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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 416

HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 2:47:06 PM | message detail
I'll take that as being an unpopular sentiment. >_>

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 2:48:13 PM | message detail
Well, at least Alucard will still just about make mid-carder rank with this match >_>
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 2:49:03 PM | message detail
Which makes Sora look good, and MM > Snake a lock. SUCK IT KH HAW HAW

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/6/2006 2:49:44 PM | message detail
Well, at least Alucard will still just about make mid-carder rank with this match >_>

Of course, how stupid we were! Auron doing this good was all a part of the plan.
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Supporter of Megaman and Sonic
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/6/2006 2:58:16 PM | message detail
I had Sub at 25% before the Contest, and MC a couple of percent higher (not as low as his 2003 value, but below his 2005 one). Of course that changed once Sub beat MC.

Ah. Well, that makes sense then. Carry on.
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"Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 2:59:05 PM | message detail
Auron has gone up .35% in the last hour... I'm thinking he's gonna breeze by 45%, even with the inevitable slowdown.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
HaRRicH | Posted 11/6/2006 3:00:28 PM | message detail
Ya know, Auron's well on his way to outdo Vincent against Crono...and none of the reasons that I once used to justify Vincent over-performing against Crono can apply to Auron:

1) FF7 > CT -- but CT > FFX or KH2.
2) FF:AC leaked right before Vincent/Crono -- Auron has nothing to do with FF:AC, nor does he have any very-recent release.
3) Vincent does better against other Square characters than other opponents due to his secret status -- Auron is crucial in FFx and mandatory in a level for KH2, so that doesn't apply.

About the only thing Auron has MORE on Crono than Vincent is that Auron is a much newer character than Vincent or especially Crono...and, though that may matter more in latter years once more systems hit, right now I can't imagine that having any worthwhile effect by itself.


I may take Auron > Squall yet...man...damn this hypothetical Squall/Auron match!
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 3:01:39 PM | message detail
Honestly, Crono/Vincent would be a much closer match today. DoC is looking to have done a bit more for him than previously expected.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/6/2006 3:02:18 PM | message detail
Oh man, this is extremely impressive. Even still, it's very hard for me to believe that Auron can suddenly beat Ganondorf as easily as this match makes it seem.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 3:03:55 PM | message detail
Well, there's no way Auron beats Vincent, in my opinion, which in turn makes Sonic's chances look even better. But Ganon/Auron is suddenly looking like an interesting match again...
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 3:04:25 PM | message detail
I said I took back my 55% hope back when he wasn't doing all that good but now...

If he can continue at this rate, he'll have surpassed 55% by 8:30.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Draco1214 | Posted 11/6/2006 3:06:10 PM | message detail
I really have no idea what to make of this match. Looks like Crono/Sonic will be interesting after all.
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Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/6/2006 3:09:54 PM | message detail
Another win for Auron
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Supporter of Megaman and Sonic
trannyscience | Posted 11/6/2006 3:10:38 PM | message detail
hmm, this match is really interesting. this has to be all Auron, because I refuse to put Bowser down to Ryu's level after the beating he put on him. Bowser would make short work of the upper midcarders in this contest.

I'll bring up an old point - pre-KH, who would you take to win, Squall or Auron? you can argue that FF10 = FF8 on this site, so if KH did for Auron what it did for Squall I could see them being roughly equal at this point. the only problem I have with this is that I didn't expect Sub-Zero to be so high - I had him pegged at about 27% (higher than others, but still not as high as he's looking to be here).

so in short, nothing to worry about for Crono. Sonic can still beat him, but he's not pulling a Mega Man here. I cannot wait for the next round because we're getting two awesome matches back to back. it'll also put an end to some of the inane arguments we're seeing in here.

