GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 425
| transience | Posted 11/10/2006 11:28:02 PM | message detail |
|
random question: what do people think of Zelda = Ganondorf? I think
that makes good sense, given that both look to be around 35% and you
can compare Samus to the male half that way. --- xyzzy |
| Kaxon | Posted 11/10/2006 11:37:37 PM | message detail |
|
I'm still pretty confident in Zelda beating Ganon head to head, but it seems like their indirect strength may be pretty equal. --- ....TCELES B HSUP |
| transcience | Posted 11/10/2006 11:41:46 PM | message detail |
|
well, Ganondorf is worth 45.43% on Sonic or 34.98% on BL assuming a
constant Sonic. if you think he's boosted, he moves into the 35's or
36's. (and Vincent up into the 38's) I have a hard time putting Yuna as
being worth much more than 29-30%, so to me they're just about equal. I
think Zelda would win head to head though. it's interesting how Zelda is going to do significantly better than Ganon on both Yuna and Samus, yet looks to be his equal. --- xyzzy |
| Kaxon | Posted 11/10/2006 11:48:53 PM | message detail |
|
Zelda actually did worse on Yuna, but Yuna looked better this year. --- ....TCELES B HSUP |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/10/2006 11:49:25 PM | message detail |
|
Score-Brackets-% Right 119----1--------0.0000000 118----4--------25.0000000 117----9--------11.1111111 116----17-------17.6470588 115----29-------3.4482759 114----44-------11.3636364 113----66-------6.0606061 112----70-------2.8571429 111----99-------9.0909091 110----124------17.7419355 109----164------18.2926829 108----232------16.3793103 107----249------16.4658635 106----323------17.3374613 105----392------15.8163265 104----395------16.9620253 103----472------22.0338983 102----431------19.7215777 101----483------18.6335404 100----475------19.1578947 99-----496------20.1612903 98-----518------19.3050193 97-----583------19.2109777 96-----603------17.4129353 95-----654------21.7125382 94-----681------17.6211454 93-----697------20.9469154 92-----724------18.2320442 91-----743------15.7469717 90-----738------17.2086721 89-----754------18.8328912 88-----752------17.9521277 87-----758------17.0184697 86-----794------16.3727960 85-----762------17.1916010 84-----836------16.5071770 83-----817------18.7270502 82-----837------15.1732378 81-----839------18.3551847 80-----841------14.8632580 79-----863------15.2954809 78-----835------17.2455090 77-----774------13.9534884 76-----885------14.0112994 75-----793------13.4930643 74-----801------13.6079900 73-----842------12.9453682 72-----821------12.6674787 71-----787------12.3252859 70-----801------12.8589263 69-----740------11.4864865 68-----740------11.3513514 67-----704------10.0852273 66-----703------10.9530583 65-----719------9.1794159 64-----657------8.9802131 63-----682------9.5307918 62-----668------9.2814371 61-----641------8.4243370 60-----571------8.5814361 59-----585------9.7435897 58-----571------6.1295972 57-----540------9.4444444 56-----529------10.5860113 55-----544------8.6397059 54-----450------6.4444444 53-----466------7.7253219 52-----418------6.6985646 51-----426------5.8685446 50-----393------7.3791349 49-----349------5.7306590 48-----376------5.8510638 47-----317------5.9936909 46-----349------6.5902579 45-----282------3.1914894 44-----281------6.4056940 43-----264------4.9242424 42-----209------4.7846890 41-----192------5.2083333 40-----194------3.0927835 39-----151------3.9735099 38-----130------6.1538462 37-----146------3.4246575 36-----93-------3.2258065 35-----98-------7.1428571 34-----73-------6.8493151 33-----56-------8.9285714 32-----49-------4.0816327 31-----60-------0.0000000 30-----48-------2.0833333 29-----32-------0.0000000 28-----36-------2.7777778 27-----20-------5.0000000 26-----23-------0.0000000 25-----17-------0.0000000 24-----19-------5.2631579 23-----11-------0.0000000 22-----10-------10.0000000 Everybody with a score of 21 or less got the match wrong. Overall prediction percentage: 13.31% Ouch again today. The top tiers are decimated by Sonic's victory. The last -1 falls and only one -2 and one -3 remains standing. The -4s do a bit better with 3 of them getting it right, but only one out of 29 -5s lives. Even going down things don't get much better. Very few groups even manage to break 20. |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/10/2006 11:49:29 PM | message detail |
| Fourty people fell off the Top 50 today.
RandomUser2, SirBormun, Gnarkillv88, Pavelax, SingToMe14,
chillaxin_homie, DarkeyeLaser, Procyon_A, yerond, Skaigear,
MystGuardian, karma_poster, SweedishPretzel, Brakmaster, X7Hell,
BubbleT, Cyclone_Striker, Villain_Mormon, CaptnNGameMastr,
psxfreak1011, Tediz247, Karma_Hunter, IkatsuiTenkuu, KarmaPolice41,
Portulock6, madmanarcher, deducting, infotech6969, TheAngryChemist,
HoodyNinja, DGZFIGHTERS, pounch, AmuroGabe, fawful1345, wesman11,
Starman0, vikings2008, WinterMoonlapse, menji7634534 and WildChocobo
did not have Sonic taking out Crono. Four people lucked out and managed to stay on the Top 50 despite getting the match wrong. Dodongo77, PeaceOut64, WaterMario222 and Former #1 FF7Cloud_Strife did not have Sonic winning but don't fall off. --- I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest. Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest! |
| transcience | Posted 11/10/2006 11:50:59 PM | message detail |
|
err.. my bad, I got mixed up there. --- xyzzy |
| Haste_2 | Posted 11/10/2006 11:59:54 PM | message detail |
|
I think I'd take Ganondorf over Zelda (barely, just like last year)... Let's see: If Samus/Zelda has similar percentage swings to Samus/Ganondorf, Samus should end at about 54%...that would mean Samus > Yuna with 60.5%. Last year, Samus > Yuna with about 68.5%. No, I'm not kidding. I think we're clearly dealing with a weaker Samus this year, so that doesn't make Zelda look as impressive as if she was facing Samus of last year. Meanwhile, I think it's pretty clear that Ganondorf boosted a bit since last year, meaning Ganondorf would do quite a bit better on Samus this year. You may think Yuna being so much closer to Samus was mostly the FFXII factor, but wasn't FFXII out for its 3rd day during Yuna vs. Chun Li? I wouldn't expect much more of that factor during Zelda/Yuna than during Yuna/Chun Li, and extrapolating through Chun Li actually suggests Zelda is slightly weaker than Bowser. Now there's error and all that, of course. --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| Haste_2 | Posted 11/11/2006 12:02:45 AM | message detail |
|
Heheh...now THAT's bracket destruction I was hungering for. Less than 3% of the 112s got Sonic/Crono right. >:) --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/11/2006 12:06:48 AM | message detail |
|
Only 4 groups broke 20% and the first to do it were the ones with 99? XD --- By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn |
| transience | Posted 11/11/2006 12:07:18 AM | message detail |
|
don't hate on the 103's! --- xyzzy |
| Kaxon | Posted 11/11/2006 12:07:45 AM | message detail |
|
Actually, extrapolating through Chun Li puts Zelda at 37.02, which is
above even overrated 2k5 Bowser (and also predicts this match quite
well if Samus is constant). --- ....TCELES B HSUP |
| Kaxon | Posted 11/11/2006 12:09:40 AM | message detail |
|
... I suppose Chun Li would be overrated just as much as Bowser, wouldn't she. Nevertheless, it puts Zelda above Bowser. --- ....TCELES B HSUP |
| transience | Posted 11/11/2006 12:12:34 AM | message detail |
|
and using a constant Crono, Ganondorf is at 36.78. --- xyzzy |
| Haste_2 | Posted 11/11/2006 12:15:03 AM | message detail |
|
Bowser beat Chun Li with 65.90%... Zelda's expected to beat her with 66.34%. My bad. --- Antivote this petition, it sucks and would be wasting bandwidth: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| transience | Posted 11/11/2006 12:16:48 AM | message detail |
|
I'm starting to think that a constant Sonic makes more sense than a
constant Crono. if you use a constant Crono, Vincent projects to beat
last year's Sonic and Ganondorf is stronger than overrated Bowser. I
don't like any of the choices this year (darn you useless female
bracket), but among the elites Sonic seems to make the most sense. --- xyzzy |
| Kaxon | Posted 11/11/2006 12:24:54 AM | message detail |
|
I definitely agree with you... it makes a lot more sense for Crono to have dropped some than for Sonic to have increased. I'm not worried about generating the final stats... once the contest's over, least squares should give us plenty of idea where people are in relation to last year. --- ....TCELES B HSUP |
| transience | Posted 11/11/2006 12:26:46 AM | message detail |
|
yeah, agreed. it's just fun to play with them. --- xyzzy |
| MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/11/2006 12:42:04 AM | message detail |
|
I'm actually suprised that Zelda is holding up so well. I expected her
to get somewhere near what Ganon got last year (41%). I guess the
female factor is boosting Zelda a couple of percent, plus maybe a Samus
drop. --- Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism. FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA. |
| transience | Posted 11/11/2006 12:45:19 AM | message detail |
|
some more thoughts: - I believe Yoshi overperformed on Snake, though I have no idea by how much. Riku > Ryu just looks crazy and Yoshi's going to outrank Bowser unless Sonic wins without it being especially close. heck, even Dante will outrank Bowser if Snake wins. - I believe Snake should be considered the favourite against Sonic, but it's anybody's match. - I think Bowser was the most disappointing character not named Mega Man this year. if Sonic is constant, Bowser just looks worse and worse. even if Crono is constant he looks bad. it almost makes me wonder if Crono's just good against Mario characters. - I think Samus is worth about 39-40% right now; in other words, about equal to Sonic. I think the three remaining characters are really close to each other and all of them could beat each other. - I think new KH2 FF characters benefited far more than ones that were in KH1. Auron, Tifa (?) and Yuna all looked great this year (jury's out on Rikku) while Aeris sucked and Squall is inconclusive. if Squall/Snake is legit though, Squall doesn't look all that great unless Snake is an absolute beast this year. this makes me think Cloud's chances against Link are nearly nil. --- xyzzy |
| MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/11/2006 3:09:05 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| Master A | Posted 11/11/2006 3:28:43 AM | message detail |
| Woohoo! 2nd place! =) |
| MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/11/2006 3:31:57 AM | message detail |
|
I wouldn't tar Bowser just yet, It could very easily turn out that
Crono boosted. I mean you don't get 58% on Bowser easily. >_< But then looking at Leon Kennedy, it might just be that Bowser is yet another pretender thanks to solid ****. --- Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism. FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/11/2006 3:35:58 AM | message detail |
|
I don't like any of the choices this year (darn you useless female
bracket), but among the elites Sonic seems to make the most sense. While it is perfectly possible that Crono could have dropped, you can't really to any sort of cap on boosts or anything. It's perfectly possible that Crono has remained constant -- he looked like before that match and saying he dropped now seems a bit strange, but it's possible -- and that Ganon and Vincent are just that strong. If Zelda boosted some this year, one would expect Ganon to do the same, along with factored in being underrated last year. Lots of possibilities, but for as much as people talk about Crono almost always being constant, I'm not a fan of dropping him just because a few characters end up high; that's trying to put a cap on boosts for whatever reason. --- "My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess |
| zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 3:42:30 AM | message detail |
|
Someone posted this question before in the past(before MM/Snake match), now i will post the same question here. Who will you pick if Vincent went head to head with Megaman next year. --- I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/11/2006 3:45:06 AM | message detail |
|
Sonic not boosting is just crazy. That would make Crono extremely weak,
not to mention Luigi's fourpack. I'd say that Sonic's floor should be
extrapolating through constant Luigi, though a constant Crono still
makes more sense to me. --- "Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda |
| MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/11/2006 3:45:36 AM | message detail |
|
Who will you pick if Vincent went head to head with Megaman next year Probably Mega Man, I am willing to give the man (or robot) some benefit of the doubt. It's not like he has never beaten a noble niner before, like Sonic or Snake. Plus there is a very real chance that MM makes it to the SSBB roster. |
| MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/11/2006 3:49:50 AM | message detail |
|
If Crono dropped then Vincent is very close to beating him, which is insane. In fact, I'd be suprised if Crono didn't boost a little as well. His performance aganist Bowser would suggest so. --- Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism. FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/11/2006 4:34:10 AM | message detail |
| I'm seeing a parallel between this year and 2003
in that in both years we received a large amount of new voters and in
both years Megaman did over 10% worse against an opponent he'd faced
before. 2002: Mega Man 49.49% 48185 Sephiroth 50.51% 49172 TOTAL VOTES 97357 2003: Sephiroth 61.18% 75979 Mega Man 38.82% 48213 TOTAL VOTES 124192 2004: Mega Man 57.19% 50116 Solid Snake 42.81% 37517 TOTAL VOTES 87633 2006: Solid Snake 55.33% 70163 Mega Man 44.67% 56648 TOTAL VOTES 126811 39178 more voters, 32646 more for Snake, 6532 more for Megaman. Almost as impressive as Sephiroth holding Megaman to 27 new votes, while he himself gaining 26807. --- "........!" ~Magus |
| MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/11/2006 4:39:51 AM | message detail |
|
A little early, but here are my Top 5 Heroes and Zeros of 2006. Heroes ~1~ Solid Snake Turned from the brink of the Noble 9 into the Top Half. Finally beat another noble niner and I predict he'll have defeated two more by the end. ~2~ Sub-Zero Performed what was IMO the biggest shock of the tournament. The other upsets were just suprises, this one had no right whatsoever to happen. He then validated his strength aganist Auron. Amazing performance. ~3~ Tifa Lockhart - Did fine throughout and then proceeded to almost cause by the far the greatest upset the character battles would have ever seen. Heck, if she had beaten Mega Man it would be the greatest Character Battle upset, beating Samus? Well that seemed like pure fiction. We'll soon find out if that was due to the pic factor/Samus decline or a legit, yet insane boost. ~4~ Sonic - Not only did he validate himself as a pure noble niner by defeating the greatest challanger, Vincent. He also won his first noble match by defeating a Crono who was as strong as ever. Hopefully he'll go on to better Snake and Samus, because in the top 5 is where he deserves to be. ~5~ Sheena - A bit like the mini star of the tournament. Tos characters have done nothing but dissapoint in the past and if Jill did something crazy like triple her, nobody would have been suprised. Instead Sheena took on a boosted Jill and almost broke 40 on her. She would then go on to look like the strongest of all Tos characters. Incredible. Zeros ~~1~~ Mega Man - His days in the noble 9 appear to be numbered. The signs were there for a bad contest and boy did he match them. It was one humiliation after another, there are no positives for MM to take out of this year and the future looks grim. ~2~ Zero - Going from nearly beating Sonic to being beaten soundly by Luigi, only for Luigi to go on to get crushed by Sonic. I wouldn't be suprised if Zero never appeared in a battle again. ~3~ Master Chief - MC was one of the stars last year, with his showing aganist Crono. This year was nothing short of a humilation. The Xbox's pride and joy getting defeated easily to a freakin Mortal Kombat character? XD ~4~ Bowser - Again, no positives from this year. He went on to validate his overperformance in the villains contest and aganist solid ****. He looked like a mere upper midcarder aganist both Leon and Crono. A full tier below what he was suspected to be at. ~5~ Aeris - Pretty confusing how Tifa and Vincent can boost around her and Aeris is left getting 45% on an upper midcarder. She actually seems to have declined since 2003. Which is strange... I also don't expect to see her back in these contests again. --- Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism. FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA. |
| zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 4:42:44 AM | message detail |
|
I wouldn't be suprised if Zero never appeared in a battle again. Hmmm............, i think it is a liitle bit harsh. --- I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest. |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 4:44:02 AM | message detail |
|
I think Tifa should be under Sonic, and kick out Sheena! Vincent
deserves it after doing 3% better on a opponent who then beat Crono. --- Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 11/11/2006 4:44:21 AM | message detail |
|
*28 >_> I agree, Snake is the slight favourite going into Snake/Sonic...but then again, MM could have just dropped right through the floor (more than we expected). ...Yeah, I'm rooting for Sonic for some semblence of bracket repair, but if Snake wins I won't be too pissed. Both are awesome. (Although Sonic vs. Mario in the royale would be brilliant. Samus goes out first, Sonic rSFFs Mario and Link SFFs Mario meaning we have Sonic > Mario! Woo!) --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz AC2K6 Score: 108/120 Today: Sonic |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 5:26:14 AM | message detail |
|
So how's stronger, Zelda or Ganondorf? If Ganondorf, then tomorrow's winner chances to win over Samus are really good. --- Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog |
| SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/11/2006 5:28:39 AM | message detail |
|
Ganondorf, but Zelda is overperforming here. --- President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards) |
| The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/11/2006 5:31:39 AM | message detail |
|
From transience random question: what do people think of Zelda = Ganondorf? I think that makes good sense, given that both look to be around 35% and you can compare Samus to the male half that way. That's what I intended to do when deciding my finals oracle pick. ~~~ The one. The only. Lady Ashe. |
| The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/11/2006 5:37:29 AM | message detail |
|
From Kaxon I definitely agree with you... it makes a lot more sense for Crono to have dropped some than for Sonic to have increased. I'm not worried about generating the final stats... once the contest's over, least squares should give us plenty of idea where people are in relation to last year. Do you mind explaining the concept of least squares to me? It isn't up there with the x-stats explanation. =/ ~~~ The one. The only. Lady Ashe. |
| zwong1 | Posted 11/11/2006 6:04:37 AM | message detail |
|
I think Zelda is slightly stronger than Ganondorf. --- I am a Singaporean and hope Snake will do well for the rest of the contest. |
| Who Cares? | Posted 11/11/2006 6:35:11 AM | message detail |
|
Nice to see Zelda actually pickup a couple updates during the night, but alas no chance at an upset! :( --- Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Failed! She should've stayed away from the summoner! *Go play Tales of the Abyss* |
| transience | Posted 11/11/2006 6:39:10 AM | message detail |
|
good! - Zelda vs. the winner of the male bracket would be pretty sucky. --- xyzzy |
| Lord_Yggdrassil | Posted 11/11/2006 6:41:47 AM | message detail |
|
Tifa boosted from KHII. You can't say AERIS did. She had a **** voice actress. --- Playing- F I N A L - F A N T A S Y - X I I | Phoenix Wright 2 |
| SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/11/2006 6:43:45 AM | message detail |
|
good! - Zelda vs. the winner of the male bracket would be pretty sucky. =( I'd have enjoyed watching Sonic break 60% in the final. And then Zelda going on to get about 2% in the Battle Royale because of Link. --- President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards) |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 6:45:00 AM | message detail |
|
Without pictures in the Battle Royale, I wonder if there would be a 1% chance of Zelda upsetting Link. <_________< Nah, voters aren't that stupid...right? --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/11/2006 6:45:50 AM | message detail |
|
uhh thats not robot samus, it must be a different character *votes for Tifa* --- President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards) |
| Who Cares? | Posted 11/11/2006 6:49:21 AM | message detail |
|
good! - Zelda vs. the winner of the male bracket would be pretty sucky. Meh, I just wanted to see one more upset for the sake of an upset. At least Samus winning will have my bracket look respectable! (Currently at 108 with Samus > Sonic as my final) --- Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Failed! She should've stayed away from the summoner! *Go play Tales of the Abyss* |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 6:49:39 AM | message detail |
|
This match is telling me that there wasn't *that* much funny business
going on in Samus/Tifa, though. I've said I take Tifa over Zelda pretty
easily since the beginning -- they were already dead even and she's had
AC and
a debut in KH2 since they fought -- and if you drop her down like a
point or so you get the comfortable win that I expected over Zelda from
the beginning. Now of course that leaves Aeris to be explained, but
with Aeris = Yuna there's no way that comes out looking good for her,
so I'll just go with them not being tied at the hip and give Tifa the
benefit of the doubt. Besides, Sonic's upset makes Vincent look damn good as well. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 6:50:34 AM | message detail |
|
Uh, dismiss the implication I made that Zelda and Tifa fought in the past. <_< --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2006 7:11:31 AM | message detail |
|
Hmm, not much has changed since last night. I think this is proof of a
Zelda boost, and that Ganon would probably get around this on Samus now
too. Link's probably going to be a beast in the BR too. Wow, Samus, Snake and Sonic all look very close in strength right now, right around 40% on BL. --- Moltar Status: 17th on the leaderboard! Go my alt! Samus vs. Zelda - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (104/128) |
| Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/11/2006 7:39:19 AM | message detail |
|
What was Samus projected to get on a constant Zelda when we take SFF
into account in Mario vs Samus and when we don't adjust Samus for SFF
against Mario? --- "An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows." |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 7:43:23 AM | message detail |
|
Unadjusted Samus 2k5 is expected to get 51.48% on Zelda 2k5. Adjusted Samus 2k5 is expected to get 59.57% on Zelda 2k5. And if that's too low a Samus for you (lol EC), Samus 2k4 is expected to get 60.21% on Zelda 2k5. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
