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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 425

LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 10:22:00 AM | message detail
Black Turtle, i am sorry but why do you insist that Megaman is constant.

Because he lied about being able to change his opinions.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 10:23:21 AM | message detail
It makes more sense for Snake to boost through the roof due to him being exposed to a new fanbase than anything else.

...No, Snake boosting ABOVE Mario due to a couple of trailers does not make more sense than Mega Man falling a couple of percentage points.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:23:55 AM | message detail
Hey, hey now! Snake also had MGS3: Subsistence!!!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/11/2006 10:25:10 AM | message detail
I agree with Black Turtle, the following is far more logical.

Axel is above Kairi
Ryu boosted like crazy
Sora boosted insanely.
Snake jumped about 10% on MM in a year.
Yoshi boosted.
Dante boosted.
Riku boosted insanely
Squall wasn't SFFed

Instead of.. this

Mega Man dropped.

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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:25:19 AM | message detail
Don't forget Metal Gear Ac!d 2!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:26:30 AM | message detail
Surely the Metal Gear Solid: Digital Graphic Novel boosted him a percentage point or so as well, no?!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/11/2006 10:27:36 AM | message detail
Snakes on a plane probably boosted him too. -_-
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:28:03 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 10:29:42 AM | message detail
I lent out mgs1 to a friend. Surely that helped bring him up a few more percentage points.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:31:17 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:32:21 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
zanmato_wb | Posted 11/11/2006 10:35:39 AM | message detail
Hey zwong, I live in Singapore and I saw the news as well!

Seriously. But I do live in Singapore -_-"
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:36:20 AM | message detail
Ni hao, wo shi xing jia po ren.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:36:45 AM | message detail
I mean Xin not Xing.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
Iamyoursnake | Posted 11/11/2006 10:42:47 AM | message detail
zanmato_wb, are you really living in Singapore.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:54:41 AM | message detail
From MyworldisSmurf
I agree with Black Turtle, the following is far more logical.

Axel is above Kairi
Ryu boosted like crazy
Sora boosted insanely.
Snake jumped about 10% on MM in a year.
Yoshi boosted.
Dante boosted.
Riku boosted insanely
Squall wasn't SFFed

Instead of.. this

Mega Man dropped.


I see no reason for Axel to not be above Kairi, Ryu only boosted if you take his 2k5 value as legitimate, Sora had every reason to boost through the roof, Snake jumped 10% on MM over 2 years, Yoshi overperformed due to Solid ****, Dante was affected by that, Riku was underrated somewhat last year and had KH2 + Yoshi overperformance to make him look stronger than he is and Squall was SFF'd but is closer to Vincent's value than we thought/

<_<

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
zanmato_wb | Posted 11/11/2006 10:55:25 AM | message detail
Yea i am.. But i dont think its nice to talk about Singapore here ya.
We are like less than 0.1% of the people i guess.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 10:57:53 AM | message detail
I think we can agreewwith one thing: Vincent and Tifa are locks to get higher than Megaman =(

Auron and Zelda is also very possible.
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
wavedash101 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:59:14 AM | message detail
If Tifa is a lock than Zelda is a lock too....
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Iamyoursnake | Posted 11/11/2006 10:59:57 AM | message detail
zanmato_wb and zwong, nice to meet you, i am a Malaysian. OK, let us keep quiet about the Singapore matter and continue with the contest discussion.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 11:01:48 AM | message detail
If Tifa is a lock than Zelda is a lock too....

No, she's not.

Samus needs 45.11% on Snake for Tifa = Mega Man.
Samus needs 49.82% on Snake for Zelda = Mega Man.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 11:04:16 AM | message detail
From Karma Hunter
If Tifa is a lock than Zelda is a lock too....

No, she's not.

Samus needs 45.11% on Snake for Tifa = Mega Man.
Samus needs 49.82% on Snake for Zelda = Mega Man.


It's a good thing she won't break 44% <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
CountCrazy007 | Posted 11/11/2006 11:06:24 AM | message detail
So who's the weakest Noble Nine at the moment?
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4th Place of the Fall 2005 10-Year Anniversary Contest
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 11:07:28 AM | message detail
Probably Mega Man, although he's still close enough to Crono, Sonic and likely Samus to be able to beat them with random variation

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 11:07:46 AM | message detail
Barring Snake destroying everything in his path like a monster of destruction, Mega Man by far.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 11:10:22 AM | message detail
easily Megaman. Unlike Megaman, the rest of the noble nine has at least once got above 70% in a match, and all who is in the semi finals got above 80% (Zelda got 86% on Carmen Sandiego XD)
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
wavedash101 | Posted 11/11/2006 11:12:29 AM | message detail
No, she's not.