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zizzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 3:13:42 PM | message detail
Honestly, this is the most unpredictability we've had so late in this contest in a long, long time. It's great. Crono is still deservedly the favorite, but he can lose to Sonic or Snake. Mega Man...I just have doubts about his ability to beat Crono. He can still beat Snake, sure, but the finals...I don't have much faith in him at this point. Besides, I said I'd take Sonic > Mega Man this year, so if Crono beats Sonic, he beats Mega Man.

So, in short, Snake needs to win to make the male bracket finals interesting!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26
trannyscience | Posted 11/6/2006 3:17:11 PM | message detail
the main reason is because of the good bracket placement for the noble nine. none of them are running into Super Mario and no one's going to get SFF'd badly.

I've still got Crono winning next round, but I won't be too surprised if Sonic pulls it off. I'd almost be amazed if he didn't outdo Mega Man's percentage last year. and Snake is the true wildcard in this contest, I'll agree that him beating Mega Man makes for a more interesting round 5.
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zizzy
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/6/2006 3:18:20 PM | message detail
I take this match to mean Crono is just weird. No way in hell Auron is legitimately this strong.

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Can't think of a good sig.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 3:18:40 PM | message detail
...You know, my bracket curse might STILL come through this year. I have Sonic winning the male bracket. He beats Crono, but then loses to Snake.

Hmmm...Is that how it works?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26
Larbeight | Posted 11/6/2006 3:19:18 PM | message detail
Hopefully the male bracket winner wont be from Nintendo or Square to avoid SFF in the battle royal.
Which pretty much means that it'll have to be Sonic or Snake.
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~Larbeight~. The finest mind of his generation.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 3:19:59 PM | message detail
The Battle Royale is going to turn out weird no matter who's in it
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/6/2006 3:20:04 PM | message detail
The male bracket winner can't be from Nintendo. Luigi and Yoshi lost.
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Supporter of Megaman and Sonic
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 3:20:05 PM | message detail
On the contrary, we've only had one potentially dubious match concerning Crono before this one (that was his fault anyway, Master Chief doesn't count in that regard), and that was his match with Vincent last year. If anything, Auron's practically validating it as a normal matchup.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26
trannyscience | Posted 11/6/2006 3:22:15 PM | message detail
I have no problem with Auron being this strong - either Vincent overperformed on him in a similar way due to being newer and DOC gave him a huge boost or this performance is legit. a lot of people thought Auron was about this strong last year actually.
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zizzy
Larbeight | Posted 11/6/2006 3:24:12 PM | message detail
If Crono is SFFing Auron here too, doesn't that make Crono look really bad?
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~Larbeight~. The finest mind of his generation.
nobleIII | Posted 11/6/2006 3:25:30 PM | message detail
Wow. Auron is about to pass Vincent o.o last year.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 3:26:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, I know we thought DoC wouldn't do very much for Vincent because of its poor reception, but still we can't ignore the fact that an optional character got his own game and finally got his story fleshed out a bit. He got his own game for a reason: He's that popular.

a lot of people thought Auron was about this strong last year actually.

...Which was my reasoning for Vincent > Ganondorf! I expected such a performance from Auron against the elites like Crono than what he did against Ganon. Heck, he's not going to be very far from that number in the end, actually.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 3:27:55 PM | message detail
I had Auron over Ganondorf last year.

