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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 425

FourthDeus | Posted 11/11/2006 9:35:44 AM | message detail
A beautiful contest. Sonic makes it to the Final Four for the first time, both Sonic and Snake both beat a fellow Noble Niner for the first time, and Mega Man won't be ranked as one of the top nine performers this contests.

Simply beautiful. Now, all I'd need would be for Sonic and Snake to have an epic battle, but have Sonic come out the victor, just so he can COMPLETELY DESTROY Samus.
---
5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:36:17 AM | message detail
Heh, I knew Zelda was more SFF-resistant than that goofy pig. This is right around what I expected, too - 45%. I should have maintained some grasp on realism and stuck with it.
---
I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:36:51 AM | message detail
A beautiful contest. Sonic makes it to the Final Four for the first time, both Sonic and Snake both beat a fellow Noble Niner for the first time, and Mega Man won't be ranked as one of the top nine performers this contests.

Simply beautiful. Now, all I'd need would be for Sonic and Snake to have an epic battle, but have Sonic come out the victor, just so he can COMPLETELY DESTROY Samus.


Completely destroy????????????? Come on, Samus isn't so weak.

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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
WhiteTuxedo | Posted 11/11/2006 9:37:56 AM | message detail
Sonic got 56ish on Tifa last year?

He's obviously boosted quite a bit. He takes Samus down hard.
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-The biggest Terry Bogard fan ever.-
-The biggest Sonic fan ever.-
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:41:10 AM | message detail
Sonic got 56ish on Tifa last year?

He's obviously boosted quite a bit. He takes Samus down hard.


So you think Tifa getting near 50% on Samus was legit. Btw, Tifa boosted as well so Sonic won't be able to get 56% on her again if they ever meet this year.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:41:20 AM | message detail
Sonic is now far too entrenched with Nintendo fans to take Samus down. Snake is the only shot the chaps have.
---
I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 9:45:03 AM | message detail
If Samus/Tifa was the result of a FFXII influx, that should mean the same for Crono/Auron. And Crono beat Auron by a HELL of a lot more than Samus did Tifa, and Sonic beat Crono. I can't see Auron and Tifa being too far off in strength. Not to mention that if there is a FFXII influx right now, I wouldn't expect it to do any favors for her against Snake if he makes it there... <_<

And if it was ZSS (which is basically her one hope), what's to say that she won't get it in at least ONE match picture in the finals? Sure, it may have a 'diluted' effect, but that may be all she needs to tip the scales against presumably MUCH stronger characters.

And we all know that the 2k4 match means jack by now. Snake turned a 57-43 loss into a 55-45 win, one of these two turning a similar loss into a 50.5-49.5 win is hardly implausible.
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
WhiteTuxedo | Posted 11/11/2006 9:47:31 AM | message detail
Sonic is going to win. There is no denying it.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=31537552

Everyone look at that link for great justice. Tell me just how smart I am for making it, too.

(I am True Godhand.)
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-The biggest Terry Bogard fan ever.-
-The biggest Sonic fan ever.-
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:51:43 AM | message detail
WhiteTuxedo, i will challenge you to a sig bet for 1 month. I have Snake over Sonic. I will like to see if your prophecy will overcome my intuition.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 9:54:42 AM | message detail
And if it was ZSS (which is basically her one hope)

One hope, which is an obvious fact.

Well maybe that's going a bit too far, but it's really damned likely none the less.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 9:56:48 AM | message detail
Preliminary female bracket stats!

Samus Aran – 50.00%
Tifa Lockhart – 49.51%
Princess Zelda – 44.86%
Aeris Gainsborough – 38.70%
Yuna – 38.56%
Princess Peach – 33.62%
Jill Valentine – 33.61%
Rikku – 31.00%
Chun-Li – 30.20%
KOS-MOS – 29.68%
Lara Croft – 26.86%
Kairi – 25.87%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 25.52%
The Boss – 25.20%
Claire Redfield – 24.79%
Ivy Valentine – 23.59%
Marle – 23.39%
Amy Rose – 20.52%
Ada Wong – 20.22%
Celes Chere – 19.62%
Kasumi – 18.88%
Terra Branford – 18.44%
Nidoran F – 18.15%
Joanna Dark – 16.93%
Roll – 15.96%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 15.50%
Sarah Kerrigan – 15.23%
Cortana – 13.46%
Carmen Sandiego – 12.49%
Alyx Vance – 12.06%
Princess Daisy – 11.36%
Jade – 9.75%


Heh, Samus/KOS-MOS goes almost exactly as it did in 2003. Funny thing, that. Yuna is projected to beat Rikku with 59.80%, by the way.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 9:56:49 AM | message detail
One hope, which is an obvious fact.

SO obvious, in fact, that virtually no one saw it coming!

Back your theory all you like. But don't insult my intelligence by saying ZSS hurting Samus to that extent was 'obvious'.
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 9:57:58 AM | message detail
And yes, I'm aware that you qualified that statement. But come on.
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 9:58:28 AM | message detail
Zelda's performance today is making it look like the picture didn't hurt her as much as we originally thought, meaning she might have a close match with Sonic/Snake anyway regardless of the picture.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:01:04 AM | message detail
Now that I have had some time looking into the stats they don't seem that bad.

By keeping Sonic constant his whole division seems to be ok with the only unexplained thing is Zero's drop. Snake's division seems to be fine (after you adjust Yoshi's 4-pack) and from the looks of it the winner of Snake/Sonic won't get above 52%. It also looks like Samus has dropped since last year since most of the results using Zelda's half of the bracket bring her down. The only result that looks like Samus may have stayed the same is Rikku through 2k6 Ryu, but if we used adjusted DD Rikku then Samus will also have dropped. The Aeon Division may be overrated, but that's up for debate.

So the mock unadjusted x-stats would look something like this. (with Zelda finishing with 45%)

1. Solid Snake - 50.00%
2. Sonic the Hedgehog - 48.68%
3. Samus Aran - 47.94%
4. Crono - 47.93%
5. Tifa Lockhart - 47.47%
6. Vincent Valentine - 46.43%
7. Mega Man - 44.67%
8. Ganondorf Dragmire - 44.03%
9. Auron - 43.63%
10. Zelda - 43.15%
11. Yoshi - 42.84%
12. Squall Leonhart - 42.41%
13. Dante Sparda - 42.37%
14. Sora - 40.85%
15. Bowser - 40.79%
16. Luigi - 38.76%
17. Riku - 38.38%
18. Ryu - 37.49%
19. Aeris Gainsborough - 37.22%
20. Yuna - 37.09%
21. Kirby - 36.97%
22. Leon Kennedy - 36.35%
23. Zero - 35.88%
24. Sub-Zero - 35.22%
25. Master Chief - 34.54%
26. Princess Peach - 32.23%
27. Jill Valentine - 32.22%
28. Kratos - 32.15%
29. Alucard - 31.06%
30. Rikku - 29.72%
31. Ryu Hayabusa - 29.49%
32. Gordon Freeman - 29.46%
33. Chun Li - 29.05%
34. KOS-MOS - 28.55%
35. The Prince of Persia - 28.32%
36. Axel - 26.92%
37. Lara Croft - 25.83%
38. Kairi - 24.80%
39. Captain Falcon - 24.77%
40. Phoenix Wright - 24.63%
41. Sheena Fujibayashi - 24.30%
42. The Boss - 24.16%
43. Claire Redfield - 23.77%
44. Tidus - 23.73%
45. Ivy Valentine - 22.62%
46. Marle - 22.50%
47. Tingle - 19.92%
48. Amy Rose - 19.75%
49. Ada Wong - 19.39%
50. Celes Chere - 18.81%
51. CATS - 18.74%
52. Kasumi - 18.16%
53. Soma Cruz - 17.85%
54. Terra Branford - 17.73%
55. Nidoran F - 17.40%
56. Joanna Dark - 16.28%
57. Roll - 15.35%
58. Lenneth Valkyrie - 14.86%
59. Sarah Kerrigan - 14.65%
60. Cortana - 12.95%
61. Carmen Sandiego - 12.01%
62. Alyx Vance - 11.60%
63. Princess Daisy - 10.90%
64. Jade - 9.35%

---
"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:02:23 AM | message detail
I like the looks of those stats.
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CB5 Points: 115/128, Current Oracle placement: 22/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/11/2006 10:05:00 AM | message detail
Rikku's division is underrated. >_>
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caps
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:05:26 AM | message detail
Best. Stats. Ever.
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:05:52 AM | message detail
My thoughts:

- This year we're looking at a whole new Zelda, one that's a good deal stronger than her 2k5 self
- Snake is looking to be ridiculously strong, and will beat Sonic with at least 53%
- Mega Man got screwed with bracket placement like no other NNer has before, in terms of getting opponents that have every reason to overperform on him
- Snake will beat Sonic comfortably indicating a constant Crono, slightly boosted Sonic and a slightly fallen Mega Man, but not fallen enough to lose to Vincent or the like
- Snake/Squall was a legitimate match and Snake/Yoshi was an underperformance on Snake's part
- Bowser's value against a constant Crono is legitimate and makes complete sense
- Ganondorf would beat Zelda in a direct matchup before SFF
- Samus will be shown to be alot closer to Sonic/Crono/MM than the upper elites.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:06:17 AM | message detail
3. Samus Aran - 47.94%
4. Crono - 47.93%

