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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 419

PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/7/2006 3:25:37 PM | message detail
You know what I could see? SAMUS > SEPH OH YEAH EC IS BACK BABY WHOOO.

>_>

Seriously though, I like how Samus goes up 100 in 5 minutes, goes up 14 the next 5 minutes, then goes down 11 the next 5. This match has been funky like that. And yes, I fully realize that when Yuna outperforms all expectations tomorrow, you'll are going to say "FFXII'D" but then I'll just remind you of how underrated Samus really was. It sucks that Auron was the other person to be underrated by Samus, because you can tag FFXII on him too, and then Ganon is behind a possibly, and probably boosted Vincent, who was beaten by a damn good looking Sonic so far. Well, we'll see the truth when it's all over at least!

Oh, and I'm with ngamer and cname on this one. If FFXII was a major reason for this, her 58% shouldn't have been coming at that time, which was by far her best %. Considering that Samus is underperforming by about 10% here, and you want to attribute that to FFXII, there shouldn't be that kind of dropoff from that time to now if it is a significant factor. I still think it's partially responsible, just by a very small amount. ZSS > FFXII > KHII (if at all).

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/7/2006 3:54:18 PM | message detail
And yes, I fully realize that when Yuna outperforms all expectations tomorrow, you'll are going to say "FFXII'D"

If Yuna did, I suppose they would get a chance to say that...but Yuna's not going to get close to outperforming expectations!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/7/2006 3:55:34 PM | message detail
Well considering expectations should be Zelda with 57%, I agree whole-heartedly!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/7/2006 3:57:01 PM | message detail
57% is more like a bare minimum of Zelda. Her actual percentage will be greater than Ganon, yo!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/7/2006 3:57:45 PM | message detail
Ahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

You're so funny, it's cute!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/7/2006 3:58:17 PM | message detail
HEY EC LOOK AT SAMUS BEING UNDERRATED OH YEAH

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/7/2006 3:58:57 PM | message detail
Glad you've come to your senses!

Who's da' wittle baybee yes you are!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/7/2006 4:00:42 PM | message detail
Senses? There's nothing sensical about thinking Samus is underrated. Of course, getting you to realize that has been quite a task!

It'll be great to continue to see the Samus damage control when Zelda beats her ass down !!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/7/2006 4:03:06 PM | message detail
What? Changing opinions in only 2 minutes? It's like HM on crack!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/7/2006 4:05:39 PM | message detail
Preliminary stats (assuming Tifa finishes with 49% here):

Samus Aran – 41.69%
Tifa Lockhart – 40.86%
Princess Peach – 28.56%
Jill Valentine – 28.55%
Rikku – 25.85%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 21.68%
Kairi – 21.57%
The Boss – 20.80%
Claire Redfield – 20.67%
Ivy Valentine – 19.47%
Ada Wong – 16.86%
Celes Chere – 16.19%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 12.93%
Princess Daisy – 9.65%
Jade – 8.13%

Heh heh, even a massive overperformance can't pull Daisy over 10% on BL, though it looks like it'll keep her from being dead last in the stats.

Female Division Upper Half

Samus Aran – 50.00%
Tifa Lockhart – 49.00%
Princess Peach – 34.25%
Jill Valentine – 34.24%
Rikku – 31.00%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 26.00%
Kairi – 25.87%
The Boss – 24.94%
Claire Redfield – 24.79%
Ivy Valentine – 23.34%
Ada Wong – 20.22%
Celes Chere – 19.41%
Nidoran F – 18.15%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 15.50%
Princess Daisy – 11.58%
Jade – 9.75%
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 7: Bahamut (2-4)
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 4:08:32 PM | message detail
Sheena Fujibayashi – 21.68%
Kairi – 21.57%


what
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caps
BDawg | Posted 11/7/2006 4:08:58 PM | message detail
I just can't believe lightning will strike twice, Zelda is gonna get rolled up by Samus. But yeah I would still consider Tifa/Zelda a worthy match under normal circumstances.
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Should I start running now?
HaRRicH | Posted 11/7/2006 4:10:05 PM | message detail
Alright guys, Rikku/Peach, who do you pick?

