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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 425

LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 12:30:15 PM | message detail
Hmmm...Some Sonic/Snake "What if?" scenarios for tomorrow's match:

If Bowser = Yoshi, Sonic wins with 51.10%. Anything more, Bowser > Yoshi

If Yoshi = Luigi, Sonic wins with 53.54%. Anything more, Luigi > Yoshi

For the record, Bowser beats Luigi with 52.49% this year.

If Vincent = Mega Man, Solid Snake wins with 53.38%. Anything more, Mega Man > Vincent

If Ganondorf = Mega Man, Solid Snake wins with 50.84%. Anything more, Mega Man > Ganondorf

If Auron = Mega Man, Solid Snake wins with 50.15%. Anything more, Mega Man > Auron

If Sora = Bowser, Solid Snake wins with 51.25%. Anything more, Sora > Bowser

If Luigi = Sora, Sonic wins with 51.23%. Anything more, Luigi > Sora

If Bowser = Dante, Sonic wins with 50.55%. Anything more, Bowser > Dante

If Kirby = Dante, Sonic wins with 55.20%. Anything more, Kirby > Dante

If Ryu = Kirby, Solid Snake wins with 50.62%. Anything more, Ryu > Kirby

If Ryu = Leon Kennedy, Sonic wins with 50.20%. Anything more, Leon > Ryu

If Zero = Ryu, Sonic wins with 50.84%. Anything more, Zero > Ryu

If Ryu = Sub-Zero, Sonic wins with 51.76%. Anything more, Sub-Zero > Ryu

If Alucard = Kratos, Sonic wins with 50.40%. Anything more, Alucard > Kratos

If Riku = Kirby, Sonic wins with 50.55%. Anything more, Kirby > Riku
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/11/2006 12:37:59 PM | message detail
Before the contest started, pretty much everyone believed that Zelda would do better on Samus than Ganondorf did, either because she'd be better at resisting SFF or because she'd get rSFF on Samus. Why have so many people seemingly changed their minds?
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 12:39:45 PM | message detail
Before the contest started, pretty much everyone believed that Zelda would do better on Samus than Ganondorf did,

"Pretty much everyone?" I sure as hell didn't.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Big Bob | Posted 11/11/2006 12:40:34 PM | message detail
Wow, a lot of those scenarios are likely, yet favor either character.

I think the biggest thing we'll learn from this match is how much Mega Man dropped. Sonic has boosted and Snake has boosted too. But has Crono dropped or stayed constant? That's hard to tell.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 12:41:24 PM | message detail
...I didn't believe Zelda would do better. There were very few people throwing around this crazy rSFF stuff, and not everyone was convinced that Samus had SFF'd Ganon at all. I was expecting Zelda to do about the same as Ganondorf, pre-contest.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 12:43:09 PM | message detail
...in other words, certain people being vocal about Zelda doing well on Samus (grrr HM) doesn't mean that was the consensus.
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Criona | Posted 11/11/2006 12:44:27 PM | message detail
You know the poll updater?
How is that going to work during the battle royale, when there'll be 6 characters?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/11/2006 12:51:08 PM | message detail
Nice list, Leon. I'd just like to see one more: what does Mega Man and Zero remaining proportional (58.64% for MM) predict in Snake vs. Sonic?

...in other words, certain people being vocal about Zelda doing well on Samus (grrr HM) doesn't mean that was the consensus.

Hmm, guess I'm just misremembering then. Still, I thought there were a lot of people who thought that...some were suggesting something about Zelda's name being a factor, even.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 12:51:48 PM | message detail
IN FODDER MATCHES DAMMIT
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/11/2006 12:57:29 PM | message detail
Nah, it was specifically suggested as an SFF factor against Samus...something about weakness to Nintendo.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 12:58:17 PM | message detail
Nice list, Leon. I'd just like to see one more: what does Mega Man and Zero remaining proportional (58.64% for MM) predict in Snake vs. Sonic?

50/50

...I'm not kidding.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 12:59:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, Mega Man and Zero maintaining their proportion makes Snake and Sonic dead even with one another.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 1:02:05 PM | message detail
If Ryu = Sub-Zero, Sonic wins with 51.76%. Anything more, Sub-Zero > Ryu

LOL X-stats! Sonic can win with 70% tomorrow and I still won't accept this >_>
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/11/2006 1:03:23 PM | message detail
Awesome. Another 50/50 match at this level would be great.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 1:06:38 PM | message detail
Honestly, if I had to favor anyone right now, it'd probably be Snake. He's just looked flatout dominant in every match he's been in (granted, if they had switched places in the bracket, we might be saying the same thing about Sonic, though the match with Squall is iffy), and 55%+ on Mega Man is no joke.

Plus, exactly how many characters can be above Mega Man anyway?!
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 1:07:26 PM | message detail
Well, if we were to listen to Smurf...
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LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 1:08:21 PM | message detail
Hey, even Smurf favors Snake at this point!
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/11/2006 1:08:25 PM | message detail
At least 23.
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 1:09:10 PM | message detail
I think a better question is how many characters can be over Sora? 46.72% on Megaman seems really strong to me.
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 1:11:14 PM | message detail
Well, you're already guaranteed to have Snake, Mega Man (duh), Yoshi, Squall, and Dante ahead of Sora just from that half of the bracket. If Sonic and Snake are equal, then you get Crono, Vincent, Ganondorf, Auron, and Bowser.

So...Sora's looking at around 17th in the final stats (including Clinkerothio, beats me how we're actually going to include them in these stats though).
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/11/2006 1:12:13 PM | message detail
We can't. There's no point even trying to deduce when there's multiple characters in there.
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/11/2006 1:20:18 PM | message detail
Plus, exactly how many characters can be above Mega Man anyway?!

Looking at prediction percentages, most people don't see Mega Man being weak as any sort of aberration.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2006 1:21:31 PM | message detail
But that's EVERY year. Why would all those people suddenly start being right all of a sudden? <<
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Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 1:22:27 PM | message detail
Heck, barely 50% thought Sonic could beat Vincent or Ganondorf.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
wavedash101 | Posted 11/11/2006 1:24:38 PM | message detail
But that's EVERY year. Why would all those people suddenly start being right all of a sudden? <<

Because people are irrational creatures...you cant take anything they do as static and fit it into a nice, neat pattern...and thats where over reliance on the x-stats fails...

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__Smurf__ | Posted 11/11/2006 1:26:01 PM | message detail
*prepares to sleep*

Busy day tomorrow. n_n
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
Haste_2 | Posted 11/11/2006 2:22:57 PM | message detail
Ah, Samus hasn't lost as much day vote on Zelda as on Ganondorf...so she'll end at about 55%. Not bad, I suppose...at least good enough to give her a shot at the championship. I still say she's at a bit of a disadvantage, especially since I'm betting one of either Sonic or Solid Snake is stronger than Crono of last year.

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Haste_2 | Posted 11/11/2006 2:27:11 PM | message detail
If Snake vs. Squall is legit, Snake probably has this contest won, and I think that would basically prove that Yoshi overperformed a decent amount on Snake.

If Snake vs. Yoshi is legit, then I have a difficult time seeing him beat Sonic, since Sonic beat Crono, who beat Bowser worse than Snake beat Yoshi. Yoshi's not stronger than Bowser...is he?

Or maybe both matches are slightly off, or Dante = Squall is actually correct...

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LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 2:33:18 PM | message detail
Yoshi's not stronger than Bowser...is he?

Well, Bowser wasn't very impressive this year, even less so when you see Crono losing to Sonic.

Hmmm...Riku vs. Leon Kennedy: Who do you take?
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
dethfdddddh | Posted 11/11/2006 2:34:30 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/11/2006 2:35:53 PM | message detail
Yoshi did beat Dante. too. That's gotta be worth something
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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/11/2006 2:48:00 PM | message detail
Well, this match could finally settle once and for all the problem of Luigi and Yoshi being tied together through that SFF match....then again maybe not as Yoshi could've overperformed quite a bit on Snake.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 2:53:05 PM | message detail
Sonic would have to win pretty handily for Luigi = Yoshi. Yoshi/Bowser is uncertain, but if Bowser is stronger, Sonic wins.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/11/2006 3:17:29 PM | message detail
Some comments!

-- Very nice show from Zelda today! I was hoping that she would be able to bring it down to about 52 or 53% during the day, but not allowing Samus to make up a lot of ground is good enough. It also nails my pre-contest prediction that Zelda would get 45%+ on Samus! She should be an even bigger beast next year with Twilight Princess to help her.

-- It's also nice to see that the gap between the near-elites and the Noble Nine is practically non-existent. While they have not yet lost, they're getting challenged more and more each year. A lot of them managed to put up 45%+ on quite a few of the Noble Nine, and others would either win or get close. That makes for a lot of good in future match-ups after we see some big games come out.

-- I heard some comments about Ganondorf not boosting. Today's match, unless Zelda is just resisting SFF better, is pretty solid proof that Samus wasn't exactly a big SFF beast last year. Ganondorf, through a constant Crono (which makes sense), increases a little over 3% from last year. Given that Zelda definitely looks better this year (45% on Snake in 2005 and 45% on Samus in 2006? Pretty clear increase there, I think) it makes sense that there would be an across the table Zelda boost -- no, Turtle, not a Nintendo Boost !!

-- The whole Samus/Tifa thing is pretty interesting after seeing this match. I don't think we're seeing a VC-esque overperformance -- though doesn't Ganon end up near, or at least around, his VC number this year -- in the female half. I suspect that Tifa may have been overrated a couple of points due to the picture, but it doesn't appear to be nearly as severe as originally thought. I still wouldn't really be certain on a Zelda/Tifa match-up today (next year is a different matter though).

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 3:20:11 PM | message detail
It also nails my pre-contest prediction that Zelda would get 45%+ on Samus!

She's still below 45%, buddy.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/11/2006 3:22:03 PM | message detail
Pfft! We'll all remember this as a 55/45 affair!

Zelda's still got some time to get there too!!

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"My ambition is to create the coolest Link that's ever existed." -- Keisuke Nishimori, Twilight Princess
Pianist | Posted 11/11/2006 3:27:24 PM | message detail
What the hell is a VC overperformance? >_>
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LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 3:30:14 PM | message detail
Villains Contest overperformance (Bowser/Sephy and Ganon/Sephy).
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Big Bob | Posted 11/11/2006 3:35:41 PM | message detail
The female bracket was absolutely pathetic. Looking back, I only got a single match wrong (and that was Amy > KOS-MOS, which isn't that bad considering what Sonic pulled off yesterday). There were no upsets, and the only good matches were Samus/Tifa and Jill/Peach. Even worse is that half the contestants were new, yet it was STILL more predictable than the male bracket, which is 80% returning combatants.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
NoDiceCurt | Posted 11/11/2006 3:38:37 PM | message detail
I think the "predictability" of the Male bracket was what ended up making it unpredictable.

Without knowing at all about the previous contests...no one in their right minds would have picked Crono over Sonic. Snake/Megaman, in my opinion, is the same way. I've hardly heard of a Mega Man game recently but I hear about MGS all the time.

I think that without the x-stats and knowledge of previous contests...the male bracket would have been easier to predict.
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Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be.
-The biggest Sonic fan ever.-
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 3:43:08 PM | message detail
Without knowing at all about the previous contests...no one in their right minds would have picked Crono over Sonic.

I gambled on Sonic > Crono. It isn't THAT farfetched.
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
NoDiceCurt | Posted 11/11/2006 3:48:24 PM | message detail
I think you missed what I said.

If you didn't know about the contest. You never would have even thought Crono had a chance. You have a one hit wonder versus a gaming Icon. Theoretically, without any bias coming into the contest; unless Mario and Sonic were in the same sides of the bracket they should have been picked for the finals and depending on your personal views one of them would be the tournament champion.
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Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be.
-The biggest Sonic fan ever.-
LeonhartForever | Posted 11/11/2006 3:51:03 PM | message detail
Well, apparently only 13.31% know nothing about the contests then!!
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"A strong man doesn't need to read the future. He makes his own." - Solid Snake
"I'll show you what true speed really is!" - Sonic
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 3:54:48 PM | message detail
I agree with NoDiceCurt.

Solid Snake VS Sonic should be an obvious final if you don't know anyting about this contest or the site. Hell then you should have picked Bowser over Crono.
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
XIII_rocks | Posted 11/11/2006 4:00:44 PM | message detail
Reading Big Bob's post, it looks as if my female bracket is perfect.

What the hell is that? Jesus...

Then again, we've had some good matches out of the female bracket - it wasn't as good as the male, but it was alright for me. (I'm easily pleased) >_>

For me, the female side had 4 good matches: Jill/Peach, Claire/Kairi, Lara/Chun-Li (only because that % decrease was immense, and because it validated my claims), and Samus/Tifa. Then there's a whole bunch of little matches that gave me immense personal satisfaction, like Lara destroying Alyx and Boss CQCing Celes into the ground, or Nidoran doing decently on Samus.

It wasn't SO bad; yes, it was fodderific, but we got a fair amount of goodness out of it.

The male side is obviously better, though; MC/Sub, the whole Luigi/Prince/Kirby/Zero fourpack (even though Luigi took it with ease, it was still quite the board upset), Yoshi/Dante, Gordon Freeman finally winning, then subsequently failing to break 40% for the first time, Vincent/Ganon...and of course, the two formerly bottom-ranked NNers taking their revenge. One was a superb 12%+ shift within two years, and the other was the biggest successful comeback/vote swing-type thing in contest history(?)

And we're all set up for a great final, tomorrow, as well.

So yes, the male was better. But no, the female was not totally awful. This is looking like the best contest I've ever been a part of on GameFAQs - 2k4, Villains and Series fail in comparison, and while I immensely enjoyed 2005, it's not quite matching the standard set here.

(PS: Maybe it's because this has been my best ever contest performance-wise: two perfect oracle picks, one of the 105 perfects remaining after Vincent/Ganon, final 20 of the guru contest and possibly gaining a top 10 finish if Sonic wins tomorrow...yeah, I've really enjoyed this contest =D)
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/11/2006 4:01:38 PM | message detail
Let's see, if I had no clue about past contests, I would have had...

Snake winning the contest
Squall over Tidus
Yoshi over Dante (not sure about that one, but I think I was fairly confident in Yoshi's strength back in 2k2)

Sora over Gordon
Mega Man over Ryu

Sonic over Ganon
Luigi over Kirby

Crono over Bowser
Master Chief over Auron

Followed by Mega Man over Sora and Sonic over Crono. Better than my bracket, definitely, but I would've been owned by Master Chief like the rest of the casuals.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/11/2006 4:02:40 PM | message detail
You want everlasting peace? I've got it right here.
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Elite Eight: Sonic the Hedgehog
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 4:03:24 PM | message detail
Sonic VS Samus III, here we go!
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2006 4:03:49 PM | message detail
Sonic > Main bracket
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Supporter of Sonic The Hedgehog
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/11/2006 4:04:04 PM | message detail
Snake > Samus
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Elite Eight: Sonic the Hedgehog