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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 419

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Lady Ashe | Posted 11/7/2006 1:39:06 PM | message detail
Zelda > Samus is a lock!



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games (down for now, so here's a new link):
http://transience.paragonsigma.com/top100.txt

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php
SHINE GET 64 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:39:33 PM | message detail
Samus > Zelda
Mega Man > Snake
Samus > Crono


BOOK IT
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Basch is sooo sexy!
http://www.galbadiax.com/ff12/wallpaper/basch-1024.jpg
Lady Ashe | Posted 11/7/2006 1:39:37 PM | message detail
It got quite a bit past 300. >_>
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
The_Beginning | Posted 11/7/2006 1:39:57 PM | message detail
lol @ this being made now
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I am the Alpha, someone else is the Omega.
The_Ocelot | Posted 11/7/2006 1:40:08 PM | message detail
From SHINE GET 64
Samus > Zelda
Mega Man > Snake
Samus < Crono


BOOK IT



---
Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101
wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:40:17 PM | message detail
>_>
v_v
<_<
^_^

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
SHINE GET 64 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:40:57 PM | message detail
THAT'S A DIRTY TRICK MR OCELOT
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Basch is sooo sexy!
http://www.galbadiax.com/ff12/wallpaper/basch-1024.jpg
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/7/2006 1:41:35 PM | message detail
Samus>Zelda
MM>Snake
Sonic>Crono
MM>Sonic
MM>Samus

Book that ****. My bracket did. >_>
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
WarThaNemesis | Posted 11/7/2006 1:42:34 PM | message detail
Zelda will do worse on Samus than Squall did on Snake!

Remember, both were locks according to Lady Ashe!
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
Lady Ashe | Posted 11/7/2006 1:49:30 PM | message detail
Since when did I have Squall over Snake?
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/7/2006 1:49:54 PM | message detail
ZELDA > SAMUS !!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2006 1:50:08 PM | message detail
Samus>Zelda
MM>Snake
Sonic<Crono
MM>Crono
MM>Samus

Book that ****. My bracket did. >_>


Fixed.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Keno316 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:50:30 PM | message detail
I'm just content with Tifa potentially keeping this under 51%...Good Show Tif!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
creativename | Posted 11/7/2006 1:50:52 PM | message detail
Note that not believing in FF12 influencing this match is my opinion, I'm not positive about it or anything. I just really doubt it. There's no need to resort to that anyway, when something much more obvious is literally staring us in the face.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:51:01 PM | message detail
Samus vs Shadow the Hedgehog

Who wins?
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
/)__)::::::::::::::::::::::::(__(\:::::::::::::
jayguar | Posted 11/7/2006 1:51:09 PM | message detail
Samus >> Zelda... i think Tifa would've taken down Zelda..
trannyscience | Posted 11/7/2006 1:51:37 PM | message detail
well, there's 100,000 votes.

*looks* Zelda/FF had 121k at this point. woohoo summer!
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zizzy
wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:51:48 PM | message detail
Samus>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Shadow

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Master Moltar | Posted 11/7/2006 1:52:00 PM | message detail
Samus is still walking over both brackets folks. She'll be back in her orange suit in no time!!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Tifa - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (88/96)
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:52:37 PM | message detail
If she takes down the male bracket, the x-stats are going with her.
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
/)__)::::::::::::::::::::::::(__(\:::::::::::::
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/7/2006 1:53:00 PM | message detail
Shadow>Sam Fisher>MM>Sonic>Samus.

Right Criona?
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
HaRRicH | Posted 11/7/2006 1:58:00 PM | message detail
Tifa > Zelda, friends. I don't know why people are automatically assuming Zelda is stronger than Tifa all of a sudden.

Not counting SFF, I still don't see Tifa doing better against Aeris than Zelda did under most circumstances...

...and, as I understand, this match is well on its way to being the most voted-in match this contest easily. With the match being so close, I don't see why a so-much-less-recognizable picture of Samus and a KH2 picture of Tifa would draw in so many more votes than usual, much less being the highest-drawing match thus far. I'm now of the opinion this is that FF12 influx we talked about awhile back, because there is no doubt there is big FF12 traffic coming here and there isn't reason for Samus/Tifa to become THIS much bigger of a vote-draw than Solid/Squall (the current leader in vote totals).

I'm calling this the FF12 influx, it's just a bit later than we once expected it and probably helping alot more than we thought it would...and, of course, Samus being out of her suit HAS to hurt her here too. Tifa surely boosted this year, yes, but nothing like this match implies -- have this match two weeks ago (even with the same pic, if you like), and it's still going to look noticably different percentage-wise.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
creativename | Posted 11/7/2006 1:58:39 PM | message detail
Catching up on the earlier topics, and I saw this post by Ngamer:
But that's just the thing. Tifa is pulling in these huge 58% update victories during the hours of voting dominated by Europeans. Euroes, as in... the one group that isn't playing FF12 right now.

Very solid insight there. Yeah, FF12 factor can pretty much be thrown out IMO.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
Kaxon | Posted 11/7/2006 2:00:47 PM | message detail
By the way, this match should be taken as yet another example of why the new poll time sucks. It's been an amazing match as is, but it would have been twice as epic with the old poll time. Tifa would have started winning updates as soon as the board/bracket vote was over, and probably would have lead by a thousand votes before morning started. People really would have been questioning Samus's ability to come back if Tifa's 55% hours had come right at the beginning when she was leading, instead of when she was trying to come back.
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....TCELES B HSUP
creativename | Posted 11/7/2006 2:02:04 PM | message detail
Let's not complain about minor things ;) This match is enjoyable enough, no need to be greedy :)
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
HaRRicH | Posted 11/7/2006 2:03:56 PM | message detail
CN has an interesting point there...er, NGamer does, whichever. Hmmm.....
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
Kaxon | Posted 11/7/2006 2:06:20 PM | message detail
Very solid insight there. Yeah, FF12 factor can pretty much be thrown out IMO.

Actually, not that solid an insight. Night time in the US is daytime in Europe and Asia. Metroid vastly more popular in the US than in Japan (MP sold under 100k in Japan, IIRC), and Smash Bros is a lot more popular in the US than it is in Europe. All that tells us is that the differences between regions are bigger factors than FF XII's release, but since those differences are basically constants, it's almost a meaningless observation.
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....TCELES B HSUP
trannyscience | Posted 11/7/2006 2:07:12 PM | message detail
disagree with N/cn there. (cnn? works for me!) FF is simply stronger than Nintendo at night. has been all contest. that's not going to change.

now, is this huge vote gain because of FF12? I have no idea and don't pretend to know. but I wouldn't rule out the possibility.
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zizzy
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 2:07:21 PM | message detail
Actually Sam Fisher has a new game out. So why is nobody claiming that Tifa is doing well because of the influx of Splinter Cell fanboys?
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
/)__)::::::::::::::::::::::::(__(\:::::::::::::
creativename | Posted 11/7/2006 2:09:10 PM | message detail
Actually, not that solid an insight. Night time in the US is daytime in Europe and Asia. Metroid vastly more popular in the US than in Japan (MP sold under 100k in Japan, IIRC), and Smash Bros is a lot more popular in the US than it is in Europe. All that tells us is that the differences between regions are bigger factors than FF XII's release, but since those differences are basically constants, it's almost a meaningless observation.

I don't understand what you're saying. We know that Samus' day vote is solid, so that's the base of comparison. To call that observation meaningless is way off. It's somewhat conclusive, actually.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
creativename | Posted 11/7/2006 2:10:37 PM | message detail
Or in other words, "The trends were what we thought they were!" ;)
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/7/2006 2:12:11 PM | message detail
Not counting SFF, I still don't see Tifa doing better against Aeris than Zelda did under most circumstances...

...I don't see why not. Aeris was thoroughly unimpressive the entire contest. Tifa getting 57%+ wouldn't be a shock at all.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 7: Bahamut (2-4)
red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2006 2:12:38 PM | message detail
Yes, but that does not eliminate the possibility of Samus winning the day vote by more if not for FFXII, given Tifa's history of losing the day vote.
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"........!" ~Magus
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/7/2006 2:13:22 PM | message detail
Or in other words, "The trends were what we thought they were!" ;)

Well, Kairi/Claire, Peach/Jill, and Dante/Yoshi all went the same way as this, and I said this probably would, too. That's why it's so disappointing.
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 7: Bahamut (2-4)
Kaxon | Posted 11/7/2006 2:14:50 PM | message detail
I don't understand what you're saying. We know that Samus' day vote is solid, so that's the base of comparison. To call that observation meaningless is way off. It's somewhat conclusive, actually.

Err, not I'm not sure what you're saying. You and Ngamer pointed out that Tifa was doing well while Europe was voting, as if that disproves FF XII as a factor. I don't buy that reasoning. We knew that Tifa's best hours would be at night - the fact that FF XII didn't change that doesn't mean it's not having an effect.
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....TCELES B HSUP
Larbeight | Posted 11/7/2006 2:15:49 PM | message detail
It's slow, but Samus seems to be taking this.
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~Larbeight~. The finest mind of his generation.
creativename | Posted 11/7/2006 2:18:35 PM | message detail
Err, not I'm not sure what you're saying. You and Ngamer pointed out that Tifa was doing well while Europe was voting, as if that disproves FF XII as a factor. I don't buy that reasoning. We knew that Tifa's best hours would be at night - the fact that FF XII didn't change that doesn't mean it's not having an effect.

I really don't get what you're saying.

If FF12 was a factor, it wouldn't be in Europe. So the trends would not be what we would've expected - Tifa would've done horribly in the overnight vote, relative to the presumably massively FF12-affected day vote.

The pic factor and/or an increase in Tifa's strength make vastly more sense. And I think the former is the more significant by a good bit.

But if you wanna believe in FF12 and you wanna crown Cloud's ass, then crown it ;)
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
Larbeight | Posted 11/7/2006 2:20:39 PM | message detail
FF fanboys tend to come out at night, so her strong showing after the bracket voters came and gone could suggest it.
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~Larbeight~. The finest mind of his generation.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/7/2006 2:27:53 PM | message detail
...I don't see why not. Aeris was thoroughly unimpressive the entire contest. Tifa getting 57%+ wouldn't be a shock at all.

I would take Peach to beat KOS-MOS, and if you assume Peach = KOS-MOS then Tifa gets 55.74% on Aeris...but Zelda already got 56.87% on Aeris...

...well, hell, looking at it like this, 57% isn't out of Tifa's reach afterall; my initial logic made me think otherwise. Still though, it doesn't feel right that Tifa's that much further ahead than Aeris nowadays (though I acknowledge it's probably the case).
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
Xuxon | Posted 11/7/2006 2:31:21 PM | message detail
Just felt the need to respond to this from the last topic...

Show me a MM v Sam poll that states otherwise.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=986

:)
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Take off every sig.
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 11/7/2006 2:32:54 PM | message detail
Owned.
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Terrible demon. Ouch...
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/7/2006 2:49:19 PM | message detail
Still though, it doesn't feel right that Tifa's that much further ahead than Aeris nowadays (though I acknowledge it's probably the case).

Nowadays? Meh, Tifa was probably always ahead of Aeris, and likely not that close together.

Am I saying that Vincent or Tifa could've beaten Sonic in 2003? It's very possible, really.
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 7: Bahamut (2-4)
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 11/7/2006 3:05:24 PM | message detail
Alternating lead of 1417. Odd...
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Terrible demon. Ouch...
HaRRicH | Posted 11/7/2006 3:06:31 PM | message detail
Oh, I agree Tifa was probably always ahead of Aeris, but being ahead by that much is a bit uncomfortable...I suppose you could mark it up to their roles in FF:AC and I understand Tifa's simply more seen in KH2 than Aeris, so maybe that's what's throwing me off too.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
Keno316 | Posted 11/7/2006 3:07:29 PM | message detail
I'll stand by overrated Samus...>>
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
trannyscience | Posted 11/7/2006 3:08:11 PM | message detail
I've always wondered about that as well. if Tifa and Vincent are so far ahead of Aeris, a.) why did they never make the field and b.) would they have broken the Noble Nine before it ever existed? then again, looking at Sub-Zero, option A doesn't look valid at all.
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zizzy
Janus5000 | Posted 11/7/2006 3:09:53 PM | message detail
Vincent never made the field because he's an optional character.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/7/2006 3:10:00 PM | message detail
Whoa, 98 vote jump for Samus there.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 7: Bahamut (2-4)
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/7/2006 3:10:53 PM | message detail
Oh snap that last update was pure sex.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Xuxon | Posted 11/7/2006 3:19:16 PM | message detail
2002 x-stats have Aeris breaking 40 on Cloud already... but KH did a lot more for Cloud/Sephiroth than the rest of FF7. And Cloud was almost certainly underrated then anyway. I could see Vincent and Tifa being noticably stronger than Aeris the whole time, and either of them beating Sonic 03 or Snake 04.
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Take off every sig.