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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 415

HaRRicH | Posted 11/4/2006 10:50:25 AM | message detail
He beat Ryu worse than Snake did!
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/4/2006 10:50:35 AM | message detail
...Or a little game called KHII could have a part in that.

Still, who do you take between Sora and Yoshi? Sora and Dante? Yoshi and Ryu? Ryu and Dante?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
WilhuffTarkin | Posted 11/4/2006 10:51:03 AM | message detail
Ryu has already beaten Dante before. 2003 I think...
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/4/2006 10:51:18 AM | message detail
And I think Mega Man's "massive underperformances" are more the result of Ryu and Sora sucking it up hard last year than anything else.

Yes, a structured decline is nonsense.
Ryu having a "bad year" and then improving for no reason whatsoever makes perfect statistical sense.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2006 10:51:21 AM | message detail
This year's sprite round Snake is like 2k3's match against Ryu. I thought we determined the background face shot negated any Solid **** funnyness?

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/4/2006 10:51:32 AM | message detail
And I think Mega Man's "massive underperformances" are more the result of Ryu and Sora sucking it up hard last year than anything else.

No one's using Sora 2k5, bucko.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/4/2006 10:51:34 AM | message detail
Ahh, 3 years ago. Dante's increased a bit since then.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/4/2006 10:52:17 AM | message detail
This year's sprite round Snake is like 2k3's match against Ryu. I thought we determined the background face shot negated any Solid **** funnyness?

It negated anything crazy happening like Frog did with it. It is still a given that Yoshi overperformed.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
WilhuffTarkin | Posted 11/4/2006 10:52:17 AM | message detail
Yeah, well. Just tossing it out there. =)
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/4/2006 10:52:33 AM | message detail
Ryu having a "bad year" and then improving for no reason whatsoever makes perfect statistical sense.

Hey, like Solid Snake !!
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2006 10:52:40 AM | message detail
I've seen several people mentioning "SNAKE BAT SORA WITH 66% LAST YEAAAAAAAAAR!!!!!!!!1111111111".

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/4/2006 10:53:33 AM | message detail
Oh, and I must express my happiness in seeing Final Fantasy X Yuna (finally!) against Zelda in the Elite Eight. She looks so much better there than she does in FFX-2.

Samus/Tifa is a good picture, and it should be interesting to see how the voting turns out based on it.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2006 10:53:53 AM | message detail
From HaRRicH
Ryu having a "bad year" and then improving for no reason whatsoever makes perfect statistical sense.

Hey, like Solid Snake !!


Hey, like Sonic!!

Seems to me as though characters can just have bad years due to being on the ass end of random fluctuations.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/4/2006 10:53:57 AM | message detail

Hey, like Solid Snake !!


And then MGS3 came along. That's a pretty good reason to boost.

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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
HaRRicH | Posted 11/4/2006 10:54:04 AM | message detail
It's not a given...possibility, sure, but nothing big.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/4/2006 10:54:09 AM | message detail
...Nobody here, Turtle.

Except maybe Smurf, but he doesn't count.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/4/2006 10:54:10 AM | message detail
This year's sprite round Snake is like 2k3's match against Ryu. I thought we determined the background face shot negated any Solid **** funnyness?

"We" didn't determine anything.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2006 10:54:58 AM | message detail
I don't get the love for Samus/Tifa. Sure it's a nice picture, but it's Zero Suit Samus. That isn't Samus at all. I'm tempted to vote Tifa just to spite that abortion of creative thought.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/4/2006 10:55:11 AM | message detail
Seems to me as though characters can just have bad years due to being on the ass end of random fluctuations.

Turtle's Footnote: EXCEPT MEGA MAN
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/4/2006 10:55:23 AM | message detail
Seems to me as though characters can just have bad years due to being on the ass end of random fluctuations.

Since 2003, Sonic has had 2 Advance games, Rush, Mega Collection, Gems Collection and Sonic Battle.

All well recieved. Nobody boosts for no reason.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/4/2006 10:56:04 AM | message detail
...Samus without her suit is still Samus. The suit doesn't make the Samus.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/4/2006 10:56:14 AM | message detail
I'm tempted to vote Tifa just to spite that abortion of creative thought.

You're such a tool, you know that? Vote for the character you like best, not the creativity behind the freaking picture. >_<
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
HaRRicH | Posted 11/4/2006 10:56:19 AM | message detail
MGS3? A game where he barely has a cameo, shooting apes? Gettin' a boost from THAT?

That's the craziest ****ing thing I've heard since Solid/Sora SFF.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2006 10:56:43 AM | message detail
Ryu?

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
zwong1 | Posted 11/4/2006 10:57:02 AM | message detail
Based on Sora's current % of 45.34% on constant Megaman...

Sora gets 32.24% on 2k5 Link and 35.17% on Blink.
Gordon Freeman gets 23.26% on 2k5 Link and 25.38% on Blink.
Phoenix Wright gets 19.44% on 2k5 Link and 21.21% on Blink.
Tingle gets 15.73% on Link 2k5 and 17.16% on Blink.

In other words...

Sora > 2k3 Sonic
Gordon Freeman > almost 3/4 of 2k2's field, and he triples his old self
Phoenix Wright > Frog
Tingle > Ganondorf

Taken from Janus5000, Keep on arguing Mega Man fans.

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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
dethfdddddh | Posted 11/4/2006 10:57:26 AM | message detail
A MGS 3 boost follows the influx theory in which more MGS fans come to the site. Subsistence might've done something for Snake this year, although it's probably not much.
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/4/2006 10:57:53 AM | message detail
You think Solid didn't Playstation SFF Sora.....or Squall..... Or Tanner?

