GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 416
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 10:43:08 AM | message detail |
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Wouldn't that mean assuming a constant Zero too? I think that would
mean that Luigi beats Yoshi with 50.23, not the other way around. Well, not that it matters. It still means they're just 50-50. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| BeTheMan | Posted 11/6/2006 10:54:22 AM | message detail |
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Time for some fun with X-Stats! For the purpose of this calculation,
I'm keeping Sonic and Crono constant in relation to where they were in
2k5, Samus constant in relation to where she was in 2k4, and I'm
sticking Samus at roughly 39% on Link, and presuming that G-dorf did
NOT get SFF'd last year; essentially, everything that follows is a load of crap, and shouldn't be taken too seriously. Scenario: Auron finishes at 44.00% Since Sonic was worth 48.29% on Crono last year, Vincent projects out to 46.27% on Crono today, which gives Vincent a 1.65% gain on Crono from 2k5 to 2k6. If Auron finishes at 44.00%, Auron's worth 47.55% on Vincent this year. Since Ganondorf finished at 47.41% on Vincent, Auron is now projected to beat Ganondorf 50.15% - 49.85%, which gives Auron a 5.05% gain on Ganondorf from 2k5 to 2k6. Now, if Auron made a significant gain based on KH2, Sora should be able to do the same...but we have to jump back to 2k4 for a semi-reliable Sora figure to work off of, when he finished with 34.15% on Samus. If Sora and Auron got identical boosts KH2 boosts, then Sora would jump up 4.07% on Samus...Sora might deserve more credit for being the lead, but then again, it's freaking Sora. Anyway, a 4.07% gain on Samus would boost Sora up to 38.22% on Samus today. Since Sora got 45.72% on Mega Man, that would make Mega Man worth 41.79% on Samus...which is a somewhat interesting figure, because if we hold Ryu and Rikku constant from 2k5 to 2k6, then MM comes out to 41.71% on Samus...so let's just split the difference and put MM at 41.75% on Samus, k? Now, keeping that in mind, if Sonic stayed constant to where he was on Samus in 2k4 (42.49%), then Sonic/MM projects as a 50.87% win for Sonic today... If we hold ALL of that to be true (ha ha ha ha ha)...here are your X-Stats! Projected figures for everyone listed above: Samus - 39.00% Crono - 34.31% Sonic - 33.14% Mega Man - 32.56% Vincent - 31.75% Auron - 30.19% Ganondorf - 30.10% Sora - 29.77% BONUS figures: Ryu - 27.32% Luigi - 26.39% Sub-Zero - 24.38% Rikku - 24.18% Master Chief - 23.91% Alucard - 21.50% Gordon Freeman - 21.48% Phoenix Wright - 17.96% Tingle - 14.52% CATS - 12.76% Hmm...some of those numbers seem a bit low, don't they? Which leads me to my grand conclusion... (DUN DUN DUN)the relationships between the Noble Nine members aren't constant! Okay, weak, I know. Let's see...how about... (DUN DUN DUN) Link is a beast! ...Alright, one more try... (DUN DUN DUN) lol Master Chief! *shrug* I'll fiddle more later. --- ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO Z1mZum FOR ROCKING THE GURU WORLD |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 11:30:00 AM | message detail |
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Looking at the match, Auron actually did no better in the morning than
he did at night. It was equal there. This match actually would have
been static in percentage if Crono didn't have such a beastly first 2
hours for some reason --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| FourthDeus | Posted 11/6/2006 11:40:51 AM | message detail |
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It's hilarious how close Auron is getting to matching Vincent's performance against Crono last year. --- 5/18/05 Never forget. Never forgive. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 11:42:31 AM | message detail |
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Not after Crono wins the after-school vote! --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| FourthDeus | Posted 11/6/2006 11:43:14 AM | message detail |
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When has Crono won the afterschool vote this contest? --- 5/18/05 Never forget. Never forgive. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2006 11:46:49 AM | message detail |
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That actually follows Crono/Vincent pretty well, where Crono started
above 59%, and fell to a minimum of 54.73% at 7:40 Eastern, and then
pretty much stayed static for the rest of the day. That match started
at 3 Eastern of course, by which time Auron was already cutting into
the percentage, so Crono never really got a chance against Vincent to
dominate enough to enable him to bleed percentage all day later.
Putting those hours at the end of the match makes them far less
visible, but Crono actually outright won the last 3 hours against
Mario, something he was never able to do with the first night vote.
