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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 425

PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/11/2006 7:45:37 AM | message detail
She's still gonna push for 61%, just you wait!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
therealmnm | Posted 11/11/2006 7:49:29 AM | message detail
Hmmmm, what if Samus is getting the Sephiroth VC effect and her last two opponents in the female bracket are overperforming since Samus was already a lock to win that side of the bracket? If Samus goes ahead and beats the male winner fairly easily... I'd think SOMETHING was up. Of course right now it doesn't look like she will... Just a thought though.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/11/2006 7:52:20 AM | message detail
I was actually thinking that too... that and a possible Samus underperformance thanks to Zelda taking up a good portion of her SSB votes. I'm not claiming it, and won't, unless Samus dominates the finals. Right now I just have to wallow in my self-pity.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 7:55:20 AM | message detail
But Samus isn't a lock like Sephiroth was (the pre-contest polls confirm the hell out of this), and there are a good number of people who aren't even aware that we have a male/female split. I'd think it'd be even more apparent in later rounds, since we jump between the male and female halves quickly enough to make it more or less a non-factor to all but the most hardcore following.

It's like how you asked what would happen after all Snake's overperformances and MM's underperformances if MM had still beaten Snake without a problem. It certainly would have presented one...but he didn't.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/11/2006 7:55:50 AM | message detail
Either way... at least the rest of this contest should be interesting. Two debatable matches, and then the BR where we have no idea what might happen.

If Samus is going to be horrifically weak this year, let's go Sonic!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 8:01:47 AM | message detail
Am I the only one who don't care about who wins the main bracket, since Samus and Snake/Sonic will still be in the battle royale?

But it would be sweet if Sonic was stronger than Samus this year ^_^
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/11/2006 8:02:56 AM | message detail
Anyone winning I'm cool with. Sonic wins? Hooray for PoP! Snake wins? Best. Character. Ever. Samus wins handily? OH MAN YOU SEE THT JEEZE UNDERRATED 2 THA MAXXXX

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Who Cares? | Posted 11/11/2006 8:06:16 AM | message detail
Sonic wins: My favorite character in the contest wins! YAY! :)
Samus wins: Hooray, my bracket still looks respectable!
Snake wins: Nice to see a really big shakeup in the contest.

All good in my eyes.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Failed! She should've stayed away from the summoner!
*Go play Tales of the Abyss*
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/11/2006 8:07:47 AM | message detail
Sonic wins: The only good character in the noble nine wins. Yay.
Snake wins: Never played MGS. Semi-Yay.
Samus wins: The worst character in all of eternity wins. ****ing boo.
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caps
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/11/2006 8:11:49 AM | message detail
So this match is a total bust. Oh well.
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 8:13:35 AM | message detail
Sonic wins: A gaming icon wins.
Snake wins: My favourite character wins.
Samus wins: A woman wins.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/11/2006 8:16:06 AM | message detail
Snake winning and placing at least 4th in the Battle Royale would make this contest pretty badass
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 8:17:02 AM | message detail
Sonic wins: A gaming icon wins.
Snake wins: My favourite character wins.
Samus wins: A woman wins.


Words cannot express how much I just busted out laughing right now in the computer lab.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 11/11/2006 8:17:21 AM | message detail
make that two of us.
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xyzzy
Rufus Shinra 18 | Posted 11/11/2006 8:18:25 AM | message detail
Sonic wins: he gets the glory he deserves
Snake wins: Best. Character. Ever. there's still justice int this world
Samus wins over Sonic: apathetic
Samus wins over Snake: Yay for my bracket!
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Z1mZum owned me in the Guru contest.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 8:28:53 AM | message detail
Sonic wins: Wow Gamefaqs has great taste in characters.
Snake wins: Same as if Sonic wins, but I want to see Sonic in the battle royale.
Samus wins: Hahahaha so Tifa > Male bracket? HA HA HA HA!
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/11/2006 8:30:59 AM | message detail
From zwong1
Sonic wins: A gaming icon wins.
Snake wins: My favourite character wins.
Samus wins: A woman wins.


A post by zwong... that didn't piss me off? *goes to remove zwong from his blocked users list on GameFOX*
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
DragoonsKill91 | Posted 11/11/2006 8:32:25 AM | message detail
I'm going to attribute Tifa and Zelda's overperformances to the "Sephiroth factor" (how Ganondorf and Bowser both overperformed on him because they were the ONLY competition), and then laugh at everyone when it turns out to be true next year.

In the meantime, I'm rooting for Sonic to throw everything out of whack, although Snake turning the Noble Nine on its head would be equally amusing. For now he's only really moved up one slot, but we'll see.
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Still here after all this time... meh, not really.
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/11/2006 8:33:41 AM | message detail
You are hoping for Zelda to make a fool out of herself next year? Sorry, not happening.
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 8:33:58 AM | message detail
I'm going to attribute Tifa and Zelda's overperformances to the "Sephiroth factor" (how Ganondorf and Bowser both overperformed on him because they were the ONLY competition), and then laugh at everyone when it turns out to be true next year.

If it IS true, it'll be proven in the finals. If Samus gets beaten there she has no damn excuse.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 11/11/2006 8:34:52 AM | message detail
I don't buy a VC-esque overperformance at all. it seems to me like people are trying to find excuses for Samus not doing what they expected.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 11/11/2006 8:35:53 AM | message detail
by the way, 63% had Samus beating Tifa. 76.51% had Sephiroth winning it all.
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xyzzy
Dark115 | Posted 11/11/2006 8:36:22 AM | message detail
You are hoping for Zelda to make a fool out of herself next year? Sorry, not happening.

Zelda wouldn't make a fool out of herself next year even if this year was a fluke because Twilight Princess will be out and everyone will go Zelda crazy <_<
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Current Content Score: 108/120
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transience | Posted 11/11/2006 8:36:53 AM | message detail
and if you believe Sonic has boosted, Ganondorf is actually above his VC value.
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xyzzy
red sox 777 | Posted 11/11/2006 8:39:11 AM | message detail
His VC value based on an underrated Sephiroth, you mean?
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"........!" ~Magus
charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2006 8:40:31 AM | message detail
There's too many what ifs to get any conclusion. I think a lot of our questions will be solved over the next two matches.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 8:40:47 AM | message detail
Underrated Sephiroth or not, Ganondorf wasn't worth that much on Samus.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Pianist | Posted 11/11/2006 8:58:11 AM | message detail
Underrated Sephiroth or not, Ganondorf wasn't worth that much on Samus.

SFF?

Closing my accounts at the end of the Battle Royale. Good show, Sonic!

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Every time I look at you, I am reminded how humanity has failed.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 8:59:33 AM | message detail
SFF?

Zelda's making that awful hard to believe right now. Unless Samus really did turn into crap this year.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/11/2006 8:59:42 AM | message detail
Samus certainly doesn't deserve to win this contest after her pitiful showing aganist both Tifa and Zelda, and indeed the fact that she was proven to be a leech aganist Mario last year.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:00:22 AM | message detail
Pianist, i don't remember you account betting.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
Pianist | Posted 11/11/2006 9:01:18 AM | message detail
Zelda's making that awful hard to believe right now. Unless Samus really did turn into crap this year.

You don't think Zelda could have become more popular this year? She did damn well against Snake last year, too.
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Every time I look at you, I am reminded how humanity has failed.
Pianist | Posted 11/11/2006 9:02:23 AM | message detail
Pianist, i don't remember you account betting.

My topic got deleted. >_>
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Every time I look at you, I am reminded how humanity has failed.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/11/2006 9:02:29 AM | message detail
Unadjusted Samus 2k5 is expected to get 51.48% on Zelda 2k5.

Adjusted Samus 2k5 is expected to get 59.57% on Zelda 2k5.

And if that's too low a Samus for you (lol EC), Samus 2k4 is expected to get 60.21% on Zelda 2k5.


Hm... This can mean a few things. It could mean that we overadjusted Samus. It could mean that Zelda boosted. It could mean both. It could mean that Zelda is getting some rSFF thanks to SSBM. Personally, I think the most probable answer is that we really didn't overadjust Samus very much, if at all (she was a dominating force in 2004... there was no reason to plummet considering she's still a current figure), Zelda boosted a bit (this makes sense as far as Aeris is concerned also), and she might be getting some rSFF also. I still feel pretty safe in thinking Samus will beat Sonic or Snake.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:02:58 AM | message detail
Pianist, who did you bet with.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
Pianist | Posted 11/11/2006 9:03:21 AM | message detail
And yeah, unfortunately, I think Samus taking the main bracket is gonna happen.
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Every time I look at you, I am reminded how humanity has failed.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 9:03:36 AM | message detail
Zelda becoming more popular is possible, but I'd expect Ganondorf to benefit as well and he's not going to be worth as much on Sonic as Zelda is on Samus with potential SFF. To put it another way, Samus may not do as well on Zelda as Snake did last year by the end of this, and Samus and Snake weren't supposed to even be close in strength.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/11/2006 9:05:39 AM | message detail
I think Zelda is overperforming a little because of the Female Factor.
I think the rest is down to a Samus decline, though I can't say wether that happened this year or last.

And Samus doesn't really have much room for decline is she expects to take down a Crono beater.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
therealmnm | Posted 11/11/2006 9:06:24 AM | message detail
I don't buy a VC-esque overperformance at all. it seems to me like people are trying to find excuses for Samus not doing what they expected.

Eh? I could care less about Samus not doing what I expected. I was just bringing up a concept for discussion. It's Zelda > Ganondorf indirectly through Samus that has me ogling. Maybe Zelda really is this strong... but it's freaking Zelda!
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/11/2006 9:06:37 AM | message detail
Zelda becoming more popular is possible, but I'd expect Ganondorf to benefit as well and he's not going to be worth as much on Sonic as Zelda is on Samus with potential SFF. To put it another way, Samus may not do as well on Zelda as Snake did last year by the end of this, and Samus and Snake weren't supposed to even be close in strength.

Well, it's basically impossible for us to actually equate anyone's strength in comparison to Link this year, but didn't Vincent do surprisingly well on Sonic? If Sonic actually did increase in strength, Vincent and Ganondorf did too.

And again, rSFF is possible. Granted, chances are Samus will not end up looking as strong as she should at the end of this contest. But I'm still not really scared she'll actually lose.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Tediz247 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:13:24 AM | message detail
(1) Zelda
(8) Zero

(4) Tifa
(5) Aeris

(3) Vincent
(6) Bowser

(2) Mega Man
(7) Magus

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(1) Sora
(8) Shadow the Hedgehog

(4) Knuckles the Echidna
(5) Yoshi

(3) Squall
(6) Auron

(2) Ganondorf
(7) Luigi

We really need two divisions set up something like this next year.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/11/2006 9:18:02 AM | message detail
Sure, then we can watch Gordon Freeman and Kairi win the other divisions. >_>
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caps
Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 9:18:46 AM | message detail
Hey, this performance isn't all that bad if Zelda = Ganondorf and Crono is constant. That puts Ganon at 36.78%, meaning Samus is at 40.46% on BL assuming she ends at 55%. That also puts Sonic at 40.40%, and Snake will fall inbetween the two!

At least, that's how I hope things play out >.>
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Moltar Status: 17th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Samus vs. Zelda - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (104/128)
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 9:23:53 AM | message detail
Hmm...You know what? I just thought of something. Assume that Sephiroth didn't SFF Liquid Snake in the Villains Contest, and that he was as strong then as he was in SC2K5. That would put Liquid Snake at 23.68% on BL. If you assume he has another 50/50 match with Frog, that puts him at 23.70% on BL.

Now if you adjust Samus by that, she's at 39.57% on BL. That projects a 57.40% win for Samus. Factor in a little boost for Zelda (since it seems like she and Ganon both went up), and it lines up!

And makes a Samus upset in the finals ripe for the picking!
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 9:24:53 AM | message detail
Sure, then we can watch Gordon Freeman and Kairi win the other divisions. >_>

LOL.
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I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest.
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 9:26:31 AM | message detail
Preliminary stats through the Elite Eight:

Samus Aran – 41.69%
Tifa Lockhart – 41.28%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 40.49%
Crono – 39.87%
Solid Snake – 39.50%
Vincent Valentine – 38.80%
Ganondorf – 36.79%
Auron – 36.28%
Mega Man – 35.29%
Princess Zelda – 34.98%
Bowser Koopa – 33.94%
Yoshi – 33.84%
Squall Leonhart – 33.50%
Dante Sparda – 33.47%
Sora – 32.27%
Luigi – 32.24%
Kirby – 30.74%
Riku – 30.32%
Leon Kennedy – 30.24%
Aeris Gainsborough – 30.17%
Yuna – 30.07%
Zero – 29.85%
Ryu – 29.62%
Sub-Zero – 29.29%
Master Chief – 28.74%
Princess Peach – 28.03%
Jill Valentine – 28.02%
Rikku – 25.85%
Alucard – 25.83%
Kratos – 25.40%
Chun-Li – 23.55%
Prince of Persia – 23.55%
Ryu Hayabusa – 23.30%
Gordon Freeman – 23.28%
KOS-MOS – 23.14%
Kairi – 21.57%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 21.28%
Axel – 21.27%
The Boss – 21.01%
Lara Croft – 20.94%
Claire Redfield – 20.67%
Captain Falcon – 20.60%
Ivy Valentine – 19.67%
Phoenix Wright – 19.46%
Tidus – 18.75%
Marle – 18.23%
Ada Wong – 16.86%
Celes Chere – 16.36%
Amy Rose – 16.00%
Tingle – 15.74%
CATS – 15.59%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
Kasumi – 14.72%
Terra Branford – 14.38%
Soma Cruz – 14.10%
Joanna Dark – 13.20%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 12.93%
Roll – 12.45%
Sarah Kerrigan – 11.88%
Cortana – 10.50%
Carmen Sandiego – 9.74%
Princess Daisy – 9.47%
Alyx Vance – 9.40%
Jade – 8.13%

Male Bracket Lower Half

Sonic the Hedgehog – 50.00%
Crono – 49.23%
Vincent Valentine – 47.91%
Ganondorf – 45.43%
Auron – 44.80%
Bowser – 41.90%
Luigi – 39.81%
Kirby – 37.96%
Leon Kennedy – 37.34%
Zero – 36.86%
Sub-Zero – 36.17%
Master Chief – 35.48%
Alucard – 31.90%
Prince of Persia – 29.08%
Captain Falcon – 25.44%
CATS – 19.25%
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Pianist | Posted 11/11/2006 9:28:22 AM | message detail
I bet with EC
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Every time I look at you, I am reminded how humanity has failed.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 9:30:23 AM | message detail
EC betting his account?! WHAT EVER WOULD WE HAVE DONE IF HE HAD LOST IT???
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 9:30:41 AM | message detail
Oh, and for the record, Sonic's total vote swing was 4147 yesterday. Impressive, impressive.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/11/2006 9:35:14 AM | message detail
Not enough Sub-Zero > Zero for my tastes. =/
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.