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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 419

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/7/2006 6:46:20 PM | message detail

Tifa, Auron, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Squall were supposed to gain the most from KH2.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda

Haste_2 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:49:13 PM | message detail

And, you might expect Tifa and Auron to gain the most out of those five, since KH2 was their first game. Maybe...at the very least it appears that Tifa and Auron increased more than Squall.

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HoorayProxies | Posted 11/7/2006 6:51:22 PM | message detail

If Tifa gets any significant boost, Jill stops her continuing decline, and suddenly makes a significant boost, I'm not buying that. Squall we can't really tell thanks to Snake SFFing him, and Squall SFFing Tidus. Auron I expected to be underrated last year, though I must admit he surpassed even my expectations. Cloud and Seph obviously remain to be seen. I'd also much sooner attribute FFXII just coming out to Auron overperforming than KHII, though I must say that match definitely made me think twice about it.

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wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:51:32 PM | message detail

The pictures can affect a character's performance. Just look at Link in 2003, Cloud only beat him because of the WW Link pic. And there you could actually distinguish he was Link. Today is much worse because there are a lot of people that don't even know that blonde is Samus.

Actually I looked into this one and WW didnt really seem to affect Link. Its mostly just Zelda fans blowing it out of proportion cause he lost. Cjeey had WW Link through out the contest and performed as excepted...save versus Magus where Magus did very well by pulling 34%...AND WW Link wasnt even in that picture, the only match without the WW pic...it seems it was just the KHF and the Square influx that gave Cloud the edge...

Fludd Mario seems to have more credibility than WW Link...

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/7/2006 6:53:37 PM | message detail

EC is ridiculous. Forget interpretations, it's a flat-out FACT that you went from gloating that KH2 did nothing in one match when the KH character seemingly underperformed (Auron/Sub-Zero) to gloating that Samus was underrated when said character overperformed in the next match (Crono/Auron).

Guess what? KH2F happened, this is a stronger Tifa than we've seen from last year. Samus isn't underrated in the slightest, she'd lose to Mario indirectly every day of the week. And as someone who actually argued that the picture would hurt Samus, comparing this to Solid **** is utter stupidity. It's not on par with Snake/Frog, hell it's not on par with Snake/Bowser. Samus supposedly had FAR more cushion to keep her from losing to a non-Noble as well, and she got flat-out embarrassed.

People can still argue that she's going to take the bracket. But people did the same for Final Fantasy after it got embarrassed by Mario. I'm getting off the train now and making a stand -- Samus is not winning this contest. BOOK IT.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

Tediz247 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:54:32 PM | message detail

If FFXII can cause Auron and Tifa to overperform, then why can't RE4 cause Jill to overperform?
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/7/2006 6:54:37 PM | message detail

How you could possibly say that this isn't as bad as Solid ****, I have no idea.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/7/2006 6:55:47 PM | message detail

From Karma Hunter
EC is ridiculous. Forget interpretations, it's a flat-out FACT that you went from gloating that KH2 did nothing in one match when the KH character seemingly underperformed (Auron/Sub-Zero) to gloating that Samus was underrated when said character overperformed in the next match (Crono/Auron).

Guess what? KH2F happened, this is a stronger Tifa than we've seen from last year. Samus isn't underrated in the slightest, she'd lose to Mario indirectly every day of the week. And as someone who actually argued that the picture would hurt Samus, comparing this to Solid **** is utter stupidity. It's not on par with Snake/Frog, hell it's not on par with Snake/Bowser. Samus supposedly had FAR more cushion to keep her from losing to a non-Noble as well, and she got flat-out embarrassed.

People can still argue that she's going to take the bracket. But people did the same for Final Fantasy after it got embarrassed by Mario. I'm getting off the train now and making a stand -- Samus is not winning this contest. BOOK IT.

You're right. Zelda is.
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.

The_Ocelot | Posted 11/7/2006 6:56:30 PM | message detail

From Karma Hunter
Samus is not winning this contest. BOOK IT.

I was never aware that people thought she was going to win in the first place.

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Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/7/2006 6:57:04 PM | message detail

How you could possibly say that this isn't as bad as Solid ****, I have no idea.

Because I'm not delusional. Samus is far more recognizable than Snake's sprites are. And she looks GOOD here.

If ZSS is causing an underperformance to THIS degree, then what the hell happened in Snake/Squall? Snake got a picture from a game that absolutely no one has played.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/7/2006 6:57:29 PM | message detail

Instead of everyone making themselves look stupid NOW, how about just waiting 4 days.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/7/2006 6:57:39 PM | message detail

I was never aware that people thought she was going to win in the first place.

She's the favorite here to do so.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

HoorayProxies | Posted 11/7/2006 6:57:50 PM | message detail

Because KH hates me. Honestly, I don't understand how what I'm saying is crazy or off the wall at all. I have fun with the matches, every time you consider me to be gloating, I guarantee you it was in pure jest among people who I consider friends in this topic. I'm not the person to go around running LOL I TOLD YOU SO OWNED *****, OWNED. Seriously, please find me one example of KHIIF being a glaring fact. The closest thing you have is Auron, and I already expected him to do better than expectations last year, throw in the fact that FFXII has just come out, and these votals are crizzunked, and it makes sense.

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wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:59:20 PM | message detail

I'd say its the same as Solid **** in that it makes the character look totally different than normal...

So far I got Solid ****, ZS Samus and probably Fludd Mario as evidence of pic factor...are there any other ones I'm missing?
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/7/2006 6:59:29 PM | message detail

The_Ocelot | Posted 11/7/2006 6:59:32 PM | message detail

She's the favorite here to do so.

last time I checked Crono was the favorite pre-contest
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Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101

HoorayProxies | Posted 11/7/2006 6:59:59 PM | message detail

If FFXII can cause Auron and Tifa to overperform, then why can't RE4 cause Jill to overperform?

The idea is the people are coming for FFXII FAQs since the game just came out, and aren't likely to become a mainstay in the GFAQs community. RE4 has been out for far too long to cause a sudden RE influx, plus the game is so completely different from the past RE's it's just not comparable at all.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/7/2006 7:00:33 PM | message detail

last time I checked Crono was the favorite pre-contest

Then you didn't check very well. Samus is the Guru Favorite, the BOP favorite...just like last year.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

Haste_2 | Posted 11/7/2006 7:02:28 PM | message detail

n00b avenger, it's fun to speculate, and it's not like everyone says their speculations are law, or even that they're confident in them.

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The_Ocelot | Posted 11/7/2006 7:02:32 PM | message detail

From Karma Hunter

Then you didn't check very well. Samus is the Guru Favorite, the BOP favorite...just like last year.

Funny cause when people were posting there brackets and asking for opinions before the contest, most people that I saw had Crono. I also seem to remember a fair number of topics discussing Crono as the favorite. Whatever, I got Crono thats all I know.

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Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101

Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/7/2006 7:02:45 PM | message detail

If ZSS is causing an underperformance to THIS degree, then what the hell happened in Snake/Squall? Snake got a picture from a game that absolutely no one has played.

You could still tell that it was Snake though. He looks almost the same, just with grey hair. This picture basically looks nothing like Samus. I don't care how good it looks. You could put a porn star there, it still wouldn't be Samus and it would still lower her strength.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

HoorayProxies | Posted 11/7/2006 7:03:52 PM | message detail

I know it's in good fun and that you jest, it's simply the arguments themselves that irk me. I mean...what kind of a result would you have required here to accept that either KH2 had an effect or that Samus wasn't underrated?

Tifa performing better than expected against Peach, Aeris not falling apart against Zelda (I know I bring up FFXII, but I've always been a very big supporter of games having a better effect a week after release than day on, Cloud/Mario probably would have had a different result, but it still would have been 50/50), Squall taking it to Snake, Rikku (still dunno if she's in 2) overperforming on Samus, Cloud beating Link. I'm open to changing my mind... but when things don't deviate from my previous beliefs, I'm not going to.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/7/2006 7:05:41 PM | message detail

You could still tell that it was Snake though. He looks almost the same, just with grey hair.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

...I'm the biggest Snake fan on this board, and I double-took at least three times when I first saw his MGS4 incarnation. He's decrepit; it's hardly recognizable.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 7:05:57 PM | message detail

Didnt Snake take it to Squall?

O_o?
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down

Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/7/2006 7:06:09 PM | message detail

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

...I'm the biggest Snake fan on this board, and I double-took at least three times when I first saw his MGS4 incarnation. He's decrepit; it's hardly recognizable.

...
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

Master Moltar | Posted 11/7/2006 7:07:53 PM | message detail

Samus may be higher up, but Tifa is also much stronger than Frog. Hell, the gap between Snake and Frog is larger than the one between Samus and Tifa.

