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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 417

Qwaar | Posted 11/7/2006 5:41:42 AM | message detail
This poll proves the Final Fantasy bias on this site is getting to levels of insanity. I haven't even heard of Tifa and I find she's suddenly beating freaking Samus Aran!
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RIP Eddie Guerrero
1967-2005
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 5:42:06 AM | message detail
Samus who?
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caps
transience | Posted 11/7/2006 5:44:19 AM | message detail
well, it's official:

Snake / Mega Man
Sonic / Crono
Samus (Tifa?) / Zelda
Male Final
Final
Battle Royale

best. week. ever.
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xyzzy
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/7/2006 5:44:28 AM | message detail
this is just embarassing. this would outrank Magus on the all-time choke list.

Only if Samus actually loses, which isn't looking all that likely at this point.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
zwong1 | Posted 11/7/2006 5:45:41 AM | message detail
Samus is going to take the lead and never look back again.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/7/2006 5:47:28 AM | message detail
I sense that Tifa will spike in the next update n_n
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Supporter of Megaman and Sonic
janembaman | Posted 11/7/2006 5:48:26 AM | message detail
Samus is going to take the lead and never look back again.
Still,Tifa had the lead for 2 and half hours
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laff
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 5:50:48 AM | message detail
I have to say even though the contest didn't have tons of unbelievable upsets...

this is definitely the most exciting end of a contest ever. 4 Square characters doing absolutely amazing on Noble Nine, and now a whole week of totally toss-up matches...

And who knows, with all these Square characters doing so well on NN...maybe Yuna can surprise against a non-NN. (Okay, so Zelda's gonna break it, but it hasn't happened just yet!)

It's too bad Samus is winning now. She sucks.
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caps
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/7/2006 5:50:53 AM | message detail
I doubt anyone can top Samus choke. She almost had a 900 lead, then she let Tifa get a 200 lead.
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Supporter of Megaman and Sonic
Who Cares? | Posted 11/7/2006 5:51:29 AM | message detail
OH MY FREAKING GOODNESS! So Tifa joins Ryu as the only Non-NN members to hold a significant lead over a Noble Niner.

Please, PLEEEEEEEEASE Ceej, GIVE HER ANOTHER ZERO SUIT PIC NEXT ROUND! :)
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Failed! She should've stayed away from the summoner!
*Go play Tales of the Abyss*
zwong1 | Posted 11/7/2006 5:52:07 AM | message detail
Tifa is just downright impressive, I think i will give the star of the contest to her.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
janembaman | Posted 11/7/2006 5:55:09 AM | message detail
*very happy about his Crono>Samus pick*
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laff
transience | Posted 11/7/2006 5:56:16 AM | message detail
well, this could be three things:

- the picture. funny how no one was really calling for it to be a significant problem until Samus started sucking ass. that tells me it's probably a minor factor. (if it's a serious factor though, I'd question why Snake looks stronger this year - though to be fair, we really don't have a good read on him yet.)

- FF12. maybe it just took some time for the game to kick in? I don't know, I'm making things up here. but if a huge Square influx is happening, Crono > main bracket, baby. and Cloud > Link? well, that's still pushing it for me, but whatever.

- Samus just sucks. sorry, I'm not buying Tifa being stronger than Sonic now. this has to be Samus proving she's not all that great this year. I'd put her on the same level as the rest of the NN in this contest if I had to guess.
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xyzzy
zwong1 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:01:13 AM | message detail
Tifa last year was projected to break 40% on Samus.

Assuming these factors gave her some boost.
Advent Children +2%
Kingdom Heart 2 +1.5%
Final Fantasy 12(Influx of people loving ff coming here) +2.5%
Bad Samus picture +1%
Samus was over-adjusted last year +1 or 2%

Tifa doing very well on Samus won't be hard to imagine.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/7/2006 6:02:47 AM | message detail
Sweet Tifa won an update!
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Supporter of Megaman and Sonic
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 6:03:05 AM | message detail
Call me biased, but 69% on Rikku, and 80% on Ada Wong doesn't seem like a weaker Samus to me. I mean, Jade could be weaker than Tanner, but a quadrupling on someone who tripled someone? Tifa's doing nearly 20% better than Rikku. (*sniff*)

The reason I think this is a bigger factor than Snake...Snake is a man, and whether he looks like an actual man or a blob-like man, it's him. But Samus is going from badass robot to...blondie. It's quite a dramatic change, and judging form how much Metroid sucks in the contests, I wouldn't be surprised if hardly anyone got to the end of the games to see this Samus. (I assume that's where you see her, at the end.)

Anyway, just what I think. Not saying it's right, just throwing some ideas out there.
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caps
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:03:13 AM | message detail
....this match can only mean one thing.

HOLY SAMUS UNDERRATION, BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHA

lol wate

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
xp1337 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:03:16 AM | message detail
Tifa comeback!

>_>
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (086/096) Samus v Tifa
Osfan | Posted 11/7/2006 6:04:02 AM | message detail
Looks like Tofa's not done yet! LOL i was just looking through the gurus and am i right in seeing one tifa pick that is already eliminated, not sure if i counted right...
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/7/2006 6:04:55 AM | message detail
WTF? Hm, I kind of hope Tifa wins so that MM>main bracket looks even more possible (going from 0% odds to 3% odds sounds good).

So, how bout that KH2 factor+Zero suit factor.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Dark115 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:06:06 AM | message detail
Oh man I wake up to this? Screw my bracket, go Tifa
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Current Content Score: 92/96
My Collection: http://club.ign.com/b/list/custom?lid=100018&owner=Dark115.&mode=vown
Phediuk | Posted 11/7/2006 6:07:59 AM | message detail
Well, haven't said anything in here pretty much the whole contest, but today I thought I might throw in...

LOL SAMUS
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
transience | Posted 11/7/2006 6:08:00 AM | message detail
I agree with you partystar, but it shouldn't take a comfortable 57-58% win to a 50-50 match. it just seems like we're rationalizing after the fact.

I'm going to laugh when Tifa ends up #2 in the stats behind Samus!!!

anyway, this morning vote will come in a quick burst, kind of like the afterschool vote. once people are in school, I could see Tifa going back to winning updates, even if just by a little. she may make this 50/50 again before the afterschool vote comes, where she's almost definitely going to get overwhelmed.
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xyzzy
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/7/2006 6:09:08 AM | message detail
Some people (like me) get election day off from school though, so maybe after-school vote won't be so huge of a swing.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
transience | Posted 11/7/2006 6:09:47 AM | message detail
JUST WAIT UNTIL THE VOTERS GET HOME
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xyzzy
xp1337 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:10:41 AM | message detail
Samus totally has the Democrat vote!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (086/096) Samus v Tifa
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/7/2006 6:10:52 AM | message detail
Yeah, I have school off today too.
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caps
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/7/2006 6:10:56 AM | message detail
I would surprised if Tifa got defeated by the afterschool vote considering how every other character from KHII has done with the afterschool vote.
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Supporter of Megaman and Sonic
transience | Posted 11/7/2006 6:11:08 AM | message detail
if that's so, Samus is so screwed
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xyzzy
Osfan | Posted 11/7/2006 6:11:11 AM | message detail
There is no afterschool vote today its election day in the states so the 3-7 vote that comes from American afterschool will likely be scattered throughout the day. Unless the other countries afterschool starts at the same time? Either way Samus has to win the overall day vote and escape the night vote which we all know whre the night vote is going
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
transience | Posted 11/7/2006 6:11:52 AM | message detail
Tifa lost the day vote to a MGS character. Samus won it vs. Rikku, a character who's pretty good with it. if Tifa won it, it would be a complete shock to me.
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xyzzy
Osfan | Posted 11/7/2006 6:13:21 AM | message detail
Tifa doesnt have to win the day vote but merely needs to survive the day vote...
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
transience | Posted 11/7/2006 6:14:24 AM | message detail
plus the morning vote is usually a hint of what's to come with the day vote. Samus is flat out dominating Tifa right now.
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xyzzy
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/7/2006 6:15:03 AM | message detail
I believe we have different opinions there Tranny, losing 1% during the whole day when the lead is over 70% us hardly losing the dayvote.

But yeah, Samus will most likely win.
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Supporter of Megaman and Sonic
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:15:04 AM | message detail
I'm still not going to attribute this to a massive KH2 boost either, that just makes Peach/Jill way too friggin' strong. It's possible she boosted a small amount with other factors thrown in however.

Possibilities: Samus is not underrated at all last year, and in fact is overrated, as she's projected to win with only 51%+ using unadjusted numbers. However, that completely messes up Ganon, and Auron this year, because they would have needed huge ass boosts, Auron one the size of HaRR's chin. I don't buy this one.

The picture. Yeah, you're all going to gangbang me for saying this probably, just because I'm EC and am a Samus supporter, but it honestly makes the most sense. When the hell has Samus ever looked like that? Oh right, in a SSBB trailer. It's extremely possible people just aren't connecting the name and the person. It's not as if when you're playing through the Metroid games, the name Samus is popping up all over the place, and that looks absolutely nothing like the Samus we all know and love.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
transience | Posted 11/7/2006 6:16:44 AM | message detail
in Zero Mission, too!
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xyzzy
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:17:43 AM | message detail
Tifa lost the day vote to a MGS character. Samus won it vs. Rikku, a character who's pretty good with it. if Tifa won it, it would be a complete shock to me.

While true... I don't think this is the same Samus we're seeing right now, so I don't know how well trends are going to hold up. If Samus ends up holding on to win, and faces Zelda with a normal Samus picture, I expect her to beat Zelda a lot harder than this, and I'd still consider taking Zelda > Tifa, though this match certainly scares me about it. I can honestly see people that even know Samus for her name, seeing this picture and saying "hmm.. maybe it's just another Samus" *votes tifa*

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/7/2006 6:20:08 AM | message detail
But Samus's helmet is in the background, how can anyone think there's another Samus Aran?
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Supporter of Megaman and Sonic
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:20:10 AM | message detail
is popping up all over the place = isn't popping up all over the place.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
transience | Posted 11/7/2006 6:20:25 AM | message detail
I agree with you EC, I just don't think we're looking at a candidate for WORST PICTURE EVER here. if you're gonna call worst picture ever, you need to say so BEFORE the unexpected result. I think it's possible this is all picture, but I'd rather be safe and just say that Samus is sucking.
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xyzzy
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:20:49 AM | message detail
But Samus's helmet is in the background, how can anyone think there's another Samus Aran?

That's actually her ship...

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
transience | Posted 11/7/2006 6:21:22 AM | message detail
oh and if I had to guess, this will look a lot better come the end of the match. a 52-53% finish, while bad, looks a lot better than Tifa leading for a couple of hours. I am so glad I was asleep for that!
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xyzzy
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/7/2006 6:21:24 AM | message detail
Whoopsie...... >_>
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Supporter of Megaman and Sonic
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:24:26 AM | message detail
I honestly didn't know whether Samus would overperform or underperform with the picture, but I didn't think she'd be normal, so I just shut my mouth. Either way, I certainly didn't expect it to like this. Hell, I actually love this match picture, think it's great, but that still doesn't mean it can be hurting her. I don't know why so many people have trouble with others justifying results after seeing them, as if they can never have been wrong in the past and form new opinions on it after. If it's all Tifa, Jill and Peach are nauseatingly strong (actually just Peach, yeah I supported her >_>), and if it's all Samus being overrated, well nothing else tied to her lines up at all. The only thing left to blame is the picture.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:38:42 AM | message detail
If Tifa wins this match I'm going to hang myself.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Lady Ashe | Posted 11/7/2006 6:39:12 AM | message detail
The kiddies are off to school now, which is why Tifa just won that update.
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
FourthDeus | Posted 11/7/2006 6:39:30 AM | message detail
And Tifa goes back to cutting down the lead.

IT'S NICE!
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
janembaman | Posted 11/7/2006 6:41:44 AM | message detail
Whenever a Nintendo character is in trouble,I can say "After-School vote will fix it"
But now it's against FFVII...who will take it?
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laff
Tediz247 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:42:08 AM | message detail
Oh, God. I was afraid of a Tifa overperformance, but not like this. At least she's making The Boss and Sheena look really good, though. One thing I don't get though. I don't see why all of a sudden Samus is grossly overrated when every other match has pointed to, if anything, Samus being underadjusted. Auron, Ganondorf, and Yuna have all looked really good. This match makes absolutely no sense. Hell, this contest makes absolutely no sense.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
xp1337 | Posted 11/7/2006 6:43:09 AM | message detail
This match makes absolutely no sense. Hell, this contest makes absolutely no sense.

If Samus lives on Endor you must acquit!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (086/096) Samus v Tifa