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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 418

The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/7/2006 12:56:39 PM | message detail
No. But then again, that point was already addressed
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/7/2006 12:59:51 PM | message detail
Oh Lord, some of you people. No Tifa is not at 40% on BL now, nor is Samus's unadjusted value all of a sudden correct. How anyone can say either of those when the past 3 rounds have said otherwise for both characters is just foolish.

Samus is underperforming because of the ZSS pic. It's obvious. Yeah, I didn't think it would make much of a difference, but apparently that's wrong. Perhaps the SSBB trailers aren't as important to casual voters who don't recognize that's her Zero Suit pic.

As long as Samus never gets her Solid **** equivalent pic again, she should be fine. Thank God we got this pic out of the way against some Samus could actually beat, because Zelda or the male bracket winner definitely would have won against that.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Tifa - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (88/96)
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/7/2006 1:00:06 PM | message detail
This is pure speculation, but perhaps SMS did have an effect later, Samus overperformed on Sephiroth,

Possible. But WDF also affected Mega Man.

Mario overperformed on Crono

Maybe. But unlikely. Crono got 3000 cheated votes, so the match wouldn't have been nearly as close as in 2k3 without those. Still, 3000 votes isn't even close to what Tifa's doing here.

Link overperformed on Sephiroth

You have that backwards.

Link SFFed Mario

SMS helps Link more than Mario? What?

Well, Yuna, Ganon, and Auron have all impressed this contest, and Ganon did get 41+ on Sephiroth.

CATS, Diablo, Kefka, etc. all have problems with this. Ganon wasn't THAT beastly in 2k5.

if Ganon/Auron/Yuna are as strong as they look, I don't see the problem with Ganon being worth, say, 45% on Samus last year before SFF. And I wouldn't be calling for Samus to be overadjusted more than a couple of percent against Mario.

Nobody thought that Ganon was SFF'd that much, not even HM or me. Nothing's happened since to really change my mind.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:00:32 PM | message detail
Tifa now gets 40%+ on Base Link.
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/7/2006 1:00:55 PM | message detail
Nuh uh.

All the people voting for her before that see this match have learned that she was a girl, and will no longer vote for Samus for fear of kooties.

The damage has been done and it is irreversable
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Keno316 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:01:38 PM | message detail
Oh Well...Tifa having broken the N9 would have been great here...specially at the expense of Samus...but looks like it didn't come to fruition. Here's to Zelda doing it next.

And this also makes Samus look mortal again...which is a good thing. Go Male Bracket!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:02:20 PM | message detail
Who wins this Fourpack of practically even characters?

Sonic
Samus

Mario
Tifa

IMO Sonic > Tifa
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
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Big Bob | Posted 11/7/2006 1:03:16 PM | message detail
At this point, only two good things have come from the female bracket.

Jill/Peach, and Samus/Tifa.

Meanwhile the male bracket has been an orgy of unpredictability.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 1:03:18 PM | message detail
Mario > Sonic
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caps
wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:03:42 PM | message detail
Samus>Sonic

Mario>>>>>Tifa

Mario > Samus
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
With Teeth | Posted 11/7/2006 1:03:46 PM | message detail
From AmazingKirby Posted 11/7/2006 9:03:18 PM #359
Mario > Sonic


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DS Gamer XVII in purgatory.
Chamek | Posted 11/7/2006 1:04:13 PM | message detail
Mario > Samus, eeeasily.
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Upon having Rosie O'Donnell corner him in the forest, the pizza delivery man knew how a Goomba felt when Mario got a star. ~ SSJ3 Popo
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:04:21 PM | message detail
And while I'm at it. A 4 pack of midcarders. I don't expect anyone breaking 51% here either.

Leon Kennedy
Donkey Kong

Mega Man
Sam Fisher.


IMO. Leon > Sam
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
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With Teeth | Posted 11/7/2006 1:04:22 PM | message detail
Actually make that Mario > Smaus
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DS Gamer XVII in purgatory.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:05:22 PM | message detail
...
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CB5 Points: 91/96, Current Oracle placement: 22/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana
Osfan | Posted 11/7/2006 1:05:31 PM | message detail
I dunno why people are throwing in the towel yet, Tifa still has 4 good hours at the end we all saw what happened early this morning an 1100 swing... it is getting unlikely but to say its over i think is too soon when we know Tifa is gonna win the night vote before this one is over
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2006 1:05:37 PM | message detail
From Master Moltar
Oh Lord, some of you people. No Tifa is not at 40% on BL now, nor is Samus's unadjusted value all of a sudden correct. How anyone can say either of those when the past 3 rounds have said otherwise for both characters is just foolish.

Samus is underperforming because of the ZSS pic. It's obvious. Yeah, I didn't think it would make much of a difference, but apparently that's wrong. Perhaps the SSBB trailers aren't as important to casual voters who don't recognize that's her Zero Suit pic.

As long as Samus never gets her Solid **** equivalent pic again, she should be fine. Thank God we got this pic out of the way against some Samus could actually beat, because Zelda or the male bracket winner definitely would have won against that.



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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Big Bob | Posted 11/7/2006 1:05:54 PM | message detail
*XDs @ Mega Man being put in the same group as Sam Fisher*
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
With Teeth | Posted 11/7/2006 1:06:13 PM | message detail
From Criona Posted 11/7/2006 9:04:21 PM #363
And while I'm at it. A 4 pack of midcarders. I don't expect anyone breaking 51% here either.

Leon Kennedy
Donkey Kong

Mega Man
Sam Fisher.


IMO. Leon > Sam


...

Mega Man >>>>>> Leon. But you were joking there right?


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DS Gamer XVII in purgatory.
wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:06:16 PM | message detail
Get out of the topic Criona...>_>

Leon>>>>>>>>>>>>DK

MM>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Sam


MM>>>Leon lol SFF
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 1:06:19 PM | message detail
Sam > Donkey Kong
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caps
Keno316 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:06:25 PM | message detail
Haha! next update the lead should finally have reached 1000 for one side...and it took only 16 hours into the match to get there...


...Seriously...who saw this coming!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/7/2006 1:06:38 PM | message detail
As for the match at hand: it's not just one factor that's hurting Samus here. Tifa does have the AC/KH2 boost, on which Jill is the only limiting factor. I can see Jill being a little stronger than she looked in 2k4, but not that much stronger.

So, Tifa has to have increased since the match with Peach. The only two causes for that are the pic and FFXII. Of the two, I would certainly say that the pic is a bigger deal, but FFXII can still have an effect of a percent or two.

If we assume that Tifa increased up to Vincent 2k5's level from AC and KH2 (which is a more than reasonable 2% boost), she's expected to get 42.67% on Samus. From there, a 3.5% boost from the picture and a 2% boost from the picture give her 49.3% on Samus. Is that really so crazy?
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:07:20 PM | message detail
I saw this coming.
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
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wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:07:58 PM | message detail
I saw this coming.

O RLY?
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:08:05 PM | message detail
I can see Jill being a little stronger than she looked in 2k4, but not that much stronger.


Who gives a **** what you see? The stats are all that matters, you can't just alter them so that they "look right".
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
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AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 1:09:29 PM | message detail
XD
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caps
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2006 1:09:43 PM | message detail
From there, a 3.5% boost from the picture and a 2% boost from the picture give her 49.3% on Samus.

Think you meant to include something else there.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:09:54 PM | message detail
Since when are you a stats guru, Criona aka Smurf...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/7/2006 1:10:00 PM | message detail
Who gives a **** what you see? The stats are all that matters, you can't just alter them so that they "look right".

???

Yes, you can. Just compare the 2k4 SFF-adjusted stats vs. the normal stats...the SFF-adjusted ones are far more accurate.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/7/2006 1:10:45 PM | message detail
Think you meant to include something else there.

Heh, I already mentioned that she boosted up to Vincent's level from AC/KH2.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:11:06 PM | message detail
They aren't statistics if you edit them, you realise that?
They're baseless assumptions that count for nothing whatsoever.
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/7/2006 1:11:12 PM | message detail
Since when are you a stats guru, Criona aka Smurf...

Well, he did create Smurf Stats...
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Chamek | Posted 11/7/2006 1:12:21 PM | message detail
Is that really so crazy?

Not crazy, whatsoever.

My only fear is that Samus will go on to be rSFF'ed by Zelda next round, and not get a chance to prove her worth once again until the next summer contest (if we have one). Plus it'd bite the big one for Zelda to get put into the "ToC" along with the five male constituents on the basis of rSFF working in her favor alone, and for Samus to be "stuck" in the main bracket once again. She deserves to make it out, being a strong member of the NN for such a long period... it's just not right! And after this contest she may never have the chance to be the strongest female character once again, because after TP I can see both Zelda and Ganondorf laying the smack down on a bunch of characters (possibly even NN'ers) even without rSFF working in either of their favors.
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Upon having Rosie O'Donnell corner him in the forest, the pizza delivery man knew how a Goomba felt when Mario got a star. ~ SSJ3 Popo
wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:13:01 PM | message detail
We use Smurf Stats to actually prove things? I thought they were used to justify stupid fanboyish contest picks!
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:14:07 PM | message detail
Who is this Smurf and what are the lol Smurf stats?

As ridiculous as they may be, I'm sure they contain thrice the credibility of the random trash some of the users throw out here and claim them to be "statistics".

OMG PEOPLE LIKE KHII, BOOST, BOOST I SAY!
PEOPLE WILL VISIT THE SITE BEFORE A GAME IS RELEASED, HYPE, HYPE I SAY
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2006 1:14:21 PM | message detail
I doubt Samus will lose to anyone in the contest before the match with the Male bracket leader, as long as CJayC doesn't give her a ZSS pic again.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/7/2006 1:14:33 PM | message detail
They're baseless assumptions that count for nothing whatsoever.

Actually, they're assumptions with logically founded bases that count for more than the actual statistics do.

We use Smurf Stats to actually prove things? I thought they were used to justify stupid fanboyish contest picks!

Heh, he still did a little bit of work in creating them. Smurf knows what he's talking about, he just never tells the truth.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:14:51 PM | message detail
Where can I view the smurf stats? I'm sure they predicted this match accurately.
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
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wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:14:55 PM | message detail
Oh Smurf you silly goose!

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Osfan | Posted 11/7/2006 1:15:51 PM | message detail
Anyone care to explain a three update stall on Samus I mean i didnt think stalls would happen again til at leats the 18:00 mark...
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:15:59 PM | message detail
20,000 Samus fanboys decieded not to vote for her because her pic was from Smash Bros. You call that logic?

Please, get off my internet.
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
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Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:16:39 PM | message detail
The 3 update stall can be explained with a simple emoticon.

n_n

Got it memorized?
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
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Luis_Sera89 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:17:30 PM | message detail
...
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Terrible demon. Ouch...
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/7/2006 1:18:35 PM | message detail
I doubt Samus will lose to anyone in the contest before the match with the Male bracket leader, as long as CJayC doesn't give her a ZSS pic again.

Speaking of multiple match pictures, it would've been fascinating to see the percentages based on picture in the 2k4 Final Four. It's the only time we've seen suitless Samus, and I think it's possible that MM's winning match picture hurt him just a little.

20,000 Samus fanboys decieded not to vote for her because her pic was from Smash Bros. You call that logic?

No, 20,000 people who liked Tifa and liked Samus a little more because her power suit looked so ****ing cool voted for Tifa instead. The Samus fanboys are why Samus is winning the match.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:18:37 PM | message detail
Ack! GameFOX stopped working for a second! Bad! BAD!!
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CB5 Points: 91/96, Current Oracle placement: 22/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII, Children of Mana
wavedash101 | Posted 11/7/2006 1:19:19 PM | message detail
The 3 update stall can be explained with a simple emoticon.

n_n

Got it memorized?


Where have I seen this before...>_>

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:19:30 PM | message detail
Tell me who these supposed 20,000 "shiny picture" fanboys are and I'll have them exterminated with immediate effect.
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
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With Teeth | Posted 11/7/2006 1:19:48 PM | message detail
...
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DS Gamer XVII in purgatory.
Criona | Posted 11/7/2006 1:20:04 PM | message detail

Where have I seen this before...>_>


Zylo the wolf. He posted it a few pages back. Right before Tifa got an irregular spike.

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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
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