Bleh. Well, at least Auron eventually got there...
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Janus5000 | Posted 11/6/2006 3:28:49 PM | message detail
...And in winning that update, Auron just surpassed Vincent's performance last year.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
WarThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2006 3:29:32 PM | message detail
Hmm...What % do you think Crono needs to have at 8 AM in order to beat Sonic?
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 3:30:38 PM | message detail
The percentage is irrelevant. It's the lead. Crono's day vote has deteriorated into utter crap this contest, so if he's not comfortably ahead come daybreak, Sonic's got a shot.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26
Draco1214 | Posted 11/6/2006 3:30:46 PM | message detail
If Crono passes the point of no return (2000+ vote lead) by 8 AM, I'd say he wins.
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Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003
WarThaNemesis | Posted 11/6/2006 3:31:21 PM | message detail
I'm just assuming that the vote totals remain the same throughout, and % is easier to work with than votes.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 3:34:35 PM | message detail
8 AM isn't a good time marker, since sonic will likely be chipping away at the lead at that moment
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
nobleIII | Posted 11/6/2006 3:34:51 PM | message detail
For the record, when Auron breaks 45%, this will be the first contest non N9 have broken 45% on Crono and MM.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/6/2006 3:37:52 PM | message detail
Assuming Auron finishes with 45.00%, how badly would Crono have to beat Sonic for Vincent and Auron to be statistical equals?
BDawg | Posted 11/6/2006 3:38:41 PM | message detail
May I throw out that Crono's every worsening day vote is a sign that his core is still strong but he's not drawing casuals? I mean with the ever increasing vote totals perhaps Crono is getting the same votes he ever did but the new voters aren't so taken with Chrono Trigger. Well, it will come down to Sonic/Crono, if Crono wins anyway I figure the male bracket is his and he'll just remain equally popular for all eternity. He is a time traveler after all...
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Should I start running now?
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 11/6/2006 3:39:14 PM | message detail
Samus vs. Tifa pic is up .. Sorry if it's old ..

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Eagerly awaiting Final Fantasy XII!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 3:40:14 PM | message detail
Assuming Auron finishes with 45.00%, how badly would Crono have to beat Sonic for Vincent and Auron to be statistical equals?

Almost 53% on the dot
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
NoDiceCurt | Posted 11/6/2006 3:40:41 PM | message detail
Auron has no chance of being Vincent's statistical equal this year.

Sonic is going to beat Crono anyway. I'm guessing with at least 52% of the vote.
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Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be.
-The biggest Sonic fan ever.-
Draco1214 | Posted 11/6/2006 3:40:58 PM | message detail
Well, people call for Crono dropping every year but it never happens. His game has been out for over a decade, yet he doesn't budge. If Sonic does win, it won't be because of a Crono drop.
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Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 3:41:14 PM | message detail
Although Auron will probably finish higher. Maybe even 45.5%. In which case Crono would only need 52.5
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Janus5000 | Posted 11/6/2006 3:44:35 PM | message detail
...You know, I just realized that these two characters are the last ones in the main tournament who use a sword as their main weapon.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 3:47:30 PM | message detail
Exactly. I'm not calling for Sonic to win because of Crono dropping. Honestly, Auron doing this well makes Sonic's win over Vincent look better. Of course, if the Blue Blur wins, it'll be close because I can't fathom Vincent being over Crono now.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 3:51:05 PM | message detail
...You know, I just realized that these two characters are the last ones in the main tournament who use a sword as their main weapon.

...And Crono's sword isn't showing! There's the problem!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26
Big Bob | Posted 11/6/2006 3:57:57 PM | message detail
I hope Sonic gets a SS pic for the match against Crono, stealing the DBZ vote away from him.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 4:03:19 PM | message detail
Sonic's going to have the picture advantage anyway. Super Sonic would just be overkill.

...So, in other words, I'm all for it!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26
Megaman703 | Posted 11/6/2006 4:04:49 PM | message detail
Oh my...I checked my bracket, and found I have Yuna over Zelda.

What was I thinking?!
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"Jugger rebooted... Blue screen of death!"
"Victory Impossible, troops overwhelmed, Jugger must ctrl+alt+delete."
Draco1214 | Posted 11/6/2006 4:07:13 PM | message detail
I wonder how strong Bowser, Yoshi, and Luigi are in relation to each other. That could help us predict the winner of the male bracket.
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Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 4:07:50 PM | message detail
Well, I posted a few "What if?" scenarios for that. Just draw your conclusions from there.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/6/2006 4:15:10 PM | message detail
I think it would be great if Sonic beat Crono with 52% and then Ganon was actually at Sonic's 2k5 level and I WAS SO RIGHT ALL ALONG !!!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."