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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 425

HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/10/2006 9:15:14 PM | message detail
See now thats what I'm talkin bout. Those new pics are sexy.
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
JaKyL25 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:16:00 PM | message detail
Yeah, each match in the battle royale is worth 8 points.

D'oh!

I'm reasonably sure I had Snake eliminated first, then Samus, then Mario, then Sephiroth, then Cloud. There's no way to see our battle royale picks for now though, is there?
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/10/2006 9:16:17 PM | message detail
Honestly, how rude. Stupid Tifa gets to have the match of her life, while Zelda is stuck here in pink, flowery dresses, against a giant, energy-blasting robot. Pfft.
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caps
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/10/2006 9:16:28 PM | message detail
Who won that update? Looked nothing more than a stall to me.
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/10/2006 9:17:27 PM | message detail

I'm reasonably sure I had Snake eliminated first, then Samus, then Mario, then Sephiroth, then Cloud. There's no way to see our battle royale picks for now though, is there?


Right now you can't see them. I'm guessing we'll be able to once the Battle Royale starts.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/10/2006 9:17:27 PM | message detail
Samus took it with 55.29%. This probably won't end up close vote-wise, but it will percentage-wise.

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/10/2006 9:17:42 PM | message detail
Samus increased by more than 100 votes...

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/10/2006 9:18:14 PM | message detail
At this exact same time, Samus had a 373 vote lead on Tifa.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/10/2006 9:18:48 PM | message detail
Sorry EC, since day 1 percentages have always thrown me off on who wins updates.
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Gaddswell | Posted 11/10/2006 9:23:08 PM | message detail
Samus lead of 466 now.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
JaKyL25 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:23:35 PM | message detail
I want to say I'd be in first right now if I had done more Contest Stats and Discussion research before making my picks. I lost my only four points because of Sub-Zero, Ganondorf, Phoenix Wright, and Amy freaking Rose.

On the other hand, with more CS&D research, I might not have picked Sonic over Crono.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/10/2006 9:24:17 PM | message detail
...I hope Link and Mario SFF Samus into oblivion come the Battle Royale.
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/10/2006 9:24:32 PM | message detail
Being here wouldn't have helped you with SZ and Ganon.

Although taking PW and Amy was pretty dum

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/10/2006 9:24:45 PM | message detail
I want to say I'd be in first right now if I had done more Contest Stats and Discussion research before making my picks. I lost my only four points because of Sub-Zero, Ganondorf, Phoenix Wright, and Amy freaking Rose.

As a casual gamer... the only one I can say was bad was PW.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/10/2006 9:24:52 PM | message detail
To be fair, the Sub-Zero, Ganon, and even PW losses I can understand....but Amy Rose?! Come on man.
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/10/2006 9:25:04 PM | message detail
I don't know why I said casual gamer.. but yeah.
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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/10/2006 9:26:03 PM | message detail
I want to say I'd be in first right now if I had done more Contest Stats and Discussion research before making my picks. I lost my only four points because of Sub-Zero, Ganondorf, Phoenix Wright, and Amy freaking Rose.

On the other hand, with more CS&D research, I might not have picked Sonic over Crono.


You still would have picked Master Chief and Ganondorf, and those two matches will end up not mattering since if you lose, it'll be by more than two.

That is, unless Eternal Ark has the exact same thing as you for the rest of the bracket.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/10/2006 9:26:05 PM | message detail
Okay... I'm going to bed now, long ass day tomorrow probably, though I'm horribly disappointed in this outcome.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
shadow8021 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:26:35 PM | message detail
After the shakeup we've had with the NN, where do they rank now?

I'd say...

Link
Cloud
Sephiroth
Mario
Samus
Sonic
Snake
Crono
Mega Man
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Character Battle Score: 108/128
Today's Pick: Samus Aran
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/10/2006 9:26:59 PM | message detail
When I get back here tomorrow night, it would be fantastic to return to Zelda having made an amazing comeback. She'll have to get on that while I'm gone.

But before I go -- How about that 61%, EC?!

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:27:17 PM | message detail
I don't see any way Snake goes out before Samus in the BR. He or Sonic should both have a much easier time avoiding SFF than Samus behind Link/Mario. In fact, I could see either of them doing quite well, once Link/Mario and Cloud/Seph are forced the split the vote between each other.

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thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator
thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/10/2006 9:27:56 PM | message detail
Link
Cloud
Sephiroth
Mario
Samus
Sonic
Snake
Crono
Mega Man


You think Snake falls between Sonic and Crono?

I say switch Crono and Snake and it's perfect.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Janus5000 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:28:22 PM | message detail
...I really want to see the prediction % when/if Sonic beats Snake.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/10/2006 9:28:47 PM | message detail
Link
Cloud
Sephiroth
Mario
Sonic
Samus
Snake
Crono
Mega Man

Sonic shall get his revenge on Samus this year!
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Demyx > Axel
Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Phoenix Wright 2: Justice For All
JaKyL25 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:29:17 PM | message detail
You still would have picked Master Chief and Ganondorf, and those two matches will end up not mattering since if you lose, it'll be by more than two.

I know in the long run it doesn't matter, I just would like to have a screencap of myself in first place.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
BDawg | Posted 11/10/2006 9:29:20 PM | message detail
This match isn't exactly restoring that great confidence that Samus>male bracket. But hey I have no idea what the trends on this match will be.
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Should I start running now?
creativename | Posted 11/10/2006 9:29:30 PM | message detail
If Sonic wins the bracket, we should have an even lower %age than Cloud 2K3. Of course, he probably won't, but it would be interesting to see.


Personally, I just think this is the nail in the concept of true transitivity's coffin.

