climatic, while Sonic's match had the largest vote swing ever in these contests. Will this one be a nail-biter or will it be another solid victory? Let's take a more in depth look at the competitors! Solid Snake has been looking pretty dominant this contest, and aims to keep that up on his way to the Battle Royale. In the first two rounds he performed much better than expected against Soma Cruz and Squall Leonhart, and in the third round he did the same despite having one of his famous Solid **** pictures. Those matches aren't as important at this point, though. What is important is his match last round against Mega Man. Snake absolutely destroyed Mega Man, with a difference in percentage of nearly 11%. That's just ridiculous. It's not even funny. If the previous matches in this contest are anything to go by, Snake looks set to take this one with ease. However, this year's previous matches aren't all that there is to work with here. It is pretty obvious that Snake has boosted here, although the extent of this is yet to be determined. In addition to this, Snake should receive another boost from FFXII. It is pretty commonly accepted by now that Snake has some sort of SFF with Final Fantasy characters, and FF characters are all getting a nice boost from their newly released game. This can be seen by looking at Tifa/Samus and Yuna/Zelda, so if the trend of MGS/FF SFF keeps up Snake should be getting a fair amount of extra votes in this match against Sonic. On the other hand, Sonic hasn't been looking too shabby himself. In the first round he put up a great performance on CATS, who is sometimes viewed as the best value for predicting the winner of the contest. He seemed to have lost his step a bit in the second round against Vincent, but Vincent starred in a new game and was in a popular movie since the last contest, making Sonic's performance look better than some had originally thought. His third round performance wasn't anything noteworthy on either end, but his fourth round match against Crono was one that barely anybody saw coming. He managed to defeat one of the two primary competitors for the main bracket, dominating from the moment the morning hit and never letting up. Snake may have looked fabulous in the previous rounds, but Sonic has certainly been no slouch himself. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 8:35:09 PM | message detail |
| What does Sonic have going for him heading into
this match? He seems to have received a rather large boost to be able
to defeat a character that smashed Auron fresh off of Kingdom Hearts 2.
This certainly isn't as significant as the boost that Snake received
from SSBB hype and FFXII combined, but it doesn't have to be when one
considers the fact that Sonic was ahead of Snake in the x-stats last
year. Sonic looks to be at a disadvantage here, but it isn't a major
one and so more analysis needs to be done to determine a winner! What does all of this mean? Well, both of these characters have had admirable performances up to this point, with Snake looking slightly more impressive. They have both boosted, although Snake has most likely boosted to a higher degree. Toss in the fact that Sonic was stronger than Snake last year, and it looks like we're going to have a nice 50/50 split. Making the reasonable assumption that Mega Man and Zero dropped at the same rate doesn't help this predicament at all, as that also results in a 50/50 split. However, I am forced to make a call and based on Snake's impressing with the day vote yesterday, I'm going to have to go with him. It's close though, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Sonic managed to pull out the win. My prediction? Snake with 51.42%. Crew Consensus: Congratulations, you made it through all the write-ups! The Crew favors Snake 5-2 in this close, exciting match. |
| xp1337 | Posted 11/11/2006 8:37:10 PM | message detail |
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GANONDORF BELIEVE Best part of the write-ups, by far. >_> --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? SC2k6 (110/128) Samus v Aeris |
| Big Bob | Posted 11/11/2006 8:45:49 PM | message detail |
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Big Bob's completely biased and nonsensical analysis Sonic and Snake both rock. Neither has an advantage going into the match. But if Sonic wins, we get to see THIS on the front page: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v674/ImBigBob/BigBobSamusSonic-1.png Bob's Prediction: Sonic with 50.01% --- Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128. |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 11/11/2006 8:46:12 PM | message detail |
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Pics are up, Sonic has an advantage in 3 out of the four, with the last one split. --- - Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 8:47:13 PM | message detail |
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Mine didn't get picked again? I thought this was better than my last submission. Then again, my ticket still says "Open" Here it is, by the way (though not the final version, but close enough): http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/1713/snakesonicmm2copyzn0.png --- Moltar Status: 17th on the leaderboard! Go my alt! Snake vs. Sonic - Bracket: N/A - Vote: Snake (120/144) |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 8:47:59 PM | message detail |
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I don't care who wins as long as it's a close and exciting match, but
personally I see Snake having a slight edge. He needs to create a
convincing lead during the night vote though, considering how much he
sucks during the day. I'd seriously expect snake to lose the day vote
against crono, and won't call his victory ensured unless he gets a lead
of like 5k. He's just that terrible with the day vote. --- Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others. |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 8:49:04 PM | message detail |
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and won't call his victory ensured unless he gets a lead of like 5k This is referring to the upcoming match, not what would happen against crono. --- Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 8:49:26 PM | message detail |
| You keep saying that, but after seeing Mega Man
swing less than a point on him with the day I'm not believing it any
more. The Blue Bomber swung FAR more on Crono last year, so something
needed to change with him to keep Snake's day *that* bad. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 11/11/2006 8:50:17 PM | message detail |
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I don't work at all tomorrow (thank ****ing god after this brutal 9
hour shift on the busiest day before the Christmas season), so I get to
watch this Sonic match the whole way through. Now that I'm watching it, he's going to lose. Just like every year... --- - Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII. |