That just makes me hate not having that match even more.
---
CB5 Points: 115/128, Current Oracle placement: 22/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana
Who Cares? | Posted 11/11/2006 10:06:19 AM | message detail
Chun above KOS-MOS?...Good! And for Sheena's sake I hope Tifa wasn't a total overperformance. (Sheena=Kratos yo! :P) Wow, seeing how close alot of the characters are to each other would make for some great fourpacks next year!
---
Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Failed! She should've stayed away from the summoner!
*Go play Tales of the Abyss*
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/11/2006 10:06:47 AM | message detail
This year we're looking at a whole new Zelda, one that's a good deal stronger than her 2k5 self

Why would Zelda boost when Ganon hasn't? ...Oh wait, it's Black Turtle. >_<
---
Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/11/2006 10:06:51 AM | message detail
Kasumi is also underrated. Tina beat Gordon Freeman, but Kasumi is projected to lose to him. <_<
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caps
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:07:43 AM | message detail
-Yuna/Zelda and more prominantly Crono/Auron and Samus/Tifa were the result of massive FF12 influx, which I think will start to taper off before the Battle Royale

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/11/2006 10:08:23 AM | message detail
I'm loving the fact that this still means that no one aside from Cloud or Link will ever beat Sephiroth.
---
New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 10:08:38 AM | message detail
Overall stats (with Zelda at 44.86%):

Samus Aran – 41.69%
Tifa Lockhart – 41.28%
Princess Zelda – 37.40%
Aeris Gainsborough – 32.26%
Yuna – 32.15%
Princess Peach – 28.03%
Jill Valentine – 28.02%
Rikku – 25.85%
Chun-Li – 25.18%
KOS-MOS – 24.75%
Lara Croft – 22.39%
Kairi – 21.57%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 21.28%
The Boss – 21.01%
Claire Redfield – 20.67%
Ivy Valentine – 19.67%
Marle – 19.50%
Amy Rose – 17.11%
Ada Wong – 16.86%
Celes Chere – 16.36%
Kasumi – 15.74%
Terra Branford – 15.37%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
Joanna Dark – 14.11%
Roll – 13.31%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 12.93%
Sarah Kerrigan – 12.70%
Cortana – 11.23%
Carmen Sandiego – 10.41%
Alyx Vance – 10.05%
Princess Daisy – 9.47%
Jade – 8.13%

Looks like Aeris didn't drop much, after all!! Chun-Li 2006 > Overrated Chun-Li 2005? That's interesting. Regardless, she's closer to Rikku than she was last year. Whether she went up or Rikku went down is anybody's guess. KOS-MOS and Yuna look unusually strong here, assuming constant Samus.

By the way, this would project Zelda > Ganon.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:08:57 AM | message detail
Who said Ganon didn't boost? He put up good numbers on a clearly boosted Vincent.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:08:58 AM | message detail
Why would Zelda boost when Ganon hasn't? ...Oh wait, it's Black Turtle. >_<

While I am the main proponent of that logic, Turtle does go on to say that Ganondorf will be shown to beat Zelda indirectly without SFF, implying a boost.

Of course, his stats imply that Snake will cakewalk over the entire bracket without dropping below 53% once (because Ganon > Zelda implies Sonic > Samus).
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:09:46 AM | message detail
Of course, his stats imply that Snake will cakewalk over the entire bracket without dropping below 53% once (because Ganon > Zelda implies Sonic > Samus).

We'll see who's laughing <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
FFDragon | Posted 11/11/2006 10:09:55 AM | message detail
23. Zero - 35.88%
24. Sub-Zero - 35.22%


You could almost say that Subby's spot in the x-stats is... Sub-Zero!! *rimshot*

>_>
<_<

*runs*
---
Married to PepsiPlunge June 01, 2005: HERO'S PLUNGE!
(Metal Gear Solid 2)
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 10:10:57 AM | message detail
Snake will beat Sonic comfortably indicating a constant Crono, slightly boosted Sonic and a slightly fallen Mega Man, but not fallen enough to lose to Vincent or the like

Ganondorf would beat Zelda in a direct matchup before SFF


...These two points are a bit irreconcilable.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:11:05 AM | message detail
We'll see who's laughing <_<

You had him losing to Mega Man two days ago. >_>
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/11/2006 10:11:36 AM | message detail
Who said Ganon didn't boost? He put up good numbers on a clearly boosted Vincent.

If that's true then Sonic will beat Samus or Snake will beat Samus by more than he beat Sonic.
---
Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
Super Luigi | Posted 11/11/2006 10:12:58 AM | message detail
Here's an idea for next years contest's.

For the Spring contest, I say we just have a 32 character contest,Mostly just the top 32 characters that everyone likes on this site. That way from the get go we will have awesome matches.