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.. ^_^
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2006 10:58:53 AM | message detail
And Smurf, like I said, it has nothing to do with boosting or falling as much as it does getting screwed with random fluctuation. Ryu performed at his floor against a Bowser who performed at his ceiling.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/4/2006 11:00:03 AM | message detail
DS influx last year caused all Nintendo characters to boost. Bowsers was in proportion to everybody else.
Ryu performed consistently this year and last year.


You fail.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2006 11:00:55 AM | message detail
As for using Zero's loss as a reason for a massive MM drop, keep in mind that he and Luigi were close in the stats anyways, and Zero was likely overrated in 2k4 after his weird match against MM (which followed SFF to a T). Factor in NSMB and increasing Nintendo hype and you have a Luigi on steroids that will probably match Tifa's 2k5 performance on Sonic <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2006 11:01:50 AM | message detail
So you're saying that Bowser would comfortably beat Mega Man now?

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/4/2006 11:02:01 AM | message detail
You have Zero falling from 48% on Sonic to 46% on Luigi.
Wether it's a slow or immediate decline. It's a decline.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2006 11:03:05 AM | message detail
You have Zero falling from 48% on 2k3 Sonic to 46% on 2k6 Luigi.

It makes alot more sense if you include the years.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/4/2006 11:03:10 AM | message detail
Sora gets 32.24% on 2k5 Link and 35.17% on Blink.
Considering how strong the other KH characters have been, I think Sora could get 30% on Link this time.... >_>

Gordon Freeman gets 23.26% on 2k5 Link and 25.38% on Blink.

Only 23? Sora s the only one who can break 60% on Mr Freeman >_>

Gordon Freeman > almost 3/4 of 2k2's field, and he triples his old self
I would say this is possible, since Claire Redfield is the 12th strongest in the 2002 stats >_>

Tingle > Ganondorf

Huh?

But I still admit, Megaman turned from doing an impressive match to just an ok match. I still don't see him lossing to Snake.


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Supporter of Megaman and Sonic
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/4/2006 11:03:48 AM | message detail
Snake doesn't really need much to make a match with Mega Man competitive, even a constant one. What did Snake get between 2002 and 2003 (where he was presumably stronger)? MGS2: Substance. That's it.

People (and by 'people', I mean Turtle) are acting like this match was never supposed to be close to begin with. 52.35% is a close match, believe it or not. And characters have swung that margin all the time -- Link/Cloud 2004, Mario/Crono 2004 and 2005...it's not even fluctuating fodder we're talking about, these are elite matchups.

Snake doesn't need Mega Man to drop to win. But MM underperforming three straight times in a row is not exactly making me shake in my boots.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/4/2006 11:04:52 AM | message detail
He turned an ok match into a shameful disgrace.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
dethfdddddh | Posted 11/4/2006 11:05:00 AM | message detail
Ganon thing is a joke on his 2k4 ranking, Zylo...
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
Draco1214 | Posted 11/4/2006 11:06:33 AM | message detail
I think we should give Snake a free pass now. Honestly, 54% on Sora is downright embarassing, KH2 or not.
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Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2006 11:07:38 AM | message detail
I never said this would be a lock either way, I'm just pointing out that this probably IS still a constant Mega Man, going up against people who've had every reason to do better than expected.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/4/2006 11:08:29 AM | message detail
But I still admit, Megaman turned from doing an impressive match to just an ok match.

Exactly what on earth would qualify as a 'bad match' in your mind? Sora turning this into a Snake/Frog-style underperformance? Those only come along once in a blue moon.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2006 11:08:40 AM | message detail
I guess we'll have to wait until Crono/Auron to see what kind of effect KH2 really had, but even then it's sprite round Crono. Things will continue to look bad for Mega Man.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/4/2006 11:10:49 AM | message detail
I guess we'll have to wait until Crono/Auron to see what kind of effect KH2 really had, but even then it's sprite round Crono.

...because Vincent did so poorly on sprite round Crono.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/4/2006 11:11:13 AM | message detail
One last thing before I head out -- there were many people saying Sora would keep close with Solid Snake last year, so if you believe Solid SFF'd Sora and that Sora was THAT strong last year, then throw in KH2, Mega Man's not doing bad at all...

...but I'm done arguing for the sake of making Smurf twist more and more things.



UT/LSU, here I come...go Big Orange!
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/4/2006 11:11:46 AM | message detail
"I guess we'll have to wait until Crono/Auron to see what kind of effect KH2 really had, but even then it's sprite round Crono."

You know if Auron does well Smurf is just going to say Crono is declining.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
zwong1 | Posted 11/4/2006 11:11:47 AM | message detail
Accept it, Megaman has dropped this year.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/4/2006 11:12:36 AM | message detail
Heh, SmurfFAQs must've run out of posts.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
voltch | Posted 11/4/2006 11:12:40 AM | message detail
SFF?
MGS and KH are different franchises aren't they?
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
WilhuffTarkin | Posted 11/4/2006 11:12:49 AM | message detail
Accept it, Megaman has dropped this year.


You're starting to sound like ertyu.

"just accept it dante es beating yoshi."
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/4/2006 11:14:22 AM | message detail
When a match goes differently to the stats, people say it's an "overperformance" or "underperformance". When a match between 2 things go consistently unexpected, then it can earn the SFF label. See: FF7 Vs. Metal Gear Solid, Sephiroth Vs. Liquid Snake, Solid Snake Vs. Squall, Solid Snake Vs. Sora/
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/4/2006 11:16:16 AM | message detail
Sprite round Crono matters? Geez, If he can beat Mario with over 53% with a sprite, I'd hate to think what he could have done with a picture
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.