Samus needs 45.11% on Snake for Tifa = Mega Man.
Samus needs 49.82% on Snake for Zelda = Mega Man.


Yeah cause we totally are discounting ZSS. That 49% on Samus is totally not an overperformance...>_>

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 11:14:13 AM | message detail
Wavedash's post brings up a good question, how are we going to adjust Tifa (if at all) for the x-stats?

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/11/2006 11:16:28 AM | message detail
Mega Man is the weakest by a longshot. I still don't think Snake will beat Sonic.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 11:16:37 AM | message detail
I don't think we can >_>
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 11:18:03 AM | message detail
At this point I can't see Snake losing to Sonic. Even if you think Mega Man dropped, he was equal to Sonic last year, and a random drop of 7% is too much to be considered legit.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 11:19:25 AM | message detail
Tifa will likely not be adjusted. There's simply no real way we can.

The closest way we can adjust her is by using an older value for Jill and adjusting her down through that, though Jill did much better on Peach than virtually everyone gave her credit for. Using Jill 2k4 seems like selling them short.

And using Jill 2k3, well...that puts her at Samus' 2k3 level, to be blunt (which raises suspicions...was it really an overperformance?).
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/11/2006 11:20:03 AM | message detail
I'd just set Tifa to her old value and note that she's probably underrated.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 11:20:44 AM | message detail
In other words, wait for the contest to finish out. If Samus wipes up the male winner without a problem, good on her, it'll be obvious Tifa is too high and we'll adjust her down.

...but if she disappoints, adjustment may not be necessary.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 11:21:30 AM | message detail
Yeah Megaman looks odd, but he has looking odd the whole contest. And if Snake beats Sonic then suddenly Yoshi > Bowser. And if you say Yoshi did better thanks to Solid **** (which wasn't even close to as bad as when he faced Bowser) then Dante has gotten much weaker.
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
wavedash101 | Posted 11/11/2006 11:23:11 AM | message detail
So would you take Tifa to beat Vincent...or Ganon, Zelda, Squall, Bowser, Auron....?

And would you take Tifa to beat MM?

That one match is really screwing as of the data we have now...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 11:23:20 AM | message detail
Yeah Megaman looks odd, but he has looking odd the whole contest. And if Snake beats Sonic then suddenly Yoshi > Bowser. And if you say Yoshi did better thanks to Solid **** (which wasn't even close to as bad as when he faced Bowser) then Dante has gotten much weaker.

No he doesn't. Based on a constant Crono (which is what that presumes) Dante will look more or less constant after a downward adjustment
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 11:25:31 AM | message detail
Whatever KH we will see tomorrow. I agree that Snake is the favourite, but anyone who can defeat Crono has a good chance to defeat any character in the bracket.
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 11:28:20 AM | message detail
And...a quick check confirms, using Jill 2k4 results in a weaker Tifa from 2k5 if I did that right.

It is weird how Tifa is expected to get almost as much on Jill as Samus is in 2003 (and they're both in the same division, so if Samus is underrated so is Jill). That makes things line up in a perverted sort of way, but it also calls into question exactly why Jill bombed so badly in 2004. I'd never take Arabusa to beat Peach.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
swirIdude | Posted 11/11/2006 11:44:00 AM | message detail
Heh, perverted sort of way.

<_<

What, don't say you didn't read that, people.
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ENTER THE KAIBA CAVE!
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/11/2006 12:04:59 PM | message detail
I doubt it'll get accepted because it favours Snake, but my take on tomorrow's match:

http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/RPGuySnakeSonic.jpg
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 12:07:23 PM | message detail
Just out of curiosity, is this the first match Snake's been in that will have usermade pics?

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 12:07:45 PM | message detail
And by Snake I mean Sonic

darn u letter s!

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/11/2006 12:08:06 PM | message detail
Mario/Snake last year had user pics.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/11/2006 12:08:54 PM | message detail
This is Sonic's first time, though.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 12:10:51 PM | message detail
And since we've had 2 upsets since the last time I asked it: If you could go back in time and tell the stats topic the result of one match this year, what would it be and why?

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 12:19:56 PM | message detail
It'd be Samus/Tifa, same as before. Every result would have seemed somewhat plausible to people back then except that. Samus is the one character in the lower NN that people tend not to perceive as vulnerable to upset threats.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 12:20:25 PM | message detail
Although Snake > MM with 55% would have definitely raised some eyebrows
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
dethfdddddh | Posted 11/11/2006 12:22:34 PM | message detail
Going back to 2k4 and telling people that Luigi would beat Zero would be fun....
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 12:25:00 PM | message detail
If you could go back in time and tell the stats topic the result of one match this year, what would it be and why?

Sub-Zero over Masterchief, yay 1 point matches.
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog