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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 425

wavedash101 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:37:15 PM | message detail
Metroid=/=Samus in the slightest...i'd take Samus to beat her own series easily...

>_>
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/10/2006 9:37:17 PM | message detail
Haste summed up how I feel about the BR situation.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/10/2006 9:37:18 PM | message detail
I believe LoZ whooped some ass, but the series contest was quite different.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/10/2006 9:37:44 PM | message detail
Nah, you'd have to be pretty dense to think that. This year hasn't been any less accurate for x-stats than any other years, it's just that some people seem to get jollies by wasting their time attacking math or something. But that's the case every year, in like half the matches we see ;)

I don't mock the stats because they serve a good purpose --- extrapolation for the one contest they apply to. But the only thing they can predict almost perfectly are the trends of the one contest they're attached to.

I start mocking things when people assume that years-old stats will have that same accuracy. They don't factor in everything.

~*ST*~
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creativename | Posted 11/10/2006 9:37:46 PM | message detail
www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb561-1.jpg

Thanks a lot :)

Regarding Samus/Tifa, one can barely find any shreds of evidence to support a FF12 effect, so that's pretty much dead. The main things are pic factor, and/or Tifa increasing in strength (the former being more sensible than the latter).
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/10/2006 9:38:13 PM | message detail
From Blade Of Evils Bane
There is no FFXII factor. Aeris and Yuna didn't do anywhere near enough for that to of been the reason for Samus/Tifa.

Yuna did way better than expected, and Aeris was demolished before 3/4 of the 1.5 million games sold that week were actually picked up and played.

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
wavedash101 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:38:14 PM | message detail
BT...Sephy is way closer to Cloud then he is to Mario...as show last year...

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HaRRicH | Posted 11/10/2006 9:39:30 PM | message detail
Wow, let's not jump to conclusions here -- I agree, it's not a fair comparison, but considering how I think SSB/M are both big for them and that I think the SSB/M fanbase would favor Zelda over Samus...not to mention that SSB/M's fanbase seems to really shine in after-school hours (though tomorrow has no school)...I wanted something else to compare with since I knew that wouldn't be fair enough.

So, fine, how about Samus/Ganon?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/10/2006 9:39:46 PM | message detail
Then take one of the - between Cloud and Sephiroth and put it between Cloud and LInk

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/10/2006 9:40:18 PM | message detail
I hope this isn't foreshadowing Cloud beating Link. <_<
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creativename | Posted 11/10/2006 9:42:38 PM | message detail
But the only thing they can predict almost perfectly are the trends of the one contest they're attached to.

So...? It's pretty obvious that anyone mocking the stats is lamely tilting at windmills. Not one person thinks it's a perfect technique, except for people who like to think others do so they have some sorry excuse to throw negativity around. It's very pointless.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/10/2006 9:42:47 PM | message detail
Wow, let's not jump to conclusions here -- I agree, it's not a fair comparison, but considering how I think SSB/M are both big for them and that I think the SSB/M fanbase would favor Zelda over Samus...not to mention that SSB/M's fanbase seems to really shine in after-school hours (though tomorrow has no school)...I wanted something else to compare with since I knew that wouldn't be fair enough.

You're completely wrong there. Zelda's enough to weaken Sheik's advantage over Samus in SSBM, and SSB is more than enough to counteract any advantage at all over Samus.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Janus5000 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:43:14 PM | message detail
The main things are pic factor, and/or Tifa increasing in strength (the former being more sensible than the latter).

With Advent Children and Kingdom Hearts II, I'd give Tifa plenty of room to boost - not necessarily enough to go 50/50 with Samus and beat Zelda comfortably, but it would easily be noticeable. Not sure if it's more than Zero **** Samus or not, though.

And TuRtLe, I don't see how Yuna did much better than expected - she looked about as strong as Aeris and did about as well against a common opponent. >.>
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Draco1214 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:43:25 PM | message detail
I'd say the noble nine is placed like this:

Link
Cloud Strife
Sephiroth

Mario
Samus Aran
Solid Snake
Sonic the Hedgehog
Crono

Mega Man

Snake/Sonic is 50/50 for me. Could go either way, so I just put Snake higher out of sheer fanboyism <_<
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/10/2006 9:44:29 PM | message detail
Samus was well-liked in SSB and SSBM, yeah, but Zelda's favorite-status in SSBM by both regular gamers and experts is enough for me to feel like she does no worse than go even with Samus in the SSB/M fanbase.
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creativename | Posted 11/10/2006 9:44:45 PM | message detail
With Advent Children and Kingdom Hearts II, I'd give Tifa plenty of room to boost - not necessarily enough to go 50/50 with Samus and beat Zelda comfortably, but it would easily be noticeable.

I should've said that it's more sensible to me. I think it was mostly the pic, but if someone thinks it was Tifa boosting I'm not going to debate it.
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MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/10/2006 9:45:31 PM | message detail
So, fine, how about Samus/Ganon?

Ganon took Samus from 61% to 59%

hope this isn't foreshadowing Cloud beating Link. <_<

I have no idea how you can even relate the two.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
Janus5000 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:45:32 PM | message detail
I'd say the Noble Nine looks something like this:

Link
Cloud

Sephiroth


Mario
Samus/Sonic/Snake
Crono

Blue Bummer
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/10/2006 9:45:35 PM | message detail
And TuRtLe, I don't see how Yuna did much better than expected - she looked about as strong as Aeris and did about as well against a common opponent. >.>

Exactly!

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/10/2006 9:46:23 PM | message detail
And we'll see who's laughing when Snake scores 55% on Sonic

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/10/2006 9:47:05 PM | message detail
I have no idea how you can even relate the two.

Tifa performing as she did on Samus compared to Zelda, and Vincent beating Ganondorf. I'm expecting(and praying!) to be wrong, but I'm still a little paranoid. ;p
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Janus5000 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:47:07 PM | message detail
I thought you were just referring to the match with Zelda.

I suppose FFXII would've been out before her match with Chun-Li, though. Still, she looked quite beastly in taking out worthless fodder... then again, so did Max Payne. <.<
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MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/10/2006 9:49:27 PM | message detail
Tifa performing as she did on Samus compared to Zelda, and Vincent beating Ganondorf. I'm expecting(and praying!) to be wrong, but I'm still a little paranoid. ;p

Tifa had a handicap that Zelda doesn't. She may have boosted, but there's no way she's up to that level, it's not even believable. And Vincent beating Ganondorf was primarily because of his new game, which makes sense to him to boost from. Cloud can boost from KH2, sure, but it won't be all that big and it's still just one day before Twilight Princess.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
wavedash101 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:50:19 PM | message detail
Link
Cloud

Sephy


Mario

Samus/Snake/Sonic
Crono

Mega Man

That how I think the NN is as of now...Samus/Snake/Sonic will be decided soon though, then we should get a some what accurate tier...

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TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/10/2006 9:54:38 PM | message detail
From MyWorldIsZelda Posted 11/11/2006 12:49:27 AM #223
Tifa had a handicap that Zelda doesn't. She may have boosted, but there's no way she's up to that level, it's not even believable. And Vincent beating Ganondorf was primarily because of his new game, which makes sense to him to boost from. Cloud can boost from KH2, sure, but it won't be all that big and it's still just one day before Twilight Princess.

True as all of that is, I'd feel a lot better if the contest had a one day delay somewhere here... or if Sephiroth upsets Cloud in the Battle Royale.:=P

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Janus5000 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:56:41 PM | message detail
It'd be really awesome if Sephiroth upset both Cloud and Link.

...Or at least as awesome as a Sephiroth upset can be.
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/10/2006 9:58:28 PM | message detail
Pshht! The only reason I'm cheering for Sephy to make it to the finals is that he'll make an easier meal for Link, baby!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/10/2006 9:59:05 PM | message detail
Personally, I like to think that Zelda/Aeris gives us a better idea what Link/Cloud will look like than anything else. <3
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/10/2006 9:59:53 PM | message detail
A result like that in Link's favor would be sex.
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creativename | Posted 11/10/2006 9:59:53 PM | message detail
Another thing about the Battle Royale though is that any stuffing/rally attempts would be highly leveraged. It would take a much smaller scale effort to actually alter the round-by-round results.

Also Ceej seems to be relying almost entirely on his vote filters now, so he probably won't do any sort of analysis like he did with Kefka/Vercetti.

The BR should be fun, but I hope we never see it again. Seeing multiple one-on-one matches between these sorts of heavyweights would be even more fun.
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Janus5000 | Posted 11/10/2006 10:00:14 PM | message detail
Easier, maybe, but easy enough for Link?

...Probably. It'd still be awesome.
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Kaxon | Posted 11/10/2006 10:01:38 PM | message detail
Pshht! The only reason I'm cheering for Sephy to make it to the finals is that he'll make an easier meal for Link, baby!

*shakes head*

I honestly don't understand how anyone can root for an easy Link victory after years of Link dominance. If you love Link that much fine, but at least hope for an exciting match.
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/10/2006 10:02:59 PM | message detail
Isn't Sephiroth over Cloud exciting enough for you? ;)
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Squall: ...Flower.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/10/2006 10:03:35 PM | message detail
I find the idea of Link beating either of them with over 55% pretty damn exciting!


...But now I'm off to sleep with a tough day ahead of tomorrow!

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/10/2006 10:03:38 PM | message detail
I'm rooting for Mario myself.
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Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/10/2006 10:06:15 PM | message detail
"I honestly don't understand how anyone can root for an easy Link victory after years of Link dominance. If you love Link that much fine, but at least hope for an exciting match."


I'll get tired of seeing Link win when someone gets up to his level that isn't FF7. Cloud doesn't deserve it and the 2003 final sucked ass. >_>

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cade | Posted 11/10/2006 10:07:24 PM | message detail
The casuals haven't taken over yet, a B8er is still #1 ;)

I think Snake is looking good to win the overall bracket this year and finish 4th in the championship brawl thanks to Samus and Link leeching votes from Mario.
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/10/2006 10:08:24 PM | message detail
Mario is not going out before Samus.
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Squall: ...Flower.
Big Bob | Posted 11/10/2006 10:09:35 PM | message detail
Sonic just might be the most immune to SFF in that poll. While Link is certainly the strongest Nintendo, Mario WILL be sucking a portion of his votes away, and Cloud/Sephy will be dividing votes as well. If Snake got in he could potentially be SFF'd by the FFVII boys.

Go Sonic..
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Super Luigi | Posted 11/10/2006 10:09:55 PM | message detail
This match is over with. I knew it wouldn't be that close.
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Chinballz | Posted 11/10/2006 10:15:52 PM | message detail
I'd say it's now official that Tifa is way more popular than Aeris. Unless Samus being suitless really did weaken her that much.

And that the Nine wont be broken until Vincent or Tifa get ahold of Mega Man.
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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/10/2006 10:16:05 PM | message detail
MM still > Sonic, you'll all see when Snake owns him by 56+.....

kidding
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Haste_2 | Posted 11/10/2006 10:21:50 PM | message detail
I say Samus underperformed heavily on Tifa, AND Tifa is way more popular than Aeris. ;)

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hacknslash001 | Posted 11/10/2006 10:28:36 PM | message detail
damn...when i first made my bracket, i had snake>sonic in the finals.

moral of the post: dont listen to board 8
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/10/2006 10:31:39 PM | message detail
From Haste_2
I say Samus underperformed heavily on Tifa, AND Tifa is way more popular than Aeris. ;)

I'd rather say Tifa performed to ungodly proportions against Samus and is STILL way more popular than Aeris

TuRtLe
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Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
transience | Posted 11/10/2006 10:55:55 PM | message detail
looks like Samus = Sonic, Crono, etc - I've been pretty firm in placing Zelda at 35%, and if there's no SFF that's about where Samus will end up. I'm thinking she'll be the underdog on the board against the male champion, and maybe rightly so.

I'm in awe of that leaderboard. I've never seen something so ****ed up in my life and we haven't even hit the BR yet. something really funky is going to happen there and no one knows what, so that thing could have some -15's or something on it by the end of the contest. for this contest being "extremely predictable", I'd say everyone is getting served.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/10/2006 10:58:05 PM | message detail
-15's....how about -35s?

>____________>
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creativename | Posted 11/10/2006 11:04:23 PM | message detail
Seeing Crono lose was almost worth it just for this.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=31678949

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Gaddswell | Posted 11/10/2006 11:07:35 PM | message detail
Seeing Crono lose was almost worth it just for this.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=31678949


I know. Some of these high grounds have some real good stuff in them.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/10/2006 11:18:43 PM | message detail
MC/Sub-Zero is awesome.
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