Vincent's horrible 1st hour vote would mask this, of course. --- "........!" ~Magus |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 11:47:16 AM | message detail |
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I was being facetious. But in all seriousness, if Auron couldn't improve at all in the morning, it's not ridiculous to think that he won't gain a notable advantage after-school either. Well, he still should but, I'm thinking about taking back my previous prediction of Auron reaching 45%. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| creativename | Posted 11/6/2006 12:38:47 PM | message detail |
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Ironic that if Master Chief had beat barely beat Sub-Zero, most people
in this topic (other than me and maybe a few others) would be vocally
laughing right now about how Sub-Zero was massively overrated due to
Master Chief overperforming on Auron by getting 40%. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 11/6/2006 12:39:38 PM | message detail |
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Other thoughts: *I think Luigi might have been SFFed a bit (icon/old-school/generational/whatever overlap). I suspected that could happen but didn't think it would. However this is of course unproven and shaky. *The best argument for Mega Man not decreasing is his performance on Ryu. As others have said, it was the best anyone has done on Ryu outside of last year - better than what Samus, Snake, and Sonic have done. It's very possible that Ryu didn't rebound much and Mega Man has declined substantially, but I think Ryu simply rebounding is much more likely. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/6/2006 12:47:24 PM | message detail |
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Ironic that if Master Chief had beat barely beat Sub-Zero, most
people in this topic (other than me and maybe a few others) would be
vocally laughing right now about how Sub-Zero was massively overrated
due to Master Chief overperforming on Auron by getting 40%. I've had that thought since before Auron/Sub-Zero...funny how that goes. Even then, we still got remarks that made MK:A seem to have a much bigger effect on Sub-Zero than SMS did for Mario...so we still heard plenty of BS on that issue, heh. --- Diddy did it. Diddy did it. DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/6/2006 12:51:22 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and just curious, would anybody take Sub-Zero in a rematch against
MC next year? With the new systems out and the 360 being out for
another year, not to mention Halo 3 and the Halo movie will either be
out or soon to be out (I don't know their schedules right now), not to
mention the match was already close...yikes. Feel free to mention that
it depends on if Sub-Zero gets a new release just before the match or
not if you feel like that would be a deciding factor. --- Diddy did it. Diddy did it. DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?! |
| Draco1214 | Posted 11/6/2006 12:53:26 PM | message detail |
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I think the Halo movie was cancelled indefinitely. Depends on whether or not Halo 3 is out by then, really. --- Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003 |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 1:03:35 PM | message detail |
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Crono's % from 3 AM to 6 AM(night vote) ~55 Crono's % from 7 AM to 10 AM(morning vote) ~55 Crono's % from 3 PM to 4 PM(beginning of after-school vote) ~54 Geez, talk about consistent. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2006 1:10:10 PM | message detail |
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I remember when people were debating what the strongest non-FF7 FF
character was. And people would argue between Squall and Auron. Well, I
think Auron is back in contention. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 1:18:58 PM | message detail |
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No, I meant going through Luigi/Zero/Hayabusa and Yoshi/Dante/Hayabusa Well, I gave you constant Hayabusa and extrapolated Yoshi from there and took Luigi based on Sonic 2005. Are you wanting me to extrapolate Hayabusa based on Zero from Luigi, or boost Luigi assuming Zero/Hayabusa remains proportional? If so, Luigi is at 34.66% on BL and beats a Yoshi extrapolated through constant Hayabusa with 50.17%. Of course, it puts Sonic a little under 44% on BL, so that works for me! Though I'm guessing people would assume an overperformance on Sonic's part if that were the case. Oh, and if we assume that Luigi is the constant one from 2005 and not Sonic, a constant Crono wins with 50.67%. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26 |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 1:20:21 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and Auron is now officially equal to Ganondorf based on Vincent
through 2005 Sonic, for what it's worth. Is KHII worth that much for a
cameo (we've seen it work wonders for Sora and Riku so far) or is
it...a sign for a Blue Blur victory?! --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26 |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/6/2006 1:21:05 PM | message detail |
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Go go Sonic! --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 1:22:28 PM | message detail |
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Now on a less enthusiastic note, the conclusions being drawn in this topic are absolutely ridiculous. EC is the biggest particular offender, because aside from his 'normal' inability to accept KH2F that tends to border on psychosis or accept that Samus might not be worth 55% on Mario, he's flip-flopping more than Heroic Mario after a new game release. How much did Sora need in order to make Mega Man susceptible to upsets from a slew of potential Noble Nine breakers -- not just Snake -- according to him? 46% (oh heavens, he only got 45.72). How much did Snake need to be favored against Mega Man? 57.5% (oh heavens, he only got 57.16). I actually said Samus' underratedness isn't as much as I thought it initially was, and Samus is probably equal to Mario 2K5, I also said I see Snake/MM going 50/50, after the previous numbers I threw out, and MM/Snake projections were slightly above what I said it would take for Snake to be the favorite, which means instead of being the favorite, I have them being even. How is this ridiculous at all? --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 1:25:06 PM | message detail |
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By the way, if Auron finishes with 44%, Ganondorf wins with 51.57% now
if Sonic = Crono. Basically, if Crono beats Sonic with more than said
percentage, Auron > Ganondorf now. Looking forward to these Elite Eight matchups! Everything seems to indicate that both should be close. Doesn't necessarily mean they will, but it's looking to be good. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/6/2006 1:37:31 PM | message detail |
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Bleh, I knew cries of Sonic > Crono were coming when I saw the results. I, like others, am also surprised at how strong this makes Sub-Zero looked. Never would have pegged him as an upper-midcarder...wow. Hmm, I'm tempted to call this all Auron, cause a Crono drop makes Bowser look horrible. If Auron = Vincent 2005, that means he's boosted about 3-4%, and he was possibly underrated as well. Doesn't really affect Sonic and Vincent then, but one could make a case for Sonic looking pretty good now. --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Crono vs. Auron - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Auron (84/92) |
| The_Ocelot | Posted 11/6/2006 1:41:07 PM | message detail |
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So,uh, how is Crono>Samus lookin'? --- Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101 |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 1:42:40 PM | message detail |
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I, like others, am also surprised at how strong this makes Sub-Zero
looked. Never would have pegged him as an upper-midcarder...wow. I've only said this from the beginning! But nooooo! Sub-Zero won't be any stronger than Scorpion because they're nothing but palette swaps, even though Ryu and Ken are more similar than they are! Fans of one are almost guaranteed to be fans of the other! ...Okay, maybe I didn't expect Subby to be quite THIS strong, but to be comfortably above Scorpion isn't surprising to me. If Auron = Vincent 2005, that means he's boosted about 3-4%, and he was possibly underrated as well. But by how much? The more he was underrated, the better Sonic looks! --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26 |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 1:42:51 PM | message detail |
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I think this is actually a combo of the three things I mentioned
earlier. Underrated by about 2% last year thanks to Samus. Crono
dropping the tiniest of bits 1%, and Auron increasing about 1% on his
own. Sure that's pretty much pure speculation, the only thing I'm confident about is Samus being underrated by 1.5-2%, other than that, the other figures are just there to try and make sense of it. --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 1:43:48 PM | message detail |
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Underrated by 2%? Works for Sonic! --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26 |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/6/2006 1:45:10 PM | message detail |
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I'm all for this underrated talk! --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 1:47:20 PM | message detail |
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Anyone have a buttplug for that last post though? KH is gonna come in here and try to ram something up there, I just know it. --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/6/2006 1:48:43 PM | message detail |
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Nah, I'll just let him rip you. It's more fun that way! --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 6: Han Solo - W, 28-26 |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 1:49:24 PM | message detail |
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Rip me while having no idea what he's talking about is more like it!
The only thing in that last post of his that was correct was me not
buying KH2F. --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/6/2006 1:52:17 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, I had 25% as a ceiling for Sub, which is safely above Scorp. He's looking to end way above that. Ok then, Auron is underrated enough for Sonic not to pass up Crono, but end up slightly below him! --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Crono vs. Auron - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Auron (84/92) |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 1:53:27 PM | message detail |
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I was thinking 25% for Sub too... but then again that's only 1% above where I think Scorp is. (lol 2k4) --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/6/2006 1:55:11 PM | message detail |
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Auron is still gaining 0.03% percent every 5 minutes. He has 7 hours to
get to 45%, which means that Crono can't do better on Auron (an
obviously stronger Auron) than Ganondorf! Did KH2 really do that much for Auron? --- Supporter of Megaman and Sonic |
| nobleIII | Posted 11/6/2006 1:56:43 PM | message detail |
| blah blah blah, all i hear are a bunch of excuses to TRY to keep putting Crono over Sonic, like always. |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 1:58:11 PM | message detail |
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Right now it depends on how Crono and Samus end up performing to me...
but if Crono stays constant, and Samus is underrated that much, AND
Auron hits 45% here, I'll have to say KH2 did something for him. I'm
still not giving it full credit for everything that happened in 2K3
though, the amount of some of those boosts are just stupid crazy, and I
will never believe a cameo in KH caused it, rather than the massive
overhaul of the site as it was prior to that year. --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 1:58:40 PM | message detail |
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is = isn't --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/6/2006 2:08:37 PM | message detail |
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And now Auron is even winning updates. Crazy..... --- Supporter of Megaman and Sonic |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 2:09:13 PM | message detail |
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This is absolutely bananas. Auron is gaining .04% an update consistently now... --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/6/2006 2:10:45 PM | message detail |
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Just to go back to afew posts ago for Squall/Auron..... Two questions: do you think Squall would hold up this well or better against Crono, and do you think Auron would hold up as well/better against Solid Snake as/than Squall? Yes and yes are my answers, which makes Squall/Auron even more difficult to answer. Then throw in that FFX > FF8 around here yet Leonhart in the KH series > Auron in KH2, and the match just feels like a doozy all over. Auron did better against Cloud in 2k3 than a post-KH2 Squall did in 2k4, for whatever that's worth, though Squall's shown he can dish out SFF (Tidus) and can hang with characters from bigger games (Vincent)... ...I'd take Squall and feel very iffy about it. --- Diddy did it. Diddy did it. DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?! |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 2:12:18 PM | message detail |
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I'm with you on that HaRR, I definitely answer yes in both of those
situations, and take Squall > Auron for the simple fact that Squall
has proven his strength for a while now, and I'll take Hero >
Supporting Cast any day of the week when a match is in doubt. Squall
just has too much in his favor. --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 2:18:17 PM | message detail |
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Auron just took a bite out of crime! --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 11/6/2006 2:19:10 PM | message detail |
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I love that Auron is doing so well. --- Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/6/2006 2:19:21 PM | message detail |
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Holy **** at Auron..... I think Mega Man regained a small bit of his favourite status in my mind, but round 4 should be VERY interesting on the male side. Although in typical NN fashion, the results will be nearly identical to what was projected last year in an anticlimatic end of the contest. lol noble nine TuRtLe ~~~ 81/88 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| Draco1214 | Posted 11/6/2006 2:22:00 PM | message detail |
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If Mega Man wins, it won't be easily. --- Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003 |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/6/2006 2:29:38 PM | message detail |
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I don't think any of the four males can be considered the favourite. Hopefully the matches will live up to their potential. --- Supporter of Megaman and Sonic |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/6/2006 2:29:55 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, I had 25% as a ceiling for Sub, which is safely above Scorp. He's looking to end way above that. That's...weaker than Master Chief 2k3. I've never understood the people who thought Halo 2 would make MC weaker. Right now it depends on how Crono and Samus end up performing to me... but if Crono stays constant, and Samus is underrated that much, AND Auron hits 45% here, I'll have to say KH2 did something for him. I'm still not giving it full credit for everything that happened in 2K3 though, the amount of some of those boosts are just stupid crazy, and I will never believe a cameo in KH caused it, rather than the massive overhaul of the site as it was prior to that year. Well, you can certainly believe that KH2 did something small for him without believing that it's the full source of his boost. He does have the biggest role of any FF character outside of Squall, and I think it's clear that at least some of Squall's boost came from KH/2, just from his matches against Snake. I think Mega Man regained a small bit of his favourite status in my mind, but round 4 should be VERY interesting on the male side. What? How? What could this match possibly have to do with Mega Man? A mystery fighting game resurgence that made both Ryu and Sub-Zero more popular? Crono boosted enormously, and Auron's KH2 boost is even more impressive than Riku's, but Sora's boost is even bigger than that? Kratos and Master Chief both got a "casual boost", so MM's actually looking awesome? Sometimes I wonder about you, BT. --- "Luckily, I brought my smart sword. It won't hurt anyone 'friendly'. In fact, it makes them talk!" - Princess Zelda |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/6/2006 2:33:41 PM | message detail |
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I maintain Mega Man has the worst chance of winning the male-side,
though him beating Solid Snake is plenty plausible. Crono was
rightfully the favorite going into this and is now looking at possibly
a toss-up with Sonic, and Solid Snake has enough potential to steal two
huge wins though he may fall short of getting even one...so hard to say. --- Diddy did it. Diddy did it. DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?! |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 2:36:15 PM | message detail |
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Also... I haven't seen it been brought up yet, but FFXII has sold 1.5
million copies since the 31st, and I'd say that game definitely has
it's closest ties with FFX. Anyone buy an influx of people coming for
FAQs? I think it could be helping him out slightly, RPGs are often FAQ
heavy games, and it's been just a few days since it's been released. --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| HoorayProxies | Posted 11/6/2006 2:37:00 PM | message detail |
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I agree with MM having the worst shot to win it all, but at the same
time I give him the ever so slight edge against Snake, Snake however
has far more potential. --- Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies! |
| TrueHeroComplex | Posted 11/6/2006 2:37:32 PM | message detail |
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It's obvious that Sonic is going to win now. I'm glad that people are
jumping on my Sonic Bandwagon. Took you long enough to see the truth. Sorry to the supporters of the other characters. --- A hero is a man who is afraid to run away. -The biggest Sonic fan ever.- |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/6/2006 2:37:41 PM | message detail |
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That's...weaker than Master Chief 2k3. I've never understood the people who thought Halo 2 would make MC weaker. I had Sub at 25% before the Contest, and MC a couple of percent higher (not as low as his 2003 value, but below his 2005 one). Of course that changed once Sub beat MC. --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Crono vs. Auron - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Auron (84/92) |