Amazing Kirby and Ulti can't vote.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 4:12:27 PM | message detail
Ri-damn.
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caps
creativename | Posted 11/7/2006 4:13:11 PM | message detail
A big Yuna overperformance would lend some credence to FF12, though it wouldn't be entirely convincing because people were calling for Yuna overperforming heavily on Zelda a while back, without taking FF12 into consideration. Yuna's looked good so far, and while Zelda should win comfortably, Yuna doing very well on Zelda wouldn't be out of left field.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 4:15:27 PM | message detail
Also, seeing Yuna and Zelda's names in the final 8 of a contest bracket makes me giggle with joy. >_>
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caps
Keno316 | Posted 11/7/2006 4:15:33 PM | message detail
I still believe this is Samus showing that she's not as strong as people thought she was. And Zelda will now have an edge to decimate her next round.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
Master Moltar | Posted 11/7/2006 4:16:40 PM | message detail
Princess Peach – 28.56%
Jill Valentine – 28.55%
Rikku – 25.85%


Ok, that's just no.

But Sheena > Kairi kinda makes up for Peach and Jill being upper-midcarders!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Tifa - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (88/96)
Master Moltar | Posted 11/7/2006 4:17:23 PM | message detail
By the way Leon, you should do how that looks using 2005 Tifa for kicks.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Tifa - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (88/96)
Nyah | Posted 11/7/2006 4:18:36 PM | message detail
I vote the xstaters make two seperate values for Samus this year, one for normal armor samus and one for ZS Samus.
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"If truly there is evil in this world it lurks in the hearts of man" -- Edward D. Morrison
Kaxon | Posted 11/7/2006 4:21:00 PM | message detail
Nowadays? Meh, Tifa was probably always ahead of Aeris, and likely not that close together.

I have to disagree with that. In 2002 Aeris definitely would have been closer than she is now, and she might have been stronger. For whatever reason, her relative popularity seems to be on the decline while Tifa's has been on the rise. In 1998, I'm dead certain Aeris would have been stronger than Tifa in a poll.
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....TCELES B HSUP
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/7/2006 4:24:54 PM | message detail
From The_Beginning Posted 11/7/2006 4:39:57 PM #004
lol @ this being made now

It's been getting made at 300 during contest season for three years. I don't get the whining.

And tag. I have some catching up to do with reading these things =p

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
trannyscience | Posted 11/7/2006 4:26:52 PM | message detail
Peach > DK confirmed!
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zizzy
cdw01 | Posted 11/7/2006 4:30:45 PM | message detail
Tifa is starting to come back again. O.o
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/7/2006 4:31:48 PM | message detail
It would be awesome if Tifa could bring this back down to below 100 by the end of the match.
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CB5 Points: 91/96, Current Oracle placement: 22/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/7/2006 4:32:34 PM | message detail
I just want Tifa to get it closer than Bowser did against Snake.
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Demyx > Axel
Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Phoenix Wright 2: Justice For All
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/7/2006 4:32:47 PM | message detail
Samus Aran – 34.24%
Tifa Lockhart – 33.57%
Princess Peach – 22.79%
Jill Valentine – 22.78%
Rikku – 21.23%
Kairi – 17.71%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 17.31%
The Boss – 17.09%
Claire Redfield – 16.91%
Ivy Valentine – 15.99%
Ada Wong – 13.85%
Celes Chere – 13.30%
Nidoran F – 12.43%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 10.62%
Princess Daisy – 7.70%
Jade – 6.68%

Hey, this only makes Samus .5% lower than her unadjusted 2005 value! Random variation? SOUNDS GOOD TO ME!

Also, it appears I made an error with Peach's four-pack, so I'll have to recalculate those values and repost them.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 7: Bahamut (2-4)
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/7/2006 4:33:07 PM | message detail
So I glanced over what I missed, which was nothing. Smurf trolling with another alt, people claiming every factor imaginable to be fact, and a general lack of intelligence all over the place. Any random moron can look smart after the fact, but the FACT is that only tifa fanboys believed Tifa would do a damn thing today. Backtracking to save face is just dumb. Pretty much all of us got served here.