| LinkLegend27 | Posted 11/11/2006 8:50:23 PM | message detail |
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That's a good pic, Moltar. --- Signature |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 8:50:41 PM | message detail |
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But it uses SSBB Snake, which doomed it !! --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 8:51:04 PM | message detail |
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I'd seriously expect snake to lose the day vote against crono No comment. Just another bias saying. --- I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 8:51:54 PM | message detail |
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I sent another one in the Comments section! But it had Naked Snake >.> --- Moltar Status: 17th on the leaderboard! Go my alt! Snake vs. Sonic - Bracket: N/A - Vote: Snake (120/144) |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 8:52:46 PM | message detail |
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You keep saying that, but after seeing Mega Man swing less than a
point on him with the day I'm not believing it any more. The Blue
Bomber swung FAR more on Crono last year, so something needed to change
with him to keep Snake's day *that* bad. Mega man is hardly a beast with the day vote, and gaining a full percent when he's that high up in percentage is hard to do. Maybe I'm wrong and snake won't fall apart in the daytime for once, but until I see it, I'll continue to believe that his day vote is about as good as alucards. --- Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others. |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 8:54:27 PM | message detail |
| You know, you guys say cjayc doesn't have a sense
of humour, but considering the pictures he picked, I'd say he has a
very sadistic one. >_> --- Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others. |
| trizob the hedgehog | Posted 11/11/2006 8:56:05 PM | message detail |
| Snake's day vote isn't nearly as bad as Crono's,
but I think if Sonic keeps it close enough now, he should be able to
come back in the day. Sonic should probably keep the lead under 1000
though, and maybe less, if he wants to win. --- "No, not just an urge - more than that. It was my destiny to be here; in the box." - Naked Snake |
| o4o22oo4 | Posted 11/11/2006 8:56:59 PM | message detail |
| Hell, this isn't so bad. Now if Snake wins, I'm a happy camper, but if Snake loses, CJC has very conviently allowed me to blame the godawful match pics as the factor responsible for Snake's demise. |
| Big Bob | Posted 11/11/2006 8:58:24 PM | message detail |
| You know, I can see Mega Man dropping by quite a
lot. After Sora's first two matches, people thought he stayed constant
from last contest, and then did well on MM. --- Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128. |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 11/11/2006 8:58:26 PM | message detail |
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You know, you guys say cjayc doesn't have a sense of humour CJayC has an awesome sense of humor. --- - Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 8:59:14 PM | message detail |
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Maybe I'm wrong and snake won't fall apart in the daytime for once,
but until I see it, I'll continue to believe that his day vote is about
as good as alucards. He hasn't for four rounds in a row, really. Looking at his percentage by the hour this year, he's really improved. The only reason the dropoff even seems nearly as bad nowadays is because he's so beastly in the first hours for some reason (the Snake/Squall match is a good indicator of this). He's of course going to lose the day vote, but in a Snake match we've come to expect much more than we've seen this year. I don't expect another Snake/Bowser collapse today if the time comes. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Janus5000 | Posted 11/11/2006 8:59:48 PM | message detail |
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Upset Potential: 0% UPSET ALERT UPSET ALERT UPSET ALERT XD Samus with 45% of the brackets. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 9:00:06 PM | message detail |
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After Sora's first two matches, people thought he stayed constant from last contest NO ONE thought that. Sora did significantly better than he was projected to on Gordon, at the least. People just thought the KH2 boost was too...tame. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 9:00:16 PM | message detail |
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1 100% 7 2 0% 0 TOTAL VOTES 7 errr --- Moltar Status: 17th on the leaderboard! Go my alt! Snake vs. Sonic - Bracket: N/A - Vote: Snake (120/144) |
| cyko | Posted 11/11/2006 9:00:26 PM | message detail |
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well, i have sided with the match pics and Sonic for this one!! i feel like such a sell-out... --- i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest. Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!! |
| Janus5000 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:00:39 PM | message detail |
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1 62.07% 54 2 37.93% 33 TOTAL VOTES 87 Uh... --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4 |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/11/2006 9:00:44 PM | message detail |
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1 OR... 2? --- SC2k6 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Solid Snake with 50.10% |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2006 9:00:45 PM | message detail |
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Oh dear god XD --- I suppose people like IX because it was most similar to their favorite cartoon, Dragon Ball Z.- poupadis |
| daverath | Posted 11/11/2006 9:00:49 PM | message detail |
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1 100% 9 2 0% 0 TOTAL VOTES 9 go go 1! --- putting the laughter in manslaughter |
| Big Bob | Posted 11/11/2006 9:00:49 PM | message detail |
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XD GO 2! --- Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 9:00:52 PM | message detail |
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...WTF ...DON'T YOU DARE DELAY THIS THING CEEJ --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/11/2006 9:01:14 PM | message detail |
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It's obviously the work of the Patriots... --- Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum! |
| dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 9:01:23 PM | message detail |
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Oh man, 1 is ttally owning this match, the main bracket is definitely his for the taking. --- Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others. |