For the Summer contest, It HAS to be a Game contest. It would be so much fun, With new titles like

Zelda TP
Gears of War
Metroid Prime 3?
RE4

And the list goes on

What does everyone think of that?
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Currently playing : Gears of War(Xbox 360), Call of Duty 3(Xbox 360), NHL 2K7(Xbox 360).
XBL GT - SuPeR MiKe 86
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/11/2006 10:14:02 AM | message detail
I'd rather have a Spring (64) Games Contest and an Autumn Character Contest.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 10:14:22 AM | message detail
By the way, in order for Snake to be able to beat a boosted Sonic based on a constant Crono enough for Mega Man not to fall below Vincent (hard to follow, I know), he has to be stronger than Mario now.

...And if you mention Snake getting Nintendo SFF'd by Mario again, I will gouge my eyes out. That was the stupidest post I've read in years.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:14:22 AM | message detail
You had him losing to Mega Man two days ago. >_>

Unlike you, I can change my opinion based on past performances, and everything points to Snake being as strong as Mario indirectly <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 10:15:08 AM | message detail
Unlike you, I can change my opinion based on past performances

Actually, you seem to be rather insistent on a constant Mega Man. You just can't hold to Mega Man > Snake anymore because...well, it didn't happen.
---
"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:15:12 AM | message detail
Here's an idea for next years contest's.

For the Spring contest, I say we just have a 32 character contest,Mostly just the top 32 characters that everyone likes on this site. That way from the get go we will have awesome matches.

For the Summer contest, It HAS to be a Game contest. It would be so much fun, With new titles like

Zelda TP
Gears of War
Metroid Prime 3?
RE4

And the list goes on

What does everyone think of that?


No thanks. I prefer Summer contest to be character contest and i hope CjayC will remove the female division thus allowing Knuckles,Frog,Raiden,Ken,Magus,Shadow to make a comeback.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:15:47 AM | message detail

If that's true then Sonic will beat Samus or Snake will beat Samus by more than he beat Sonic.


I never said that wouldn't happen. I said Samus is roughly on Sonic, Crono and Mega Man's level.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
Who Cares? | Posted 11/11/2006 10:16:06 AM | message detail
Character contests must have 64 characters, always! But yeah, Games need to come back next year!
---
Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Failed! She should've stayed away from the summoner!
*Go play Tales of the Abyss*
dragoontheguy | Posted 11/11/2006 10:16:09 AM | message detail
Back your theory all you like.

No, I think I'd much rather back my fact all I like. >_>

But don't insult my intelligence by saying ZSS hurting Samus to that extent was 'obvious'.

Obvious or not before the match, nothing will stop me from believing it short of Samus flopping terribly in the finals. I'm a stubborn bastard like that sometimes. >_>

I'm attributing it to that for two reasons though: It's logical that looking like a completely different character could hurt her badly, and nothing else seems to make sense when it comes to explaining that unless samus has somehow fallen to the bottom of the noble nine.

Don't take me too seriously though, I was just exaggerating to make my point.
---
Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/11/2006 10:16:23 AM | message detail
Will you shut up. Getting 55% on an upper midcarder doesn't make you of "Mario" strength. There's no concrete proof that Snake has even boosted yet.

- He pwnt fodder.
- SFF match
- Solid **** match
- Character whos popularity has declined rapidly.

---
President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
WhiteTuxedo | Posted 11/11/2006 10:17:13 AM | message detail
Crono and Sonic are obviously far above Mega Man. If you group her with him (which seems feasible considering), I would have to say she'll be a cakewalk.
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-The biggest Terry Bogard fan ever.-
-The biggest Sonic fan ever.-
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/11/2006 10:17:31 AM | message detail
I'd take a female villain contest over another diabolical Games contest, thanks.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:18:44 AM | message detail
From WhiteTuxedo
Crono and Sonic are obviously far above Mega Man. If you group her with him (which seems feasible considering), I would have to say she'll be a cakewalk.

Once again, wait until Snake breaks 54% on Sonic

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 10:19:46 AM | message detail
Black Turtle, i am sorry but why do you insist that Megaman is constant.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 10:19:47 AM | message detail
Will you shut up. Getting 55% on an upper midcarder doesn't make you of "Mario" strength. There's no concrete proof that Snake has even boosted yet.

- He pwnt fodder.
- SFF match
- Solid **** match
- Character whos popularity has declined rapidly.


http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=31683497
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2006 10:21:42 AM | message detail
From zwong1
Black Turtle, i am sorry but why do you insist that Megaman is constant.

Because he has no reason to fall off the map to the degree some people are saying. It makes more sense for Snake to boost through the roof due to him being exposed to a new fanbase than anything else.

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/11/2006 10:21:46 AM | message detail
Black Turtle, i am sorry but why do you insist that Megaman is constant.

He's a comic relief analyst, that's why. ^_~
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.