Not true, transitivity doesn't apply across years, only within years. Or maybe you're confusing it with linearity, which is a common mistake around here.


A lot of you may feel inclined to believe that this year proves that the X-Stats are useless or that voters are inherently unpredictable and thus the contest isn't even worth analyzing.

Nah, you'd have to be pretty dense to think that. This year hasn't been any less accurate for x-stats than any other years, it's just that some people seem to get jollies by wasting their time attacking math or something. But that's the case every year, in like half the matches we see ;)

The concept of direct past results not being wholly accurate has been exemplified by this contest (but this was also the case in 2K3, to an even greater extent), but that isn't extrapolation. In Sonic vs. Crono for instance Sonic was a bigger dog than he deserved to be extrapolation wise, because people put a lot of faith in past results, and Sonic had an undeserved reputation for losing close matches (which mathematically doesn't make sense, unless there are cheaters). That's mainly psychology and superstition. Likewise with Snake; going by extrapolation vs. past result you could see his victory coming, but most of us (including myself) took a while to adjust to that, and even when Snake was the favorite it wasn't by the degree that this year's result implied, because we had 2 direct matches to go by.


For this match, the question is if there will be any significant night/day trends. I myself wouldn't expect there to be, but maybe.
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shadow8021 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:29:41 PM | message detail
"Sonic shall get his revenge on Samus this year!"

I'd love to see it happen.
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Character Battle Score: 108/128
Today's Pick: Samus Aran
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/10/2006 9:30:39 PM | message detail

Not true, transitivity doesn't apply across years, only within years. Or maybe you're confusing it with linearity, which is a common mistake around here.


Probably.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/10/2006 9:30:51 PM | message detail
WTF!? That update destroyed Zelda.
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Demyx > Axel
Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Phoenix Wright 2: Justice For All
Janus5000 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:30:51 PM | message detail
...I like that update.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/10/2006 9:31:07 PM | message detail
...good lord, I'm going to sleep after that one.
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Janus5000 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:31:34 PM | message detail
Oh, 59.63%. Better than I thought! <3
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Lady Ashe | Posted 11/10/2006 9:31:53 PM | message detail
This match will parallel Sonic/Crono. Zelda being Sonic, naturally.
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
triviaman | Posted 11/10/2006 9:32:18 PM | message detail
well, good. at least Samus isn't going to crap out on this match like she did against Tifa. i really hope she keeps building up her percent, though.

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This is cyko posting from a friend's house!!!
>_>
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/10/2006 9:32:31 PM | message detail
Stupid whore Tifa.
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caps
creativename | Posted 11/10/2006 9:32:43 PM | message detail
Anybody know the direct addresses of the pics?
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www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
Master Moltar | Posted 11/10/2006 9:32:59 PM | message detail
More of that last update, please!
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Moltar Status: 17th on the leaderboard! Go my alt!
Samus vs. Zelda - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (104/128)
Gaddswell | Posted 11/10/2006 9:33:15 PM | message detail
So, ZSS or FFXII factor? What resulted in Tifa going 50-50 with Samus?
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Janus5000 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:33:38 PM | message detail
Both.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Lady Ashe | Posted 11/10/2006 9:33:52 PM | message detail
From Gaddswell
So, ZSS or FFXII factor? What resulted in Tifa going 50-50 with Samus?

Being fodder, as will become apparent when Zelda destroys her in the day.
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/10/2006 9:33:57 PM | message detail
Anybody know the direct addresses of the pics?

www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb561-1.jpg
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Haste_2 | Posted 11/10/2006 9:34:12 PM | message detail
Liquid Snake suffered...maybe 3% worth of SFF against Sephiroth in Sp2K5, and possibly less than that...possibly none at all, depending on how strong you think Sephiroth actually was in Sp2K5 (use SC2K5 Snake and you see Liquid's very close to Frog 2K5). I don't think Snake would suffer any SFF at all against Cloud or Sephiroth in a 1-on-1 match, let alone in the Battle Royale.

I figure Samus may have a slight chance at beating out Sonic, if Sonic's iconic status hurts him a lot in this sort of situation...(i.e. he's strong in a normal contest environment because he's an icon and generally liked, not because he's a common favorite), though Sonic should definitely be favored. (Mario could have a similar problem, but then again, it's NintendoFAQs). If Snake's in the BR, though, I'd personally give Samus almost zero chance not getting last place.

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AmazingKirby | Posted 11/10/2006 9:34:15 PM | message detail
Just ZSS. FFXII had a negative effect on Square characters.
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caps
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/10/2006 9:34:43 PM | message detail
There is no FFXII factor. Aeris and Yuna didn't do anywhere near enough for that to of been the reason for Samus/Tifa.

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Can't think of a good sig.
Gaddswell | Posted 11/10/2006 9:34:45 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb561
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb561-2.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb561-3.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb561-4.jpg
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/10/2006 9:35:08 PM | message detail
FFXII had a negative effect on Square characters.

Oro?
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"I have no fear of losing my life - if I have to save a koala or a crocodile or a kangaroo or a snake, mate, I will save it. " -Steve Irwin
HaRRicH | Posted 11/10/2006 9:35:45 PM | message detail
How did the day-votego in LoZ/Metroid in the Series Contest?
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/10/2006 9:37:06 PM | message detail
How did the day-votego in LoZ/Metroid in the Series Contest?

That's not exactly a fair comparison. >>;
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/10/2006 9:37:08 PM | message detail
My NN ranking:

Link
Cloud
-
-
Sephiroth
-
Mario
Snake
Samus
-
Sonic
Crono
Mega Man

TuRtLe
~~~
Pretty much out of the contest
lol x-stats