And people claiming pic factor after arguing that pics don't matter for months and months and months amuse me. I won't mention any names, for once =p

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/7/2006 4:33:39 PM | message detail
It's been getting made at 300 during contest season for three years. I don't get the whining.

Actually, this was made at around 470, heh.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 7: Bahamut (2-4)
wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 4:35:59 PM | message detail
lol at Jill and Peach being stronger than Rikku...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/7/2006 4:37:59 PM | message detail
And people claiming pic factor after arguing that pics don't matter for months and months and months amuse me. I won't mention any names, for once =p

You can't really make up any other viable reason to explain an overperformance of this magnitude. FFXII, KHII, and AC are only worth so much. Most of the time, pictures don't make a difference, but when you make a character nigh unrecognizable to the core fans or completely change their image, odd things will happen. What? You want me to argue against pictures NEVER mattering (which I never did, by the way. I just said it was rare and often overblown too much) despite this?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 7: Bahamut (2-4)
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/7/2006 4:38:59 PM | message detail
I think that the "European" factor is overrated. Geno could only gain 1% against Squall because of it, which is hardly impressive. Final Fantasy's always been good with the night vote (despite FF being more popular in the US than Europe), so I would expect FFXII to mostly augment the night vote of FF characters.

Again, I'm not saying it's the main reason for Tifa doing so well, but 2% from FFXII is more than reasonable, IMO.

And people claiming pic factor after arguing that pics don't matter for months and months and months amuse me. I won't mention any names, for once =p

What's wrong with changing your mind? I argued Ganon > Sonic for quite a while, but it would be stupid to continue arguing that after evidence to the contrary appears.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/7/2006 4:40:59 PM | message detail
Samus Aran – 41.69%
Tifa Lockhart – 40.86%
Princess Peach – 27.74%
Jill Valentine – 27.73%
Rikku – 25.85%
Kairi – 21.57%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 21.06%
The Boss – 20.80%
Claire Redfield – 20.67%
Ivy Valentine – 19.47%
Ada Wong – 16.86%
Celes Chere – 16.19%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 12.93%
Princess Daisy – 9.38%
Jade – 8.13%

That's what the stats SHOULD look like. I put in Peach as having 34.95% before instead of 33.95%.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 7: Bahamut (2-4)
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 4:41:41 PM | message detail
Kairi back over Sheena? Much better!
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/7/2006 4:41:46 PM | message detail
Wow, using 2005 Tifa looks better than using 2005 Samus. Infact, aside from Samus and Rikku, everyone else looks more or less alright.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Tifa - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (88/96)
Keno316 | Posted 11/7/2006 4:43:05 PM | message detail
Samus Aran – 41.69%
Tifa Lockhart – 40.86%
Princess Peach – 27.74%
Jill Valentine – 27.73%
Rikku – 25.85%
Kairi – 21.57%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 21.06%
The Boss – 20.80%
Claire Redfield – 20.67%
Ivy Valentine – 19.47%
Ada Wong – 16.86%
Celes Chere – 16.19%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 12.93%
Princess Daisy – 9.38%
Jade – 8.13%


That gap between the top gals and the rest is quite incredible.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
trannyscience | Posted 11/7/2006 4:44:02 PM | message detail
that's cause Samus's division is all untested fodder for the most part, with the exception of Rikku.

I kinda like Samus = Crono right now, for no real reason other than it being a middle ground. this can't be ALL picture.
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zizzy
Nyah | Posted 11/7/2006 4:44:35 PM | message detail
After today's match one can safely say pictures do matter, especially if you couple this match with Bowser/Snake, and Magus/Link.
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"If truly there is evil in this world it lurks in the hearts of man" -- Edward D. Morrison
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/7/2006 4:45:26 PM | message detail
What? You want me to argue against pictures NEVER mattering (which I never did, by the way. I just said it was rare and often overblown too much) despite this?

Actually yes. Stick to the guns you load.

As for KH2/AC/FF12 not mattering, were you here in 2003? This year for Mega Man/Sora? Ganon/Vincent? Kairi/Claire? Come on dude, it's not impossible. And we'll definitely know more over the next two weeks.