And this really isn't that different from Sprite Snake. Both look extremely different than what the casuals are used to seeing. I mean, even Sprite Snake was playable. Zero Suit Samus is only from a trailer. You can't even compared Old Snake to this, because ZSS looks nothing like suited Samus.

Now yeah, I'll admit that I didn't think the Zero Suit picture would make much of a difference, but it really seems that casuals just don't recognize her. Apparently, not everyone on GameFAQs knows about the SSBB trailer.

And let me throw in the fact that I've never said that the SSBB trailer would be boosting anyone.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Tifa - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (88/96)

trannyscience | Posted 11/7/2006 7:10:02 PM | message detail

I cannot wait for the next week, maybe the best week in contest history, to happen so some of these arguments will simmer down. it's like you guys want to choke each other over an internet contest or something.
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zizzy

Janus5000 | Posted 11/7/2006 7:10:27 PM | message detail

Zero Suit Samus is only from a trailer.

I'm pretty sure she's called Zero Suit Samus because she's playable in part of Metroid Zero Mission.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/7/2006 7:10:51 PM | message detail

*strangles tranny*
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

Janus5000 | Posted 11/7/2006 7:11:11 PM | message detail

SHUT UP TRANNY OR I KILL YOU AS IF YOU WERE FROM SHADOW HEARTS
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4

HoorayProxies | Posted 11/7/2006 7:12:49 PM | message detail

Metroid has obviously not performed up to the levels of Samus in these contests, right? Right. Then why is Samus, a character who doesn't have any significant personality so strong in these contests? Two reasons to me, aside from her games core strength. Character design. A kickass bounty hunter in a full armor futuristic suit with an arm blaster. And second SSB. I don't think anyone disagrees with her drawing a significant amount of strength for SSB. She never looks like this in any SSB game, there is never any hint to her being a female, and she is never called Samus Aran (at least I don't think so. >_>). If I had limited knowledge of Metroid, and only played SSB, I would certainly think this is some other Samus. No I don't actually know another Samus, but that's the point, she becomes virtually unknown to many people.

Now on top of that, lets relate this to Solid Snake for a second. In MGS you're constantly getting pounded by the fact that you're playing as Solid Snake, you're called by the name constantly, etc. Samus not so much, if you haven't played Zero Mission, you've never seen Samus like this before, and it's not constantly pounded into your skull that you are indeed Samus. Yes this is grasping, but I actually believe it to have some affect, no matter how small, the key point is the one above really, this is just an accessory. Go to the game boards, and it's easy to see that a lot of the people who frequent this site aren't exactly geniuses.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/7/2006 7:15:33 PM | message detail

Then you didn't check very well. Samus is the Guru Favorite, the BOP favorite...just like last year.

Wow, I didn't think the board was THAT stupid last year.

TuRtLe
~~~
81/88 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/7/2006 7:16:56 PM | message detail

But exactly how much of an overperformance are you expecting here...from that? Regardless of the picture, the fact of the matter is this match was never supposed to be in doubt. EVER. Samus was supposed to thrash Tifa, most predictions ranged from 58-60%.

You can point at Snake/Frog all you want, but y'know what? That match still heralded Snake's absolute weakest year. I can't believe for a second that Samus is as strong as the 2k5 stats say. People just won't freaking let go of 2004.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

Janus5000 | Posted 11/7/2006 7:18:33 PM | message detail

...Can we still point to Snake/Bowser?
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
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AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 7:18:58 PM | message detail

I hope KH is playing some kind of joke here.
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caps

Draco1214 | Posted 11/7/2006 7:19:21 PM | message detail

Snake (2004c) VS Frog (2005c)

Snake has a strength of 33.05.
Frog has a strength of 24.97.

Snake wins with 62.22% of the vote!
A win of 22,563 with 92,289 total votes cast.
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Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/7/2006 7:19:44 PM | message detail

I mean, does this mean Samus is screwed the second she goes up against a Noble Niner with a ZSS picture? When she'll normally put up 55%+ on the lower half? I'm not believing what I'm seeing now is the biggest picture factor in contest history.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

HoorayProxies | Posted 11/7/2006 7:21:32 PM | message detail

I fully admit I expected Samus to do some thrashing here, but when it's this clear that something completely crunked up is going on here, I'm not really going to try and take anything out of it at all. It's like trying to take something out of Zelda/Terra, it's just silly when something that wacky occurs.

And yes, it was Snake's weakest year, but Frog still takes a 7% dropoff in 2K5, and if you think Samus is overrated, then it's an even bigger dropoff. It's not like something like this is completely unprecedented. It's not just hanging on to 2K4 either, Samus looked like an absolute ****ing beast until she hit the brick wall named Mario. It's more like people clinging to one match to overthrow everything Samus has done in the previous 6.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!

HoorayProxies | Posted 11/7/2006 7:24:01 PM | message detail

Oh, and I'm not attributing 100% of this to ZSS either, I'm giving some of the cred to FFXII (yeah, not want you want to hear!), this is going to hit 140,000 votes... that's just absolutely sick. Say 2% or so. I still think ZSS is by far the number 1 culprit at play though.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!

Master Moltar | Posted 11/7/2006 7:24:52 PM | message detail

I'm pretty sure she's called Zero Suit Samus because she's playable in part of Metroid Zero Mission.

Crap, that's right. I've played through it and can barely remember that part. Still, this is the new and improved 3D version!

And really, Samus has done very well prior to this match, especially if Rikku stayed constant. Well enough to seem just as strong as she was in 2005 prior to her match with Mario. Now all of a sudden she drops like that? I'm not going to say if Samus has or hasn't dropped yet, but to deny that this picture is playing a huge role seems crazy.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Tifa - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (88/96)

HoorayProxies | Posted 11/7/2006 7:25:53 PM | message detail

Crazy... LIKE A FOX!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/7/2006 7:26:35 PM | message detail

If Samus was in her suit, this would be a 53-47 affair.

If this match took place a week ago, it would have been a 55-45 match.

Put them together, and you get what should have been a 58-42 match, just enough for a Tifa KH2/AC boost

TuRtLe
~~~
81/88 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1

trannyscience | Posted 11/7/2006 7:28:33 PM | message detail

I'm taking a wait-and-see stance here. we have no idea what's happening here and anyone that claims otherwise is nuts. you think this is a Square influx with FF12? wait for tomorrow's match. you think this is Tifa being strong? let's see Mega Man. you think Samus is choking? let's see how she does against Zelda.
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zizzy

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/7/2006 7:29:52 PM | message detail

And really, Samus has done very well prior to this match, especially if Rikku stayed constant.

If the Dream Division is overrated to the extent that Crono implies, she actually underperformed there. And let's not forget how bad Rikku's picture was in that match! Yes, let's throw out pic factor for everything now!

I'm not saying Samus isn't still strong as hell, or that she'd lose to Snake or something (...but how sweet it would be if she did...). But nor can I accept her being as strong as 2k5 implies. A lot can change in two years, assuming she wasn't overrated in 2004 to begin with.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 7:31:16 PM | message detail

And let's not forget how bad Rikku's picture was in that match!

Who's forgetting? Rikku underperformed by 5%.
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caps

HoorayProxies | Posted 11/7/2006 7:31:19 PM | message detail

Keno316 | Posted 11/7/2006 7:33:35 PM | message detail

Samus being overrated in 2k4 wouldn't be surprising about now, really...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB

Master Moltar | Posted 11/7/2006 7:35:01 PM | message detail

I don't even know what to think about Ryu and Rikku 2005 yet. I'd like to see where MM is first. Besides, Rikku normal picture was in the background, and that is what saved Snake from another big sprite underperformance, because that was probably his worst yet.

Yeah, this match doesn't look good for Samus's 2005 value, but I'd rather not seriosuly draw on anything from a match that could be as fishy as this.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Tifa - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (88/96)

creativename | Posted 11/7/2006 7:35:32 PM | message detail

Character design. A kickass bounty hunter in a full armor futuristic suit with an arm blaster. And second SSB.

Agreed.

If I had limited knowledge of Metroid, and only played SSB, I would certainly think this is some other Samus. No I don't actually know another Samus, but that's the point, she becomes virtually unknown to many people.

Also true.

I think this has been mentioned before, but I think no picture at all wouldn't hurt Samus; it's just that to a significant minority, this picture might look like the picture of another character entirely.

As I said earlier, no one really foresaw anything of this magnitude before the match, but really the two most sensible explanations are the picture and Tifa going up a lot in strength. With FF12 being a long shot.

It seems like people are in denial about pictures though, and I don't know why. We've already known for fact that pictures can on occasion make a substantial difference. Why the continued resistance? Maybe this isn't the picture, but it doesn't make sense to vehemently argue against what is the obvious culprit.
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Draco1214 | Posted 11/7/2006 7:35:44 PM | message detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

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