Besides, FF12 is looking to be the first widely accepted great FF title since 7. I think Cloud would really have a shot at Link in the BR if TP didn't exist.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/7/2006 4:48:16 PM | message detail
Actually yes. Stick to the guns you load.

That's just stupid. When evidence to the contrary appears, you change your theories to suit it.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 4:52:22 PM | message detail
Pic Factor was already confirmed before this with Bowser being exposed as overrated after his performance on Solid **** last year.

What matches was Fludd Mario used in again?
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/7/2006 4:53:24 PM | message detail
Actually yes. Stick to the guns you load.

No, thanks. There's no point for me to shoot blanks. There's nothing wrong with changing your mind in the face of evidence. As a matter of fact, that's generally what an intelligent person would do. And I didn't change my stance that much anyway. For the most part, pictures don't matter, and I still believe it. If Zelda flatout beats Samus in a suit, then we can talk again.

As for KH2/AC/FF12 not mattering, were you here in 2003? This year for Mega Man/Sora? Ganon/Vincent? Kairi/Claire? Come on dude, it's not impossible. And we'll definitely know more over the next two weeks.

Kairi/Claire's a bad example because Kairi was a complete unknown anyway.

And anything Vincent got was really tame compared to the rest then, unless Sonic is going to win the whole tournament. And what in the world happened to Aeris then? If Samus chokes in the final and doesn't win, and/or Cloud beats Link, I'll reconsider it, but until then, I can't see it doing THIS much. Square's finally back on the upswing, I recognize that much, but not for Tifa to be hanging around at the top of the non-Clinkeroth group...seems a bit much to blame on KHII, AC, and FFXII.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 7: Bahamut (2-4)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/7/2006 4:56:32 PM | message detail
A big Yuna overperformance would lend some credence to FF12, though it wouldn't be entirely convincing because people were calling for Yuna overperforming heavily on Zelda a while back, without taking FF12 into consideration. Yuna's looked good so far, and while Zelda should win comfortably, Yuna doing very well on Zelda wouldn't be out of left field.

If Yuna does overperform by quite a bit, I would be convinced that FFXII is definitely making its presence known here. Zelda has exceeded expectations and statistical projections in every match she's been in. While Yuna looks stronger, a pretty big overperformance would be out of left field after how dominative Zelda has looked in comparison. Yuna getting 60% on Chun-Li is definitely good...but Zelda got 57% on Aeris.

Of course, I think Zelda is going to beat Yuna worse than she beat Aeris, perhaps even with numbers comparable to Ganon, which would be pretty impressive regardless of FFXII's effect.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
charmander6000 | Posted 11/7/2006 4:57:43 PM | message detail
If there is one thing that I have noticed in this match is the match picture. For the first time ever Samus gets her Zero Suit picture and as happy the board is about that I have a feeling Samus will underperform in this match. Sure many Metroid fans know her in her suit less form, but Samus does get a lot of her strength from the SSB series. The reason why she was so strong in 2k2 despite 8 years without a Metroid game was because of the SSB series. I can see the picture factor be almost as bad as Solid **** (okay maybe not that bad).

I was wrong about the last sentence, but the rest is all what I predicted.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Big Bob | Posted 11/7/2006 4:59:11 PM | message detail
What matches was Fludd Mario used in again?

Mario/Shadow
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 5:00:39 PM | message detail
Mario/Shadow

Well, would you look at that!

Any others?

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Garsha_III | Posted 11/7/2006 5:02:27 PM | message detail
Mario/Sephiroth
Mario/Morrigan
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The Beatles >>>> Lolicon.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2006 5:06:34 PM | message detail
Mario/Sephiroth? Well that would explain why he did worse than Megaman...
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"........!" ~Magus
wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 5:08:56 PM | message detail
And look...in the Mario/Morrigan match, she nearly avoided getting doubled...

>_> Interesting...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/7/2006 5:08:59 PM | message detail
I'm not seeing nearly enough discussion of Female Bracket Factor going on here! Villains Contest Factor is pretty much accepted, and I can certainly see this match having some of that.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda